Forum Replies Created
Nice one, Engelo. Good (and a bit rare) to get recognized for honesty in this business
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
Sorry, Freckle…I truly envy the amount of free time you seem to have on your hands…I can only get to this thread about once a week or so. You're right, hot money is flowing into Japan, slowly tapering down to reasonable money. The masses, which move in knee-jerk reactions as usual, a typical behaviour most easily seen in currency and bond markets, as well as in equities, are selling one week and buying the next – but long-term players aren't phased –
Quote:'The Japanese share market will recover, though not straightaway, but in the months ahead', says Shane Oliver of AMP Capital Investors. In an interview to CNBC-TV18 – "Q: There is a complete chaos in the Japanese market at this point. How have you read the developments and would you be nervous? Do you think this will just pass? A: I think this will just pass. The Japanese share market rose 80 percent over six months. Any market that goes up that quickly will have a sharp correction at some point and this is it. Bull markets are often characterised by steady advances and as investors get themselves long, you just need little bit of bad news to cause a sharp correction. But when you look at the Japanese fundamentals, the market doesn't look overvalued to me. It is around fair value. But with the yen having fallen so far and likely to boost earnings over the course of the year, we will see the Japanese share market recovery resume. Not necessarily straightaway, but in the months ahead, Japanese share market will start heading back up again. Q: There has been no recovery in the Nikkei. Currently it is at the low point of the day, it closed down 7.3 percent, biggest fall in two years. Nikkei has run up around 40 percent in the past on a year-to-date basis. For today in particular, what exactly plagued the Nikkei? A: We don't know what everyone else is talking about. But usually when such things happen, you need a slight trigger to cause the market to come down and then people might be trying to take profits. The Japanese share markets are up 40 percent depending at which time horizon, but year to date it was up 40 percent. Over six months, it is up 80 percent. So, many investors would have been thinking well, we do not know if this is a top or not, but it might be wise to take profits. So, there is not a lot of consideration given the fundamentals, though the outlook is just a bit of blind sell off as some investors take profits…"Abe's pre-election rhetoric, as well, is slowly trickling down into manageable small chunks, in very Japanese fashion. I know you don't approve, but if he's to have any chance of selling this to the public, voters, and particularly old-skool Japanese "shachos" (CEOs/Presidents and their ilk), that's the only way he'll be able to go about it – Initial Economic Reform Details Announced
Quote:…tax cuts for companies that restructure or that invest in factories or equipment. The aim is to halt the downward trend in capital investment and boost such spending to 70 trillion yen annually over the next three years… Other priorities include subsidies to encourage more hiring and the establishment of special economic zones to promote deregulation and globalization of businesses, services and education…… boost female participation in the workforce by eliminating childcare waiting lists and by promoting three-year childcare leave…and also a rough idea of the next issues he'll tackle (again, in small, minute steps – Japan's over-protected farmers, for instance, are one of the last bastions of inefficiency that has to change to increase productivity – but he can't be seen to wildly lash and slice at their government-sponsored funding/spending/waste, or he'll lose his seat in a heart-beat) –
Quote:……agricultural reform and an export strategy for the sector, which was aimed at doubling farmers' income over the next decade…I'll leave you with something that I'm sure will leave you foaming at the mouth, I'm sure (just to tickle you, I admit – I love seeing you go off – can imagine you all red in the face and loving it
) – Stiglitz – "Japan is a Model, not a Cautionary Tale"Quote:Japan’s slow growth does not look so bad under close examination. Any serious student of economic performance needs to look not at overall growth, but at growth related to the size of the working age population. Japan’s working age population (ages 15 to 64) shrank 5.5 percent from 2001 to 2010, while the number of Americans of that age increased by 9.2 percent — so we should expect to see slower G.D.P. growth. But even before Abenomics, Japan’s real economic output, per member of the labor force, grew at a faster rate over the first decade of the century than that of the United States, Germany, Britain or Australia….if we broaden the range of metrics we consider, we see that even after two decades of “malaise,” Japan’s performance is far superior to that of the United States… Broader measures of performance are equally indicative. Life expectancy at birth (a good measure of the health of the economy) is a world-leading 83.6 years in Japan…second-highest in the world for attainment of university education, well ahead of the United States. And even in periods of slow growth, Japan has run its economy in a way that has kept a lid on the unemployment rate. During the global financial crisis, the rate peaked at 5.5 percent; in the two decades of its malaise, it never surpassed 5.8 percent…Though the structural policies have not been fully fleshed out, they are likely to include measures aimed at increasing labor-force participation, especially among women, and hopefully by facilitating employment for the large number of healthy elderly. Some have suggested encouraging immigration as well…Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
A wise man once told me not to place too much faith in MSM sensational headlines, but in any case –
Quote:Looks like the banks are setting up their backstops for when things turn to custard.. that's ominous…"No?!?! Banks looking after their own interests? IMPOSSIBLE! They're charitable organizations, the lot of them…aren't they???
Quote:…Abenomics appears to be in trouble…And from that very same opinion piece –
Quote:…To be sure, the project isn't doomed, and the BOJ and Prime Minister Abe won't soon give up…Japan's Economy Grows, Surplus Doubles
Quote:…Japan's economy has grown and its current account surplus doubled in April from a year earlier, in a fresh sign the government's aggressive policies to stimulate growth are paying early dividends. Bank lending in the country also posted its biggest annual rise in over three years…The current account surplus stood at 750 billion yen ($US7.70 billion), up 100.8 per cent from a year earlier and much bigger than a median market forecast of a 320 billion yen surplus…Hefty income gains including returns from Japanese investments abroad, which were boosted by a weak yen, more than made up for trade deficits, analysts say…Why the tendency to scream out "the sky is falling" every time someone has an opinion, Freckle? I understand the contrarian approach, but if anything, it seems as if the majority of analysts aren't too thrilled about Japan's prospects – shouldn't your philosophy dictate the opposite approach?
Japan's Economy Continues TurnaroundQuote:…gross domestic product rose at a 4.1% annual pace in the first three months of the year. On a quarterly basis, Japan's GDP increased by 1.0%… Abe's government will approve a series of reforms later this month to make labor markets more flexible, encourage immigration, bring nuclear power plants back online and draw more Japanese women into the workforce…Wow. Encouraging immigration…incorporating women into the workforce…amazing, it's almost what that delusional bloke from that forum was saying for the past 7 months or so…but no, that can't be. I KNOW all there is to know about the Japanese people and their mentality. No way this'll ever work!!!!! Or will it?…(can't say I'm too thrilled about his pro-nuclear policy though…hope the massive amounts of money Mitsubishi, Nippon Steel, Softbank and the rest of the Japanese giants have already poured into renewable initiatives will pose a strong-enough alternative – time will tell, as usual)
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
Great minds think alike. I'm sure that period will come for me too in a decade or three – my back's been telling me that for a while now (that is, unless they come up with those cool "ghost in the shell" type cradle-type ergonomic workstations, and one small enough to carry around in a suitcase and fit in hotel rooms. Then I'll probably work till I drop).
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
Yada, yada, yada, my numbers are bigger than yours, I don't think it'll end we'll therefore it won't, and anybody who doesn't agree with me is krugmans mother.
I have several words in several languages to describe your rhetoric, freckle, but they're all slowly gyrating towards something akin to a sandfly – this déjà vu is too much for me, you're right, I give up on playing with your jock strap
it's just oh so mighty (but Abe's, and the Japanese peoples' spirit's, are mightier still, in an awesome ninjaish/yodaish kinda way )Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
And as you heat up your pathetic leftovers of last year's discussion, for lack of new ammunition, reality continues to march outside the Frecklish ivory tower – http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-03/japanese-wages-gain-in-boost-for-abe-campaign-to-reflate-economy
Quote:…The effects of Abenomics are appearing little by little,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo and a former official at the central bank. “Wages, mainly bonuses, will probably be on an upward bias as corporate profits are recovering. The improvement in wages will probably support consumption.” Gross domestic product last quarter rose an annualized 3.5 percent, the biggest gain in a year, the Cabinet Office said on May 16. Private consumption, which makes up 60 percent of the economy, contributed 2.3 percentage points to the increase… Employment rose by 40,000 jobs in April, and the labor force participation rate was at 59.6 percent from 58.9 percent in March, according to the government statistics bureau…http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=26d1aaac-1383-49ea-8ad0-8b53789a97d1
Quote:…while a pessimistic view on the Japanese economy may become more widely accepted in the short term, as financial markets remain unstable and the likelihood of the Fed's tapering rise, the Japanese economic outlook remains better than expected since the regime change…the consensus economic outlook has been raised gradually and economic data released today justify the upgrade. Our growth forecast for 2013 has been raised by 0.9pp since October, from 0.7% to 1.6%. Thus, we judge it premature to change mid-term views on Japanese equity and USD/JPY even though they may be volatile for now…Pre-mature…immature…crying "wolf" and "the sky is falling"…gee, that stench is so familiar, I wonder who that reminds me of…? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/japan-s-economy-grew-more-than-forecast-3-5-in-first-quarter.html
Quote:…Housing is seeing a rebound as the central bank injects liquidity and purchases Real Estate Investment Trusts as part of its efforts. Residential investment reached the highest level in four years… A gauge of condominium sales in the Tokyo metropolitan area jumped 48 percent in March from a year before. Residential land prices in the nation haven’t risen on an annual basis since 1991, according to an index compiled by the Japan Real Estate Institute… Department store spending rose to the highest in a year in March, with consumer confidence climbing to a level previously seen almost six years ago. Seven & I Holdings Co., the owner of the 7-Eleven convenience-store brand, says a weaker yen and extra stores will boost profit to a record this year…But don't let reality keep you from your childish games, Freckle – give us another long-term 15 year spanning graph that'll predict the future with chilling accuracy regardless of reality – go awn naw! It's all about showing the world how much smarter you are than all of us, innit?
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
I'm serious, man – it's impossible to debate with someone who cancels out every potential solution to every challenge, every number or statistic that doesn't sit well with his world view as "unconvincing", "shallow", "meaningless in the long run" etc – as smart as these words all sound, they're as meaningless as the point they're trying to make – which is, as much as you try to hide it – "I think a disaster is coming, and no one will convince me otherwise". It's cool, you're entitled to your opinion, enjoy it!
Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone MeZiv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property
) – 
