Forums / Property Investing / Overseas Deals / Japan (and its Real-Estate market) Rides Again

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  • Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    zmagen wrote:

    enough.

    Not again…

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    And as you heat up your pathetic leftovers of last year's discussion, for lack of new ammunition, reality continues to march outside the Frecklish ivory tower – http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-03/japanese-wages-gain-in-boost-for-abe-campaign-to-reflate-economy

    Quote:
    …The effects of Abenomics are appearing little by little,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo and a former official at the central bank. “Wages, mainly bonuses, will probably be on an upward bias as corporate profits are recovering. The improvement in wages will probably support consumption.” Gross domestic product last quarter rose an annualized 3.5 percent, the biggest gain in a year, the Cabinet Office said on May 16. Private consumption, which makes up 60 percent of the economy, contributed 2.3 percentage points to the increase… Employment rose by 40,000 jobs in April, and the labor force participation rate was at 59.6 percent from 58.9 percent in March, according to the government statistics bureau…

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=26d1aaac-1383-49ea-8ad0-8b53789a97d1

    Quote:
    …while a pessimistic view on the Japanese economy may become more widely accepted in the short term, as financial markets remain unstable and the likelihood of the Fed's tapering rise, the Japanese economic outlook remains better than expected since the regime change…the consensus economic outlook has been raised gradually and economic data released today justify the upgrade. Our growth forecast for 2013 has been raised by 0.9pp since October, from 0.7% to 1.6%. Thus, we judge it premature to change mid-term views on Japanese equity and USD/JPY even though they may be volatile for now…

    Pre-mature…immature…crying "wolf" and "the sky is falling"…gee, that stench is so familiar, I wonder who that reminds me of…? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/japan-s-economy-grew-more-than-forecast-3-5-in-first-quarter.html

    Quote:
    …Housing is seeing a rebound as the central bank injects liquidity and purchases Real Estate Investment Trusts as part of its efforts. Residential investment reached the highest level in four years… A gauge of condominium sales in the Tokyo metropolitan area jumped 48 percent in March from a year before. Residential land prices in the nation haven’t risen on an annual basis since 1991, according to an index compiled by the Japan Real Estate Institute… Department store spending rose to the highest in a year in March, with consumer confidence climbing to a level previously seen almost six years ago. Seven & I Holdings Co., the owner of the 7-Eleven convenience-store brand, says a weaker yen and extra stores will boost profit to a record this year…

    But don't let reality keep you from your childish games, Freckle – give us another long-term 15 year spanning graph that'll predict the future with chilling accuracy regardless of reality – go awn naw! It's all about showing the world how much smarter you are than all of us, innit? ;)

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    I wish you'd take your time and dig up some decent stuff.

    First quote – wages and employment.

    Abe's begging business to give the worker a pay rise because he needs to compensate them for the cost of living increases they're getting wacked with but the SME's who employ 80% of the workforce don't have the margins to accommodate him. On the one hand he wants more productivity (more output for less) but wants business to up its labor costs in the face of tougher markets and already compressed margins. He can't have higher productivity and higher wages. One or the other. 

    The quote makes assumptions about wage growth but that's unlikely. What business would commit to a wage rise when they are only into their 6 month of this experiment and there is no real benefit apparent other than where hot money is pushing the market at certain points. Given volatility you'd be crazy to front run speculative top line growth. Insane stuff.

    Whats with the BS employment figures. Labor force participation has been dropping for years (mid 90's) because Japans population is contracting and to magnify that so is the workforce as the population ages. Last 5 employment figures; 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.1%, 4.1%

    JAPANESE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNCHANGED IN APRIL

    Anna Fedec anna@tradingeconomics.com  |  5/31/2013 12:50:15 AM

    Japan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent in April. The number of unemployed persons was 2.91 million, a decrease of 240 thousand or 7.6 % from the previous year.

    The number of employed persons in April 2013 was 63.12 million, an increase of 370 thousand or 0.6 % from the previous year.

    In April, compared to the previous month, the employment rose in Wholesale and retail trade, Transport and postal activities, Scientific Research and professional and technical services, Accommodations, eating and drinking services, Education and Medical, health care and welfare.

    Job losses were reported in Manufacturing, Agriculture and Forestry, Information and communications, Real estate,  Living-related and personal services and in Government services.

    Interesting to note where jobs are being lost and where they are increasing. There is a trend to service worker type jobs (tend to be low tech low paid) but losses in manufacturing are a concern given their reliance on manufacturing exports as the hub of their export revenue.

    Second quote – the Japanese economic outlook remains better than expected

    Who rights this stuff? Krugman? You have several countries preparing to go full on currency econ warfare about now. 

    Third quote – A gauge of condominium sales in the Tokyo metropolitan area jumped 48 percent in March from a year before.

    48%!!! Says it all really. Fuel injected turbo charged with nitrous market. It's sure to end well. What was the other one…. dept store spending is up. 

    Consumer spending has been rising steadily for the last few years but I suppose Abe's broken arrow policies will get credit for that.

    Consumer confidence… yep some early euphoria but the recent market antics have dented people's enthusiasm of late

    Quote:
    It's all about showing the world how much smarter you are than all of us, innit? ;)

    It's only you and me mate. I'm sure there's a few out there that could teach me a thing or two (I hope so anyway). I was hoping you'd stretch my intellectual rubber band a bit but its still as limp as an empty jock strap.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Yada, yada, yada, my numbers are bigger than yours, I don't think it'll end we'll therefore it won't, and anybody who doesn't agree with me is krugmans mother.

    I have several words in several languages to describe your rhetoric, freckle, but they're all slowly gyrating towards something akin to a sandfly – this déjà vu is too much for me, you're right, I give up on playing with your jock strap ;) it's just oh so mighty (but Abe's, and the Japanese peoples' spirit's, are mightier still, in an awesome ninjaish/yodaish kinda way ;))

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    C'mon Ziv you luv it. You've got a masochist streak a mile wide. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Fall In Japan Auto Sales Dashes Earlier Hopes Of Sales Turnaround

    A fall in Japan's auto sales in May dashed hopes that an increase in sales the previous month finally marked the start of a new upward trend amid growing hopes that the government's economic policies will breathe new life into slack auto demand.

    Last year, huge government subsidies had inflated sales, and now there is a price to pay, as there always is for subsidies.

    This can't be right. My mate Ziv says it's all a box of fluffy ducks and Abe san will be a legend soon.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    No, not really, he's just saying you haven't got a clue, same as him, and evidence points to the same uncertainty, nothing more and nothing less.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    zmagen wrote:
    No, not really, he's just saying you haven't got a clue, same as him, and evidence points to the same uncertainty, nothing more and nothing less.

    When I look back at the historical record and it shows…

    didn't work..

    didn't work again..

    bugger still didn't work that time..

    well I kinda come to the conclusion that's it's a 99.9% certainty it ain't gonna work this time.

    You on the other hand believe you haven't got a clue (I agree) and that after repeated failures it's not certain this time will be a failure also. If you don't have a clue it's a stretch to deduce the evidence is uncertain especially when precedent and examples exist.

    Your logic constantly fails you as in this case. You admit to not understanding (don't have a clue). If you don't understand then you lack the ability to judge if someone else does or not. That's like telling a mathematician his formula is wrong when you don't understand the formula.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Quote:
    When I look back at the historical record and it shows…didn't work..didn't work again..it's a 99.9% certainty it ain't gonna work this time…

    A ridiculous and extreme simplification of policies so varied and dynamic, with surrounding economic climates so complex and unique to their time, and implemented to so different extents and with such different measures, that it’s completely impossible to even begin to address this statement (but you know this of course, as most of your rhetoric is based on the assumption that if you pretend X corresponds with Y long enough and find a graph to illustrate your point, it’ll actually become true somehow – doesn’t quite work that way).

    Quote:
    You on the other hand believe you haven't got a clue…If you don't have a clue it's a stretch to deduce the evidence is uncertain especially when precedent and examples exist……You admit to not understanding…

    Sorry, maybe I was being too polite, so you somehow misunderstood the statement. Let me repeat it in clearer terms –

    I believe that neither the mighty Freckle, nor I, nor Abe, nor the flying spaghetti monster of planet X have any idea ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR GLOBAL AND LOCAL ECONOMIES – as a result, all that any of us can do (whether we’re running a family budget, a business budget, or a national budget) is to try and prepare the most adaptable, potentially beneficial and flexible plan that we can for an uncertain future.

    The main difference between us is that you try to pretend you do know what the future holds, and that if, again, you scream it loudly enough and paste enough pretty graphics into it, it’ll somehow make you an authority on the future.

    It doesn’t. You know squat beyond what you’re speculating (exactly the same as all of the above-mentioned individuals and a “few” others like them). It’s one thing to present information that supposedly points to a current event and try to claim it’s a result of a past one – not as clear-cut as you try to make it seem, but potentially doable, if debatable – but when you take that extra stretch and try to project into the future, you become ludicrous (not in the least because, your visions of the future are somehow always the same, in both their trends and their extremity, regardless of where or who in the world you happen to be criticizing at the time).

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    zmagen wrote:

    A ridiculous and extreme simplification of policies so varied and dynamic,

    You're kidding me right? 3 arrows consists of 1/ borrow more money to stimulate (QE) 2/ devalue the currency by monetising debt and 3/ market reform.

    The 3rd I can go with but it's not scheduled to start until 2015 at this stage providing they can get the reform in the shape they want it. My guess is that what they want and what they end up with will depend on what concessions he will have to accept in order to achieve some sort of outcome. In politics the end result of major reform rarely resembles the original goal. The MRRT in Australia and Obamacare in the US are prime examples of trying to challenge the corporate oligolpoly.

    QE and currency debasement… well nothing unique or dynamic about that either. Every major CB is chasing the same strategy with same result.

    But of course Japan is different

    Quote:
    with surrounding economic climates so complex and unique to their time, and implemented to so different extents and with such different measures, that it's completely impossible to even begin to address this statement

    Maybe for you but not for me. Economies have always been complex beasts if you want to dissect them down to minutia. However economics is based on simple fundamentals that even a child can understand. The only thing unique at this time is the scale of this baby – truly global.  Implementation – well that's not going to well. Yes the extent is different. A financial  banzai charge if ever I saw one. The measures hardly vary at all. They've learnt heaps off of the FED over the years. Trouble is they're trying to do similar things with disproportionate measures without a reserve currency backstop.

    Quote:
    you pretend X corresponds with Y long enough and find a graph to illustrate your point, it'll actually become true somehow – doesn't quite work that way).

    Does in the math's book I'm reading – perhaps you have a different maths book.

    Quote:
    I believe that neither the mighty Freckle, nor I, nor Abe, nor the flying spaghetti monster of planet X have any idea ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR GLOBAL AND LOCAL ECONOMIES – as a result, all that any of us can do (whether we're running a family budget, a business budget, or a national budget) is to try and prepare the most adaptable, potentially beneficial and flexible plan that we can for an uncertain future.

    Interesting assumption. You believe we're not smart enough to speculate with any accuracy on a future outcome yet you're quite happy to follow an amateur with no real experience or expertise at much at all and proclaim his plan worth supporting even though there exists plenty of historical evidence to, at the very least, suggest the chances of success are extremely low and that failure would almost certainly mean a considerably worse situation than exists now.

    Quote:
    The main difference between us is that you try to pretend you do know what the future holds,

    I don't pretend Ziv.  A more apt description might indicate I'm speculating based on past experience, historical evidence, sound money practice and the opinion of those more knowledgeable with supporting track records.

    Quote:
    and that if, again, you scream it loudly enough and paste enough pretty graphics into it, it'll somehow make you an authority on the future.

    Don't like those graphs do you Ziv. They constantly punch holes in your arguments that are difficult to refute.

    Quote:
    You know squat beyond what you're speculating

    I used to race pigeons when I was kid. Did alright too. I know a fair bit about them. I'm operating from a broad knowledgebase. 

    Quote:
    It's one thing to present information that supposedly points to a current event and try to claim it's a result of a past one – not as clear-cut as you try to make it seem, but potentially doable, if debatable – but when you take that extra stretch and try to project into the future,

    Why not. Almost all planning is based on predictive outcomes based on historical experience. You invest in property because you have historical experience and rules derived from that experience. The outcome is predictive based on the likelihood of known factors. Risk will form part of that assessment and provide you with odds of success and to what degree. You embark upon a strategy when either the odds favor you or the reward out weighs the risk.

    If you where a developer you wouldn't borrow money and start the process without first obtaining the requisite consents or changing the zoning. 

    Abe's plan is a simple breakout strategy but it hinges on market reforms that could take multiple govt terms to get over the line. So why go for the doctor now financially when you haven't got your zoning and consents in place first. 

    Strategies that are simple have the higher success rates. The more complex things get then your chance of success can deteriorate exponentially. Everything I've seen so far suggest a simple strategy that is being implemented in an ad hoc fashion without too much thought on how to deal with the volatile aspects of the plan. The BOJ is lurching from one crises to another trying to hold markets together but then admits it's communications with the market are disjointed and schizophrenic.

    Quote:
    you become ludicrous (not in the least because, your visions of the future are somehow always the same, in both their trends and their extremity, regardless of where or who in the world you happen to be criticizing at the time).

    Ziv I suppose I'm a contrarian. Contrarians tend to challenge mainstream thought and behavior from time to time. I believe we live in a time that may in the future be described as a watershed moment for human civilisation. We face huge challenges from population growth, global warming and what appears to be the end period of a macro economic cycle.

    We haven't shown in the past a propensity to handle significant events very well. The worst stressors tend to end in conflict. In the last decade there's little I can find that leads me to believe we are on top of our problems. In fact all I see is the opposite. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Seems I'm not alone in my opinion of Abenomics.

    Abe's "Deflation-Monster"-Slaying Third-Arrow Hints Underwhelm (lotsa pretty graphs for the non Zivites)

    UPDATE 1: Well that escalated quickly… Abe Speech ended-  NKY -450 from Abe spike highs, TOPIX -3% from Abe spike highs, JPY cracked back under 100 (80 pips from Abe spike), JGBs surging

    For about 2 minutes there it looked as if we were back on track and by the power of jawbone alone, Abe could lift Japan from its malaise.

    *ABE VOWS TO SLAY DEFLATION MONSTER WITH FISCAL, MONETARY POLICY

    *ABE CALLS GROWTH STRATEGY CENTERPIECE OF ECONOMIC POLICY

    *ABE WILL THOROUGHLY REMOVE ALL BARRIERS TO CORPORATE ACTIVITY

    But a mere 10 minutes after vowing to slay the deflation monster, Japanese stocks have retraced their spike gains and JPY has retraced its spike lower – but on the bright side – JGBs are bid.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    A comment I thought pertinent to this discussion.. from Joseph Stiglitz Was Right: Suicide

    In 2012, talking of the European Union’s austerity plans, Stiglitz had just one word to say. It was “suicide-pact”. He went on to say last year that imposing austerity on the citizens of the EU would do nothing more than lead to the collapse of the economies of those very same countries. Nobody listened to him then and nobody is listening to those words now.

    Politicians today in the EU are so hell-bent on retaining power that they have transformed themselves into economists, without any ability or reason. Politics is the governing element that will lead to the downfall of our economic structures because we are governed by flawed responses from people that have no idea what economics is about.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Blimey nobody saw that coming did they… well maybe a few of us.

    Profile photo of DubstepDubstep
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    Hey Freckle Juice,

    .

    I found an interesting note in the news link below, that over 7 million of Japan’s properties are vacant ( 10% )

    .

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-05/japans-oldest-community/4736256

    .

    That’s a pretty high figure !

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    For God's sake don't tell Ziv. He still thinks things are going gang busters over there.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Here's the real reason – cuz they're all haunted!!!   http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/25/us-japan-politics-ghosts-idUSBRE94O04820130525?feedType=RSS&goback=%2Egde_4682509_member_244297725

    Quote:
    A delay in Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife moving into their official residence, the site of past assassinations, has revived talk of ghosts in the corridors, prompting the government to deny any knowledge of hauntings. Abe has not moved into the prime minister's official residence for five months since he took power. Asked by an opposition lawmaker about the reported hauntings, the government issued a formal statement on Friday saying it was not aware of ghost sightings…

    Seriously, though, Dubs, we've covered this three threads ago, do try to keep up with the rest of the class – the reasons for this are ("Japan times" excerpt) –

    Quote:
    …Hidetaka Yoneyama, a senior fellow of Fujitsu Research Institute and an expert on issues related to unoccupied houses, said many of the houses in question are about 50 years old and were built during the period of rapid economic growth from the mid-1950s to the early 1970s. With the rising trend toward homes shared by only nuclear family members, the owners' children ceased living together and the house became vacant after the parents died. Even if children inherit the houses and land, the homes are usually eventually abandoned for such reasons as: — The legality of rights among family members is complicated and multiple heirs are involved. — The heirs live far away and do not have a good understanding of how to maintain vacant houses. — The heirs cannot afford to maintain the house. In some cases, if vacant houses are demolished, new homes cannot be built on the same land.The Building Standards Law stipulates that a plot of land with a building on it must in principle open onto a road at least four meters wide. A strip of land at least two meters wide must also connect to the road to allow for emergency vehicle access. But some plots with unoccupied houses do not meet these conditions. Also, if owners demolish abandoned houses and leave the land vacant, they will no longer be eligible for a reduction or exemption from the fixed asset tax for residential land. If a plot of land measures less than 200 square meters, the taxable value of the land alone would jump sixfold from the tax base before demolition of a vacant house on the land…
    Terryw wrote:
    My mother in law owns a terrace in Osaka and its been vacant for 7 years. 10min from Osaka station. MIL's sister also owns a terrace next door vacant for 10 years +. I ask them why not renovated and lease out and they say it would cost to much for the little return. Not worth it. However, in general I think things are beginning to pick up in Japan. The main problem was a lack of confidence I think. But now people are starting to see some economic hope again. This may lead to more spending and this would stimulate the economy
    Freckle wrote:
    Interesting. My Apologies to Ziv

    Pop quiz Monday morning, Dubs – don't let me catch you snoozing again!

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

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    Here's the real reason – cuz they're all haunted !!! Pop quiz Monday morning, Dubs – don't let me catch you snoozing again ! . . . . . Sorry Ziv, I will try to keep up ! . The haunting thing poses a question though, if a tenant passes away in your IP, does this mean you will not get any more tenants ? .

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    That all depends on the nature of the apparition…poltergeists, shades and class 3 spooks are covered by the "spectral" clauses of most insurance policies. But general moans, groans, clanking chains, spirits of dead ancestors and samurais are usually not. To be on the safe side, its always good to get an independent, objective analysis from your friendly neighbourhood ghostbusters.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of DubstepDubstep
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    So you claim on your insurance if you have these spookies in your IP ?

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    No, these guys definitely fall under "dead ancestors/samurais". You're lagging behind again, Dub. I'll have to ask you to visit mr Abe's office after class.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

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