All Topics / Overseas Deals / Japan (and its Real-Estate market) Rides Again

Viewing 20 posts - 61 through 80 (of 249 total)
  • Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    Quote:
    .I truly envy the amount of free time you seem to have on your hands.

    Probably only worked 6 months in the last 2 years and only 1 month in the last year… can get a bit boring at times.

    I laughed when I read Stiglitz's essay. I suppose you can make any economy look good if you ignore the mountain of debt hiding in the back room. US$12T or Y1Quadrillion. Making comparisons to the US is like apples and oranges.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523

    Yes, but it's not just "making an economy look good" – these "feelgood" vibes are actually directing money into the country. Consumer and business confidence aren't uselses airy-fairy measures – they show potential for future growth as much as any other figures. Speaking of potentially "good vibes" that boost growth, here's another recent one – Coutts are also banding in with Soros and GS in betting on Japan – Coutts Push Japan in Private Wealth Singapore Summit

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    Ziv you need to dig a bit deeper. Coutts (AKA Bank of Scotland) is up to its eyeballs in BS. UK governments been bailing their backsides for a while now and they're still a dog of a business if any of Reggie Middleton's exposes on Irish banks and the RBS connection is anything to go on. If memory serves me correctly they're ranked number one dodgey bank in the UK. When the likes of a GS and RBS start telling you things are all roses it's time to run a mile. They'll be flogging Jap related financial products to anyone daft enough to buy them.

    They're bearish property but bullish Japan …. ????

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    Looks like Abe's days are numbered. He's on the slippery slope even though his popularity is high the trend seems clear. Reversing that trend would take a small miracle I think.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523

    "What you talkin' 'bout, Willis?"

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324251504578581370843445726.html

    Quote:
    With polls predicting an almost certain victory for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party in a parliamentary election later this month, the focus is on whether the premier will treat victory as a mandate to push ahead with bold measures seen as vital for economic growth.

    Six months into office, Mr. Abe continues to enjoy a high approval rating of around 60%, backed by support for his so-called Abenomics economic-policy of easy money, heavy spending on public works and pro-growth measures…

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    He was in the low 70's. He's goner. Writings on the wall. When you need teen bands, sumo and FB to get by things are definitely looking sad. I doubt if half his followers are old enough to vote. ;-)

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523

    Good luck with that notion, Freck ;)  you might want to hedge your bets a bit, if you truly believe all of what you just wrote.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    Gotta luv yor optimism. And the band played on…..

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523

    Not sure what optimism has to do with anything? The fact that I happen to agree with what Abe's doing at the moment on most fronts has nothing to do with my backing for him or any other PM – not sure why you assume that. I support people who's thinking and actions concur with my own – if Abe's replaced by someone who has similar policies, they'll have my equal support (moot point, since I don't intend to become a Japanese national, so my "support" is purely theoretical in the political sense).

    my optimism is due to faith in the Japanese mentality and approach to life – as well as in some particular policies the current administration happens to be pursuing – and is a very fleeting thing (for example, some of Abe's china-related rhetoric has very little support from my end).

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    I'm glad Abe's not a doctor. His medicine is all feel good stuff. Japan is like a patient with a gangrenous leg. You can juice him up and make him feel good but underneath the bandages the rot continues. At some time in the future they'll realise they should have chopped the leg off when they had a chance. Soon they'll be chopping both legs off just to save the patient and then it'll probably be too late. 

    CB's have injected trillions into the global economy and what do we have to show for it after 6 years. Zip. Actually less than zip. Global GDP growth is near zero in mature economies, the same in emerging economies and the BRICs (mainly China) who contribute the over 80% of GDP growth are fading fast. 

    I have no idea how a debt strapped economy that is losing its competitive edge in almost all respects has any hope of digging itself out of this hole with even more debt in a shrinking global economy. 

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523

    Alright, I'll bite – please lay down the freckle formula for a new and improved Japan. I'm all ears.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    Sorry for the delay Ziv. In the last week of packing and loading a container.

    Japan's pathway to economic stability has always been to reduce deficits and get its debt down to manageable levels and eventually reduce to a modest percentage of GDP. Japan worked on the premise that it could outgrow its debt in good times. It failed miserably on that score and is now stuck in a situation where the tail wags the dog.

    There is no other solution to a debt problem other than to reduce and eliminate debt. Krugman and few other brilliant economists have tried to convince us that debt doesn't matter. The Japanese just need to spend moar, borrow moar and all will be alright. Hasn't worked in 30 years and never will. 

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523
    Freckle wrote:
    He was in the low 70's. He's goner. Writings on the wall. When you need teen bands, sumo and FB to get by things are definitely looking sad. I doubt if half his followers are old enough to vote. ;-)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23396234

    Quote:
    …Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has won a majority in the upper house, exit polls suggest.

    His Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner New Komeito were set to get at least 71 of the 121 seats being contested, broadcaster NHK projected.

    This would give him control of both houses of parliament for the first time in six years…

    Any other graph-adorned predictions we should take note of?

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680
    zmagen wrote:
    Freckle wrote:
    He was in the low 70's. He's goner. Writings on the wall. When you need teen bands, sumo and FB to get by things are definitely looking sad. I doubt if half his followers are old enough to vote. ;-)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23396234

    Quote:
    …Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has won a majority in the upper house, exit polls suggest.

    His Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner New Komeito were set to get at least 71 of the 121 seats being contested, broadcaster NHK projected.

    This would give him control of both houses of parliament for the first time in six years…

    Any other graph-adorned predictions we should take note of?

    He was always predicted to take the upper house short of some major catastrophe. Once he has total control it will be interesting to see what crazy schemes he and his party will come up with next. Globally the systemic cracks continue unabated. 

    Japan's government revenues are 30.56% of GDP while its government spending is 40.35% of GDP. Thus Japan's government runs a surplus of -8.92% of GDP. Net government debt is 126.41% of GDP.

    Debt foreva!!  Yep that'll work…

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523
    Freckle wrote:
    …He's goner. Writings on the wall…

    Freckle wrote:
    …He was always predicted to take the upper house short of some major catastrophe…

    Love you, Freckle, really do. :)

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    An interesting blog using good, bad and destructive debt as a tool  to understand Japan's past and current fiscal policy with a concise easy to follow description of Japan's predicament and its likely outcome

    Japan; from quagmire to Abenomics to collapse! Part I-3

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523

    https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-outlook-on-Japans-real-estate-sector-to-stable–PR_277176?goback=.gde_2060426_member_243882374

    Quote:
    Moody's Japan K.K. has revised the outlook on Japan's real estate industry to stable from negative. The change in the sector outlook reflects the appreciation in the values of commercial properties, as well as the increasing rents for new office buildings and the stable rents for properties such as logistics, retail and residences… …hopes that the country's inflation rate will increase. This expectation has in turn boosted property prices, a trend Moody's believes will continue over the next 12-18 months… …Furthermore, because the supply for new office space is likely to remain limited for the next two to three years — especially for high quality and earthquake-resistant buildings –demand for Japan's leasing market for newly constructed office space will be strong…

    As mentioned, our favourite residential investment areas (Fukuoka, Kumamoto and the rest of Kyushu) have already gone up 30-50% in our bracket (entry level, older blocks, studio and one-room apartments built 1974-1995) – meaning, deals that were available at $20,000 total purchase costs in those areas are now at $30,000 and rising. Rents have risen accordingly so far, so yields are still there to be had, but entry levels have gone higher. The $20,000 deals can still be found, but not in the top areas anymore (now finding them in Kitakyushu, Kurume, and occasionally Nagasaki). Other high yield locations that can be had for $30,000 and up are the outskirts of Kobe, Toda (which is a small town adjacent to Tokyo on the NW side – still virtually unknown to foreigners, but closer than either Kawasaki or Yokohama, surprisingly enough), and Sapporo city in Hokkaido – although, deals there are being snatched within a matter of days or sometimes hours, so feels like prices will return to their pre-3/11 levels in no time – most likely the drop there is due to the drop in international tourism post-Fukushima – which is now beginning to taper off, as tourists return to the area. As more and more banks, pension funds, and high-net worth families and REITs from Singapore and Hong-Kong have also been increasingly active in the last few months, it's more than likely things will continue to climb, at least for the next 2-4 years, as Moody's suggest – our impressions are similar.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523

    Abe keeps heading in all the right directions – http://ajw.asahi.com/article/economy/AJ201307010067

    Quote:
    Central government bureaucrats have criticized Hiroshi Mikitani as a selfish businessman and tried to block his attempts at changing the status quo. But the chairman and CEO of Rakuten Inc. has found that his requests have been quickly satisfied by one figure in government: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

    Since they first had a serious discussion on Nov. 19 last year, Abe has named Mikitani to an important government panel, and his administration has pushed forward sales of over-the-counter drugs on the Internet as well as online campaign activities starting with this summer’s Upper House election…

    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/06/13/business/abe-vows-to-draw-up-tax-steps-by-fall-to-boost-business-investments/#.UhqoJ0B-PmQ

    Quote:
    …The tax breaks would target efforts by firms to replace old facilities with efficient and state-of-the-art ones, said the draft of the strategy that the Cabinet plans to endorse…adding they would be also designed to prompt the exploitation of new markets…

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
    Participant
    @zmagen
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 523

     

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,680

    Wolf Richter writes some interesting stuff re Japan. He's considerably more objective and realistic than you Ziv even though he is married to a local girl, has family there and speaks the lingo. 

    His Blog at Testosterone Pit  makes for interesting reading.

    “Limited Freedom Of Speech” For Japanese Bureaucrats To Cover Up The “Dire Fiscal Condition”

    He came out and said what no one in the Japanese power structure is allowed to say. It was outright blasphemy against the new religion of Abenomics that rules the Japanese media and governmental thinking, and even the foreign mainstream media. Abenomics wouldn’t solve Japan’s fiscal and economic problems, he said. And the recent governmental outlook to that effect was way too rosy.

    That man is Kazumasa Oguro, formerly Senior Economist at the Ministry of Finance’s Policy Research Institute. He’d joined the MOF in 1997, but apparently, he is a free spirit that didn’t want to be reined in, and so he quit in 2008 and moved on to the Institute for International Policy Studies. He is now an Associate Professor of Economics at the Hosei University and a consulting fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade & Industry.

Viewing 20 posts - 61 through 80 (of 249 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic. If you don't have an account, you can register here.