[Ziv Nakajima-MagenParticipant@zmagenJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 523]

October 19, 2013 - 1:46 am

Freedom of hate speech? Not really. As with all things Japanese, the wheels move slowly, but move nonetheless – 

Court recognizes anti korean activities as racist, illegal – fines activists 12 million JPY

Immigration reforms, similarly, are moving, slowly but surely, in a pace well calculated to allow the government to implement them without being thrown out of office – which is exactly the way things should be done here, due to the mentality of the vast majority of the population. I know the west likes "quick fixes" about as much as you like demagoguery and crisis alerts, freckle, but for better and worse, it doesn't work that way here. Bummer, I know

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October 11, 2013 - 2:58 am

"Pandering", "spruiking", you seem to have a very low opinion of anyone who has any dealings with clients, regardless of their honesty or transparency. Been stung by a dodgy salesman, have we? Poor freck…practice your DD skills some more, you'll be fine.

the vast majority of our clients are actually hard working or retired mom and dad types, like ourselves. But we don't discriminate, and we don't tend to automatically assume anyone who's done well for themselves is necessarily corrupt, unlike some poor paranoid souls.

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October 10, 2013 - 11:51 pm

Ain't no troll like a morning troll. would love to stay and chat, but have to head out to the airport to meet a Swiss banker who's bringing a group of Singaporean and Thai "filthy rich", as you rudely label them, to invest in the world worst economy. Maybe later, good luck with the boredom till then. (With any luck, our client database may just increase to six. I'll be sure to mention freckle said they should get back on the plane and head back home as soon as I see them. After all, he knows best.)

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October 10, 2013 - 9:30 pm

Aaaawww, touched a sore spot, have we? Grow up, freckle, the world sucks – not everybody thinks you're a genius. Love how consumer confidence is a good indication when it slips, but a sows ear when it's high, incidentally. Hypocrite much?

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October 10, 2013 - 10:30 am

"Slipped" is the right term indeed – I think it's quite a manageable slip, considering July's numbers – 

JAPAN CONSUMERS HAVEN'T BEEN THIS CONFIDENT IN 7 YEARS

sorry, freckle, doing my best to keep up with your couch commentary, but busy here in the real world, with all the "idiots" who have been netting handsome profits here in Japan while you moan and groan from your precious metals hoard stash  

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October 1, 2013 - 3:00 am

Love Milano too, gorgeous city – although the area around Centrale is starting to scare me, and will probably get worse in coming years. As for their economy – yup – can't wait to nab a couple of properties when the **** finally hits the fan – any day now, it would seem.

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September 19, 2013 - 9:35 am

Been looking at Italy for a while now, so can tell you this much – 

1) no citizenship is required, but they will need to apply for a tax ID, most likely in person

2) they can handle all transactions through a "Notaio" (equivalent of notary public or judicial scrivener) – generally speaking, lawyers aren't necessary – however, we met a great and reliable lawyer in Milano on our last visit, who is very reasonably priced and will be happy to assist – she also knows alot about the property market, at first glance.

3) prices there are WAY over the top, considering the state of the economy – we dropped the idea for now, mostly because it seems like their bubble is due to burst, particularly with the stale mate they had in the last elections and the resurfacing of berlusconi and his cronies

4) tenants are very problematic job and payment wise, far more so in recent years. Not so many apartment trashes and criminal elements like you'd find in the US, but severe issues with long term residencies

5) property management is largely unheard of – you'll need to educate your realtors to manage the properties for you, they'll want to charge you alot for it, and are inexperienced, so will most likely not be very good at it

6) absolutely do NOT stray further south than Rome – it gets real iffy down there, with horrible tenants, professionals, and some of Europe's highest unemployment rates.

Having said all of that, my wife loves the place, and hasn't forsaken the idea of investing there – so if we end up getting some experience under our belts will be more than happy to share, and possibly expand our services to facilitate buyers and proxy services there, as we do in japan – so stay in touch if you want, may have more to report down the track.

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September 19, 2013 - 9:26 am

Awww, freckle, coming from you, that's bordering on a compliment.

if you do follow parts 2 and 3, you'll realize that I'm using us and our market merely as an example on how to setup your investing infrastructure IN YOUR MARKET OF CHOICE. Obviously, I refer to where I operate and am experienced in, as these are my best points of conjunction. I could discuss Singapore, Germany or Switzerland, as they all have similarities business environment-wise, but I have no experience there, and I don't tend to pretend to know what I don't (as some do). Rest assured, when I'll have experience on those markets, I'll use them as examples too.

in any case, I'm glad you liked the piece!

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September 18, 2013 - 10:43 pm

Thanks, Engelo, glad you liked it. Completely agree, team is essential – covering it extensively in parts 2 and 3 of the series – stay tuned!

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September 17, 2013 - 3:05 am

Quote:

Bonus payments are up but regular monthly payments are down…

As demonstrated above, the total average PER PERSON is up – they're simply doing it via irregular payments, to prevent a non-reversible premature raise – cautious, but works.

Quote:

…Total wages paid out are also trending down due to a shrinking work force

Has nothing to do with the fact that total wages average per person is rising, as requested by Abe and performed, to the best possible extent cautious corporate management can allow themselves to do. As for the shrinking work force and the plan to counter this phenomena – already discussed to death above, no point in re-iterating.

Quote:

…positive spike on pull frward spending by consumers to save on the new tax. You get a recession afterwards…

Maybe, maybe not. Here it's coupled with the best business sentiment and increase in household spending the country's seen in close to 20 years, so I think the result will be quite different. In any case, we're both speculating here, yourself included.

Quote:

…Fukushima is the fly in the ointment. Things don't get sorted there the Olympics could be a disaster…

We're in complete agreement there. 

Quote:

…Economically it may actually produce very little… no evidence to suggest any Olympics had ever resulted in a positive cost benefit…

I'm not talking about a positive cost benefit, I'm talking about production, business and individual sentiment, a boost to international relations and business connections, and a host of other benefits, that may be non-quantifiable directly (kinda like cancer rates 40-50 years post-nuclear spillage), but are nonetheless quite tangible and positive for the economy and the people that make it or break it.

Quote:

…Since the 90's Japan has rung more productivity out of the system than anyone else. There is a point where no more or little productivity remains to be realised…

Complete bollocks, pardon the expression. While Japan's machinery, automotive and robotics industries are indeed highly productive, it's agricultural, financial, energy, retail and electronics sectors are anything but. Do some reading, please. 

Quote:

Keep looking for someone credible enough to counter Bass's arguement…

Don't need to, the market itself is doing the talking and proving him wrong, as the host of "smarter-than-thou" would be speculators that came before him and coined the "widowmaker trade" phrase have proven time and time again. These days everybody who's worth their mettle, from Soros to GS, are voting with their dollars against his half-baked gamble.

Quote:

…I don't necessarily agree with everything Bass says. No one is right all the time about everything…

OMG, a crack in the Freckle "know it all" facade??? What's the world coming to???

Quote:

…This debate is fairly simple. Can you expand debt faster than income indefinitely and still survive

No, that's not what the debate's about at all, since no one's trying to "expand debt faster than income" – what Japan's administration is doing is attempting to INVEST in its growth and kick-start an economy that's been dormant for two decades, with wiser policies than those that have been tried (and failed) here, and in many other parts of the world as well, whether you like it or not. But you're so horrified at the idea of being wrong, that you (and others like you) keep trying to dumb down the debate to "Spend, spend, spend". In spite of this, it gets alot more complex and carries alot more merit than that.

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September 17, 2013 - 1:23 am

While US service providers may be as you guys claim, I find that our US clients are some of the nicest, friendliest, chattiest folk around , to be honest! Maybe they're delighted at being able to finally build a real relationship with a professional, rather than being treated like a cash barrel with legs? 

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September 13, 2013 - 10:03 am

Thanks, for sharing – I stand corrected re Kyler. As mentioned, Jay's the only one I've personally dealt with, and I also found him to be reliable and forthcoming.

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September 9, 2013 - 7:02 am

Quote:

…UBS AG analysts said Japan’s shrinking labor force means salaries need to rise even more to prevent total wages from contracting and damping consumer spending capacity. The aggregate wage level may not rise even with wages growing 1 percent per worker…

Funny you should choose this article, titled "Japanese Wages Gain in Boost for Abe Campaign to Reflate Economy" Maybe you missed the core of the article, which reads –

Quote:

Japan’s wages rose by the most in a year in April, a gain that supports Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign to reflate the world’s third-biggest economy after 15 years of falling prices.

Monthly wages including overtime and bonuses rose 0.3 percent from a year earlier

Also interesting how you don't mind quoting the same "BS MSM" articles that you so venomously attack when I quote. Hypocrite much? Here's another, more thorough analysis of the phenomenon  – basic essence – employers are cautious in raising base wages, which are far harder to scale down, but are more than compensating with bonus and overtime payments (which were unheard of in Japan until a couple of years ago) – Japan's Wage Data not All that Gloomy

Quote:

…nominal wages, or total earnings, inched up 0.4%, marking the second consecutive monthly gain. Behind the rise was an increase of summer bonus and overtime pay, brought about by a recovery in corporate profits and production.

Many economists predict the trend will continue.

“Since a recovery of industrial output looks set to gather pace, non-regular wages including winter bonuses are expected to go up,” said Kenji Yumoto, vice chairman of the Japan Research Institute. The weak yen should boost exporters’ earnings and also help the service sector as it draws more overseas visitors to Japan, Mr. Yumoto said…

Speaking of visitors to Japan and industrial output, we just heard of the 2020 olympics to be held in Tokyo – yet further boosting to both. As for Bass – more and more of the world's economists are noticing the major missing links in his theory of doom and gloom – Cooler Heads: The Rebuttal to Kyle Bass' Japan Market Meltdown Scenario / JP Morgan's Jesper Koll & Masaaki Kanno

Quote:

…Koll challenges Bass’s “dump yen assets” call on analytical grounds.  Bass has not fully thought through some of his points, or has ignored contrary indications.  While Abenomics–with its 2% inflation target and further Keynesian deficit spending stimulus–could increase pressure for higher interest rates, there will be no crisis, and there may not be higher rates.  JGBs remain an attractive asset.  Koll suggests:

•Rising interest rates would of course raise debt service costs for all borrowers, and especially the hugely indebted government.  But they would enable lenders–including household depositors–to charge higher rates on new debt and raise returns on non-fixed rate debt.   Since net stock of private savings is larger than the net stock of public sector liabilities, Koll reckons that the overall effect on the economy would be positive.

•Rising interest rates would not spell large losses for Japanese financial institutions because these institutions’ bond–and especially JGB–portfolios are largely held to maturity, avoiding the requirement to be marked to market.  The institutions would have no incentive to sell, and ample incentive to hold the JGBs [the weighted average duration of which they have in any event been shortening to well under five years–Harner].

•As to who is or would buy JGBs, the answer for the present and foreseeable near term future is:   the Bank of Japan.  BOJ is already committed to buying the entire debt out to a maturity of three years and a new governing board to be installed in April may extend the range to three to five years.  Interest rates will rise only as much as BOJ will allow.  This is why foreigners and domestic institutions are still buying the bonds.

•Whether or not significant inflation develops in Japan depends on productivity.  Significant increases in productivity could fully mitigate inflationary pressures.

•There is plenty of room in Japan’s economy for raising productivity.  Agriculture, in particular, has absymal productivity that could easily be raised through deregulation.  Land policy that affects housing is another.  Health care is another.   Indeed, deregulation is needed throughout the economy. The Abe administration must implement real deregulation, so that private investors put their savings and capital to work, by building new factories, new hospitals, and so forth….

And meanwhile – Japan's GDP Revised Up – AGAIN 

Quote:

Japan’s economy expanded much faster than initially expected in the second quarter, adding to growing signs a solid recovery is taking hold and heightening the case for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to proceed with a planned sales tax hike next year.

A marked improvement in capital expenditure led to an upward revision in April-June gross domestic product (GDP) to an annualized 3.8% expansion from a preliminary 2.6% increase, data released by the Cabinet Office showed on Monday.

The expansion, which roughly matched a median market forecast for a 3.7% increase, underscores the strength of Japan’s recovery and boosts the chance the government will proceed with a two-staged increase in the sales tax.

It was the third straight quarter of increase following a 4.1% growth in January-March.

On a quarter-to-quarter basis, GDP growth was revised up to a 0.9% increase from a preliminary 0.6%.

Japan emerged from recession in 2012 and data for much of this year has shown the benefits of Abe’s reflationary policies and the BOJ’s aggressive stimulus…

Japan's Quarterly Commercial Real-Estate Sales Soar 78%

Quote:

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's plans to radically overhaul the economy, known as 'Abenomics' involve aggressive monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and structural reform, and have so far worked to dramatically boost economic sentiment in the country.

In particular, the Bank of Japan's decision to bolster its holdings of real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) by 30 billion yen ($301.6 million) to 140 billion yen in 2013, as part of its $1.4 trillion asset purchase program unveiled in April, has provided a strong boost to the commercial real estate market, the report found…

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September 4, 2013 - 1:38 pm

Dude, you're contradicting yourself again – First you say

Quote:

Interesting to note Asian emerging economies are crashing at the moment. India and Indonesia are in big trouble.

, then you immediately go to

Quote:

World's 10 biggest economies, India at No 3 Japan 4th!!!

Well, here's the real picture about India – New York Times‎ – Rupee Continues Decline on New Evidence of Weakness in Indian Economy

Quote:

…An HSBC survey of purchasing managers at manufacturers across India, released on Monday, showed them to be their gloomiest since March 2009, at the bottom of the global economic downturn…

Financial Times – India economy: gloomy forecasts

Quote:

…India may well be facing its worst economic crisis since the 1990s and confidence is worryingly low. To make matters worse, on Friday the government announced the weakest economic growth data in four years with GDP expansion down to 4.4 per cent in the three months to June. In response, several banks have slashed their growth forecasts, some by over 1 percentage point. It’s looking pretty grim…

Ziv Magen, btw, said it as early as a year ago, and then a few more times – here's the last time I said it, before I grew bored (glad to know the world's caught up) – http://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2012/11/23/corruption-black-money-in-india-australiaus-court-foreign-investors/ India is corrupt, unstable, and has absolutely nothing going for it aside from sheer numbers of (starving) people on the street – to compare it's economy, business environment or homeless situation (what a joke!) to Japan is utter nonsense – India's a cesspool of poverty, with unfathomable rich/poor gaps – while Japan's one of the world's most socially equalized countries, in spite of your blabber (I strongly suggest you abandon that particular line, because you're going to embarrass yourself, trust me on this one). But yes, the world's second largest country by population has, statistically, managed to finally overshoot Japan, which has 10% of its population. Ra bloody ra. Your point? Incidentally, when did you move from "Japan is doomed" to "Asia is doomed"? Or is this part of the general "the world is doomed" theme? Here's what people are saying about Japan these days (I know, I know, they're all idiots) – LA Times – Japan's Economy Bouncing Back, Offering Model for US 

Quote:

…The shock-therapy policies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have helped Japan's economy expand for three straight quarters at a pace faster than that of the United States.

Its stock market has surged more than 50% in less than a year. Leading automakers and even long-struggling electronics firms such as Sony Corp., beaten down by Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co., are reporting a jump in profits…

Guardian – Japan's Pump-Primed Recovery Proves US Deficit Hawks Wrong 

Quote:

…The employment to population ratio, the percentage of adults who are working, increased by 0.6 percentage points in Japan between the last quarter of 2012 and the second quarter of 2013. By comparison, in the United States it rose by just 0.1 percentage point. The 0.5 percentage point difference would translate into another 1.3m jobs in the United States – not bad for six months work.

At this point, America's deficit hawks are jumping up and down screaming that the boost to Japan's economy is just a "sugar high", and that it will soon face a horrible collapse as payback. Of course, anything can happen in the future, but we just don't see any real evidence of the deficit hawks' doom story as of yet.

If Japan's economy is about to burst under its huge debt load, the financial markets apparently aren't wise to the trick. The interest rate on ten-year Japanese treasury bonds is less than 0.8%. This means that investors are putting tens of trillions of yen on the line, betting that Japan's government and economy will not implode.

The low interest rates translate into to a low interest burden. Japan's net interest payments on its debt last year were under 0.9% of GDP. (The payments would be even lower if we deducted the money refunded from the central bank for interest it received on its bond holdings.) By comparison, in the United States, interest payments were over 1.0% last year; and in the bad old 1990s, interest payments exceeded 3.0% of GDP. Even if interest rates soared in Japan, this would be offset by a plunge in the market value of the country's debt.

In short, it is hard to tell a story about how Japan will suffer as a result of the measures its government is taking to boost growth and create jobs. These policies are 180 degrees at odds with the deficit fixation that dominates Washington policy debates. The deficit hawks have made enormous progress in reducing the government deficit over the last few years. The 2013 deficit, measured as a share of GDP, is less than 40% the size of the peak deficits in 2009 and 2010.

However, the sharp pace of deficit reduction has meant less growth, fewer jobs, and more unemployment. That might mean that millions of people won't have enough money to support themselves and properly care for their children…

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September 4, 2013 - 12:57 pm

Quote:

…You'll have to point to a reference re Bass's fund down 29%…

http://www.businessinsider.com/whoa-kyle-basss-performance-really-is-that-disastrous-2012-5

Quote:

…copy of his performance update May 3.

From the report…

JMOMF Tranche H

January 2012 -7.89%

February 2012 +6.84%

March 2012 +2.13%

April 2012 -29.32%

 

Year to date 2012 -28.96%

Inception to date -60.77%…

And here's another – http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/05/kyle-bass-japan-macro-fund-down-29-for-april/

Quote:

…He has purchased Credit default swaps and shorted Japanese Government bonds, according to statements and people familiar with the matter.

So far the trade has been going in the opposite direction. According to our source, Bass’ Macro Opportunities Master Fund is down 32% in April alone.

January performance was -8%, February 7% and March 2%, and year to date -29%.

Since inception in July, 2010 the fund is down 61%…

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August 30, 2013 - 6:03 am

Not sure what you mean by that, cynicism aside – this forum's all about property purchases overseas. The economies of the countries involved are a major consideration in such investments, and the number of views on this thread suggest people are finding interest in it. Personally, its also translated into some good business and connections for me, and despite our differences, I also learn alot from freckles posts, whether I find them valid or not, since he's not the only one with these opinions.

from my perspective, as someone who is offering the facilitation of property purchases in Japan, the purpose of posting this thread initially was to gain exposure and interest, and to offer what I think is an exciting and profitable alternative to those who consider investments in other countries. Freckle obviously disagrees, and I disagree with his disagreement, and so it goes…

if you don't think divulging information about overseas investment scenarios in an overseas deal forum is relevant, why are you here?

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August 29, 2013 - 12:26 pm

Quote:

Japans own  government data doesn't support your story

It does, actually – you're presenting a YOY graph, which is a nice little demagoguery trick, considering the fact that you're comparing the current industrial production to that of the post-tsunami era, when the country's biggest re-construction blitz was on. However, if you compare May's numbers to April's you'll see the data is quite accurate (2.3 actually, even better), and furthermore, that, while it's dropped slightly in June, it's still better than it's been since November last year. Nice try though, I love how you play with those graphs.Here's another guy who's good at that, only he's presenting things on the other end of the scale, using, surprisingly, identical colorful pretty pictures, much similar to yours (let me guess, he's an idiot, since he doesn't agree with you and Bass) – http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-is-never-going-to-default-2012-5

Quote:

…his [Kyle Bass']  fund seems to be doing very badly… lost 29% of its value in April, and has really been getting clobbered since inception… given how Bass has structured his trades, and given the performance of said instruments (a series of currency and bond derivatives designed to profit in a Japanese demise), over the past year…the analysis is totally simplistic and incorrect…

debt-to-GDP just doesn't tell you anything about interest rate risk or credit risk…for major economies, there's actually a slight negative correlation between debt-to-GDP and yield on the national 10-year bond…

There's no connection between rate sustainability and domestic/foreign borrowing…It's fun to look at a chart like this, showing that only Japan has more debt than Greece, and to conclude that it's going to implode, but extrapolating from Europe to anywhere else, where countries borrow in their own currencies, and have their own central banks, is a recipe for disaster…No doubt Kyle Bass will keep pumping his Japan trade for awhile, but the logic is badly flawed, and it is never going to pay off for him…

Get it? And here's the best part, which I've been harping on since this endless discussion started – couldn't have said it better myself –

Quote:

True sovereign bustups are not the result of accounting or numbers, but the result of some kind of social/political disfunction. Japan is arguably the most stable society in the world, with low unemployment and a functioning economic and political culture. Thanks to the country's population dynamics, Japan isn't a growth dynamo, but there aren't even the vaguest hints of instability.

And this is really what you're constantly failing to see, sticking to your numbers, graphs and comparing the growth dynamics of ice lettuce to sumo wrestling yokozuna charts till the cows come home – Japan is a socially cohesive country and community, with a deep sense of union and mutual responsibility unparallelled anywhere on this earth. While it may lack in innovation, population growth and/or flexibility to what you'd like to see, it's also nothing like Greece, the USA, Portugal, or any other country on the bankruptcy lists where people hit the streets, loot, burn and pillage at the first sign of trouble. Japan shrugs and prevails, and will continue to do so in the long run, even when things go downhill, as they undoubtedly do anywhere in the world. They support each other – from the man on the street to the CEOs of the world's biggest corporations – of which it still has a great many, whose wealth is committed to their country and peers, regardless of where their factories may lie. When Sharp needs a bailout, Sony, Hitachi and Toshiba are there. When Abe wants to create inflation and growth, corporations comply and raise employee wages IN ADVANCE of such occurrences, in order to stimulate them pro-actively. When over 20,000 perish in a natural disaster that levels entire prefectures, organized crime syndicates work hand in hand with grandmothers and grandfathers to rebuild, days before the first official rescuers even arrive at the scene. When you understand how the Japanese mind works, you'll understand why, no matter how hard the times may be (and they have been for the last 15 odd years, this is actually the brightest moods in Japan have been since the early 1990s), the country and its economy will carry on.They don't call this idiotic gamble the widow-maker for nothing. Bass (and you, if you've been playing his game), is about to find this out the hard way, I believe. 

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August 29, 2013 - 11:16 am

Lol Rudd please, I can imagine the audience running for the hills on that one 

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http://www.nippontradings.com
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Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

[Ziv Nakajima-MagenParticipant@zmagenJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 523]

August 29, 2013 - 7:24 am

Or in Japan…or in property anywhere…or in anything other than precious metals etc

Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone Me

Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

[Ziv Nakajima-MagenParticipant@zmagenJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 523]

August 26, 2013 - 12:49 pm

Mate, this discussions got close to 5000 views, and is often first page on google for "Japan real estate property investment" – passion pays, in life and business both

Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
http://www.nippontradings.com
Email Me | Phone Me

Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property