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January 15, 2014 - 10:52 pm

As long as they keep their hands off my wild turkey, the can do what they want with the Js – including jay Hinrichs!

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January 15, 2014 - 12:30 pm

Oh, and almost forgot –

JAPAN COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SALES HIGHEST SINCE 2007 

Quote:

…Japan’s commercial property sales more than doubled last year to 3.54 trillion yen ($34 billion), the highest since 2007, driven by real estate investment trusts acquisitions, according to DTZ Research.

Property sales climbed to near the record high of 3.61 trillion yen in 2007 and rose from 1.72 trillion yen in 2012…

Tokyo’s real estate market is recovering as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pushes for growth in the world’s third-largest economy. The Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policy helped drive the Tokyo Stock Exchange (1345) REIT Index by 36 percent last year, giving the trusts more room to raise equity and acquire properties…

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January 15, 2014 - 9:38 am

Yup, things just keep getting worse here –

NIKKEI CLOSES 2013 AT 6 YEAR HIGH

ABENOMICS TURNS JAPANESE HEDGE FUNDS INTO WORLD'S BEST PERFORMERS

Quote:

…Japanese shares hit a new six-year closing high for the seventh straight session and posted a nine-day winning streak, it's longest one since 2009. A weaker yen underpinned gains…

…Japanese hedge funds swung from the world’s worst performers in 2012 to the best as the central bank’s reflation efforts put the benchmark Topix index on course for the biggest increase in 14 years and weakened the yen by 17 percent versus the dollar. Assets at the Japan-focused funds tracked by Eurekahedge increased $451 million in the second half of 2013, the most since the six months ended August 2011.

“Japan has come full circle for a lot of investors,” said David Baran, co-chief executive officer of Tokyo-based Symphony Financial Partners. “Many investors felt that all Japanese companies were bad investments, which was patently inaccurate. Those investors who have dismissed Japan have been motivated to come back to the market by Abenomics.”…

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December 16, 2013 - 6:58 am

Freckle wrote:

…The Ag sector has no real power and given small farmers are on average over 50 they may be willing to relinquish their hold …

Very untrue, unfortunately. Here's an explanation – FARMERS HOLDING JAPAN FREE-TRADE TALKS HOSTAGE 

Quote:

…The number of Japanese farmers, full-time and part-time, is 2.5 million—pretty large for a country that is not a major exporter of farm products…farmers wield disproportionate clout in Japanese politics. “Because of the rural bias in Japan’s electoral system the farming lobby is very powerful, even though as a percentage of the economy it accounts for 1 percent,” says Risaburo Nezu, a former trade negotiator for Japan’s government and now a senior executive fellow at the Fujitsu Research Institute…The power behind the farmers is an agricultural cooperative called JA Group. JA dominates corn and rice trading, and runs a bank that holds $532 billion in customer deposits—almost matching Barclays’ $568 billion. The cooperative has about 10 million members, roughly 8 percent of Japan’s population…“They call it the iron triangle: JA, the LDP, and the agriculture ministry,” says Tokyo University professor Masayoshi Honma. He says reform is tough because JA, the bureaucrats, and rural politicians want to maintain their power above all else. “We can’t even force JA to get an outside auditor,” he says. “That would be a critical step” in assessing the real profits and losses of Japan’s agricultural system…

So yes, there's huge room for improvement – and unfortunately, a real danger for Abe-san's seat if he pushes this reform in any significant manner. However, as mentioned above – dismantling the farmer protection system that's been in place for the last 60 years or so is crucial to his economic reform, and has the potential of turning the sector's profits from 1% to 10%, or even more, at least on paper – not the solution to all of Japan's woes, but a darn good component of it.

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December 15, 2013 - 1:18 am

Here we go – this is sure to hurt, but the smartest move by the man yet (as promised, those who read between the lines of his previous speeches saw this one coming) –

ABE PASSES BIGGEST AGRICULTURAL REFORM SINCE MCARTHUR – CUTS MICRO FARMING TO REGAIN COMPETITIVENESS   

Quote:

…Government support, including payments to some farmers for not producing, accounted for 56 percent of the total earnings for Japanese agriculture last year…

“The current system is so unproductive that it’s hurting the nation as a whole,” said Robert Feldman, head of Japan economic research at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. “The price of some agricultural goods is higher than it should be. Changing the agricultural laws is a good way to promote the conversion of land to more efficient use.”…

the heart of the battle is the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives group, or the JA, which has unique powers to finance and insure farms, supply them with equipment and fertilizers and buy their produce…

Under the control of the JA, Japan’s area under cultivation has fallen 25 percent in the past five decades. Farm-gate prices in the country are twice the world average, the OECD estimates. Agriculture’s share of gross domestic product dropped to less than 1 percent in 2011, from 9 percent in 1960, according to the government. “In the absence of fundamental reform, the agricultural sector will continue to wither, trapped in a cycle of low productivity, low earnings and dependence on subsidies and import protection,” OECD economists Randall Jones and Shingo Kimura wrote in a May report…

A survey by the Ministry of Agriculture that year showed that almost nine out of ten farmers were over 50 and more than half of farming households saw it as a side business.

Abe aims to change that.

“Agriculture is the most difficult sector to reform,” Abe, 59, said in a Dec. 6 interview in Tokyo, adding that policy makers are making progress.

Parliament passed a bill this month designed to reduce the amount of idle land and consolidate farms so they can be leased to managers who will boost productivity. The law will “enable farmland to be consolidated and taken over by those who are really motivated,” Abe said…

A separate bill passed by parliament will introduce credit insurance, enabling farmers to borrow from banks and weakening the traditional co-operatives’ dominance in agricultural financing.

The government on Nov. 26 approved a plan to end a four-decade policy of paying rice farmers to reduce their production to support prices. The “gentan” subsidy is scheduled to be halved from April 2014 and abolished by March 31, 2019…

if anyone made the mistake of thinking the "third arrow" was an empty promise, this should be a fine example of how they misunderstand Japanese mentality. It's all about doing things slowly – but ever so thoroughly – and cutting away where necessary, without flinching.

Best of luck to Abe – as mentioned, I hope this painful but necessary move doesn't cost him his job, because he's the first person showing willingness to tackle this crucial issue since the post-WW2 US enforced reforms were put into place.

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December 12, 2013 - 1:38 am

Oh, and let's not forget the property market – after all, that's what we're all here for – Tokyo #1 Asia-Pacific Property Market for 2014 

Quote:

Japanese capital has emerged as magnet for investment in wake of major reforms introduced with aim of boosting economy…Transaction volume in Tokyo picked up significantly this year and, with the success of the stimulus programme yet to be determined, buying is expected to continue next year, the report shows…

Personally, as mentioned several times here, we tend to avoid Tokyo – but there are more than enough high yield locations in the country beyond Tokyo and Osaka – personally, we prefer to go for Fukuoka (where prices are already rising a bit too fast for our taste, so probably only a few months left for the good deals there), Kumamoto, Sapporo and probably Nagoya this year and the next, as indicators seem to suggest – here's why – Japan RE Asset Purchase Strategies – 2013-14

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December 12, 2013 - 1:31 am

If he keeps pushing bills of this sort, he can and should be ousted. The Japanese won't put up with anything that'll make companies like Tepco shielded any more than they currently are, in my opinion – the sort of public backlash that Fukushima has unleashed was unheard of in Japan – if anything could cost Abe his job, this'll be it. As for the economy,  wouldn't be bringing out the popcorn just yet (assuming you like disaster movies, as seems to be the case) – 2013 small-cap stocks suggests Abenomics taking hold 

Quote:

…small growth stocks up 134.6 %  this year…tankan survey of business conditions hit a 21 year high for small enterprises in the nonmanucaturing sector…

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November 12, 2013 - 7:14 am

Only if you send it to me in one of those beautifully hand-knit peter warmers that have been censored here previously

seriously though, folks, please bear witness to this promise of a testicle giveaway at the first sign of meaningful Japanese labor market reforms over the next decade – you may be called upon to mediate the transaction (as well as to impartially help decide what constitutes as "meaningful").

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November 11, 2013 - 11:40 pm

Quite correct on the job laws front – fortunately, Abe hasn't been waiting for your ingenious couch commentary, and is way ahead of you –

AS ABE WEIGHS IMMIGRATION REFORM, IBM EMERGES AS TEST CASE

Quote:

…the prime minister hopes to shift Japan away from an employment system that prioritizes stability to focus on growth. On a Sunday television show, Abe said he wanted more hiring based on specialization or location – jobs that would offer benefits closer to full-time positions but be easier to cut if deemed no longer necessary – as one of his planned labor market reforms.

Advocates say these reforms would spur hiring and create opportunity for women and younger workers more likely to be stuck in lower-paid contract jobs without legal protection.

"We need to move away from this notion of lifetime employment. That means all the Japanese individuals should be more independent," said Hiroshi Mikitani, chief executive of internet shopping firm Rakuten Inc and a member of an industrial competitiveness panel that advised Abe on economic reforms…

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November 9, 2013 - 12:53 am

Yup, the economy is failing, and the poor people are in pain –

JOBLESS RATE DROPS, RETAIL SALES SURGE, SUPPORTING ABENOMICS

Quote:

…Japanese retail sales rose 3.1% from a year earlier in September, according to official data. That compares to a 1.1% increase in August and exceeds analysts' expectations of 1.9% growth. Retail sales rose 1.8% from the previous month.

The higher retail sales have been boosted by increased household spending for the month. Overall household spending increased by 3.7% year over year in September, compared to a 1.6% decline in August. Analysts expected an increase of 0.7% for September.

Meanwhile, Japan's jobless rate fell to 4.0% in September from 4.1% in August. The latest rate matches analysts' expectations.

The spending and unemployment figures add to the success of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as he tries to pull Japan out of 15-year long deflation.

Higher retail sales and consumer spending indicate better incomes of people, which would help end deflation.

Recent consumer price data from the country showed that Japan is on track to meet its inflation target of 2%. In August, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose 0.9% year-on-year, the fastest pace since November 2008…

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November 6, 2013 - 2:11 am

You misread – what I said was that the reason they are not raising base wages is to satisfy stake holders.

as for the rest – your own subjective interpretations and assumptions, as always – so are mine, but at least I don't try to dress them up as the one true gospel ain't no such thing.

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November 6, 2013 - 12:49 am

Alzheimer's again? Poor chap…just to reiterate – Japanese corporations are compensating with bonuses and overtime, in order to satisfy shareholders and management, who are cautious with irreversible moves like base wage hikes – a very Japanese approach – the complete packages are rising slightly – (no "move quick and break things" philosophies, they do it carefully, slowly, and with plenty of room to retract if things go bad – which is actually the right way to do it in my opinion) –

JAPAN SEPTEMBER WAGES POST SLIGHT RISE ON OVERTIME

Quote:

…The total average monthly cash earnings per regular employee in Japan stood at a preliminary Y265,376 in September, up 0.1% from a year earlier, when wages were on a downtrend…Overtime pay rose 3.5% on year, the sixth straight gain. Bonuses and other special pay rebounded 6.4%, the first y/y rise in two months. Summer bonuses paid between June and August this year rose 0.3% from a year before to Y359,317, posting the first rise in three years…

JAPAN CONSUMER PRICES RISE, PACE CLOSE TO FASTEST SINCE 2008, AS ABE DRIVES PICKUP

Quote:

…gauge of Japan’s prices ended four years of declines…Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 0.7 percent from a year earlier, a fourth straight gain and matching the median estimate of economists…

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October 31, 2013 - 12:12 pm

Hot stuff, freck!! Let me know when these hit the shelves!

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October 27, 2013 - 11:12 pm

You're spot-on, and Bass, your favourite messiah, is finally showing his true colors, too. His last sermon cracked me up –

KYLE BASS – "JAPAN, CHINA, EUROPE ALL BAD, BAD, BAD – INVEST ONLY IN USA!!!"

Guess you can't take Texas out of the boy after all )))

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October 26, 2013 - 12:10 am

Yup, the country's in complete meltdown.

JAPAN DISPLAYING HEALTHY ECONOMIC GROWTH, A SUPER STRONG FINANCIAL SYSTEM, AND RISING LAND & PROPERTY PRICES

Quote:

…In Tokyo Metropolitan Area:

The average price of new condominium units soared by 9.2% y-o-y to JPY686,000 (US$6,931) per square metre (sq. m.) in June 2013, based on figures released by the Land Institute of Japan (LIJ).

The average price of existing condominium units rose by 5.9% to JPY399,700 (US$4,039) per sq. m. during the year to June 2013.

The average price of existing detached houses was up by 1.5% to JPY32,130,000 (US$324,644) over the same period.

In Osaka Metropolitan Area:

The average price of new condominium units rose by 8.8% to JPY542,000 (US$5,476) per sq. m. during the year to June 2013.

The average price of existing condominium units increased by 5% to JPY250,000 (US$2,526) per sq. m. over the same period.

The average price of existing detached houses was down by just 0.5% to JPY20,000,000 (US$202,081) over the same period.

Land prices are also rising. During the year to June 2013, the average price of land in Tokyo Metropolitan Area rose by 5.2% to JPY204,500 (US$2,066) per sq. m., while in Osaka Metropolitan Area the average land price increased by 2.3% to JPY132,000 (US$1,334) per sq. m…

…Japan’s financial system is now in excellent shape. During Junichiro Koizumi’s prime ministership (2001 to 2006) tighter asset assessments of major banks caused a large decline in NPLs, from 8.7% of total loans in March 2002, to 1.4% in March 2008, according to the Financial Services Agency (FSA). Lending competition has also intensified, especially in metropolitan areas. Net result: housing loan costs have fallen…

…The Japanese economy is projected to grow robustly in the coming years mainly due to the economic policies advocated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who came into power in December 2012. These economic policies, which are now widely referred to as “Abenomics”, include the following:

Inflation targeting at 2%

Correction of the excessive appreciation of the yen

Setting negative interest rates

Radical quantitative easing

Expansion of public investment

Buying operations of construction bonds by Bank of Japan

Revision of the Bank of Japan Act

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October 25, 2013 - 2:45 am

Yup, and your milkshake brings all the boys to the yard, too. Who's playing the man now? Seems to me, if work is something that we do for personal fulfillment, the amount of time you dedicate to contradicting everybody here counts big time. As promised, will come out and play soon.

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October 25, 2013 - 12:35 am

Sorry freckle, not ignoring you, just busy working. Will come out and play soon, promise.

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October 20, 2013 - 10:51 pm

Wrong.

as mentioned, my family and myself HAVE and occasional are being the target of such rhetoric (in Australia, mind you, not in Japan) – it may cause us to go to the police, but not to expect the government to voice an opinion – what it does do, is make us turn to the government to implement appropriate education policies (which Japan's does in spades). The governments role is not to be "a good man" and be vocal about anything – it speaks through its policies and actions, not through knee jerk reactions to every idiot on the street.

i do expect the police and the courts to react – and indeed, as seen above, they do, in Japan as well as in Australia.

 

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October 20, 2013 - 3:05 pm

Oh, I get it, a bit more than you, I think. A government doesn't need to respond to loud racist minorities excercising their freedom of speech in Japan, no more than the Australian government needs to respond to every anti-Muslim school demonstration put together by loud, racist minorities in Sydney.

the bottom line is what the majority of the population think, act upon and believe – and Japan is one of the most equal opportunity countries out there.

ANTI IMMIGRATION SENTIMENT IN JAPAN – Princeton uni sociological study

Quote:

Table 1. % of respondents who agree with the statement that legal immigrants should have equal rights to nationals for respondents from 6 selected countries.

Japan 73.1

United States 42.1

West Germany 49.1

France 52.3

Netherlands 43.8

Switzerland 42.1

as for the effect of future immigration reforms on current financial conditions – I'll let you know as soon as the details of the reform become clear. At the moment, as usual, we're just speculating – only I admit it, and you continue to pretend you've actually got some facts to rely on. You still don't.

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October 19, 2013 - 11:49 pm

No, it's not an old one, the offense was committed three years ago, the verdict passed this month (as in most court cases). Nice try with the demagoguery again.

Here's another recent one – ANTI KOREAN PROTESTERS ARRESTED IN TOKYO

Aas for immigration – "a xenophobic environment" lol – nice one. Which planet are you living on exactly? Ask anyone who's ever been to japan how "xenophobic" the environment is. ))) I've lived in Australia and Japan both for over a decade now, and being an immigrant in both environments, I've yet to run across a single incident that would even come near the level of alien hate and abuse that I've copped in AUS, anywhere in Japan, including the most rural of areas. The worst that's ever happened to me here was someone refusing to answer my question for directions or sit next to me on the train. In Australia I've received hate mail, been verbally abused on the street, and in some cases came close to physical violence, just because I dared to speak a different language to a family member within earshot of a "true blue" Aussie. Not to berate Australia in any way, it's a great country in many respects, and I'm proud to be a citizen, but to call Japan a xenophobic country is a joke, in comparison.

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