- wealth4life.comMember@wealth4life.comJoin Date: 2003Post Count: 1,248
It is not the fund that is the problem it is the people and companies you trust that are making bad financial decisions with your money.
Most funds are "derivatives" and are destined to fail … a company designs a derivative to make profits for themselves.
Please read Robert Kiyosakis new book Conspiracy of the rich to understand this.
You/we/I must learn financial intelligence and control our OWN money … read over the forums here and you will find every time someone has lost money it is because they have trusted an unlicensed person … or attended a seminar and encouraged to invest without proper planning and a personal profile.
Even Steve has an accounting back ground when he began with Dave his then partner.
You can become rich with real estate and there are lots of horror stories as well … if you get investing wrong you will lose your shirt, your marriage, and your dignity.
BUMP to the top, keep it life people! Pricless thread, it's interesting if concerns raised some many years ago will eventiate and which way.
WOW what a great post this must be a record,
Yes there are many factors still coming to play.
While there are always good positive cash flow deals to be had there are potential dangers as well.
There is still a great deal of danger in the US and EU that could effect Australia.
Spending is down in Australia and the election is spending millions of dollars of tax payer money to win votes.
Personally I don’t care who gets in my only concern that Labour will spend and get us more into debt where the Liberals have a history of saving. Thank god the Howard/Costello partnership saved lots of money to hedge against the GFC.
My other concern is that if we do get a second way the money has been spent, so then what? oh print more money??
Commercial vacancies in some suburbs in sydney are over 30% because business is struggling.
For us we are only looking at the cheapest end of the market in well positioned areas.
It is a hard call predicting the future however with mortgage resets about to kick in there is definitely lots of more pain coming.
author.bardon wrote:Has it bust yet ?
Does not look like burst is coming in any immidiate future, unstable – yes. It's actually been unstable since 2006 (start of this thread)
Australia been great in supporting realestate value, I think it should concentrate on manufacturing/bussiness instead. Will be better in the long run.
Did you watch the 4 corners program last night?
This thread began in 2006 however this global financial problem started in 1971 when Nixon took away the gold standard.
USA and EU are far from over.
Banks in Australia are running out of money to lend, banks get their funds from overseas investors, so it makes sense that if there is further tightening overseas that will flow here.
Look at all the jobs lost in North Queensland, jobs lost mean lowering of property prices, weak tenant structure and slowing of population growth.
This is hard to call but we can all agree that there will be no BOOM in Australia in the near future.
LREA authordevo76Member@devo76Join Date: 2007Post Count: 542
I think very few are suggesting a boom is in the near future. This thread is about a bust after all and even that does not seem certain.
My call is a long flat period 1990's style.
Total guess by the way.Michael 888Participant@michael-888Join Date: 2005Post Count: 260
No boom at all from where I sit.
Devo, agree. I've been posting elsewhere for quite some time, that I smell 1991 in the air. We will have a long flattish
sideways trend for several years. We may track inflation so assume 3 % for the sweet spot there.
Some markets have softened and will continue to do so. SEQ is over-supplied and clearance rates are low and time on market high. The Gold Coast where I was holidaying recently is "on special." ………..with very few buyers. Some vendors still very unrealistic.
Each market is different and the usual makets within markets caveat applies. Money supply (and hence cost) will tighten further.
The undersupply myth has been busted by Michael Matusik last month. I guess he won't be asked to be a guest speaker at any investor (sales) clubs/organisations for a while yet.
Market has to find equilibrium and homestatsis further supporting an ostensibly sideways trend.
I did watch 4 Corners last night and yes the US is in strife with more to come. That's what happens when the lending (stimulus) is controlled by the govt. We have somewhat more responsible lending here.
Equiteeee Maaaate was the catchcry from Which Bank some years ago on their ads. Those days have been subdued somewhat here. In the US equity was used (encouraged by GWB mark 2 and now Obamarama) to fund all manner of value losing and depreciating purchases. All one needed to get a NINJA loan was a pulse and ability to sign their name. Then they also have that cutsie exit clause called jingle mail………….the sound one hears when they post back their keys to the banks and walk away from their non-recourse loans.
Now the recent sugar rush fueled by the $timulu$ will leave the diabetic patient wallowing as the US becomes more and more insulin dependant.
Serves them right………….sure; however the wash up is it will affect the supply of credit here. I dont subscribe to the 40 % bubble popping theory however neither is it gonna be a bed of roses here.
For those new to this gaame, keep your LVR's conservative and manage your ca$h flow are my words of (some) experience. If you can (and you must have the financial discipline to not spend on trinkets and high staus artefacts) get your revals done now and suck out as much as you can into offsets. Don't touch until the bargains appear and the yields become more investor friendly. Yields on current purchase prices in metro cities are rubbish.
Good luck all
Great response 888 on the money!MarkTrullyMember@marktrullyJoin Date: 2010Post Count: 1
I think the sub-prime crisis has been going around the world particularly in housing investments. There were many instances that houses of consumers were sold up by mortgage company at auctions at a very lower prices.Really this has been a very grim situation and hope the housing market would be back on it's track.WJ HookerParticipant@wj-hookerJoin Date: 2007Post Count: 272
OK so if the consensus is that housing will be flat for many years and no boom coming…. ( most people seem to go along with this ??).
Then the obvious question is WHY are people buying investment properties ??
Since and correct me if I'm wrong – you get rich from capital growth not rental income, why would anyone be throwing money away purchasing I/P's ??
Which now leads to the question – WHY don't we all sell our rental properties now and lock in our gains ??
Well for me – this question relates back to CGT…Which on the side again, is that we are all getting ripped off by the Taxation System doing away with the indexation method.. No one complained about this when capital gains were high, but now if houses just went along with inflation, then we wouldn't be up for CGT.. But now with low capital gains we still pay CGT.
I think I am getting away from the main origianal post, but anyway some thoughts for others…
Who says people are not selling?
Depends on the area. Please take into account people such as me who are looking to manufacture profit, we don't fall into wait and see capital gains or rental income driven investors.
Also we are not taking into account the 80% of people who really want to own (pay a mortgage) their own home. The property market is not just run on numbers it is run on emotion too. Many home buyers even second and third buyers are not as educated as they could be about risk etc. They simply don't care as they are buying purely for a roof over their heads.
Dear WJH and DW,
Good comments however!
Old thinking IMHO
1. If you sell where do you put your money?
2. USA property slides further down and this will affect Australia.
3. Start thinking passive income, not negative gearing and CFP.
4. The old day thinking is “your home is an asset” this is incorrect if it is the only asset you own because it is paid out of after tax dollars.
5. People want security especially women, but are experiencing nightmares.
6. What our parents taught us is not relevant today.
7. This problem started in 1971 with president Nixon when he took aware the gold standard from cash, since then inflation has gone through the roof.
8. WJH u r on track but when this post started in 2006 was the beginning of the down hill slide, plus the GFC and a possible second wave, then the talk of the DOW going under 5000 … forget about growth and selling good assets work on passive income IMHO
Who is brave to make the next call … I’m off to Rome, Paris, London and Taipei with my family in 2 weeks yahoo, paid from passive income hehe
USA has a delightful thing called a 50 year mortgage. (uhh) They have jingle mail – post back your keys, walk away no more to pay. They have many, many problems.
Australia is not perfect but once govt stability is returned will become an investment darling. Not what it once was but still will attract.
We all will live to see many many more cycles in markets.
Anyone wanna have a guess as to whether the world really will end in 2012? I wanna put it in my Outlook. All the American docos on the subject may be scaring the Natives.
DummesterMember@ummesterJoin Date: 2008Post Count: 510DWolfe wrote:Anyone wanna have a guess as to whether the world really will end in 2012? I wanna put it in my Outlook. All the American docos on the subject may be scaring the Natives.
The world should be fine. I have deciphered the real meaning of the 2012 mystery – it's about the Australian property market:PharbMember@harbJoin Date: 2006Post Count: 324ummester wrote:
The world should be fine. I have deciphered the real meaning of the 2012 mystery – it's about the Australian property market:P
Better rush and get some then, before they are all gone.
Or did you mean that 2012 is the year you finally give up the wait for lower prices and buy ?
Angelina5Participant@angelina5Join Date: 2010Post Count: 1
In many respects I feel the current commodities boom is a major factor in keeping us afloat as a country. I am not sure what else there is going to be when that dries up. They may be cheap but it needs to be in relation to the strength of population movements and economic growth.
Bump for a second month of value loss of RE , 1% in a month that is what… 11% year add inflation on the top and you have 15%.
China is under crunch now feeling financial limitations of how much they can spend on stimulus.. remeber Chineese stimulus keeps them purchasing Aussie ore.
Hi usual gang,
''In contrast to claims that the decline in home values recorded in June would accelerate, we have seen quite the opposite,'' said managing director of Rismark International Christopher Joye. Read it carefully.
"Home values in Australia's most expensive suburbs fell more in 2008, rebounded quickly in 2009, and are now tapering at a more rapid rate than cheaper property markets,'' Mr Lawless said.
"Housing affordability conditions continue to worsen for the other end of the market."
While we are seeing a drop in the top end of the overall market (some would argue that that is a good thing for many reasons?!) affordability worsened at the other end meaning that the bottom price has gone up.
These articles are crap. The video on this page said "it is too early to tell" probably because no one can see the future.
Bring the articles I will pick them to pieces. Not all markets are a good investment, not all shares, or bonds or whatever are a good investment.
No offense to you simple (sound cranky in this post:))
No one knows what is happening or going to happen. Make decisions based on your ability to carry debt, risk and goals.