The government and RBA will try to support pricing, possibly offering stimulus and definitely using IRs as a blunt tool, to help the balance sheets of the big 4. No one wants to see an Ozzie bank go down, so their integrity will be defended as much as possible.
Freckle – who is holding the bag now is very important to how it unfolds in Australia, I believe. From what I understand, the greater majority of IPs are held by those currently in the 55-65 range. NG has been their friend but now this age group is starring down the barrel of retirement (forcibly in some cases).
2007 was kind of the national peak. 2008 shaved a bit off the top. The Rudd handouts and FHOG boost (probably more to help his wife with her investment property than anything else:)) only served to get prices back to the peak by 2009/2010. Since 2010 the market has not been healthy but it is only really this year that concern seems to be becoming…[Read more]
Seems to me the simple version of what Freckle and Simple are posting is something like:
The Oz government is fine and not carrying the debt levels of somewhere like the US. Private debt is pretty bad (mostly corporate and individual household debt). This debt is owed outside of Australia.
The question Simple poses is can the debt be ridden out…[Read more]
Yes, you can sell your peas if there is demand and funded customers. Pretty hard to move them if the cutomers can't pay.
Welcome to the market cycle. You see … if they arent paying ….. you dont fill places. If you dont fill places you REDUCE your rents to a level where the place will be filled. So if the rents…[Read more]
Well, it's 2012 now. Let's see what happens. I think, of all things that could happen, growth like has been seen for the last 15 odd years (that property doubles every 7 years tripe) is the least likely. Flat is a safe bet because it also covers little bits up and down if spun correctly. Down 15% or more is a…[Read more]
Many bears who did their maths thought it was time for the Ozzie market to correct in 2008 – and without the Ruddprime stimulus it likely would have been. It's amazing how some extra LVR propped up the bottom of the market and allowed it to grow.Oddly, at the time bears were preaching their stuff in 2008, there were some bulls running around on b…[Read more]
Have you seen this?http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=6A1FD147A45EF50DThat said, I was under the impression most Ozzie property had grown by 3-5% PA (on average) from the 50s through to the 90s (give or take) and, after that time it took off and grew around 7-10% PA (on average) until 2005-2007 (state dependant). So, even on a log scale,…[Read more]
A longer term chart of rates from the 1990's to place things in perspective. Rates will go up and down what remains is how you take action and advantage of the market that exists at the moment!
Yea, until they go up again:)Last 20 years the av has been around 6%.Long term, it's around 8%.
Hey FWord……I have to say……. I'm not pitying our kids…They don't have to head off to a war, they wont starve on a boat headed here, they won't know abject poverty (hopefully), they will have the right to freedom and voting and equality, etc.
Don't be so sure.Last time the global economy was this messed up it led to war.I…[Read more]
I think those moving into retirement would be very worried about their super and, for a great many of them (as boomers and jones are the most property rich), property values.I think those who are long since retired are more worried about government support for the aged.Bubble or no, I reject the notion that Australian's love their houses, or the…[Read more]
So we have an emotionally sustained property bubble?Do Australians love their houses more than anywhere else in the world?It's like I said a few posts earlier – it really is different here, we are more full of it.Anyways, if they aren't going to move until they die, what do they really care what it's worth? It's not like they can take the value of…[Read more]