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- Derek wrote:Andrew, Thanks for you valued feedback. Michael seemed to think there was a lot of song and dance about not much.
I would expect there might be local benefits in terms of infrastructure perhaps, on a suburb level, but wonder about the impact on a more general level for a city of half a million+ people.
The Gold Coast has been having this debate about 'Indy' for years in terms of is it worth it.
Would expect like the last boom the Goldy will begin to look very interesting once fundamentals start looking compelling, need look no further than 'yield' as your one proxy for total market indicators here I think. I remember buying in 2001 on the coast when prices had been flat for a decade and getting +ve cashflow yields.. those were the days
I know something about this subject
Generally been quiet since 2007, I have some detailed charts and percentage returns on here to look at in terms of Brisbane specifically.
https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/general-property/43429362012, Looks like being a good year! It might seem strange to get excited about a month that recorded a -0.03% capital loss until you understand what type of year 2011 was. I was predicting a flat January and my prediction has proven to be somewhat accurate. The increase in buyer activity was first noticed mid December and has continued right through January resulting in more healthy price action for our market.
There are still plenty of people sitting on the fence and watching the Brisbane market carefully, waiting for signs of positive momentum, fair enough, just keep in mind that if you are one of the people on this fence you need only glance around to see all of the people you will be competing against when the market turns. It’s really crowded on that fence presently.
Houses: $427,134
Units: $348,900The latest Brisbane property data current till the end of December 2011. Eleven out of twelve months recorded a capital loss in 2011 and only three of the last nineteen months have recorded gains. If you are looking to ‘buy the dip’ in Brisbane property there is a healthy chance that this might be the time!
With a capital loss of 6.7% for the calendar year 2011 it was most welcome to usher in 2012 and a chance for a stronger show! January 2012 has shown healthy turnover and renewed buyer interest so it will be interesting to see how well this reflects in the January data.
Houses: $427,253
Units: $352,943Fantastic question!
There's so much toxic prediction out there and precious little concrete suggestions to pin down. There are good legal reasons why a person might not want to be specific but most predictors aren't specific for other reasons including they don't know any better.
Three important questions you need to answer for any trade:
1) What to I buy
2) How much
3) When do I sellIf a person opines that residential real estate is not a good investment then so what? Steve Keen sold his apartment and values are up significantly in the area since he sold, doesn't mean anything other than prediction and profiting from market timing that prediction can pass by each other quietly in the night without ever meeting. If a person then opines that a fixed term deposit is a good alternative then we have something to test, great.. we can measure our total and risk adjusted returns and build a track record.
Applying the Jan Somers recipe to our three questions we have:
1) Residential property!
2) When you can afford it
3) NeverNot a perfect recipe by any means as Jan admits herself but one that will continue to perform well (even if under longer term trend) with a few assumptions.
1) Take Residex 5yr forward predicted returns
2) Favourable tax, leverage and government support continue to exist
3) We aren't invaded or something equally disastrous, there's always a possible scenario to cancel all betsThis is just for buy and hold investors, those who are actively adding value are doing great in this market and will continue to make money but they can reasonably be viewed as operating a business rather than being purely investors.
Also back on track… offset accounts set a high benchmark to beat when you take into account tax considerations
