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  • Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 237

    moxi10 Joined: 06/11/2010
    EPI_Den Joined: 13/11/2010
    xdrew Joined: 20/11/2010

    Funny that, three persons all joined fairly recently, few days apart from each other and have similar view on the subject.
    Nick-names are not very creative to.

    I make no conclusion, let time and posters decide :)

    Profile photo of ALF1ALF1
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    @alf1
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 237

    Why don’t all you negative doom and gloomer’s take your negativity to [email protected] . There is never a perfect time to invest into property but, you must start sometime. Keep inventing excuses and remain reactive instead of proactive and you WILL be part of the devastated 90%+ who retire poor….

    Profile photo of moxi10moxi10
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    @moxi10
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 194

       Simple? Where is the creativity in that? And "to" is spelt too. And I'm left wondering… what does a creative name have to do with market analysis? Or SIMPLE personal opinion?

    Profile photo of DWolfeDWolfe
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    @dwolfe
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 1,253

    This thread just keeps on keeping on……almost as bad as the property crash 09 thread!

    This is my last post on this, then I'm unsubscribing :)

    Firstly, Simple, even if the three posters you have pointed out are the same person (which I doubt) so what, they can speak their minds just the same as the property bears that have multiple logins do.

    Secondly being in Brisbane is tough. It is a down market which like a Coles advert is 'down down prices are down' and staying down. Which is very different to other markets.

    Queensland has lost a lot of it's lifeblood in the tourism trade. Wealthy Japanese are rebuilding in Japan or touring a cheap America. Aussies are staying at home because of the much touted 'recession' Because really that's what it is when retail spending is down, now one is buying a new car and no one has spare money.Thanks to the MEDIA for the recession we thought we were having.

    The other problem QLD had is in the fact that retirees are working longer and not retiring to live in the sun the way they used to. Victoria's weather has stayed relatively stable for 10ish years meaning that no-one in is a hurry to jump ship to escape the constant drizzle, this will change over the next 10ish years.

    That's my take on QLD.

    SO. Where are people moving to? Victoria, which has had a mini slump (10 minutes ago you missed it) in some areas, the good Eastern Suburb areas with reasonable price tags haven't even blinked and a few top end properties had to sell for under $10 mill big whoop.

    The other place which is being touted by every Tom Dick and Immigration department is THE HUNTER VALLEY! I wish everyone would just be quiet about this! I am not ready to buy there yet! ;P Generally when people you know start working somewhere in mining or construction, the area is gearing up.

    So the crash……. the big crash…. is in QLD. It is also in WA where you must discount  to get a sale. But these areas will come back, when people can get jobs there easily and projects etc start happening there.

    Somebody else talked about the stock on market and this is a pretty important thing in Vic. If you have junk, that isn't perfect, it will not sell. If you have 'the house' the one they all want, then you will get your price.

    People who have loans and cash, want to buy exactly what they want now. The way they can shop in a shop is the same way they want to buy a house, exactly the spec they want, the way it feels when they try it on, the price, the customer is always right. And in some areas it is not a lack of stock, it's a lack of perfect stock.

    D

    DWolfe | www.homestagers.com.au
    http://www.homestagers.com.au
    Email Me

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 237

    I think we getting off topic here.
    Thread’s point is to to discuss the ‘fall’ of the prices on housing in Australia. And as per RP data they are falling as of 2011.

    Been predicted to start falling in 2006 by some members, on first 5-6 pages. Been predicted to fall much further too (thanks for spelling correction moxi10, my German background shows up).

    This thread is valuable, as it allows one to make a judgement, leave comments here and look at it after 5 years (I did). Shows how good your judgement was/is and gives you point of reference for learning.

    As for been negative – having negative outlook on RE prices over next 5 years got nothing to do with been a positive person and making money on RE during this time (as I do, and will continue to do throughout 2012).

    Profile photo of xdrewxdrew
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    @xdrew
    Join Date: 2010
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    simple wrote:
    moxi10 Joined: 06/11/2010 EPI_Den Joined: 13/11/2010 xdrew Joined: 20/11/2010 Funny that, three persons all joined fairly recently, few days apart from each other and have similar view on the subject. Nick-names are not very creative to. I make no conclusion, let time and posters decide :)

    Funny that .. i just happened to join on that date two years ago. Which was when I finished reading the book number 2 260+ properties .. that Steve wrote. My nickname remains the name that i chose on Hotmail 15 years ago. Its not very constructive … my name is Andrew .. i lopped off the An part .. stuck an X at the front .. and got an address at hotmail. No numbers .. no underscores .. and its been in use for 15 years. Check it out .. you've got my hotmail address now .. i expect some abuse and junk mail.

    My Interest in Property goes back to when I was 14. I'm now 39. That leaves me with a HECK of a lot of time and experience in the property investment .. construction and renovations areas. I've been a business analyst .. computer expert and finally a real estate sales agent in the South Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne Australia. I've been a successful investor and with a regular interest in the property market .. a good guide to my family and friends as to how the market performs at any given time. I have successfully made the RIGHT recommendations for family members and friends who needed the correct information for their given circumstances and investment strategies.

    You .. sir .. are a wilderbeast.

    A conspiracy junkie. The type of person who trolls forums with a possibility that everything that goes on around money must be sinister and conspiratorial. The type of person who says I am going to do what I think is best for myself and bugger everyone else around me .. they are in my way. The person who snivels at investors in ANY market and then cries foul when they actually produce good results. The person who when seeing other people achieve good results .. really hopes they fail.

    In all .. you are irrelevent to my future postings and I will continue to refute any backwards claims you have with these crazy things called facts. And I will continue enjoying my success .. my hotmail box .. my investment strategies while you call foul on the world and wonder why a weak willed doomsayer as yourself ever struck out on such bad luck.

    Its because you never gave yourself half a chance.

    And I will let time and the posters continue to decide on what reality they prefer. Its their choice.

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
    Join Date: 2006
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    @ xdrew – my apology, did not meant to upset you or sidetrack the thread.

    Been to the open house today at wavell heights (brisbane), property been on the marked for couple of months. Discount from original price 15% , three persons show up including me. Agent has no offer, asking for a feedback. Property is above $700K mark.

    Had a chat with agent, his feedback is that market have changed, vendors who want to sell need to meet the offered price (discounted).

    Profile photo of Von KrummVon Krumm
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    @von-krumm
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 23

    Old but relevent: http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/8965098/1/

    Also couldn't find the thread subscription button :)

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    @ummester
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 510

    Many bears who did their maths thought it was time for the Ozzie market to correct in 2008 – and without the Ruddprime stimulus it likely would have been. It's amazing how some extra LVR propped up the bottom of the market and allowed it to grow.

    Oddly, at the time bears were preaching their stuff in 2008, there were some bulls running around on bearish forums claiming the bears were too early and 2012 would be the time.

    Well, it's 2012 now. Let's see what happens. I think, of all things that could happen, growth like has been seen for the last 15 odd years (that property doubles every 7 years tripe) is the least likely. Flat is a safe bet because it also covers little bits up and down if spun correctly. Down 15% or more is a riskier bet but, I feel, more likely than up.

    Profile photo of xdrewxdrew
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    @xdrew
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 479
    ummester wrote:
    Well, it's 2012 now. Let's see what happens. I think, of all things that could happen, growth like has been seen for the last 15 odd years (that property doubles every 7 years tripe) is the least likely. Flat is a safe bet because it also covers little bits up and down if spun correctly. Down 15% or more is a riskier bet but, I feel, more likely than up.

    And your basis for either suggestion is .. what?

    We got two main pressures on us now. One is the big overbloated debt scene overseas. If we think it wont affect us in the hip pocket .. we are mistaken. The other is encroaching inflationary pressure .. brought on by feeding stimulus money into a depressed economy. It does nothing but revalue money. Thats going to pan out as inflationary pressure reflected in increased prices for housing materials .. tiling .. bathroom accessories .. etc etc.

    Do we have the desperation of NEED TO SELL yet? Thats the type of thing where prices plummet. Outside of that .. people just hold on .. property gets harder to get hold of at any price. So the people out there looking for a property are prepared to PAY more to get it.

    There is no magic bullet that will stroke this market. The market is .. a market. The same as if you went out to the local grocers market and asked for beans and peas. If there is ready supply you get a good price. If there are issues with supply you may pay a different price to what you are USED to paying. The leader will be rentals. If people decide to stop renting and move into property due to low rates .. the whole property cycle takes off again. With less demand for rentals .. and less rental pressure. But .. more demand on existing housing supply.

    It really is that simple. No need for wafty analysis .. or trying to use the paths of the stars to judge where we will be in 2020. If there is demand and customers .. you can sell your peas.

    Profile photo of Michael 888Michael 888
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    @michael-888
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 260

    For those old enough to recall…..it's 1991………………..sideways she goes. There are markets within markets so I am talking in a generic sense (as every one else is) with some mining regionals to likely outperform for a while.

    Oz has been living high on the hog for quite some time. I do not believe the China story will suddenly end, however in the event of a likely slow down and hiatus of resource hyper-consumption, wait for unemployment to surface. We will not be immune from the credit squeeze that may ensue from Eurozone fallout  either.

    I am not a bear, but a realist. I still have significant holdings of property however yields are not enticing for me to purchase more. Right now have offsets poised and ca$h in the bank. Folding stuff isn't a long term investment play however right now my dollars aren't inflating away. If further cash rate cuts ensue we face a period of deflation. It's our debt that will rise in relative terms for a medium time frame. I do feel that we will be in significantly higher interest rates (over eight's) in 18 months time or so. Now is the time to have skinny LVR's. It isn't yipee kayay yet…………….those days will come however it will be a few years before we can call gidee up IMHO.

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
    Join Date: 2006
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    Wirsz advises Fortune 500 CEOs and fund managers on investing in real estate:

    Bloodbath to hit Australian real estate, global property analyst Jordan Wirsz says

    AUSTRALIA’S love affair with property is about to be tested amid predictions prices will plummet by as much as 60 per cent, with capital cities hardest hit.
    That’s the Armageddon-esque warning from leading US real estate analyst Jordan Wirsz, who believes Australia is heading towards a property bloodbath as the global economic downturn spreads to China and eventually here.
    Mr Wirsz advises Fortune 500 CEOs and fund managers on investing in real estate.
    He predicts that a flood of properties will begin to hit the market in Australia from next year as investors scramble to bail out, leading to a property crash of magnitude the country has not seen before.
    “Right now is not a time to be buying real estate in Australia,” Mr Wirsz said.
    “The market has slowed substantially but residential prices are likely to fall up to 60 per cent, possibly even more, within five years.”
    The outlook is even grimmer for land investments, which Mr Wirsz said are more speculative and will plummet by as much as 80 and 90 per cent in value.
    Commercial property will also take a hit in line with the residential sector shedding at least 50 per cent of its value.
    Mr Wirsz pointed to artificially low interest rates, high loan-to-value lending practices, overinflated property prices, unrealistic vendor expectations and Australia’s large number of second mortgages.
    “I’m bearish about world real estate but I couldn’t be more bearish about the Australian market,” he said.
    “There have been corrections but they don’t hold up to the scale of what is coming.
    “The paradigm is that nobody ever believes house prices can go down but those who have bought at the top of the market are going to be sorely disappointed.”
    He predicts property prices will be on a slippery slope next year when interest rates begin to rise, commodity prices peak and China’s demand for Australian exports slows.
    A sluggish recovery will begin in 2016.
    “If you are homeowner, be cautious, get rid of your debt, consider selling if you don’t plan to be in your house for more than seven years and downsize or become a tenant,” he said.
    The only winners will be real estate agents cashing in on bank-owned properties, he added.
    Adding to the glum outlook, properties in capital city would be hardest hit “because Australian cities are some of the most overvalued in the world and more speculative than regional areas”, Mr Wirsz said.
    Mr Wirsz joins other international naysayers including visiting US economist Harry Dent who recently said Australian house prices were 50 per cent overvalued.
    With few exceptions, local experts disagree with their predictions.
    HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham said for property values to crash there would need to be sharp rises in interest rates, unemployment and housing stocks.
    That combination is not on the cards, he said.
    “I am not of the view that there is a looming housing bubble in Australia as it seems many doom and gloomsters are,” Mr Bloxham said.
    “Surely if the market was going to collapse it would have happened in 2009 after the Lehman’s collapse when we had the biggest aversion to housing assets that you’ve seen.
    “All we saw was a 3 per cent fall in house prices and then they rose.”
    Mr Bloxham believes an undersupply of housing, more rate cuts, low dwelling price to income ratios and strong overseas demand for Australian assets will act as buffer from global instability
    “Some commentators aren’t doing the calculations correctly, they typically look at detached houses in the capital cities, they don’t incorporate apartments and regional areas, and they overstate the level of house prices to income.”
    Sydney real estate agent Charlie Bailey of Ray White Inner West believes there will not be a burst because there is no bubble.
    “People have been predicting house prices to fall every year and every year we have an increase in prices,” Mr Bailey said.
    “In Sydney, we have 20,000 people a week looking for accommodation and not enough supply.
    “I can’t see the city’s housing infrastructure changing any time soon so a prediction of a 60 per cent fall in property prices is a big call.”

    Source: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/bloodbath-to-hit-australian-real-estate-property-analyst-jordan-wirsz-says/story-e6frfmd0-1226248472949

    Profile photo of PaulliePaullie
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    @paullie
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 217

    pfft of course hed say that, he wants australians buying the the usa to help his property recover.

    Profile photo of Michael 888Michael 888
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    @michael-888
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 260

    Wirsz makes Steve Keen look like Pollyana.  

    I certainly don't see it that bad, however it will be some time before we can call Gidee Up here in Oz. The market pricing needs to reach some type of equilibrium again. Some more softening likely or sideways at best for BHP strategy (Buy Hope Pray).

    Passive caapital growth will be rare in Oz for a while. Those pursing more active strategies with value adding, subdivision, etc, will hedge themselves somewhat.

    Profile photo of fWordfWord
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    @fword
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 471

    A fall in prices of houses by up to 60% and a fall in land prices of 80-90%? Boy, I'd like to see that.

    Profile photo of xdrewxdrew
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    @xdrew
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 479
    simple wrote:
    “Right now is not a time to be buying real estate in Australia," Mr Wirsz said. "The market has slowed substantially but residential prices are likely to fall up to 60 per cent, possibly even more, within five years." The outlook is even grimmer for land investments, which Mr Wirsz said are more speculative and will plummet by as much as 80 and 90 per cent in value. Commercial property will also take a hit in line with the residential sector shedding at least 50 per cent of its value. Mr Wirsz pointed to artificially low interest rates, high loan-to-value lending practices, overinflated property prices, unrealistic vendor expectations and Australia's large number of second mortgages. 

    http://www.ripoffreport.com/mortgage-companies/jordan-wirsz/jordan-wirsz-diamond-bay-mortg-aa3f4.htm

    Beware of a guy named Jordan Wirsz.  He started a hard money lending company in Las Vegas, NV that went out of business in 2009.  That company was Diamond Bay Mortgage.  His investors, who were generally elderly and gullible, lost millions of dollars.  When the going got tough, he folded his tent, leaving his investors holding loans that were largely or totally worthless.  My unsuspecting mother was one of those investors.

    He has recently tried to reinvent himself as a motivational guru and coach, and has even started writing books to bolster his credibility.  He is a sharp guy and impressive on the surface.  Approach with caution. 

    2 min Google search would tend to put a big question mark on your 'authorities' for a drop. He's a big time wheeler and dealer who has no interest in keeping to facts. He runs from one situation to the next.

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
    Join Date: 2006
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    Thanks xdrew, nice feedback.
    I was wondering what he is up to, as his ‘angle of approach’ seem very focused on getting fixed mindset of the reader. That is usually indication of personal interest in the matter discussed.

    Profile photo of BonhamBonham
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    @bonham
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    Well the Valuer General just sent me my new notification of valuation of my PPOR plot here in Sydney and has raised it by 15%  since the last '08 valuation.  No thanks to him/her/it, my rates are going to increase by 15% over the next 3 years.  I somehow can't see a supposed 60% decrease in the North Shore side of Sydney any year soon.

    BTW, …not happy.

    Profile photo of realestateedu.com.aurealestateedu.com.au
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    @realestateedu.com.au
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 84

    An old developer mate of mine has a saying "what is the true value" of what you are buying?

    China is slowing no doubt about that … how will this affect Australian jobs and inflation?

    EU financial mess is still not fully disclosed and is losing support to be fixed, will this affect Australia?

    Australian retailers are really hurting, I personally do not know one person killing it in business out there, several years ago I knew plenty.

    In my own area of Hunters Hill in Sydney prices over 2 million are falling big time and staying on the market for months.

    Carbon tax will not cause a rise in prices … sorry Julia all the prices have risen before the carbon tax comes in, small Aussie families are hurting.

    2 major Aussie banks borrowed 1 billion each in 2008 from the FRB to stay afloat … are our banks really as safe as the media tells us or are we being brain washed?

    As Robert Kiyosaki says … the middle class is being wiped out and they don't know it.

    All the talk is on Gold and Silver physical purchasing as the safe haven ??

    If you can work out what the "true value" of an investment is then you will win the new money game in 2012 and beyond, what ever yours and my opinion is makes no real sense other than how much we have have in true assets or real cash.

    I do not see a property boom ahead in the next 3/4 years.

    China, Japan are trading their own currency away from the USD … there is no gold standard on currencies which Nixon stopped in 1971 40 years ago.

    We are all being manipulated by the elite who control global finance and the FRB, the FRB has NO gold, all their gold was taken by the Treasury in 1933 and swopped with gold certificates (worthless paper) this is the greatest CON of all time, another derivative set to burst.

    My prediction is that homes over 1 million will drop because of affordability, how much who knows … my advise is don't by real
    estate from and unlicensed person or marketing company … get advise here and read every piece of news you can … good luck to all i'm confused.
     
      

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
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