All Topics / General Property / Property bust not here yet … worse to come

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  • Profile photo of abcd1abcd1
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    Post Count: 36
    simple wrote:
    luke86 wrote:
    I think you will find that property repossessions are relatively low compared to other developed nations around the world, and by no means high compared to historical levels in Australia. No need to hit the panic button.

    Cheers,
    Luke

    Agree, my post reads like a bit of over reaction.
    This is probably a result of been frustrated with  people out there keep throwing 'property double in value every 7 years' staff :)
    There are many houses for sale now, a lot more than 2 years ago, but not to many sold by banks as pepos.
    I think in 3-4 years from now it actually may be a best time to buy, if you got a job and deposit that is :)

     

    I agree and am one of those buying in qeensland nows a great time to buy when everyone is scared

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    abcd1 wrote:
    I agree and am one of those buying in qeensland nows a great time to buy when everyone is scared

    Buying when everyone is scared is a good idea. I don't think everyone is scared yet though.

    Buyers obviously are, as stock is rising and prices are softeneing.

    Vendors aren't really scared yet.

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
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    [/quote]

    I know

    Yes, my silver has given me great returns… I just wish I had stacked the boat 10 years ago when you could get the stuff for 4 bucko's an ounce

    I was only making $10/hr hour back then, Though I could have bought 2.5 ounces for every hour of work I done.

    Now I earn $40/hr and I can only purchase a bit over 1 ounce for an hours work.

    You could have easily secured yourself a 10% dividend with Telstra shares earlier this year, I think they where trading @ less then $2.70 at some point, What a bargain.
    [/quote]

    Who is the author of those words: I made a small fortune buying too late and selling to early?
    So, welcome onboard, this is how money are made. Knowing exactly when to buy and sell will multiply your profits. But any profit is still good.
    I was thinking if I was unreasonable purchasing gold for $1400 last year. Now 20% up-move later, I am happy. Thinking if I am not to buy some at $1700 been unreasonable…. :)

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
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    ummester wrote:
    abcd1 wrote:
    I agree and am one of those buying in qeensland nows a great time to buy when everyone is scared

    Buying when everyone is scared is a good idea. I don't think everyone is scared yet though.

    Buyers obviously are, as stock is rising and prices are softeneing.

    Vendors aren't really scared yet.

    Agree with observation.  Market is stugnant but there is no FEAR there. Vendors not willing to sell with discount, buyers not purchasing at full price anymore. So not many transactions are made.
    Prices need to start doping or rising to change the situation.  Make your bet :)

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    simple wrote:
    Agree with observation.  Market is stugnant but there is no FEAR there. Vendors not willing to sell with discount, buyers not purchasing at full price anymore. So not many transactions are made.
    Prices need to start doping or rising to change the situation.  Make your bet :)

    My avatar should give my bet away:)

    Even if people want to buy now, credit is harder to obtain. Many may think Brissy is the buy of the century – it only looks that way prior to the last decade and not if you take the lows of 2008 into account.

    Is a bubble tripple peak possible? That is what I wonder now. Can house prices in this country possibly be spiked to a new high before it comes down?

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
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    Well, I was a LOONG time Bear for RE, to be exact since 2006 (as per start date of this thread).
    I now planing to come back in to the RE as a investor. I believe that times are great as falling prices and rising rents offer increasing ROI.
    One can now relatively easy locate 5.5% return (via rent) VS 3% couple of years back. As next 12 months develop ROI will break even with the cost of borrowing making it an entry point for an investor.

    Thoughts anyone?

    Anyone know of a good TAX VS Property seminars in Brisbane?

    Profile photo of HandyAndy888HandyAndy888
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    What on earth has happened to this thread???

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    It's not quite time to resurface it yet.

    Profile photo of fWordfWord
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    It's just funny to see how this thread (and ones like these) seem to gasp from time to time before going under the water again. Keeps the forum interesting.

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
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    Long therm treads are good.
    1. they indicate long time members that contributed and still around
    2. they provide great learning perspective as what was expected vs what really happen
    3. you get to see who was brave to take a guess

    In the last 5 years I seen so many people come, make a noise and go. I value those who been around for some time

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    simple wrote:
    I value those who been around for some time

    <br /:)” title=”>:)” class=”bbcode_smiley” /> I've been around for ages.

    Actually, I started reading and posting here before I found any bear sites.

    I still think the same basic logic applies though. It looked like the Aussie housing market was going to correct in 2008 (more than the 5-10% average it suffered) until Rudd's housing/construction/retail stimulus package came into play. Now, it looks like it is going to correct again if another stimulus package doesn't come into play.

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
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    +1
    I am thinking along the same line. Till today, for 2011 RE is -6% or -10% with CPI included.
    Unless the government intervene, we are up for a long slide. Maybe not a spectacular drop but a long gradual slide down for sure.

    As a side note, I think this is great time to start looking in to the purchasing. Not necessarily right now, but as it develops interesting propositions pop up.
    I actually have a contract been prepared now for purchasing rental property. You can now find those with the return of over 8%, making it cashflow positive.

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
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    Bump for the old thread!

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    Origiona: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/11/residex-house-prices-fell-in-october/

    Residex: House prices fell in October

    Yesterday Residex released its October median house price indexes and, generally speaking, the downward shift in prices accelerated from September as the Spring selling season got going.

    Here is a chart for Sydney:

    The housing component fell 1.65% in October. I don’t want to be too alarmist, this is a median index and thus subject to a fair bit of volatility, but that is the largest one month fall since 1979 (and the formation of the index) and follows a 1% fall in September. Even accounting for volatility, it appears Spring has spawned a new vigor to discount among Sydney house vendors.

    The story is different in apartments, however, with the index actually rising 0.4%, and clinging to a recent record high in July.

    On to Melbourne:

    The Melbourne index for houses has trudged lower every month for five months and October continued the trend with a 0.9% fall. Unlike Sydney, however, apartments also fell down for a fifth month in six, some 1.5%.

    On to Brisbane:

    The Brisbane houses index resumed falling after a big September bounce, reversing all of the 1.5% gains and is now down nine out of ten months. The same transpired in the apartment index, down 0.98%.

    Finally, Perth:

    The housing index slowed its decline, down 0.36%. Conversely, the apartment index fell more swiftly at 0.76%.

    All in all a lousy month. It will be interesting to compare with R.P. Data’s hedonic index.

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    Hello All,

    Where are we at today, 7% drop plus CPI of 4% conservative. Can we call 2011 as 10% loss for Brisbane in RE values?

    Anyone want to call what 2012 will like ? :)

    Profile photo of moxi10moxi10
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      2012  gunna b good. I'm buying more. b happy b positive look ahead not behind

    Profile photo of moxi10moxi10
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     things r lookin up not down

    Profile photo of EPI_DenEPI_Den
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    Maybe the market has bottomed out – house prices have risen in November (0.1%) and December (0.3%). There are still relatively strong fundamentals (demand exceeds supply) and the lowering of interest rates will free up some more cash for those who are interested in buying (and for those who already have mortgages). I would expect mild growth for the next year – if we follow the December price rise (and this is just a prediction) then 12 months at 0.3% would give 3.6% growth.
    Let’s say somewhere between 2% and 5% growth would therefore not be an outlandish prediction.
    Remember also, by the time you realise that property values are heading upwards, you’ve missed the best buys!
    Also keep in mind that there are MANY property markets in Australia, so more careful research might point you towards regional areas, or units, or god-knows-what… I’ll certainly be looking, and I’m focussing on capital cities.
    Hope this helps, and good luck with your investing!

    Profile photo of xdrewxdrew
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    The markets are locking up. Thats an upward movement whether you like it or not.

    What happens when a market locks up?

    The 'ready sellers' in the suburb disappear totally off the market. The high end vanishes.

    What you are left with usually is the ones that cant sell .. the off the plans (they just continue to sell on until sold), the hard to sells and the overpriceds.

    And the only thing that recorrects that .. is people coming out and offering MORE for properties. To get the stock thats available.

    Thats an upward price movement.

    Take a look at any suburb in Melbourne (i've taken a ready snapshot of twenty two that i follow on a regular basis) and thats now the case.

    I dont know how Sydney is doing .. but its definitely locking up now in Melbourne.

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
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    Do not know about you guys, but market is going down in mine view in 2012, even more.
    I got few properties in 2011, looked at many more. And I can tell you that discounts of 10% are easy to get, 20% is still possible but getting harder, 30% is normally does not make it to general public and get’s sold via private channels.

    So, I see drop in values far below official 10% for 2012. That is for Brisbane.

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