Forum Replies Created
Hi shane
In the North Island try Tokoroa, Taumarunui, Te Kuiti, Wanganui, Marton, Gisborne, Rotorua and Wairoa.
For the South Island send Westan a PM.
Also try http://www.realenz.co.nz
Most houses for sale are listed on that site.Regards
Hi Guys
however your keeping your call costs down, please share… my fone bill is getting ridiculous now…Best way I know is to get rid of your cellphone.
I don’t have one because I feel I don’t need one.
Regards
Hi Guys
Here is a reply to the above article:
Property Crash Evidence is Absent!New Zealand house prices in general are set to plateau over the next 12 months and not crash (*see EXCEPTIONS below). I suspect Australia and the UK will return to the days of negative equity (seen in the 1990’s in the UK) for many homeowners/investors by 2006/07. A small interest rate lift could easily magnify the coming slump and create havoc in Australia and the UK but to a much lesser degree in NZ.
Consider these facts and then tell me NZ is in for a crash like Australia, and the UK:
1) Australia is on the wrong side of a 6 year boom.
The Uk is on the wrong side of a 4 year boom (which peaked with 30% growth in 2002).
NZ didn’t even have 3 years of boom in this cycle.2) Australian and UK prices have increased by over 80% in the last 5 years.
NZ prices haven’t even seen a 50% increase in the last 5 years.3) Australians have heavily over borrowed. They borrowed 10 times as much in the last 9 months as NZ’ers did! (Thats the equivalent of NZ’s TOTAL mortgage debt in just the last 9 months! i.e.$90 Billion).
NZers only borrowed $9 Billion in the last 9 months.
UK borrowings are increasing by around 9 Billion Pounds / month)4) Australians now owe over $570 Billion in mortgages, thats naerly 6.5 x NZ’s $90 Billion. (Aust population is only 5 x NZ’s)
The UK owe 800 Billion pounds.5) Australians have been buying on yields of 2-4%.
NZs yields have been more like 6-10%.* EXCEPTIONS
The areas which will have a significant drop in values as a result of NZ’s property slump will be:
1) Small towns (where many Australians are buying! These Australians have never seen small town NZ in tough economic times…)
2) Small inner city apartments (Oversupplied, ironically some of these have been developed by Australian developers and these apartments are being marketed to Australians as a good investment at what appear to be inflated prices ($150,000 for studios! The irony of it all! Remember the Gold Coast properties being sold to kiwis at inflated prices in the 90’s…)Answers to a few common questions at the moment:
Are we in for huge falls in values and a ‘property crash’?
NO! I don’t believe it for a minute. When you consider the genuine Key Drivers of the property cycle it becomes plain to see that we have not taken values to the absurd levels for example that the Australian major cities have taken their property values to (in relation to the Key Drivers like return on investment, property vacancy rates, construction levels, population growth etc). Whilst current levels of return on investment are low (@5-8%) they have not reached the absurdly low levels seen in the major Australian cities (@2-4%) nor do I expect them to reach those levels in this cycle, our property vacancy rates are not extreme (We don’t have lots of empty properties due to a lack of demand). I’m not discounting house price falls but simply can’t see the signs of a wholesale ‘crash’.
Will interest rates quickly crush property values?
NO! Sure they will have an impact on some overextended borrowers but an increase in wholesale rates by even 1% p.a. would not immediately ‘crush’ property values. Given enough time then yes they could have a temporary influence on market values and here’s why. A third (33%) of all mortgages are on floating rates however another 30% are on a fixed term of less than 12 months.
So if interest rates did spike or rise quickly it will take some time for this effect to impact on borrowers affordability.Will the oversupply in the Auckland inner city apartment market cause the collapse of property values across Auckland?
NO! I fail to see how a niche market like inner city apartments can affect the value of the average suburban home for example.
There are a total of @500,000 properties in greater Auckland and only @10,000 of these are inner city apartments (i.e. 2%) so whilst I believe there will be some decrease in rents across Auckland as a result of a ‘ripple’ effect emanating from the expected oversupply of inner city apartments I do not believe that this will impact on values to the same degree. Just think about the leaky building syndrome… Did that result in the collapse of every properties value across Auckland? NO, but it has certainly impacted on the value of those type of properties. The same can be expected to happen with inner city apartment values. In the short term inner city apartment values will suffer a correction (especially the under 40sqm ones) as rents find their new levels but this will not collapse values across Auckland.Doesn’t New Zealand just follow the Australian property market pattern (and therefore we are in for huge falls in values and a ‘property crash’?)
NO! Some commentators would have us believe that NZ house prices always follow Australian house prices about 1 year later but my research reveals this not to be the case. New Zealand clearly does not automatically follow in the footsteps of Australia in respect of house price growth. In the mid 1990’s NZ had a Boom but Australia did not (nor did it in the early 1990’s.
There is clearly no correlation throughout the whole decade of the 1990’s and was only very recently in the year of 2001-02.Also when I considered the trend of NZ versus Australian house price growth I found that New Zealands long term growth (last 14 years) is only about a third of Australias!
The economist article shows by how much prices would need to fall to get back to their long-term average (over the last 28 years), assuming that the decline takes place over four years and that wages rise at a pace similar to that in the recent past. This is how they ascertain that house prices in NZ must fall by 15% to get back to that long-term average.
What they haven’t taken account of is the financial deregulation we saw in the mid 1980’s resulting in making mortgage finance more accessible for property investment and also the baby boomers investment pattern impacting on house prices due to direct property investment becoming favourable since the mid 1990’s (rather than the old days of superannuation schemes).
In summary just because some other countries like Australia and the UK have heavily over-inflated house prices which will crash significantly this doesn’t automatically mean that NZ will follow suit. There is a need to consider the complete makeup of the economy and the state of the fundamentals specifically driving the boom.
In my study of historic property cycles in NZ,Australia,USA and the UK I found that the stronger the growth in a boom the higher the likelihood of a correction (negative growth) in the following slump.
As Australian property market commentator Neil Jenman said to me this week “Australia has gone insane over house prices but NZ looks like it’s just on the brink of going insane”. Neil shares my opinion that NZ’s property market will not see the same correction as Australia.
_________________
Kieran Trass
Hybrid GroupRegards
Hi Guys
Their finder in Tokoroa is the local dentist.
In South Auckland their finder also writes a column in the KPI Magazine on a house she is having renovated.
Regards
Hi Guys
Oh no, I see this topic of Chan$ clones has resurfaced again.
Jet Blue,
Jet$
Chan$
JetDollars
RedJet
Redwing
WingRed$
ChandollarsI just knew there were clones.
And I am right, there are clones all over the place.Regards
Hi guys
Went and listened to Robert Kiyosaki in Auckland on Sunday. I didn’t learn anything new. He kept pushing what he has already said in his books and kept pushing his educational packs and books.
I suppose it was interesting listening to the great man in the flesh.
After the show I was amazed at how many people were buying all his educational packs. The whole shooting box could be bought for about NZ$850 on special down from $1500.
Anyway the entrance fee is tax deductible.
Regards
Hi Startingout
Have a search on http://www.propertytalk.co.nz
I am sure you should find something of interest.Regards
Hi Guys
And we all know what a pain in the butt piles can be…Ahhhhh yes, BUT we don’t have termites, unless they are of the two legged variety.
Anyway most of the piles are now made of concrete.
Regards
Hi Greatpig
Residential property and rents for same are excluded from GST.
Therefore when you buy a house or unit for rent you pay no GST and pay no GST on rents received.
However commercial is different.
Regards
Hi Pursefattener
For Hamilton try: http://www.hcc.govt.nz/
For statistics for the whole country try:
http://xtabs.stats.govt.nz/eng/statsbyarea/area_urban.aspRegards
Hi Guys
Mini said
prices are cheap right now because the mill closed,To elaborate on this statement CHH Tokoroa’s biggest employer owned a saw mill which closed at Xmas because it was inefficient to run. Approx 100 people lost their jobs. Some have found employment in the immediate area and are still living in Tokoroa.Others have moved.
CHH also have a pulp and paper mill on which they spent $380m in tha last few years upgrading it.This mill employs about 300 people and a large group of workers are dependent on it.
As far as I know there are no plans to close it. It is one of the more efficient mills that International Papers operates.I also have properties in Tokoroa and I am more than happy with my tenants.
Regards
Hi James
Article in Southland Times today states:
House prices will fall: report
21 May 2004
By JULIE ASHERSouthern house prices will fall in the next two years as the population drops, according to a report prepared by economic analysts Infometrics.
The report, for PMI Mortgage Insurance, says property in Southland and Otago has become overvalued. While prices were likely to rise 20 percent for the year ending in June, they would fall 10 percent in the following two years to June 2006.
Southland’s population grew just 0.3 percent between June 2001 and June 2003 while Otago, including the Wakatipu, gained 1.2 percent in the same period.
Overseas migrants inflated the Southland population but there was still a net outflow of people moving to other provinces, mostly Otago and Canterbury, the report says.
House sales seemed to be at a peak. Southland, which was one of the first areas to recover from the sales slump in 2000-01, was showing the earliest signs of slowdown now.
House price growth in Southland peaked at 45 percent per annum last year but had slipped back to 20 percent per annum by February this year.
“For the region as a whole, we predict that average house prices in June 2006 will be at a similar level as they were in September 2003.”
The number of properties sold in Otago and Southland had been exceptionally strong in the past three years but that was not likely to continue, the report says.
Infometrics predicts a 30 percent drop in sales in the two years to June 2006, with the slump most keenly felt in Southland.
New houses were being built in Southland and Otago faster than the national average but that was about to change, according to the report.
The number of new dwellings being built would fall as the population declines.
Annual consents for new dwellings would fall 45 percent across Otago and Southland between next month and June 2006, the report says.
That compared with a predicated decline of 26 percent across the whole country during that time.
Rental properties were returning less to their owners – gross yield rentals were down from 9.8 percent in October 2002 to 7.4 percent in January – while being worth more, which suggested real estate in the region had become overvalued, the report says.
Remember do your due diligence.
Regards
RegardsHi James
Have a look at this site:
http://www.propertytalk.co.nz/modules.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=241In particular:
http://xtabs.stats.govt.nz/eng/statsbyarea/area_urban.aspRemember last census was done in 2001 and NZ has had big increase in immigrants since then.
Regards
Hi G7
You said:
I’ve just thrown my hat in the ring, another 7 posts and and I’m a shoe-inMaybe 707 more posts and you might be asked by the guru himself and not in the Funnies either.
You have to show that you can answer forumites questions in a responsible and sensitive way and show some/alot of knowledge on the subject of property investing.
Regards
Hi westan
Leasehold property in Napier is leased for 21 years before renewal at 5% of the land value.
And yes when it comes up for renewal could be a frightening wake up call to the house owner.
All house owners have until September to freehold the land by a law passed by Governemnt. Many houseowners have done so and are laughing all the way to the bank.
Regards
Hi Guys
Going rate for a PM in Tokoroa NZ is about 10% + GST.
But it varies around the country.Regards
Hi Mel
Congratulations on reaching 20 tons.
I was hoping I might get different coloured stars – but not to beYou could always start with a new name, then you would have a change of coloured stars.
Regards
Hi Kay
Congrats from this side of the Tasman.
Keep those thoughtful and valued postings coming.
Regards
Hi Guys
NZ has been leading the world for quite awhile now.
Just wait until the USA starts increasing their interest rate, you won’t see NZ’s for dust.
NZ’s interest rate will go up again next month and should be around 6% some time before Xmas.
I am glad I fixed my last two loans for 5yrs but have a couple due to be refixed in the next few months damn it.
Regards
Hi Guys
If you are really worried about earthquakes have a look at this site:
Personally, I am more worried about what is going on in Iraq.
Regards
