QLD- Brisbane property increases

Its fair to say that Qld property market is very different to the rest of the country’s (WA’s is pretty solid as well)

I don’t think the QLD prop. mkt is sufficiently large enough to make a significant influence on the RBA’s future decisions.

I just hope the QLD renaissance continues for a little while longer.

James

From today’s The Age:

In Melbourne, house prices grew by just 3.8 per cent during the quarter, compared with growth of 12 per cent in Brisbane, 5.3 per cent in Sydney and 6 per cent nationally.

Over the year, Melbourne house prices rose by 12.5 per cent, well below Brisbane, where prices surged 35.1 per cent. Business research firm BIS Shrapnel’s Robert Mellor said the figures were a last hurrah for Sydney and Melbourne, but prices in Brisbane – and to a lesser extent Perth and Adelaide – had yet to peak.

Heres an excerpt from an article from NAB which validates the above.

• Capital city house prices rose a further 6.0% in
the December quarter, the largest quarterly rise
since the late 1980s.
• However there is evidence that relatively more
sales at the upper end of the market have
biased up the median price rises in Q4.

Table 1: House Price Growth – December 2003
Region Quarter Year

Australian Capital Cities Average 6.0 18.9
Sydney 5.3 15.5
Melbourne 3.8 12.5
Brisbane 12.0 35.1
Adelaide 6.4 24.2
Perth 5.1 22.2
Hobart 3.2 21.4
Darwin 6.7 13.2
Canberra 6.6 25.3

Building Approvals Ease Further
Building Approvals fell by 3.3% in January, the fourth
consecutive decline. Private housing was down 4.4%
and multi-units were 3.1% higher. Approvals for public
sector housing posted the largest decline (-37.5%),
although the absolute numbers are quite small.
By state, monthly declines were seen in every state
except Victoria. The largest declines were in South
Australia (-19.4%), WA (-12.9%) and NSW (-12.8%). On
a trend basis, WA is showing flat growth, while all other states are off their peak.

Policy Implications
The monthly building approvals and housing finance
data have shown consecutive declines since their peaks
in October. However the official quarterly house price
data to end-2003 remain solid, even allowing for the
compositional effects. With household debt levels still
rising, the RBA will maintain its tightening bias until
signs of cooling in housing prices and credit are
confirmed.

I also agreed!

Warm Regards

ChanDollars
[Keep going, you’re on your way to Frolic Freedom!]

Being able to negotiate a price which might be $20k-30k, or whatever the figure is, below supposed reserve price, is nothing more than what happens every day in every market. Even in a boom period.

There is a difference between falling prices / slowing growth (still increasing mind you) and purchasing price below vendors asking price.

James

That was more directed to teabagted.

James

Thank you HousesOnly and Chan$ for agreeing with me. People agreeing with me is my favourite sound. I’d like to add further comments/info. to support my belief that official figures for growth are unreliable. I know people in the earth moving business and they were telling me that before Christmas operators of earth moving machinery were like royalty, because there was such a shortage, i.e. there was so much work. Now there is a total reversal of the situation with many operators chasing one job. At the same time, I was told by a plumber working on new houses that he had more work than he could cope with. What does this mean? Digger drivers with little work and tradesmen with plenty? It means that there are housing developments still to be finished, however the fact that so many earth moving operators are out of work means that once they have completed the earth moving, there’s no work replacing it. The tradesmen still have work because that is the next stage of completion. The unemployed digger drivers are a warning sign. You will also find partly built houses that appear to be abandoned. The framework is up but weathering, meaning work has stopped on them. Some smaller developers may have decided to cut their losses.
This does not show up in the official figures. What shows up is that there is still building going on. What people don’t understand is that the new housing market does not come to a sudden halt when things go bad. Developments that have been committed to have to be completed, creating the appearance that rapid growth is still continuing. Once again, I realise that this is based on hearsay, but it is hearsay at the coal face.

Regards
teabagted