[gmh454Member@gmh454Join Date: 2003Post Count: 537]

June 24, 2004 - 1:54 am

Originally posted by kay henry:

Yack

The Americans have been talking up this IR rise for so long- i wish they’d just hurry up and do it!

As for us, I doubt their measly IR rise will affect us. Our market conditions are still pretty stable.

kay henry

We are currently up 4.+% on the US rates. O/S investors like that and buy our funds. Our $$ moves up, net result imports cheaper and inflation stays low. (simplification)

If they raise their rates 3% we follow or our $$$ drops and inflation starts.
Reserve can raise rates to :-

a) Halt inflation

b) Support the $$, ….something they don’t normally do.

Oh yeah …don’t forget China, it has a inflation problem right now.

My guess anyway.

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June 16, 2004 - 10:16 pm

Originally posted by SALACIOUS:

Hello,

: Interest rates will go up ,and sharemarket will bounce higher.

[biggrin]

I’m no expert but thought when rates rise the stock market will drop. Cost of capital is higher, and the rate of return compared to risk, is lower.
Got to factor the inflation rate in there somewhere, but don’t think that the market should jump, when rates jump.
Could be wrong, will depend on which way the Lemmings run.

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June 10, 2004 - 9:30 pm

I think you know the answer. Have not had specific experience, but unless they have strong assets (renting so guess they don’t) if you spend more money, then you will win a moral victory, and $10 per week ( may be $50) but after week one it will stop, and back to court you will go, etc., etc.,
If someone has had sucess, please post, but my experience shows the “bottom feeders” are looked after in court.

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May 31, 2004 - 5:55 am

Originally posted by kay henry:

residentialwealth,

it’s not like the banks are going to be doing margin calls of people for the foreseeable future,

kay henry

Kay, firstly I agree, but I was at a lunch with a broker about 21/2 yrs agao, when the market looked like overheating, and I and others quizzed him about lenders being worried. He told us that many loans written today, have a clause that allows the lender to trigger a mortgage sale if the equity/debt ratio shifts too much.

Never thought too much about that till now.
Don’t know how common this is but am sure it is only in the fine print and many, ppl who may have such a loan would be oblivious to the risk.

Terry

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May 31, 2004 - 2:55 am

Originally posted by residentialwealth:

A new slant I read on the weekend to this is NEGATIVE EQUITY.

Consider a person/couple purchasing a property in the last few years with a 90% plus loan and now the property has devalued by 15% plus, can this happen, yes!, keep an eye out in the news.[confused2]

Another term is “upside down equity”.

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May 31, 2004 - 2:52 am

Originally posted by residentialwealth:

A new slant I read on the weekend to this is NEGATIVE EQUITY.

Consider a person/couple purchasing a property in the last few years with a 90% plus loan and now the property has devalued by 15% plus, can this happen, yes!, keep an eye out in the news.[confused2]

Happened back in 1991, and made the ACA type shows with the Aussie battlers bewildered how this could happen.Suburbs like Campelltown in Sydney saw it.

Thought they might regulate against 95% lends after this but never did.

Maybe this time.

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May 31, 2004 - 2:47 am

I agree with Yack on this, not many were using it though a lot of the “Sales Teams ” used to promote it.

Most good accountants were waiting for this, and some returns will need amending, but think it will be a minor ripple.

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May 30, 2004 - 11:12 pm

Originally posted by melbear:

Not sure quite how relevant, but as I don’t know Sydney, and recognised Glenhaven, I thought I would share.

Glenhaven is about to (or may have started already) have a huuuge retirement village type development happening there. We had the chance to provide Mezz funding to the developer, but some of my syndicate were a bit slow in making a decision so we dipped out. From memory it might have been a couple hundred villas in two stages….

Don’t have the plans anymore and it was mid to late last year, so not certain of details….

Cheers
Mel

Mel they have now outlawed further such developments, in the hills on acreage.

Acreage in Glenhaven has however jumped since mid last year, with many 2M+ sales since Decmember, and others as late as this month. Private puchases by ppl buying land banks.

If they show us 2.5M we will walk too.

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May 28, 2004 - 5:14 am

Originally posted by kay henry:

Yes gmh :+P Guess you have a problem with that ) It’s a growth property, gmh. Someone has to buy city properties, and this time, it’s me. the yield will probably be 8% with depreciation schedule. Good enough for this investor.

kay henry

Kay was not querying your strategy, just seeking info. Thanks

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May 28, 2004 - 3:10 am

Originally posted by kay henry:

gmh,

I had no problems in getting a loan for my apartment in sydney- @ 70% LVR.
kay henry

Thanks Kay, can you tell me your finance source, a bank, or otherwise, and was it CBD highrise.

From your memory, your Unit is about 4 yrs old, that correct.
Thanks again for info. Knowledge makes smart investors.

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May 28, 2004 - 1:51 am

Originally posted by Ibuycashflow:

Do you think there maybe some “bargains” to be had in Sydney at the moment?

Cheers
Jeff

Jeff, absolutely not. Its better value than last year, but still too many sellers and not enough buyers to say we have reached a balanced market.
Maybe in 12+ mths.

Have big bag of cash but not spending it until I see them cry. Worked last time.

(I meant that in a socially responsible caring way….but business is business )

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May 28, 2004 - 1:46 am

Originally posted by kay henry:

recoveryman ;O)

Definitely negatively geared, 4 year old city apartment- yield 6%. I am VERY happy with the purchase

Presume your talking gross, return ????

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May 27, 2004 - 9:57 pm

Quote:

Originally posted by redwing:

In Perth at least, vacany rates are down and the median rental price is up to $165 p/wk..

Maybe time for a rent increase for those long overdue..[thumbsupanim]..check rentals in your IP areas

REDWING

Sounds good for Perth, but in Sydney (which leads the OZ market) the amount of for lease signs in some suburbs in amazing. Not hyping it but have never seen anything like this in the other cycles. Each cycle finished with for sale signs sitting unchanged for month after month, but never this number and never the “for lease “signs.

Not talking units or town houses but houses, lots of them in Glenhaven, Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills,
etc etc.

Where will rents go now, when you have almost unlimited choice of accomadation.

First the for lease sign then the for sale.

Other interesting sign is the 3 houses in a row for sale in one block (he took two off after 2 weeks as he realised he was killing his own chances of sale ) and for lease in another. Sure sign these two “devilupahs” have given up on this cycle.

Glad to see Perth is still going strong.

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May 27, 2004 - 9:45 pm

Originally posted by paul_s:

Originally posted by gmh454:

Originally posted by kaloni:

just to show you how bad the
docklands in melbourne are at the moment
a unit auctioned saturday was bought off the plans
2001 for about 955k was sold for 715k

Sounds bad but if they are an o/s buyer, when you take currency shifts into account, they may have broken even. Won’t help stabilse prices though.

that one was a local buyer, he was occupying it when it sold. From what I can see of it 20-25% losses are fairly common in southbank and docklands for those who bought of the plan in the last few years. I wouldn’t go as far as to say the market has fallen in those areas though, I think it more a case of people paying way above the market off the plan.

Thanks for that, owch that’s gotta hurt. I think time will show your comment about the price of OTP units may be correct.

Funny how one overvalued apartment sets the benchmark for the next. Those ppl never did their homework but relied on sales info as if it was independant advice.

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May 27, 2004 - 4:29 am

Quote:

Originally posted by ghotib:

.

gmh54 (any relation to the Kingswood?)

(/quote)

its a 1974 HQ Statesman that raced at Castlereigh in 74/75 and ran bests of 11.68 and 132mph, both under the Nat record at the time.

Very interesting history, and will be getting magazine publicity soon,

Hang on forgot I was on a property board instead of a drag racing site.

thanks for asking

Terry

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May 27, 2004 - 3:08 am

Originally posted by yack:

However is it possible to argue that as you have properties in Aust – as part of your investing expenses – you are looking for investments overseas.

Yack nice point, from memory if you are selling wigdgets, in OZ and do a O/S sales trip, unless you are selling any O/S before the trip, the trip is capital.
I’m not checking the books this is from memory, but since then they have gotten tougher, so would not be optimistic

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May 27, 2004 - 2:31 am

Originally posted by thefirstbruce:

Originally posted by kay henry:

However, it’s possible that due to the budget constraints the ABC works under, maybe they run out of time trying to find a male victim of surrendered financial responsibility in the time that it took them to find two female victims.

I’m not that sure we did’nt see any male victims. the diff was the women after the “After” stories the men may be the “before”

Terry

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May 27, 2004 - 12:48 am

Quote:

Originally posted by yack:

With tax cuts and wage rises to low income earners, this will have the effect of supporting home values. eg. more money to pay increased rents and more cash in pocket to pay home loans.

As ususal comments appreciated. I probably missed something too.

(/quote)

Yack I think you have covered most, but the one you missed is one we are not used to considering, and that is China. this I have been lead to believe is having a greater effect on oil than Iraq, and may well have a enormous influence on inflation and interest rates in the future. i think there inflation level is running at around 10% and they have to start pushing rates to restrain it.

Also Europe has been stagnant while digesting the old eastern bloc. It may now awake.

Inflation will drive rates.

Only opinions, comments appreciated.

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May 26, 2004 - 10:35 pm

Originally posted by AusProp:

are prices really falling in Syd / Melb? Perth is still rising strongly John – 0419 198 856

Last night on PM the ABC radio in depth news service (highly recommend) they said that for the 1/4 ended 31/03/04 official house prices in Sydney dropped 7% and Melb 13%. Unit prices did worse.
For the rest of Aust they said week to stagnant…..

Now this was for March 1/4, think its dropped a couple of more notches since then.

The REI put the spin on it that taken annually the market was up for the yr ended 31/03/04.
Gotta love statistics. Gotta love REI.

If you were a solicitor accountant or doctor and made statements deliberatley to mislead you would be in serious trouble.REI are exempt.

Glad to see you are still optomistic,

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May 26, 2004 - 6:29 am

Originally posted by AusProp:

This is what the baby boomers are up against – just as Kiyosaki has predicted . there may well be a huge investment boom as the boomers have no other option, they don’t have the luxury of time to sit back and do nothing.

Hmmmmm…don’t you think that is exactly what has been happening ????

Now lets take it further. So many naive investors will lose on this (Bought there 3 IP units off the plan since 2000 ) and when the markets dumps them out they will even have less to live off in retirment than before.

Better hope the inheritance is agood one.