Forum Replies Created
- Originally posted by ctaing:
Take today’s share market for example; ouch, it hurts. …..
Where are the markets all heading 2007/08?
The point is, a correction cannot be ruled out ………
Yep, with the correction on Monday I was down 66% of my trading float, am currently back up 78% for this year…..its all in how you look at it and decide if you’re a panic merchant or not.
Design your trading plan (shares or r/e)…accept that corrections happen……trade your plan to the letter of the law……profit is just a bi-product, not a goal.
Currently in negotiation over another r/e deal…don’t care if it ‘looks like’ the market is slowing. I’ll take action WHEN my fallback position throws up a red flag.
I am not a guru….but I’d hazard a guess that the gurus probably do the same thing……
Cheers
Trading your plan is the goal – profits are the reward.
Well, the media never lets the facts get in the way of a good story…but then…if they keep saying rent is going to increase then we can get away with raising ours accordingly because people will expect it & it will in effect become a reality, and in turn people will hate paying high rent so they’ll look for their own place so the ol’ supply n demand thing will come back into play and property prices could rise again – win win really
Trading your plan is the goal – profits are the reward.
Originally posted by picklesam:hi …. not academically or business smart, i struggled through highschool but still made it to uni………don’t know how i can get a better income job, I’m on a $95k package… ……
I left school at 15.
Never earned more than 45k p/a
Worked for the government – souless and draining
Had businesses – average
Now own 3 houses – well the bank does
Wish I was on 95K …so its all relative – just make the most of what you haveTrading your plan is the goal – profits are the reward.
Hi Bez
I would say that you are never dreaming as you have to start somewhere.
What you may want to consider is ways of building your savings to get to a position where you can invest in property.
Options might be:
– Seek out others in a similar position and join forces
– Look into cheaper properties in areas other than where you may live
– Look at other investing streams to build your capital, ie; shares.
I’m sure others may have some suggestions for you too.
Cheers
Originally posted by roachy:Originally posted by wealth4life.com:Several high level friends of ours are predicting worse to come.
Low Doc home loans forclosurers are increasing at an alarming level, with one mortgage management company telling us that the only department in their group growing is the bank closure department.
Credit card debt in australia is at new levels reaching over 30 billion dollars and people aren’t paying their cards off but opting to get new ones with lower rates then max them out as well, some thing has to give here!
The Perth boom is about to go the other way with reports saying that the average house sale is now dearer than QLD who has a larger population base.
Banks are tightening their lending criteria and the valuers are getting harder on vals of residential properties.
I am interested in finding out how many people that read these threads are really positive and what you believe is a good investment to get into.
D
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Hi Roachy.
This one is not solely directed at you but anyone that can tell me.
BANK FORCLOSURE DEPARTMENT – is there anywhere in Aus that you can get details on this? ie; advertised properties that are going through forclosure?
Bank valuations – nto sure what state you are in but interestingly I just had one of my properties valued to use against another purchase and it came in substantially better than I thought it would. That’s not to say its the same across the board. Interestingly, the same company undervalued it (I consider) when the ‘boom’ was about 1/3 the way through. I guess there’s that human eliment again
Positive – yep – me. Always positive as it doesn’t matter what’s happening I just follow my plan. If the market does fall then a) new or different opportunities will present themselves and b) some other part of the economic clock may be booming so its time to jump aboard that one.
Hi perthman.
I too am in Perth and keep an eye on movements. The great thing about press is, it may not be true, but can become self fullfilling and work in our favour, ie; we can buy property cheaper. My thoughts anyway
Originally posted by perthman:average time to sell …….65 days.
I hadn’t seen that one, the Sundry Crimes
reported 30 days yesterday I think it was?Originally posted by perthman:….. falls of over 10% in advertised to sale price.
Yippee!! Now maybe I can get some of tose rejuves I’ve been missing out on because of all the bulls in the market!
Originally posted by perthman:……the experts in the know that the property boom is over and the facts that support this.
…….still agents writing articles refuting this.
Hmmm, and the experts are??? Agents, developers, property investors etc etc….none of them have a vested interest in picking up property cheaper do they?
Originally posted by perthman:I believe that this does offer opportunities to those investors that are cashed up and are prepared to start offering ridiculous offers to nervous sellers.
See “Yippee” above – LOL
Originally posted by perthman:Heaven forbid – There might just be something in that term called a “cycle”.
For sure.
Because I trade the share market as well I can’t help but draw similarities between the two. Every time the “All ords” takes a dip the doomsdayers appear. I guess the only trouble with either market is ‘the little guy’ or should I say ‘the uneducated’ are the ones that get tanked not realising that the press is most likely the least reliable source of information. If they react to every change then they just get burnt and end up spending a fortune on ‘operating costs’.
R/E or Shares – no plan – then quite likely no future.
Every investment should be assessed for its value today, and then, where do I step out. That’s BEFORE I buy it – not how much am I going to make out of this as as far as I know no-one has got their flux capacitor working yet
Thanks GMH
Long live the big block stato
Oh yes, 1st acquisition for the new home – 2 post hoist so I don’t have to keep crawling under the race car! – and then slip in a shed extension as well – we’ve got 2500 sqm to play with.
Cheers
Hi GMH
I hear what you are saying – but – like I said it depends on what you are buying for. In our case this is a long term investment – a new home.
Will prices drop? Possibly, but not guaranteed.
Did we buy at the right price? It is comfortable to us and within our budget…AND we have an exit strategy if required.Originally posted by gmh454:Can Am that is how Sydney started.
…..Flemings mansion on the Georges river sold recently at a loss……
I don’t know the Flemings place, but, am assuming that is is maybe a multi million dollar property? MY own observations have been that this area and the LOWEST prices are usually the worste effected in times of trouble. I guess when you consider pricing structure then we have bought into what may be the slightly higher than normal bracket for those with good income. Does that mean anything – no not really as people from all walks of life can get themselves into trouble. We have done this deal as a no money down deal.
Originally posted by gmh454:….. I put it on the market and did not get a nibble. ……after Christmas. …….the market must “bounce ” back ……
……and another rise next year……
A friend who is also an agent has said that some agencies are “re-evaluating” client property prices in order to execute a faster sale. WA has been very much subjected to over inflated prices and people getting into bidding wars paying more than teh asking price. The area we bought in we have been monitoring for over a year and the “right” place just never came up. One came close but got taken off the market when I started asking for permission to get shire plans for all the improvements
The one we have bought is actually 119k cheaper and conservatively valued at 40k more than we paid for it. They didn’t NEED to sell, but we made it attractive with some concessions we made to them, mainly settlement times.After Christmas…..A lot of people make this assumption about share trading too (not saying its wrong or right btw). I consider that when I am looking at making a deal then I consider if what I am presented with now is fair, and if so, do it. I have no preconceptions that if I have bought high that the market will bounce back if it falls over. My rule of thumb is – where is my stop loss – that is the only true value of anything.
Another rise….interestingly, our mortgage broker said (in the particular product we were looking at) not to lock in a fixed rate just yet, go for a variable and by the time the loan comes through the new lower fixed rate should be in place. Although yes, there seems to be a good chance, or an undercurrent of thought, that the “advertised offical rates” may go up again next year – who knows? And if anyone does know can they also tell me when they will go back down so I can decide on a 1,3 or 5 year fixed contract – LOL
Originally posted by L.A Aussie:Originally posted by wealth4life.com:Hi GMH,
I don’t think the smart people are buying property at the moment, I think the smart investors are waiting till after xmas possibly
Doh – joined the not too smart ranks – just put in an offer on $730k worth of property
Seriously though, I guess it depends on what you’re buying it for. This is to live in, well, for my company to live in
Perth is slowing, but in sales only at this stage it seems. Prices have become ‘negotiable’ rather than dropping like a lead balloon. I’d suspect your lower socio-economic areas will be effected first, with high level property still selling from what I can see coming across my desk.
It doesn’t matter when you buy – there are always those that say “You shouldn’t do it now”. Some of those people (that I’ve met) still don’t own a house……
Thanks again for the figures. I guess as with any stats (not saying they are incorrect or skewed in any way) its all in how you interpret things.
I’d hope that the ABS don’t do like I used to when I worked for the Gov’t and my boss would walk in and say he needs some figures to answer a parlimentary inquiry and blah blash blah, and my reply was always “what do you need it to say” LOL. [blink]
Anyway – off track a bit there. Can you tell its a boring day at work today ??
I guess if we considered that there were no additions to population through immigration/birth/etc then an increase in owners (line graph) over a 5 year period could be naturaly expected?
In the second line chart do you think it highlights the increase in owners in the 30+ “baby producing I’d better settle down” years?
Could it also be showing that since the ‘boom’ more people have done the “I’d better buy now before its too late” routine? Coupled with the boom comes all the R/E gurus and companies spruking how good it is to own R/E and makes lots of money so people buy?
(I see the same effect in the share market through cycles – people flood in to the market as its runnning up seeking education from us and others and then run away as it goes down (those that try to go it alone and punt) – not knowing they can actually make more money as it goes down, but don’t tell them all or it might cut my profits – LOL
I’m assuming the line graph is not representing the “whole portion” of people and only those with a mortgage as an owner as the line drops radically in the older age groups, ie, at about the time when their mortgage is paid off?
Theres also more renters than in 99 so is this representative of older people going into more age car facilities that they ‘rent’ or does it mean we are immigrating more 50+ people?
QUOTE “The lower version shows ….the demand for purchase would always be met by supply of sales.”
Does it? Where does the number of houses under construction show up in the stats? Doesn’t it just show that as people get older more move from “want to buy” to “bought” to “own”?
QUOTE: “The top version of the second chart shows that short of a massive increase in immigration and/or a doubling of the birth-rate, this situation will soon be very unbalanced.”
I guess it is all in how you read things. We keep hearing that we are all going to be in trouble as all the Baby boomers get pensioned out and then begin to ‘expire’, (not enough pension money to go round, too many houses/shares on the market etc etc)and yet, does this graph tend to show that they can be absorbed by the pre-boomers in numbers, many of whom are breeding later in life so there will be more “workers” joining the stats in years to come.
In general “people” seem to be (my impression) starting earlier due to there being more money/education around than ever (ie; when I was in my 20’s no-one thought about buying assetts – that was a far to ‘old person’ thing to do). How many times currently do we here now about millionares in their 20’s, and earlier!!
I guess the old 3% rule will be around for a long time, rich get richer and all that, but on the whole my general impression of every day life, not stats or media, is that younger people are richer. And yes, that’s what my father said too and probably his father, and I would agree with him, I have more now than he ever had, and yet I have less than many younger than me. As each generation gets richer they give their children a better head start?
The times are a changing
Be wise, use risk management, so it doesn’t matter what happens, so long as you have a fall back position.
And then I may be way off mark……………
Originally posted by foundation:I’ve whipped up some graphs to help the discussion about home ownership proportions, future demand, etc.
Thanks Foundation. It’s good to see some figures behind things.
Where do you get your numbers from?
If I’m reading it right then ‘nothings really changed’ ?? But then its only a 5 year difference so not sure if it is reflective of anything?
Cheers
S
Originally posted by gmh454:.
Having said that …….seriously how many people who qualify for a first home owners grant, have not taken it up.
Are you working on the theory that the human race stopped spawning at some point?
reported 30 days yesterday I think it was?
