hi
i am looking at buying a property in the ipswich area in queensland, now i have heard that prices there are set to fall around $60,000 does this sound right to you, i feel this is a bit of an over statement would you agree….
Although the market has slown down, I see no signs of the types of falls you are refering to. There seems to be alack of property on the market. It will be interesting to see what happens in the spring markets
Nigel Kibel
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Leaving aside the apparent contradiction
Although the market has slown downThere seems to be alack of property on the market.[blink]…
I see no signs of the types of falls you are refering to.What? Nowhere or just Ipswitch in particular? According to the REIV, Melbourne median house prices have fallen $18,000 in just 3 months!
the REIV’s most recent March quarter figures showed a decline of 4.9 per cent in the median price to $352,000 Linkand $35,000 since December 2003!Link
Brisbane has seen falls of 3% over the same period. Why on earth anyone would think that a cultural backwater like Ipswitch would be immune?
It will be interesting to see what happens in the spring marketsI very much doubt it will be interesting at all. Except to read the hilarious spin the various real estate organisations come up with when the ‘spring bounce’ fails to materialise!
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]
I think you can have lack of stock but a slow market. Unless I had to sell right now, I’d be holding off, hence the lack of stock.
I went to an inner suburban auction Saturday, beautifully finished new townhouse. Bizarre auction … hardly anyone there. First two bids were vendor bids, then the auctioneer went for instructions and two sales people worked on the two interested parties (took about 30 minutes, while we stood around like stale bottles of beer – some people left but we wanted to see the outcome).
Was sold under the hammer. I can only assume that they wanted the sale under the hammer so it was unconditional. If they had passed it in and then negotiated, the buyers could have added clauses.
Anyway, one of the agents said things have been looking better for about two months (inner Southside). Don’t know if it is just spin.
However, I am watching closely two houses in the streets around one of our IPs(same suburb as the auction) because the asking prices are very high (which is good for us if they achieve them). If these houses go anywhere near what they are asking, I’ll be amazed.
Watching with interest, Wylie.
Originally posted by Wylie:I think you can have lack of stock but a slow market. Unless I had to sell right now, I’d be holding off, hence the lack of stock.
Yes, but I dispute that being the ‘problem’ at the moment. It’s not a lack of stock, it’s a lack of sales. Average time on the market is up around 50% in east coast capitals, indicating an excess of stock outstripping demand. To see for yourself, use one of the online RE sales sites – count the total number of properties for sale in a suburb, and check back regularly. Believe me, the numbers are rising.
Cheers, F[cowboy2]Originally posted by bestbest1:hi
i am looking at buying a property in the ipswich area in queensland, now i have heard that prices there are set to fall around $60,000
Hi bestbet.
Where exactly did you hear this info from?
Originally posted by foundation:Originally posted by Wylie:I think you can have lack of stock but a slow market. Unless I had to sell right now, I’d be holding off, hence the lack of stock.
Yes, but I dispute that being the ‘problem’ at the moment. It’s not a lack of stock, it’s a lack of sales. Average time on the market is up around 50% in east coast capitals, indicating an excess of stock outstripping demand. To see for yourself, use one of the online RE sales sites – count the total number of properties for sale in a suburb, and check back regularly. Believe me, the numbers are rising.
Cheers, F[cowboy2]I’m sure the numbers ARE rising, but not so as to stimulate a fall of over 60% in value (current median is around $208,000). That, as you rightly point out, wouldn’t happen in a vacuum and would spell a disastrous fall for real estate across the country. It also wouldn’t happen, as the amount of cashflow positive cheap roperties would have us all buying as fast as possible, thereby supporting the price.
… A $60k drop from $208k is only 29%.
That would take the median Ipswich house to $148k, which admittedly sounds cheap, but only comparatively.
Rent would still need to be well above $200/w to make that an attractive cf+ deal, and I believe there are plenty of 3 bed houses renting for $200 and less.Regarding house price perception – I was talking to my parents recently on the subject. They were looking at purchasing their 5th IP in a small country town for around the $150k mark. They informed me that it was a “very good price for what you get” to which I reminded them that when I was living in Melbourne in the mid 90s, the house I lived in (E. Brunswick) was valued at $180k. Today that same house would be well into the $300k’s. If the mid 90s value was adjusted for inflation it would be around $240k for a current rental yield of about 6%. I expect that value to again be reached within the next 2-4 years through a combination of falling nominal prices and inflation. If I’m right, it sure won’t make $150k for a house in povertyville look like such a “very good price for what you get”. It’s all relative, see.
Regards, F.[cowboy2]
PS – Yes, my parents still talk to me.
I went to an inner suburban auction Saturday, beautifully finished new townhouse. Bizarre auction … hardly anyone there. First two bids were vendor bids, then the auctioneer went for instructions and two sales people worked on the two interested parties (took about 30 minutes, while we stood around like stale bottles of beer – some people left but we wanted to see the outcome).Not bizarre at all. That sounds like every auction I’ve been to in Sydney in the past 6 months.
FWIW, I can’t see a rapid fall in prices happening over the next few years, rather, I see a slow grinding decline for a decade or so. The market will only pick up when people stop talking about their investment properties at dinner parties.
Hi, Dmichie,
I agree with your comments. I want your comments on WA market. I can not belive it – why Busselton, Bunbury just going up when their house prices are unjutified high?
Same interests, same lower unemploement, same economic development … Compared with 2million people state, I do not think WA’s property is cheaper… I think the mad thing is because of investors (I – one of them) madness – try to replicate the process which happened 4-5 years ago? Why all others are going down, but Perth 9% up? Small increase I can understand.
What is your thought?
Simple answer: Resources boom.
There’s a lot of money sloshing around WA at the moment, it has to go somewhere, and Aussies being Aussies will put it into houses before anything else.
So you think, WA will have 4-5 year growth?
So you think, WA will have 4-5 year growth?No idea … depends when the resources boom ends. Bear in mind that prices (and demand) for resources are at record highs and no-one expects these prices to last forever.
Dimichie, I agree with you. That was why I found everything a bit odd. High land price, high labor costs… when things settle, it obviously bring down the price…
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