Forum Replies Created
Hi Bomberboy,
If you mean bank rates, its already started and will accelerate much quicker in a post Trump world. My semi educated guess is 2-3% increase by end of 2018.
I can only hope you are wrong there – if not, then I foresee a LOT of pain for MANY !!
See, going by current Bank Rates (let’s say 4% right now) then even just a 2% increase would lift your mortgage repayments by 50% !! Who can handle that? Will tenants foot a further 50% impost on their rents?
A 3% rise over that time doesn’t bear thinking about (that is a 75% lift in real terms!!).
With a slow economy, we cannot afford much more than a 1% rise (really 25%) over that time. But yes, I do agree these rates are ABNORMALLY low, and that they will rise again…. but hopefully SLOWLY !!
I just hope the powers-that-be understand just how much of an impost a “0.25%” lift really is when coming from such a low base.
BennyFrom ABC news online today http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-15/investors-to-be-hardest-hit-as-banks-reprice-mortgages/8356294
“You know what” is about to get real people…forget what you think about Australia and migration, supply and demand, what is being built on the corner etc. Bank financing is based on global factors not Bob and Bettys term deposit and local issues….. always has been, always will.
Bank rates are heading north and can accelerate as quickly as they came down.
Not a bubble burster, just a realist…it wasn’t that long ago that we all thought W.A iron ore would last forever at a high price….point is we all thought the abnormal was the new normalG’day
Firstly the following is an opinion, but if you spend 3 hours on the DNC website you are somebody that researches so you most likely have covered what I’ve got to add.
Did you obtain their number via ethical/legal means?
Do you have knowledge of future planning, council decisions, commercial ventures that have been obtained via privileged/unethical/non legal means? ie; not yet in the public domain
Reason being is I worked in several Govt departments with access to personal details and future planning etc, which if I used it for personal gain would come back to bite me. Think of the NSW minister that bought farmland knowing a coal mine was going in.
If you are acting ethically I couldn’t see what role the DNC plays in it, hence why you can’t see anywhere on their site addressing this issue.
Would you feel the same if they had a Monaro for example in their drive that you wondered if they wanted to sell?BTW: My sister missed out on a house at auction, so doorknocked each house in that street she wanted to live in eventually finding people who were willing to sell
Hey Parky
you already know which way I feel the market and rates are going, but this may interest you if you haven’t seen it already……make of it what you will.
Interesting that the prediction for Sydney and Melbournew is so wildly different between NAB and SQM. Is SQM statistically analytical only whilst NAB may be a combo of statistics, risk factors, global influence, number of applications?
In other words hard data versus vibe/risk levels???
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-06/what-will-property-prices-do-in-2017/8165172
I agree Benny ol mate, pain is ahead…how can it go any other way?
Most people think 4% home loan rate is normal and will stay that way, yet not that long ago there were warnings to people borrowing at 6-7% saying factor in at least another 1-2% minimum as a buffer.
Refer http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/ and look at the graph and monthly breakdown for a history lesson. Rates dipped after the GFC (7.25% to 3% in 12mths), tried to come back slowly but there was too much caution so the RBA dropped again and again to try and stimulate the economy. It hasn’t happened and they canna give it any more Captain. …….so what now.
I believe inflation will step up, unemployment will increase and the usual dance partner to this equation is rate rises.
Unlike other factors, a rate rise is a rate rise, it doesn’t matter whether you’re in the Sydney market, the Perth market or even Coastal Qld where I live.
What do you think rates will do in the next two years?
BB (Bomber as in Essendon FC)
Now onto working out the timing of the sale which I think could be towards the end of 2018 when rates start to rise.
Two years away??? You’re kidding aren’t you? If you mean bank rates, its already started and will accelerate much quicker in a post Trump world. My semi educated guess is 2-3% increase by end of 2018. Remember they have been called “record lows” for a reason…it ain’t normal folks and banks are used to making BIG profits….if their lending pool shrinks (and it is) you suck more out of what you’ve already got on the hook
If you mean official rates then the increase will be slightly less and slower, but recent history shows they won’t be too far behind the banks. They’ve largely stayed low for political reasons. Now that the big 4 are doing the bulldozing the RBA can chug in behind.
“No one ever lost taking a profit”
Another thing to double check is council rates, on commercial property they can be 3 times those of residential for the same land/area.
This varies from region to region but power and water may be charged at different (higher) rates as well.
Being commercial, GST may apply which you as “Joe home buyer” cannot claim back………….really look into ALL that applies
This is from ABC (Oz) online news today
I realise and accept there are probably just as many opposing views out there. I’m no expert, just someone who takes a real interest in this stuff and as a homeowner and investor I have skin in the game.
As an aside I have three adult children all renting apartments, two in Briz and one in Melbourne. Though they each earn between $60-85k if interest rates go up, likely leading to rent increases its game over and move back home/relatives. I don’t think its unique from what I can see…..$495 p/wk Melb (Brunswick) 2 bedder, $365 (Yeronga) and $300 (Kelvin Grove) p/wk Briz 1 bedders. These guys have good jobs,low debt, but are over the “sharehouse circus” they did for years.
Point being, the ability to absorb rate rises by the general populous I believe is minimal
Ask yourself these questions:
How healthy was the US economy before the election?
What monetary policy, tactics were available that were yet to be implemented?
How healthy is the Australian econmy?
What monetary policy, tactics were available that were yet to be implemented?
Where is Australian property on the property clock?
Now.
What $$ does Trump have to work with? Personally I believe Sweet FA, they are already so heavily indebted and then some, after Quantitative Easing (money printing). In short, his historical business style is pump money in and walk away if failing…as a Government this leads to inflation…interest rates go up….world money is dearer to get……thus our rates go up which we are already close to doing. Rapid inflation and interest rates climbing that ends well doesn’t it? Look to current bond rate movement to see what is already in situMy 2 cents worth is that it didn’t matter who got in this is where we (world) are going….he’s just going to speed it up.
This is the best case scenario…….you don’t want to think about international diplomacy
Disclaimer: This won’t happen on Day 1
Again, not knowing many details such as size wind direction, building materials of the potential house etc, but chlorine and its gases are highly corrosive……wrecking aluminium window frames, colorbond roofing, wiring not to mention simple things like TV connections and internals.
Ask a poolshop owner how long they get out of a computer
The fact you are asking the question here answers your own question.
If you have an inkling of doubt because of it, so will the next potential buyer etc.
Without knowing the facts etc, unless it was part of a commercial expansion either now or hoped for in the future I personally wouldn’t go near it. Having said that if you proceed, get an engineer/ quantity survey opinion about land stability, drainage etc…….oh and make sure it is a “water tight” contract
