Forum Replies Created
- gmh454 wrote:Marc, I have had the privilege as a public accountant to get to know in enormous depth the lives and business practices of maybe over 1,000 clients, in 35 plus years.
Over the years we had seen a variety of breaches of ethics, morals and laws. Mind you it is mainly through joining the dots, and making assumptions.
My first eye opener was a public company director who was no 4 in T@T What struck me was his sucess as a share trader. Starting with a very small inestment he built up a small nest egg of $200k (early 80s) , he was exceptional, he always bought his shares weeks or even days before before a bonus or rights issue. I am sure the directors on the boards of companies he shared also bought T@T just before such evernts as well. All great investors.
Now the kicker with the pub director was that in the early 80s he bought two Gold Coast properties off the plan for $160k each. By time of settlement he could not unload them for $80k. Basically blew all that he made by investing in something he did not know, or maybe he actually beleived he was a great investor.
Marc you may probably see me taking some form of joy from the downfall of these hardworking individuals, ..holding them out to ridicule, but me, I see it as Karma, and it renews may belief that there may be a god……I think his name though may be Loki…
Marc, I have had the privilege as a public accountant to get to know in enormous depth the lives and business practices of maybe over 1,000 clients, in 35 plus years.
In my practice alone I would say there is not one sucessful client who has not broken the law. That breach may be as small as lying about there financial affairs when applying for a licence, to as high as buying a surgeon a 220k Merc, because he pedals a product that my client sells. I cannot say the surgeon performed needless operations, I don't have that info, but will say he sold 90% of all the product we sold nationally, and after his death, the national sales of the product slumped. Apparently not all specialists had his moral values. Though one other specialist did comment after a operation " very good procedure doctor….but where was the cancer "
My first eye opener was a public company director who was no 4 in T@T What struck me was his sucess as a share trader. Starting with a very small inestment he built up a small nest egg of $200k (early 80s) , he was exceptional, he always bought his shares weeks or even days before before a bonus or rights issue. I am sure the directors on the boards of companies he shared also bought T@T just before such evernts as well. All great investors.
Now the kicker with the pub director was that in the early 80s he bought two Gold Coast properties off the plan for $160k each. By time of settlement he could not unload them for $80k. Basically blew all that he made by investing in something he did not know, or maybe he actually beleived he was a great investor.
Now withn the doctor, the thing that makes me wonder about a god, (unmester please take note) is that this doctor died from the very "illness" that he was a specialist in. Dead 6 mths after diagnosis. Too busy making bucks to read his own symptoms till it was too late, and the night before he died he tallied up the last sales and sent off an "invoice" closing out his secret commisions at around 10pm, and was dead before morning.
and I wish I was making up that last one but it is true, and as the Jute importer said to the piano teacher (Peter Cooke and Dudley Moore) "no-one has talked to me like that in 20 years, you have integrity…..and that is something I am willing to pay for.."
put a big enough bag of money on the table and even I will even put down the names, 4 corners could work off my stuff for years..Marc you may probably see me taking some form of joy from the downfall of these hardworking individuals, ..holding them out to ridicule, but me, I see it as Karma, and it renews may belief that there may be a god……I think his name though may be Loki…
1Winner wrote:Quote:As for my previous post, the point I make is very simple. The virulence/ anger/ bias/ resentment/ general bad vibes or ridicule expressed by some be it directly, indirectly or by elevation against "rich people" (regardless of the definition in the person's mind) is, in my view, a handicap to success if success as objective has in any of its parameters, earning good amounts of money.
Marc again I cannot see that in my posts, so I am a little irritated by the inference.
I see humour, okay black and maybe bad, but hey at least I try…..
daniellee wrote:gmh454 wrote:SHales wrote:When a place at palm beach, a little weekender, bought for 5.5M with 100% finance no sales at a mortgagee auction, for 2.5m, the top end has tanked.
Is that the 40% drop that Assoc Prof Steve Keen was predicting about?
Regards
Danielwell if it had sold it would have been 54.5%, but as it did not, who knows……it couldn't get any worse ?????? could it ???
1Winner wrote:I find some of the comments amusing.
There is an innuendo that "rich" people are somehow stupid for selling presumably at a loss having bought at premium price.. When that may be so in some cases, this is not exclusive of the (stupid) rich. Thousands upon thousands of (smart?) poor are selling below the cost at a loss. …..And many that sell, rich or poor today are doing so at a profit of sort, to upgrade in a buyers market.
For the last 3 years I come across thread after thread in this forum that reflect some form of attitude against those who presumably more stupid than us, have made their fortune allgedly by chance, inheritance or dishonesty (see comment about palm beach holiday house and Mosman and bonuses) And I say this comments are amusing because whoever is into investing is in it to make money, the more the merrier. If you hate those who have made the money and are straining the gnat of their actions to highlight their shortcomings, you will never make it rich ever, and mediocrity is your glass ceiling.My opinion of course.
Marc…..are you reading just a little too much into the posts, ….I don't waste my time here for any other reason than to bring joy to this colorless world….
Rich is defined by anyone who has more money than you…ask Rupert Mucdoch if his is rich, and he will tell you he is well off, "…Bill gates though is rich"""
my favourite quote is from Johnny Carson at the end of his career, when asked about his $1m per show and he replied "the only thing money gives you is the abilty to not worry about having money "
gmh454 wrote:jparry1 wrote:Predicting the downturn was a no brainer. Lets see who is game to predict (guess) accurately what is going to happen in the next 12-24 months.I'm surely not going to ………
Cheers,
JP.well actually it is no more difficult than 2005, a no brainer actually.
lets see, a kabillion (trilion is too small and …well..a zillion was what we used in infants, so can't go backwards can we) of liquidity has been lost out of the world markets.
Right now every bank, government major company is issuing new shares and raising funds, (been going on for a while – this is a game in which no one wants to be last cab in the rank) only problem is there will not be enough to go round. Recently in Germany they had two large raisings that could not be fully met. Now Germany is thought to be best off among the major Euro players, so it is concerning when they find the cupboard bare.
If there is not enough money to go round, then what will the boys do.
They have two choices.
1. raise rates to try to compete aggresively for the few Kabilion circulating, raising rates will slow the recovery so we are in for a long hard grind (plenty of time to take on new values and find other ways to enjoy life)
2. print more money – now this usually leads to inflation and other trading partners need to make an adjustment otherwise one country could print enough money to buy up all the assets with it 's trade partners, so the trade partners will sell the currency down
– if they sell the currency down, you can print more money (see Zimbabwee) or you can raise your rates to counter the sell down.one of the buffers to this in the past decade was the huge crossinvestment round the world. As the drop in our currency has shown a huge amount of these funds has been repatriated, in the first few months of the crunch.
So what am I predicting – a long slow recovery, with increased rates significantly impacting on the hoped for quick recovery.
Now I could be wrong, as I don't know all the pieces to the puzzle, including when will China actually pursue economic reform so that the people paid $1 an hour can actually buy the things it produces and sells to the west. If that happened we might get out of this faster, but hey that may mean the new Madarins have to drive Mercs instead of Bentleys so I am betting that will not happen.
Had a meeting with the one client whose opinion I value, on the economy, and ran my above scenario by him. After a short pause he said there is a counterpoint, " what if every asset class is going down, wouldn't 2% interest be a great deal ???"
Had not thought of that, ……what a relief, was worried for a while.
Also echoed today by one of the world bank / IMF bodies about the UK borrowing "too much", placing deflationary pressure on the economy.
SHales wrote:I keep hearing this "rich people are selling…" claim. Can you tell me what substantiates it as fact?
So my question is, how do you know rich people are selling now, what are they selling and what is there to suggest that this is proactive strategy rather than reactive damage control that any of us are capable of?
SWhen a place at palm beach, a little weekender, bought for 5.5M with 100% finance no sales at a mortgagee auction, for 2.5m, the top end has tanked.
harb wrote:Just wondering, has the $5.5M always been the selling price in Palm Beach or did they ever sell for $500K or less sometime in the past ?
Guess they did sell for 500k sometime ago.
the guy who told the storey of the banker who is evaporating before our eyes made the front page of the Fin Review once when Kerry Packer (rest his soul) made the quote of "he'll never work in this town again", Kerry thought they should tear up a deal he signed and redraft it more equitably, and that was around 10 years ago, and he never has. However he is probably one of the few people in Sydney with an Olympic size equestrian area complete with full sand dressage, within 40mins of the city.
why I mentioned him is that he makes our SMH title deeds pages often, the first time when he sold, his Mosman home in mid 90s for 950K, he had paid only low 400s for it 5 year before. Great deal, especially if you did not know that he spent 600k on it after the sale, only deal he has lost in.
he had one in Palm Beach as well, paid low 2M for it probably 2003, sold it for 6.7M in late 2007 (the peak), sounds good, and it was, the indoor swimming pool with sliding glass wall opening to the 180 deg view of the Ocean, was something the Olsen twins enjoyed, but those renos were over 2M, which makes the profit very good, but not exceptional like yours..
people never include the "improvement costs" when quoting profits, so often very misleading
glad to see your end holding up, but maybe you should keep the tissues handy just in case..
The top end is "coughing up a lung", in Sydney Mosman is a bloodbath, can give you many examples but one will do.
" Palm Beach, little weekender, don't really stay there much, maybe 4 days a month, yeah work is a bitch, picked it up for $5.5M, …yeah should do nicely in the future, Oh borrowed the lot, yep the house at Mosman is worth $10M now, ……interest ? Bonus should cover that……can't go wrong really………….."
well that was around 2007, bank mortgage auction passed it in at $2.5M, ….., what a bargain…….everyone there thought so, but there are so many for sale in Palm Beach, and there is no rush, who knows maybe next month they can get a real bargain…
(how is Perth's top end Harb holding up ???? Cough, cough….)
and are we there yet, nope, still a little ways to go…
Hmmmm…. $12k, buy some good Nikes and run in the opposite direction as fast as you can..
You need really good legal advice immediatley, you may be right but have gone about it the wrong way, seek out some good advice ASAP.
keiko wrote:nd pay them $10k or something to move out. or pay 1 year in a retirement home
and after that one year, they will do what exactly……
What happened to the great property shortage….
damm I might not have had to sell that kidney afterall…
Hmmmmm……….first thought was firebombing, but damm that would effect the property……..but then again how much insurance do you think you could get on it, it could be a real win win……
gmh454 wrote:Regarding our deep pocket friends, yep many are having to sell assets to fix their balance sheets, also nothing will bring you marriage woes more than finding out that an unpaid AMEX bounces.
Are these people smart, financially sophisticated. Well two years ago many thought they were, however in hindsight, those who could'nt see this coming often made some real DUMB mistakes. About 18 mths ago one of my clients (not overstretched) said a colleage in one of the top banks had lost $6m when the market tanked and his share loan facility basically wiped out his $6m home. Another ex JP Morgan boy said (he was let go – but made a one off deal of $300k that will get him through the year -not bad for few phone calls), that he was having lots of coffee meetings with young Macquarie bank staff who were using all their funds to meet the margin calls on their precious Mac bank shares.
He also said months ago that there is lots of stuff for sale in Mosman but very little listed, – they don't want the rabble to think it is a fire sale…
this time, with an attempt to fix my spellling and gramma….
jparry1 wrote:Predicting the downturn was a no brainer. Lets see who is game to predict (guess) accurately what is going to happen in the next 12-24 months.I'm surely not going to ………
Cheers,
JP.well actually it is no more difficult than 2005, a no brainer actually.
lets see, a kabillion (trilion is too small and …well..a zillion was what we used in infants, so can't go backwards can we) of liquidity has been lost out of the world markets.
Right now every bank, government major company is issuing new shares and raising funds, (been going on for a while – this is a game in which no one wants to be last cab in the rank) only problem is there will not be enough to go round. Recently in Germany they had two large raisings that could not be fully met. Now Germany is thought to be best off among the major Euro players, so it is concerning when they find the cupboard bare.
If there is not enough money to go round, then what will the boys do.
They have two choices.
1. raise rates to try to compete aggresively for the few Kabilion circulating, raising rates will slow the recovery so we are in for a long hard grind (plenty of time to take on new values and find other ways to enjoy life)
2. print more money – now this usually leads to inflation and other trading partners need to make an adjustment otherwise one country could print enough money to buy up all the assets with it 's trade partners, so the trade partners will sell the currency down
– if they sell the currency down, you can print more money (see Zimbabwee) or you can raise your rates to counter the sell down.one of the buffers to this in the past decade was the huge crossinvestment round the world. As the drop in our currency has shown a huge amount of these funds has been repatriated, in the first few months of the crunch.
So what am I predicting – a long slow recovery, with increased rates significantly impacting on the hoped for quick recovery.
Now I could be wrong, as I don't know all the pieces to the puzzle, including when will China actually pursue economic reform so that the people paid $1 an hour can actually buy the things it produces and sells to the west. If that happened we might get out of this faster, but hey that may mean the new Madarins have to drive Mercs instead of Bentleys so I am betting that will not happen.
Regarding our deep pocket friends, yep many are have to sell assets to fix their balance sheets, also nothing will bring you marriage woes more than finding out that a unpaid AMEX bounces.
Are these people smart, finacially sophisticated. Well two years ago many thought they were, however in hindight, those who could'nt see this coming often made some real DUMB mistakes. About 18 mths ago one of my clients (not overstretched) said a colleage in one of the top banks had lost $6m when the market tanked and his share loan facility basically wiped out his $6m home. Another ex JP Morgan boy said (he was let go – but made a one offdeal of $300k that will get him through the year -not bad for few phone calls), that he was having lots of coffee meetings with young Macquaries bank staff who were using all their funds to meet the margin calls on their precious Mac bank shares.
He also said months ago that there is lots of stuff for sale n Mosman but very little listed, – they don't want the rabble to think it is a fire sale…
jparry1 wrote:Sure a lot of people predicted it, but hey it didn't take rocket science. Nobody really cares who did or did not predict it. What I was trying to say is if your income is secure, what is stopping you from investing now compared to any other time?return is based on risk.
If I can get "X" with no risk and no effort, and no stress, what level of return would I except for increased risk and effort.
if you are happy with your expected return for the risk go for it, why I am not hurrying, is because I perceive the market to be falling.
Why pay $1,000,000 for a house I hope to buy for say $800,000 later, at a time much closer to the upturn in the curve,
There is a percetion that you must be out there actively investing, moving from shares to property to precious metals, collectibles
but some beleive there is a time to watch the carnage and have a break before the next cycle.oh yeah and I do care who called it, …..cause for four years we put up with so much crap about "this time it is different", don't want a pound of fleash but don't take away my fun..
my favourite was the member who asked how to invest in property, build a portfolio, while on centrelink…and she got advice from someone who had done it.. great days indeed..
Some very good points there about the distance now between wealth and control.
I like to call our problem the triumvirate of terror"/turmoil or anything better that rhymes with "T"
CEO
Fund Manager Auditor
It goes like this.
If the Fund Manager backs the CEO, then the CEO uses whatever accounting methods that will give the highest profit, thereby increasing the fund value and guaranteeing the fund managers bonus. All they have to do is get the auditor to see it their way, by paying him 2 or 3 times what the job is worth.
All three have to play along and all three are very highly rewarded although the fund manager with bonus's make most CEO payouts look lame.
We all own these companies thru our funds but we don't know which shares our funds own, our how they vote, or how much we pay our clowns to loose money.
Gotta change.
Wealth I say to clients what we are experiencing is not the end of the world, it is just Darwin's theory applied to the corporate world, survival of the fittest..
and I agree. let the big boys die, cull the executive crap that got them there and reboot.
