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March 4, 2012 - 4:30 am

xdrew wrote:

And goes on about a doomsday without actually riding to evidence on it. Even if you examine his graph it extrapolates a short term movement onto a long term US schedule.

Regarding doomsday. During the Great Depression the US saw unemployment grow to 25%. Shadow Stats more accurately defines US unemployment at 23% (and climbing) and property prices have slumped 2% more than the during the depression. That’s not the real worry. The real worry is that it’s still sliding with no end in sight. A doomsday scenario if ever I saw one. But hey America’s not even in recession!!

The Euro zone has been struggling to contain the affects post the 2007/8 GFC. After 3 years of supposed progress the EU now has more debt, less growth, higher unemployment and contracting economies. Still no solution in sight and I see Spain now heading for exponential growth in unemployment (currently 24%+) not to mention Portugal, Greece and a host of other small countries in the Euro region.

I was chatting the other day to a guy up here about demountables coming in from China. His boss had recently been there to organise something to do with their construction. He recounted how at the factory (there were 8 by this company) there were queues of over a 1000 people waiting at the gate for a job. If you failed to turn up for work for any reason the first guy in the queue got yours. China’s economy is slowing at rate no one predicted (or didn’t want to) except for Chanos who along with a few others has a big short on China. Chanos I take for a pretty savy kinda guy especially when he’s invested heavily putting boots and ears on the ground there to understand what’s really going on. I’ll back Chanos and the others shorting China any day over the rubbish being published about how China will save the world. It’s in a far bigger hole than many can imagine.

So yeah, I kinda have a doomsday outlook on things but I’m not looking through rose coloured glasses and kidding myself all is well in the world simply to stay positive at all costs.

Xdrew wrote:

Even if you examine his graph it extrapolates a short term movement onto a long term US schedule. Which is like saying by training a stallion you are guaranteed a Phar Lap. Its a non sequiteur.

I’ll assume we’re talking about this one

relevant comment was I think;

“It will be interesting to see how the AU markets tracks over this year.”

How that translates into a non sequiteur. beats me. Maybe I’m as dumb as a chook.

xdrew wrote:

he knows too much.

You’ve been talking to my wife

The Freckle

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March 4, 2012 - 3:30 am

xdrew wrote:

I follow up with asking.

Where did you come across this exciting bit of informational recall?

You have my apology. It seems I have you mixed up with Andrew_A. A lazy response on my part before checking my facts.

I generally find your comment intelligent, articulate and informative. In fact given your professional background I consider you one of the more informed and skilled PI’s here.

Where we differ is how we see the future and interpret current events. The vast majority of PI enthusiasts here don’t even come close to your level of experience or skill. My focus is to ensure that the less able at least get one contrarian view of substance to balance out the heavily pro nature of these forums. At the very least I hope my posts stimulate others to think and learn more broadly other than to patch a simple investment portfolio together.

The Freckle
PS: I find your challenges stimulating intellectually. Keep it up

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March 4, 2012 - 2:08 am

Xdrew wrote:

Even if you examine his graph it extrapolates a short term movement onto a long term US schedule. Which is like saying by training a stallion you are guaranteed a Phar Lap. Its a non sequiteur.

ROFL

Interesting conclusion. Lets make a comparison as you are our resident graphing expert. I seem to recall you making a prediction that the QLD market for 2012 should see an improvement even though over the previous 2 yrs there was a definite down trend but offered no explanation for this other than there had been a slight up tick and you felt a lot of people were sitting on the fence.

I rest my case.

Xdrew I don’t have a problem with you nor do I think you’re a snob. I just think your arguments are rather weak at times.

The Freckle

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March 4, 2012 - 1:54 am

Alex wrote:

Well since I am investor full time, dabble in wall street and real estate , as well as a couple other businesses not related to real estate. I would say I am the perfect person to ask advice for.

If you have no pecuniary stake and the advice is objective I agree, however, that’s not the case is it?

Alex wrote:

My days start at 430 am as most on here met me know and end most nights by 10pm. Not a easy day any where in there. Spruiking love it , we call it educating but no offense I should not be teaching some one as smart as you.

Wasn’t suggesting you think its easy for yourself. The point being made was that you make it look easy for the punters coming into the market.

Alex wrote:

No some great people in society well American society were very simple people

Are we speaking the same language.? The reference I made is not about ‘people’, being simple but the ‘task’

Alex wrote:

If you would take the time and open your eyes before you mouth you would see I preach some of what you mention already.

That statement wasn’t about you but about the punters heading your way, who from a variety of sources, (including yours) draw inaccurate conclusions. I don’t have a problem with what you say but the way you say it. Your business dress code implies a somewhat easy going relaxed approach which I suspect is attractive to those wishing to emulate you.

Alex wrote:

Been buying an selling real estate from $10k to $5m for quite some time in this day an age I think we call them experts in the field. If I was to have brain surgery would I go to the new doctor or the one who has been doing this for years and years and is successful. Him go see if you can find that in your stats. Yes I go nice restaurants with my wife because I hear and see they have good food.So if some one mentions the good food are they spruiking me , or saying some thing is good and worked for them.

Recommendations come from one of two sources, objective, someone who has no connection to the product or service but who’s experience is the basis for that recommendation and subjective, one who has a personal interest/stake in promoting their product /service. As far as experience goes that is no measure of capability or surety of the outcome.

Alex wrote:

You seem to be clashing with quite a few people on here. Hmmmmmm

Sometimes. I’m the other side of the coin, the contrarian view point. My post are not always what they want to hear. I make some here work for their money and that irks some of them but the PM’s and emails asking for more info or a different perspective suggest many lurkers here find my posts interesting and informative.

My intent is not to stir trouble but to challenge conventional thinking, add colour to the debate/discussion and increase the readers depth of knowledge. Many here are blissfully ignorant and need a guiding hand of different persuasions to get their heads around investing.

The Freckle

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March 3, 2012 - 11:29 pm

Alex, forgive me for raining on your parade but lets put you and your business in perspective.

You and your partner are long time RE agents with skin in the game so to speak. You run a fairly significant sized business, 2 principles, 10 staff (including property management) and various subcontractors. As a not so small agency you’re doing 1 – 6 properties per week. A pretty average turnover for a business of your size.

Your business doesn’t translate into anything meaningful for the punters on this forum. Comparing RE agencies to investors is chalk and cheese.

The risks I see for punters here investing in the US is self interested spruikers like yourself pumping a market as if its a dead cert to make an easy buck. The way you describe your easy going relaxed approach suggests a certain level of easiness for want of a better word. The language I see here from interested parties suggest a certain level of naivety. They’re dead keen to get over there make their fortunes but most just haven’t thought it through nor fully understand the risks.

Your the guy selling shovels during the gold rush.

Yeah mate there’s gold everywhere just dig. By the way shovels are $1000.

The Freckle

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March 3, 2012 - 3:16 pm

worldinvestor wrote:

HThrow in the correct structure and should be on the right track to sell when the market turns, sell the lot. 
If you are fortunate buy while the Au $ is at all time high $1.07-1.10

The US market has been sliding for 5 yrs now and no end in sight. Prices have dropped further than the 30’s depression. It took 19yrs for the housing market to return to pre depression prices. The recover, when ever it starts, is predicted to take longer.

The exchange rate could go either way. A resource sector collapse could see a substantial pull back in the AU dollar. That would be almost catastrophic for AU at the moment. It would send almost all consumables through the roof especially fuel. We would probably enter a period of stagflation – high inflation and plunging asset values.

On the other hand all the major central banks; FED, BoE, BoJ PBOC ECB have the printing presses running red hot in a race to debase their currencies in order to increase their competitiveness and inflate their debt away. The current consensus is that the US dollar will eventually loose its reserve status and be virtually worthless. It’s lost 95% of its value since 1971.

The Freckle

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March 3, 2012 - 3:03 pm

worldinvestor wrote:

Who really knows what will happen it is crystal ball stuff,

If I had a business that borrowed more than it earnt and its debt load grew faster than income then its fairly predictable that if I continue along this path I will eventually go bust. No crystal ball required.

Good luck with your strategy.

The Freckle

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March 3, 2012 - 2:49 pm

worldinvestor wrote:

I will do what I always do and will chase the cycles, the next to move will be Sydney,  we are not too far off and I will be loading up.

Freckle,  I am only interested in what is happening on the ground, not interested in analysing this stuff it has been done to death. 

WI

Those who are selling will be relieved to hear you’re in the market to ‘load up’.

The Freckle

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March 3, 2012 - 2:44 pm

lawsjs wrote:

Lack of supply controls prices, so IMHO a crash is highly unlikely. Slow growth – sure, but crash – near impossible.

Lack of supply???

According to RP Data:

The number of newly advertised properties for sale continued to increase last week however, we are seeing fewer new listings enter the market compared with the same period last year (3.3% lower nationally and 9.1% lower across the capital cities). RP Data is currently tracking 300,994 properties for sale across the country and 143,254 properties across the capital cities. Throughout Australia, total listings are currently 27.7% higher than they were at the same time last year and 25.5% higher across the capital cities. With fewer new listings being added to the market and some stock being absorbed, the total number of homes now advertised for sale is -7.5% below the record highs of last year nationally and -11.7% below their peaks across the capital cities.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/02/rp-data-homes-for-sale-leith-van-onselen/

This graph shows how unsold property stocks are rising. They’re approaching 2008 levels.

lawsjs wrote:

Slow growth – sure, but crash – near impossible

The graph below illustrates how housing markets have tracked once over their peaks. Interesting to note we are currently tracking the US. The UK and NZ markets had initially steeper declines and levelled out faster. It will be interesting to see how the AU markets tracks over this year.

The Freckle

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March 3, 2012 - 8:35 am

jbelmore wrote:

Well the Reserve Bank is pretty optimistic – more than your comments. Its not just media hype. But there’s always the xfactor of what we can’t see ahead.

The RBA is not optimistic. Their language talks of room for more easing should the Euro area problems worsen. In real speak that means when europe turns to custod we have the capacity to reduce interest rates. If it gets really bad (liquidity) we’ll print money too!!

jbelmore wrote:

The current stabilization of nominal house prices

Prices are still on a confirmed downward trend. We are tracking exactly as the US did when its property market collapsed. We only need a trigger to accelerate us into a full blown collapse.

jbelmore wrote:

as wage inflation carries on is already making housing more affordable

I have no idea how you come to this conclusion. Real inflation is outpacing wage growth.

jbelmore wrote:

so there’s still a chance that the Australian housing market can adjust without a US style crash.

Anything’s possible in the Land of Oz but Alice has returned to the real world.

jbelmore wrote:

Also Aussie households stopped borrowing like we did before the GFC. I’ve sold my Australian bank shares as I think their profits will slow.

Globally populations in general are deleveraging as they try to position themselves for a recession. It’s a natural transition after exhausting our capacity to leverage up on easy credit

jbelmore wrote:

We are very dependent on china now.

We’ve been dependent on China for over a decade, however, they’ve managed to turn their own economy into a bag of worms. China can not prevent what’s coming. Their economy is so dysfunctional they may end up copping the worst of the down turn.

jbelmore wrote:

It’s not pc to say it but the Chinese have a higher average iq so don’t under estimate china.. Luckily we are getting them as skilled migrants.

Intelligence is only useful when it’s positioned in places that can influence or action the changes needed to correct things. China is a command economy run by a corrupt central government. Politicians are not renowned for their economic intellectual abilities. Quite the contrary.

Throughout the ten year period, the largest group of skilled settlers was born in the UK. They represented just over one-in-four (27%) skilled settlers arriving in 2007-08, up from 21% ten years earlier. The next two largest skilled groups arriving in 2007-08 were born in India and China, and they accounted for 16% and 11% of skilled arrivals respectively. Those born in South Africa represented the fourth largest group in 2007-08, accounting for 6% of skilled arrivals, but down from 14% (and second place) in 1997-98. The absolute numbers of South African born settlers has remained relatively constant throughout this period, however, the proportional decrease reflects the growth in arrivals of UK, Indian and Chinese born skilled settlers.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/3416.0Main+Features32009.

While Chinese skilled labour makes a contribution to economic activity it is impossible to measure its impact. Many skilled migrants find their qualifications do not meet Australian standards when they try to employ these skills. Some of the conditions placed on skilled immigrants are onerous at best and reflect protectionist practices by controlling bodies.

The Freckle

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March 3, 2012 - 1:41 am

kylermrice wrote:

Have you invested in the market?

Only PM’s as a hedge against the coming storm. Down about $7k at the moment. Talk about timing!! But the potential is for a 10 fold gain over the next few years. We’ll see. I have other irons in the fire other than markets.

The Freckle

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March 3, 2012 - 1:36 am

KnoxOff wrote:

heaven help us if  china slows production

It already has. The great hope was that there would be a soft landing and the Chinese economy would stabilise at a growth rate of around 8%. For the world and particularly Aus that meant we had a chance of maintaining our current economies while the world sorted its mess out. Problem is that that was just a fantasy cooked up by the poly’s and bankersville to sooth the markets.

The reality is that China has been on a self destruct course for the past decade. The GFC and now the global sovereign default crises has served to expose the structural weakness and corruption in the Chinese economy. We are now talking of something worse than just a hard landing but a severe crash in the Chinese economy that will take decades to repair.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/world-bank-warns-of-economic-crisis-in.html

There are many successful PI’s here who simply choose to listen to only the positive hype generated by media and industry about our future prospects. What they fail to realise is that these sources will always talk up the economy or downplay the negatives because not to is to admit we are gone for all money.

I have no idea when the crunch will come, how it will unfold or how damaging it will be but all my instincts tell me its soon, it’ll be bad and probably worse than the 30’s depression and it will take decades to recover from. Occasionally I regain some optimism but that’s soon dissolved by a dose of new reality. I hope for the best but I’m planning for the worst. You should too.

The Freckle

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March 2, 2012 - 9:58 am

kylermrice wrote:

nah, it still hasn't hit bottom really, there is  still a big back stock off forclosers

You might find this report interesting then. This report describes the foreclosure supply pipeline.

http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/asset_upload_file866_14435.pdf 11.1 million, or 22.8 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the fourth quarter of 2011. This is up from 10.7 million properties, 22.1 percent, in the third quarter of 2011. An additional 2.5 million borrowers had less than five percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the fourth quarter. Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 27.8 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide in the fourth quarter, up from 27.1 in the previous quarter. Nationally, the total mortgage debt outstanding on properties in negative equity increased from $2.7 trillion in the third quarter to $2.8 trillion in the fourth quarter

<moderator: quoted part of article was too long to paste to the post and I have removed it.  Please refer to link>

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March 1, 2012 - 6:22 am

vet80 wrote:

I know this topic is a little old from last year, but I have found this post really good and its refreshing to see two different sides of the coin like this. Engelo, I empathize with you because I can relate to your position but its good to be grilled and Jack I think knows what he is talking about. I have learnt a few things too.

ROFL… I like young Engelo even though we disagree. Young bull old bull kinda thing. Quite possible he’ll be broke in the coming years. I hope not but unless he’s hedged his rampant buying spree I’m not confident he’ll make it through the turmoil that’s coming.

Jack …I mean The Freckle

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March 1, 2012 - 3:08 am

luke86 wrote:

Hi Freckle, just wondering if you live in Perth? The only thing bonkers is the mining economy there. With billion dollar projects being announced every second week, it would be a brave man to bet that it is going to end soon. My observation is that when BHP plan on spending $40 billion in the next ten years in iron ore expansion projects and go ahead and build a huge new skyscraper in the Perth CBD to house their workers, they dont think the boom is ending any time soon. And then you can add the mountains of Rio Tinto and FMG projects in the pipeline.

I have more faith in the financial forcecasts of the BHP and Rio Tinto executive team than those of the average person off the street, so my opinion is that the good times are here for a while yet.

Cheers,
Luke

I work and live in the industry (Pilbera) and I’m about to set up a new company supplying contract labour to this sector based out of Mandurah.

The whole mining boom thing is predicated on China maintaining a growth rate in excess of 9%. It’s irrelevant what BHP Rio and FMG say to the media. That’s fluff to keep shareholders happy. Poly’s are even worse and I wouldn’t trust a banker any further than I could throw him.

Here’s 2 recent reports about China

BAML (Bank of America Meryll Lynch) is “very worried” by signs of tightening in China
http://www.dailycollateral.com/2012/02/29/baml-is-very-worried-by-signs-of-tightening-in-china/

World Bank Warns of Economic Crisis in China; Only 3% Growth for Decade Says Michael Pettis
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/

International iron ore prices rose in 2000. The price for
Hamersley Iron Ore Pty. Ltd. and Mount Newman Mining Co.
Pty. Ltd. fine ores for fiscal year 2000 (April 1, 2000, to March
31, 2001) in the Japanese market was 27.35 cents per 1% Fe per
long ton unit, up 4.4% compared with that of 1999 (Duisenberg,
2001, p. 46). The price for lump ore was settled at 36.26 cents
per 1% Fe per long ton unit, an increase of 5.8 % compared
with that of 1999. The lump ore to fine ore premium for
Australian ore sold to Japan, increased from 8.2 in 1999 to 9.1
cents per 1% Fe per long ton unit.
Source: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/iron_ore/iomyb00.pdf

In 2000 ore was around $13-17/dmt. By 2010 it reached an all time high of $180/dmt before slumping to $116/dmt and then recovering to around $140/dmt. FMG state that $52/dmt is their break even point. I suspect Rio and BHP have break evens in the low $40’s given their original plants wher purchesed at substantially lower cost, however given the sheer volume of spending this break even point is closing on $50/dmt.

BHP has stated in recent media reports it’s outer harbour expansion project at Port Hedland needs to see prices at $200/dmt to be viable if I recall correctly.

BHP warns of cutbacks and closures despite $9bn profit
BY: MATT CHAMBERS From: The Australian February 09, 2012 12:00AM

BHP Billiton has warned of more closures of struggling assets and lower-than-flagged development spending, as it prepares to “live within its means” after recent falls in commodities prices.

The mining giant yesterday delivered a first-half profit of $US9.94 billion ($9.17bn), down 7 per cent on a year earlier because of higher tax payments and operating costs.
Source: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/profit-loss/bhp-warns-of-cutbacks-and-closures-despite-9bn-profit/story-fn91vch7-1226266151559

There is considerable effort going into misinformation, disinformation and outright lieing. Getting the real facts on China and Global Economic problems requires digging below the surface and finding those with the knowledge and skills who are able to unravel the truth.

If you start to stick all the little pieces of the puzzle together you don’t end up with a positive outlook for the Australia economy. It has the potential to be pretty horrific. Anyone with a sense of logic has to realise that you can’t have the largest national and regional economies sliding into recession simultaneously and have a booming China. It doesn’t stack up. Then when you look at China itself let alone its export markets you see a considerably corrupt and dysfunctional economy that is in reality broke

I have no doubt that resources will pull back considerably. What I don’t know is how quickly it will unfold and where the bottom might be. That’s what has me worried. I worry even more when the poly’s say they have things under control and all is good in the world.

The Freckle

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March 1, 2012 - 2:06 am

Answers to;

1 No
2-4 are now moot, and
5 Yes heaps.

Sam nice to see a young fella with his head screwed on. You come across as a bright young spark full of beans and highly motivated. Can I sugget forgetting property for the next few years and look at perhaps your own business.

I suggest this because;

Much lower and easily managed risk, flexibility to react to changing situations, less complexity, partnering is easier, ROI can be in the 1000s%pa.

For example I’m about to set up a labour contracting company in the resource sector. Set up costs are less than $50K. Projected gross annual TO by Xmas is estimated at $1m. Using a decentralised virtual office setup with contract admin staff overhead is estimated at less than $100kpa. Our biggest challenge will be controlling growth. By year 2 we expect to be managing up to 100 personnel on contracts. That’s worth between $10-15m pa gross.

I personally find running ones own business more interesting and rewarding than speculating on property in a falling market but other peoples mileage may vary.

Whatever you do good luck with it but above all learn patience. It’ll save your bacon time and again. There’s always another deal around the corner. If you ever get the feeling you need to act now because you’ll miss out then they’re the ones to walk away from.

The Freckle

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March 1, 2012 - 12:57 am

dachopper wrote:

don’t buy in Perth as it’s bonkers …. is my advice

Don’t buy anywhere……. is mine!!

If I was a gambling man I’d bet on a donkey to win the Melbourne cup before I’d bet on property as a reasonable investment.

Sure you can pick the odd winner in PI but that’s more likely to be by experienced investors. If I was a newbie I’d be hanging back, learning and watching how things unfold this year. All my instincts tell me it’ll get much worse before it gets better.

Don’t be fooled by mining and the resource sector. It’s at the top of it’s boom cycle and we all know what happens after a boom.

The Freckle

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February 29, 2012 - 11:20 pm

kylermrice wrote:

lol, did your feelings get hurt  Freckle?  I would say that not knowing where to post would be normal newb behavior. 

The Kyler

Actually not that surprised really. I’ve seen several instances of new members simply jumping into threads and asking completely OT questions. Makes you wonder that if they can’t figure out how a simple forum works what hope have they of becoming competent investors. Me thinks not much at all.

The Freckle

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February 29, 2012 - 8:25 am

stevenandvikki wrote:

Can anyone tell me anything good or bad about the company U.S Invest ? (U.S Property Investment company)I have been looking into property investing and am doing lots of Due Diligence. So far I could see myself using this company as they pretty much hold your hand throughout the process’s that as a newbie can be a little overwhelming. I am thinking that it would be better to use this option than to go into somewhat blindfolded. I pay a joining fee that is reabsorbed when I make my first purchase (this eliminates tyre kickers taking up a lot of their time I think)

They have the houses tenanted newly refurbished under good management and supply all the legal and accounting processes at rates which are at or below market value as they say these professionals get a lot of business from them. When you purchase the properties you pay a $3995 fee which includes all the renovations as they say they get the materials /labour at good rates because they buy the materials generically in bulk at a excellent rate. The houses also look like they are in line with other prices in the same area/market.The only other closing costs equate to around 2-3 % It seems good to me as I wouldn’t have to spend so much time figuring it all out for myself (although I would always strive to keep educating myself) It just seems like it would be less risky for me so my real question is why isn’t everyone using them?

Looking forward to your comments

Do you normally hijack threads with OT posts. Strange behaviour for a newbie

The Freckle

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February 29, 2012 - 7:19 am

Nigel Kibel wrote:

As an investor, it is important to manage your risk. Many people in Australia are under insured. We know that around 1 million dollars invested will produce an income of around $50,000 per annum. What that means is that if you have less than that in life cover and acquired assets, you may well leave your loved ones with a major short fall in the event of your early death. Income protection is another important product, for it is well and good to invest, however if you became ill and could not work, how would you pay for your investments? Income protection will in most case cover around 70% of your income until you are 65. These are just a few of the ways a good insurance specialist will assist you with a first class risk management strategy.

Agree with everything you say but dude I thought I was reading one of those funural insurance ads for a sec when I hit that para. I nearly changed channel.

The Freckle