Forum Replies Created
How do you eat an elephant?
……………………….one mouthful at a time.
The Freckle
PISTORE wrote:As long at you have Infrastructure, Government Spending and Population growth, it doesn't matter where it is, you will do well.Couldn’t disagree more. You only have to look at US examples to see the folly of that approach. Property is driven by individuals personal financial situation. That includes job security as number one and then their total wealth. Availability of credit at reasonable terms generally follows.
Markets are drifting down because job security is a real concern on global worries and even if one feels secure then credit availability is becoming more difficult and expensive.
Head winds are increasing for the property market and the future outlook is stormy at best. Europe is slowly going into a death spiral, China is headed for a hard landing and median growth of 4-6% for the foreseeable future and the US is doing it’s best to eviscerate its economy.
How the resource sector can sustain current numbers past the next few years mystifies me in a deleveraging world. Everything I see suggests the resource sector will rebalance back to something like 2005 levels (possibly lower) and stay there for some time. That doesn’t bode well for the Aus 2 speed economy.
The Freckle
engelo10 wrote:http://www.cnbc.com/id/46538421/Hi all,
Just a bit of entertainment for you.
I would definetly put my money were this guys says its good to do so.
Regards,
EngeloThen you know little about Warren Buffet and are simply parroting what the media says.
Buffet doesn’t give a hoot about property other than it’s in his personal interests to talk up the US economy. Much of his commentary is not taken seriously by mainstream economic commentators. Buffet is more of a ‘story’ these days as opposed to some oracle. His investment company (Berkshire) accesses investment deals and has them structured favourably in ways only you and I could dream of.
If you read his commentary and watch his interviews they’re all about promoting and talking up his many investments. His comments are subjective and considerably parochial and shouldn’t be taken seriously by the average small time investor. His investment philosophy and strategies in the early days of his career on the other hand are well worth getting one’s head around.
The Freckle
I often wonder where some of you guys get your info from or if you just selectively read pro property media stuff to keep your spirits up.
“Bank of Queensland Ltd., Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd. and CUA say they’ll seek AOFM support with future mortgage bond sales.‘Challenges are likely to continue in 2012,’ said Brisbane-based Tim Ledingham, treasurer of Bank of Queensland, citing slow lending growth, rising funding costs, increased unemployment and slipping house prices. ‘Until RMBS transactions are achieving wide and diverse distribution I would expect that the market will benefit from the AOFM’s involvement.’”
‘Tough Out There’
Australian home prices slumped 4.8 percent in 2011, the biggest calendar-year drop on record, as concerns about the European debt crisis kept a lid on demand, according to the statistics bureau. The nation has the second least affordable homes behind Hong Kong’s, according to a Demographia study of prices in Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, the U.K., the U.S., Canada and Hong Kong.
Credit to home purchasers rose 5.4 percent in December from a year earlier, the smallest annual increase since 1977, when central bank data begins.
The challenge for banks is “coming to terms with ‘life in the slow lane,” John Laker, Chairman of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, told lawmakers in Canberra this week, according to a copy of his remarks on APRA’s website.
The RBA said in a quarterly statement published Feb. 10 that retail spending remains subdued in Australia and the property market was weak.
“It’s tough out there,” said Tony Taylor, chief financial officer of CUA, the nation’s largest customer-owned lender. The AOFM’s budget for RMBS purchases “should be reviewed quite regularly by those in charge. I have no doubt that an increase will be required at some point.”The Freckle
Paullie wrote:Hi FreckleHouse is brock and tile, obviously insulated roof as we spoke about. We dont have concrete floors its all wood, house isnt perfectly orientated thats for sure… It would definately be the thermal mass of the bricks re-introducing the heat inside, but how do you prevent the bricks from heating up ? You cant cover the house in insulation. I dont have room on the hot side to plant trees for shade, that would be nice.
Haven’t got time for more in depth suggestions at the moment but you need to think outside the box.
>>>>how do you prevent the bricks from heating up
Vertical garden perhaps. Effective and can add value.
Cool air can seep through wooden floors (and under doors) – you have to contain drafts at all costs
Your roof insulation is probably useless if its batts – note; fibreglass batts (worst product on the market) generally loose most of their R value within 3 years. Wool or recycled paper (fire retarded) are pretty good. I’m out of touch with current products so look around.
UV film on windows – can reduce up to 80% of radiant heat note though that it can work against you in the winter when radiant heat is a bonus. I think you can get pop in/removable screens with UV filters for windows .
The Freckle
>>>Yes perhaps a more interesting graph, how would we tell?
I sometimes wonder if you are a sharp a tac as you make out. If you can’t get your head around the consequences of the supplied graph then you can’t be taken seriously. Do you think property operates in isolation to the rest of the economy?
>>>A snapshot in time of the QLD (Brisbane) market is a fair comment and that’s all the data is showing,
That’s all the data shows but you have somehow extrapolated declining trend -2.9% (2010) -6.7% (2011) for a total nose dive of 9.6% in 24 months and then somehow come to the conclusion that 2012 looks better. I’ve seen subjective analysis before but this one absolutely takes the cake.
>>>booming isn’t the word I would use to describe our market over the last four years,
Then why start a thread with a graph that runs at 45 deg if you don’t mean to imply something extra ordinary.
As a realestate agent I wouldn’t trust your analysis one iota. It just doesn’t jive with reality. You come across as just another property spruiker hyping a flagging market.
The Freckle
Paullie wrote:I hate my insulation, I preferred it without. In summer wifey has the aircon on, then mid afternoon turns it off, the house heats up, and the only way to get the heat out of the house it to turn the aircon back on, whereas previously, it stayed cool because it was cooler outside.I think you need to do physics 101 again. Rule of thermo dynamics – heat always travels towards cold. The problem with your house is that the insulation is near useless. It’s not a complete system. It lets heat in which is transferred to materials that store thermal mass; ie concrete, brick etc. which then releases it back as outside temps reduce. That’s why it feels hotter inside. I also think you have no idea or understanding of the thermal profile of your house.
A simple law of physics related to thermal gradients. If it’s cold outside internal heat tries to move to the outside until there is equilibrium in temperature and vice versa.
Proper insulation and a complete system controls this movement of energy. Either keeping it out (hot days) or keeping it in (cold days).
Focus, if you need systems to both heat and cool a house then you’re on a hiding to nothing. The objective of energy efficient design is to use little or no energy to achieve both. It is quite easily done and as you are in the design stage it lets you achieve this at the least cost.
Over the next decade or two energy efficient homes will get the premium prices as energy costs go through the roof.
Get it right now!!! It’s worth big bucks to you in lower energy costs and better resale value.
I could build a house in the Simpson Desert and use no energy to cool it in 45C+ summers or heat it in sub zero winter nights.
The Freckle
Google ‘Earth Ships’ for more info.
You definitely need to take control
I’m not up with it as far as the legal requirements (in Aus) go but you need to put yourself or a suitably qualified person in as the project manager and that person to be in charge of purchasing (materials) and payments to contractors. In effect you become the primary contractor and everyone else a subby. The important thing is to retain control of finances so that monies paid to contractors (for materials) aren’t seized as part of any dispute with other parties.
I can see this getting messy so make sure your contract with your builder allows this. IE if he’s being paid to project manage as well as build then he may be reluctant to relinquish control. He may also spit the dummy and simply make things even more difficult by delaying.
I would make sure you are in a position where you owe money to the builder and maintain that position to hold leverage. He fails to deliver and you bring in someone else and the present builder bears the cost (money owed) for any expenses incurred in the transition.
Tread carefully and document everything as far as practicable.
When you come out of this it will have been a big learning curve.
– Simple rules are always retain control (project manage) and always always always retain financial control.
– Nobody gets paid for anything until it passes muster (meets spec)
– Building specs must be clearly defined to support above
– Include penalty/performance clauses where necessary.
– Include exit/termination clauses for performance failures etc
Good luck
The Freckle
Source http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/02/parko-meet-petard/Perhaps a far more interesting graph. Now tell me things will keep on booming!! I could produce dozens of graphs that give a far more realistic picture of macro and micro economic conditions than a flimsy speculative assessment of a snapshot in time regarding QLD markets.
If ever I saw someone clutching at straws!!
The Freckle
Freckle wrote:Just the bugs I noticed;Residential, Rural etc link bar on front page not working. Initially thought there were no listings until I hit search.
Description text doubles up when opening ad
Pic box defaults to top of screen – never seen this before. Became annoying after a while
Pic box resizes to pic instead of the other way around
Webinars – hate them. Tried to watch 3 in my lifetime and all were duds. Give me a video tutorial any day.
Why a tutorial.
You have control over content
you have control over quality
you have control over the message
…as a consumer
I can select exactly what i want to or need to watch in order to learn and replay it to reinforce learning.
Tutorials are specific…. webinars are generic
Steve your success is not due to iPostcodes. It’s more to do with you personally. iPostcodes is just an ad medium. You still have to close the sale face to face (in most cases) and generally after an inspection by prospective punters.
The Freckle
Windows 7 Pro up to date
Chrome up to date
Just the bugs I noticed;
Residential, Rural etc link bar on front page not working. Initially thought there were no listings until I hit search.
Description text doubles up when opening ad
Pic box defaults to top of screen – never seen this before. Became annoying after a while
Pic box resizes to pic instead of the other way around
Webinars – hate them. Tried to watch 3 in my lifetime and all were duds. Give me a video tutorial any day.
Why a tutorial.
You have control over content
you have control over quality
you have control over the message
…as a consumer
I can select exactly what i want to or need to watch in order to learn and replay it to reinforce learning.
Tutorials are specific…. webinars are generic
Steve your success is not due to iPostcodes. It’s more to do with you personally. iPostcodes is just an ad medium. You still have to close the sale face to face (in most cases) and generally after an inspection by prospective punters.
The Freckle
Hello Steve. I always admire the motivation and enthusiasm of entrepreneurs. Been there done that so I can relate to the way you feel about your baby.
Net marketing is something I know well having pitched our (an IT colleague) first concept to supermarkets (online shopping) back in 97.
One of the major problems we as entrepreneurs face is we are inevitably too close to the project. It’s extraordinarily difficult to stay objective when assessing potential for various aspects.
I’ll respond to your list above;
1. Gumtree is a general platform for all type of listings, being from ‘garage sales’ all the
way to ‘used cars”. iPostcodes specialises in property, its questions, its fields, its listings,
are all geared to best showcase a property listing.Simple answer. Is a single shop more interesting than a mall? You rely on advertising. Foot traffic will be key to your survival. One shop will get a few punters through the door but it will never compete with the likes of GumTree
2. iPostcodes – unlimited description, unlimited photos — Gumtree is limited to 10, the
last time I checkedUnlimited description is not an advantage. Selling is about capturing interest in the first few sentences. Too much and you bore them to death. GumTree has ample capacity to describe/sell anything. Photos are a real pain. It’s not the quantity it’s the quality
3. If your using a real estate agent, there is a checkbox – ‘For sale by Owner’ or ‘using
a real estate agent’ if you click real estate agent – all enquiries automatically go directly
to your agent — Gumtree everything goes to youGumTree has the same option. Check again. Note: I can put my email or a new one and redirect traffic anywhere from it to suit interested parties.
4. Archive folder – If your a property investor, or have multiple properties, you can store
unlimited properties here, so next time all you need to do is edit a few things and activate,
you don’t haveto upload the entire listing again. —- Gumtree no such thingHandy but not a game changer. How many will actually use this feature. It is useful as an edit option if you’re not getting enquiries and want to tweak things. But again it’s not a game changer. I can do similar at GT
5. We have the world’s first desription builder, that builds a very unique description for your property. A copywriter or an agent, can never write about your property as well as the owner can, you would agree with me with that right?, all real estate listings on the internet – look and read the same, Why? because the uniqueness is lost, because we put the owner, wo knows most about the property on the sidelines.
Description builders don’t get me excited. Fancy word for “writing tips”. It’s just a list of canned phrases strung together
Steve I applaud your efforts but you haven’t sold me yet. I’ve had a play on your site and it’s still a little buggy in places.
As a possible renter (currently looking) GT leaves you for dead in terms of search capability. GT’s methodology is one of the easiest I’ve seen.
You’ve got a few owners signed up and frankly I was disappointed. 2/6 didn’t even have photo’s!!!! Only one of the 6 had reasonable pics and 2 were so wordy they lost me. Their text layout was badly developed. One para jamed with a 1000 points isn’t my idea of good layout.
A few tips. You need to understand how to present information in concise readable way.
The text boxes need layout tools. Indenting, bullet points, bold, italic etc etc. That’s what all sites lack is the ability to use creativity tools to maximise the presentation. This could be a point of difference.
The next thing you definitely need are video tutorials;
Photo/Video presentations – Do’s & Don’ts
How to write an ad – Do’s and Don’ts
and so on.
Offer premium services. I’d pay to get my ad to the front of 2000 listings!!!!
Steve you still only get a 2/10 but the site has potential. Keep building it’s tool base and also see how you could bring in and integrate 3rd party tools then I think you’ll start to get ahead in leaps and bounds.
Again Good Luck
The Freckle
PS Watch out for patent trolls. They’re out in plague proportions I believe.
It’s an interesting tool not unlike Gumtree. I’m not sure what your point of differentiation is though. If it’s simply the ability to add one’s own description and photos then it’s just another Gumtree. Problem is that 99% of ppl are lousy marketers. Just look at Gumtree. The descriptions are pretty ordinary and the pics in many are an absolute shocker. What ppl really need is someone to help them present their property in effective marketing terms. In other words a professional marketer to hold their hand. But then again that’s what RE agents are for aren’t they?
So we’re back to square one; an owner who lacks the creative marketing skills to promote their property effectively and agents who market through a standardised industry formula.
If I was going to mark iPostcodes out of ten as a marketing tool then its scores 2/10. It offers nothing new, sophisticated, innovative or unique in terms of marketing capability.
You’ve made the classic mistake many driven entrepreneurs make and that is they assume they can motivate others to be like them.
Good luck with it anyway. Your biggest challenge will be to get sufficient listings to make it relevant.
The Freckle
PS: I would willing pay a professional ($300-500) to write my marketing material for me if I was trying to sell a property. It would be well worth the $$$.
For foreign investors exchange rate performance would also have to be factored in. The long term outlook for the $US is not good. The Fed is determined to inflate their way to minimising debt. Along with many other currencies. It’s likely we’ll see decline and stagnation within the US economy for decades to come. Downside risk is high in the US RE market. You’re really going to have to know your onions to do well there.
The Freckle
You can’t extract meaningful data from such a small time frame. Too many variables that spike the data (up or down). Smooth the mean over 1,2,5,&10yrs time frames to give yourself some perspective for short to long term trends.
The Freckle
Some things go up some things go down.
http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/bhp-sheds-155-nickel-workers
The Pilbara’s in a fairly significant expansion phase at the moment, Rio, FMG and BHP plus several smaller miners. The problem will be when these expansions are completed over the next few years. I’m guessing there’ll be bit of a construction vacuum to fill.
The Freckle
fWord wrote:Instead people focus on JUST posting bad news.It’s just news fWord. These forums have no balance because many think you have to be the super positive ra ra type to get along here. If you don’t ignore the negatives and accentuate the positives then your perceived as being too weak to succeed.
Yin Yang, black white, up down, negative positive, good bad. These things do not work without their opposites.
Forums like these remind me of gamblers. You only hear about the wins. Nobody’s willing to admit their losses. Gamblers always rationalise their habit. PI’s are similar. Property always goes up especially the one’s THEY buy.
The Freckle
fWord wrote:Go on, post up MORE bad news!Takes a fair bit before you guys see the writing on the wall.
What would be more interesting here though would be things like how to manage a portfolio in a down turn, what strategies are most likely to succeed going forward, what will the PI market look like over the next 10 years and so on.
Trouble is most just don’t want to admit the world is round not flat.
The Freckle
Catalyst wrote:Certainly not Sydney. We're moving nicely thanks.Sydney has it’s problems too Cat. The advantage Sydney offers though is that it is a National as well as State capital. Areas of Washington DC were one of the few areas of the US to continue to rise in a crashing market.
The risk for Sydney is the coming white collar recession. Much of Sydney’s workforce is located around the financial services and general services industries which are the one’s that will take a hit over the next year.
Another threat to Sydney is $2B that Chinese investors poor into the PI market there. Hard to say how that one will pan out over the next few years. On the one hand the Chinese may see Australia as a safer haven than China and stay or they may need to cover losses in China and subsequently withdraw. A deterioration in the Chinese economy may also reduce the volume of investment coming out of China and that could substantially affect the demand curve.
Interesting times ahead. Glad I’m a spectator and not a player.
The Freckle
tiger_ra wrote:Freckle – how else can we make money then !How you make money and from where is the challenge we all face. Some are more successful than others and some just do their dough.
Negative gearing however is not the way to go. The objective is to make money not loose it so we can claw a lesser amount back from the ATO.
The Freckle
