Forum Replies Created
- KnoxOff wrote:whats the differance …… most kiwi's use aussie dollars any way
Hill they cant evun speak UnglushPHAR LAP: New Zealand's famous racehorse christened Phillip but was incorrectly written down as 'Phar Lap' by an Australian racing official who was not well versed in Kiwi-ese.
Phar Lapb was NZ's most famous horse he was christened "Phillip" but it was incorrectly written down as "Phar Lap" by an Australian racing official who was not well versed in Kiwi-ese.
PHAR LAP: New Zealand's famous racehorse christened Phillip but was incorrectly written down as 'Phar Lap' by an Australian racing official who was not well versed in Kiwi-ese.We can all cut and paste
An Englishman wanted to become an Irishman, so he visited a doctor to find out how to go about this.
“Well”, said the doctor, “this is a very delicate operation and there’s a lot that can go wrong. I will have to remove half your brain.”
“That’s OK”, said the Englishman. “I have always wanted to be Irish and I am prepared to take the risk.”
The operation went ahead but the Englishman woke to find a look of horror on the face of the doctor.
“I’m terribly sorry !” the doctor said.
“Instead of removing half your brain, I’ve taken the whole brain out!”
The patient replied, “No worries mate !”
.
The main reason we Kiwis don’t really want to merge with Oz is that you’re our cash cow. We’ve been milking you for years.
The Freckle
kylermrice wrote:Wondered where the Freckle had been.Flat out running around West Australia makin’ a buck
12 – 14 hr days don’t leave much energy for fireside chats amigo.The Freckle
Is this the guy
Dean Baring
Acquisitions Manager, QueenslandIf so he works for this mob (6th one down)
http://www.jlf.com.au/acquisitions_team.html
who also run
Custodian WealthBuilders http://www.jlf.com.au/property_investment.html
The Freckle
To understand mining you need to understand China, it’s likely growth rate and where that growth will be focused. I don’t see resources taking up such a large piece of the picture primarily because China has over focused on infrastructure builds, especially housing, that has resulted in much misspent GDP. Mal-investment is currently a major economic problem now and going forward for China. There is a consensus developing that China will grow much slower than many think and that a redirection in GDP growth to a more consumerist model will see a substantial fall away from resource consumption rates of the past few decades.
About 70% of the boom is construction of mines while the remaining 30% is actual mining itself. Given that prices for ore are almost certain to fall along with volumes that puts boom towns at the extreme end of the risk curve. The problem with investing in boom sectors is knowing when to get out due to the fact that while their rise and associated yields are spectacular so are the falls once the boom is over.
from Michael Pettis
http://www.mpettis.com/2012/03/10/the-world-bank-proposes-tough-medicine-for-china/And how much will growth slow? The World Bank report apparently doesn’t say, but the consensus has been slowly moving down towards 5-6% annual growth over the next few years. That’s better than the crazy numbers of 8-9% most analysts were predicting even two years ago (and some still are), but it is still too high. GDP growth rates will slow a lot more than that. I still maintain that average growth in this decade will barely break 3%. It will take, however, at least another two or three years before a number this low falls within the consensus range.
And by the way when it does, metal prices should fall sharply. Copper prices have done reasonably well in the past few months as Chinese buyers have restocked, as we suggested might happen to our clients last fall. With the recent easing we may see more strength in copper over the next month or so, but I have little doubt that within two or three years copper prices are going to be a whole lot lower than they are today. Chinese investment demand simply cannot hold up much longer. (emphasis is mine)
Pettis has extensive knowledge and experience in China along with information conduits into some of the highest echelons of Chinese government. He is widely recognised as a practical, objective, non political economic commentator with regard to China so I tend to give considerable weight to what he has to say. However, taking Pettis’ comments in context with global economic events only adds veracity to his conclusions. His posts are well worth the read. http://www.mpettis.com/
Adding to Australia’s woes will be a lessening dependence on imported ore from Chinese steel mills.
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Metals/8062951He also said the development of iron ore mines — both in China and overseas — has gained momentum in the past few years, adding that the relatively slow development of China’s domestic iron ore mines had been speeded up and was now growing at an annual rate of about 20%, gradually reducing China’s dependence on imported iron ore and this had resulted in significant changes in international iron ore supply and demand.
By 2015 the Pilbera region alone will have an export capacity of 800 million mt/yr. That doesn’t stack well against Chinese demand at its peak …
China imported a total of 686.06 million mt of iron ore in 2011, up 10.9% year on year, according to figures from China Customs
Couple this with considerable capacity building investment in other countries I can only conclude that we are in for a sustained commodity glut lasting possibly decades. Collectively all this puts this graph in to context.
Source http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/02/parko-meet-petard/The lesson from this graph is that when commodities peak fairly quickly as they have done in recent times then we can expect them to decline as fast if not faster. This peak is one of the fastest and highest to date. It doesn’t bode well for the reset when it happens.
Could this be the start of the reset?
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/03/trade-deficit-stuns-everybody-but-mb/There has been a massive slump in the nation’s trade performance, with the trade balance plunging almost $2 billion from a strong surplus to a large deficit in the space of a month.
The value of iron ore exports in January were down $2,154m from their peak levels reached in October 2011 ($6,275m). The fall in iron ore exports now sees coal as Australia’s largest single export commodity by value, accounting for 23.7% of total merchandise exports in January versus iron ore’s 21.4% share:
I tend to think anyone riding the resource boom in housing has limited time left to bank their gains.
The Freckle
Hi Sundance. Ill start with a quote from an american fund manager struggling to contain the investing anxiety of his clients especially those in ‘our’ age bracket.
My greatest concern as an investment manager is the possibility that some number of our shareholders will grow so exasperated with remaining defensive during these periods that they capitulate and take a significant position in the market at the worst possible point.
Kind of sums it up really. You’re hitting that middle aged bracket and you see problems realising your retirement dreams against the backdrop of a global financial melt down. Shares and retirement funds taking a pasting, relatively neutral fixed interest opportunities, investments not really performing as expected and time simply running out to get to that retirement goal line.
So people like yourself who’ve seen somewhat of a mixed bag of investment returns over the last decade possibly a hit to investment asset values and are now looking to somehow make up ground perhaps. So you’ve become proactive and are looking to take control of the situation personally.
Before I go on let me know if that’s a reasonably accurate synopsis of your current situation. If I’m wrong I’ll head on my merry way and continue to roust up the populace here.
Regards The Freckle
PS: I’m bearish on property and regularly bang heads from time to time with some of the lads here. So feel free to explore some of my postings and people I banter with to get a better picture of any sage advice that may be given. (click on my nick name at the top of this post and two options will appear, click on View all posts by this user
There’s plenty to read if it’s a rainy day.
