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  • Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    With these interest rates you will be finding them in almost every property you look at.

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Not yet 1% rates but many saying another 1% cut in December.

    Rates for the home owner starting with a 4 by March?

    What do you think?

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Thanks C2 – rates could go a long way down yet. I heard something about 4.5% cash rate in general media yesterday.

    I am sure many of us are doing the sums at what point you can build a new dwelling and hold at a cash neutral position.

    There is alot of stock siting on the market in some areas so you would imagine this would get taken up first.

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    What the?

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Make that a triple of the first home buyers grant!!!

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    The US is already half way through it's recession which is forcast to last 16 months or a bit longer.

    Back in January their recession was not news as we were more worried about the price of a tank of petrol and that whale over in pittwater.

    Boy is it news now.

    We have turned the corner into a low interest rate low growth environment.

    Finance will be harder to get for non complying loans but banks are in the business of lending money. That is their core business. That is what they do. They loan money to people.

    https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forums/property-investing/general-property/4324163?#comment-179801 

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    WEALTH 4 LIFE – Image the cashflow – finance at 1% and rental returns at 6+%

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    "Thats easy because you and I like so many other people here are in the business and derive an income from finance, real estate sales, construction, renovation or coaching so we need to keep pepping up or future clients."

    Yeah, but I don't reckon anyone will invest in anything because of what anyone posts in here.

    People think about investing last. That's why I reckon as money gets cheaper people will simply spend it not invest it.

    And now starts the new industry – not how we can make you money but how we can "save you" and "survive the crisis" spruikers.
     

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Okay then – why do we believe the good news and not the bad out of the same speech from the imf. All/most of the media comes from these source documents.

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    so where is the hope today for the majority verses the minority??

    Why should we not believe the IMF prediction that australia will do better and grow at over 2% next year?

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Crashy – you are probably a bit ahead of the curve.

    There is usually not much hoopla about property until it is too late or at least until most of the gains have been made. There will be a dozen reno shows on tv this time next year and we will all be back on these forums discussing how smart we are and how much money we have made. Or will we?

    By the time people are interested again alot of buying and profit taking will have occurred and we will all be asked to line up and buy the seminar about how to do it. That's a bit cynical, perhaps too cynical really. Let's stay positive.

    On the interest rate front: Well at the outset I will say this. There IS such as thing as good news. In order not to turn these forum posts into small novels then I will make some sweeping statements.

    The IMF says in a report released yesterday that there will be no recession in Australia. In fact, growth will remain above 2% for all of 2009 – but someone forgot to tell the media.

    Our banks were ranked 4th out of about 130 of the worlds banks for security.

    Lower dollar higher exports.

    Higher unemployment at around 5%.

    So what does this all mean. Well I would gestimate the following based on my gut feelings and in the end as an investor that is all you can do. That is, take a position based on your view of what is going to happen.

    I got invited to dinner which was nice and I wondered does the fact that the person who invited me now has about $250 extra per month in their pocket due to the mortgage rate reduction have anything to do with it. Probably not on this occassion but I am sure the restaurrant does not care why we eat their food and drink their wine and contribute to their overhead. They are pleased to see us.

    The effect of interest rate cuts on the domestic economy will be positive. There is no doubt about that. It would not be to much of a stretch to think that rates will fall another 1% and it will be sooner rather than later. So in the above example my friend may invite me on a short holiday with their $500 a month extra in their pocket. Who know's.

    What will we do with all our new cash. Most of us will spend it. Discretionary spending that is. We will not invest it.

    We have been hammered over the past year or two with nothing but bad news. Fuel cost, mortgage repayments and the list goes on. The first thing that consumers will do is treat any new money as a windfall and spending it quickly without thinking about the future too much. Reward themselves with something nice or do something fun or go somewhere nice.

    You would think that we would start to hide some cash under the matress but I can't see that happening. Let's face it most of us just spend everything we have and maybe a little more than that.

    When will people start investing in property again. That is, when will everyone be doing it and when will it be the only thing people talk about at parties and the back yard bbq? Who know's. I don't think it will be this year and noone does anything over the holiday months. Maybe average investors will need enough time away from the constant barage of bad news and enough time for the smoke to clear before they can actually see what is going on and even think about investing in property.

    On the flip side as investors we are constantly told to buy our straw hats in the winter, break away from the herd and look to the fundamentals when we invest. We don't though. We sit and wait until everyone is doing it.

    Don't get me wrong. It's hard to take the plunge. It's hard to be first and even harder to do new things. It's hard to see positive outcomes when all you hear in negative sentiment. It's hard to have confidence when all people see is doom.

    I do know one thing. There is no point in being right about the market, any market, if you are not investing in it and you do not stand to profit. There is merit in taking a position and if that position is to sit out a few round then so be it.

    Actively monitoring the market and looking for the right opportunities is very different to sitting on the side line and doing nothing.

    Let's face it. Some people don't know how to do anything except complain and be negative. When the market is high it is about to crash and when it has crashed they told us so. They are in your office or on your train on the way to work. They have that look on their face, a smug look at the moment but look a little closer and it is the look of someone who has the ability to read the market but does not have the kahunas to do anything. I can't think of anything worse.

    So what does the drop in the cost of credit mean. Just my opinion it means that most of us will have a bit more to spend on consumer goods.

    What should it mean – new opportunity!

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    @don
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    Post Count: 1,086

    Not 1% rates yet but a 1% cut. 

    The Australia Market soars and property trust track upward.

    More rate cuts to come!!! Watch this space.

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    @don
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    Post Count: 1,086

    18 months more pain before the gain

    Perhaps but I predict/no guarantee that in 18months there will be a host of seminars and books about how you can make a killing in Real Estate.

    The catch will be it will be all strories about what investors are doing right now in this market and how they profited.

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    @don
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    Employers set to lure skilled workers to Southland

    4:00AM Sunday Aug 31, 2008
    Andrea Milner

    Tim Shadbolt says Southland's economy is comparable to that of top OECD nations. Photo / Getty Images

    Tim Shadbolt says Southland's economy is comparable to that of top OECD nations. Photo / Getty Images

    Southland employers are set to launch a raiding party to lure Auckland's skilled workers to the region led by the Mayor of Invercargill, Tim Shadbolt.

    Shadbolt will return to his old home town at the head of a platoon of businesses, recruiters, educational institutions and real estate agents to put the case for Southland as part of the New Zealand Herald's Your Career Expo next month.

    Shadbolt says that the raiding party is considering establishing a village rather than a stall at the expo. Members will do everything they can to entice skilled workers south.

    The region needs an injection of 18,000 employees, Shadbolt says – and if oil is struck, that number will increase dramatically.

    "We're desperate. We have a booming dairy industry with 100 farms waiting for conversion, we've got dairy factories opening in Invercargill and Gore, and the Fonterra factory is being doubled in size."

    Scott O'Donnell, managing director of the Richardson Group, a major transport and construction services employer in Southland, is joining the delegation coming north to look for more workers.

    Economic statistics from the National Bank show Southland remains the fastest growing economy in the country, with annual growth of 3.4 per cent in the year to March – compared with Auckland's 1.7 per cent, below the national average.

    Retail spending growth is the second-highest in the South Island, ASB data shows, and unemployment is also the country's lowest, averaging 2.1 per cent during the past year.

    Car registrations have risen during the past year – the only region to register such an increase.

    "If Southland was a country it would be near the top of the OECD for economic growth," Shadbolt says. "Why wouldn't you want to live here?"

    Southland's healthy economic growth is partially driven by the comparatively lesser amount of speculative housing investment, Shadbolt says.

    "While every other region in New Zealand is suffering from a decrease in housing values, ours went up 8 per cent over the past year, which has helped stabilise our economy."

    House price growth there is cooling rapidly after last year's burst above 20 per cent year-on-year, but is still well ahead of anywhere else in the country.

    Sean Bellew, a real estate agent at Southernwide Real Estate, says property investor interest in the region remains strong despite the nation's market downturn, and that there is a lot of cash surplus available in the strong rural sector.

    Bellew doesn't expect the Southland property market to further regress and forecasts Southland leading a market upturn in the next three to four months.

    "People in Auckland have a negative view of Invercargill," says O'Donnell, "but the cost of housing is low – an executive house is $300,000."

    "The biggest commute we have is seven minutes and we have huge sports facilities – indoor stadiums, indoor velodromes and the best motor-racing track in the country.

    "It is also the entrance point to the Fiordland National Park, Queenstown and Wanaka."

    Shadbolt says the expo gives Aucklanders a chance to look at other opportunities while the country's biggest city grapples with problems, such as inadequate infrastructure.

    Having experienced life in both centres, he is confident of luring hundreds of stressed Aucklanders to a more relaxed and family-friendly life in the south.

    Penny Simmonds, of the Southern Institute of Technology, says a cheaper lifestyle and ease of employment is part of a package the community offers. "People need to look at what their money buys in Southland, the disposable income it can give them."

    The institute is still running its zero fees scheme and Simmonds says that is an important plank in attracting people to study, and hopefully retaining them in employment locally. Its representatives will be at the expo looking to attract staff and students.

    "Nearly all our students are working at least part time while they're here and we are working closely with employers to try to assist with filling critical job shortages," says Simmonds.

    Whether oil is struck in the region or not, Shadbolt says easily accessible areas of lignite coal will continue to power economic growth.

    "If we can find a way to convert coal into diesel in a way that doesn't hurt the environment, we'll be able to supply all of New Zealand's electricity needs for the next 200 years."

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Miners generally aren't buyers in the area that they work (they are itenerate). How long is the boom going to last (until China & India run out of money). Will the mines pack up and go? Yes, eventually. You will need to find out the life of the mine, its viability and whether there are any other industries which will survive without the money from the mines.

    This is generally the case.

    However, there are certain "lifestyle" locations available that allow miners to work and live in the region. Companies such as xstra are advertising for workers in these  locations – people buy in these places.

    Is the town a pile of red dirt or a proper town with other things going for it????

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
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    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    probably safe to invest locally at the moment. Even select areas in NZ offer some very high yields at the moment.

    http://www.cashflowproperties.co.nz

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    It is a very interesting question indeed. Given the high levels of volatility it does make the mind tick over at the possibilities. If I lived there then it may be a different story. It would be hard to see any light at the end of the tunnel with the constant barage of negative media coming at you. A good time to have some cash in the bank and buy a bargain.

    The task of buying in the US from here is simply too huge as a few have found (unless you consider yourself a sophisticated investor) . I will go out on lim and say that in my opinion that goes for any foreign market. There were posts on here years ago about steve (forum steve) buying a whole heap of USA property but I never did follow the progress on that deal.

    Now more than ever you would have to personally be an expert in each regional market to have a prayer.

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    Yes nigel 8% is a very good yield for a residential property at the moment down south. I always stick up for my adopted home town as there are bigger things on the horizon which is why I am still buying there. I admit that it would probably be hard for an outsider to find good value but we are working on a deal (residential) right now that would return well over 10% with a nice equity gain on purchase.

    I am also buying in OZ again right now which is a huge buzz.. Maybe the US would be the go also if there were more hours in the day!

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    most banks in nz have fixed rates under 9%  at the moment. The catch is you would have to fix for 5 years to get those. If you have a good broker you would get at least .5% (probably more) off that as well as the bank paying for your legal fees, zero application fees, waive valuation fees, lends of 90% lvr to aussies (85% plus for self employed without income history)  without any restrictions and foreign income can be used  in servicablility calculations so it is pretty easy to get funds in NZ.  Some of  the nz brokers my help here but they do not charge LMI (have not heard of it there) either which is significant for self employed or full time investors. There are some excellent brokers on this forum servicing many countries but borrowing for usa is not that easy all the time.

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
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    we purchased a house six weeks ago in invercargill with yield of over 8% on a subdividable section in a very well regarded part of town which is now fully tenanted on fixed term leases. Granted they don't grow on trees these days so some say they don't exist – they do! 

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

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