All Topics / Forum Frolic / Inflation – have I got this right?

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  • Profile photo of BennyBenny
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 1,416

    I hear the news, etc and it all looks like inflation is being beaten down by the RBA’s rash moves (my opinion) over the last 12 months.  Like, I know our rates were on a super-low “emergency setting” so for sure, they needed to rise off 0.1%.  No argument from me on that one.   What I did think back then, was that, if it was such an emergency, then a 1% increase right of the bat wouldn’t have been a bad move.  Instead, they nibbled away at the Cash Rate for over a year.

    So OK, I think that could have been done differently, but, as most would know via the other topic, I have long thought they went TOO far.  If they had stopped around 3.1% that would have saved a lot of angst.  But, was I right there?  Did it REALLY need to get as high as it has?

    I’m still thinking “NO”, and here’s why – just yesterday I heard the inflation was down to 4.9%, below expectations of 5.2%, and a good drop below Sept (5.6%).   Now, here’s where I am struggling – these are yearly figures (CPI from Oct22 – 23) and, to get a yearly figure down so much in a month, isn’t this indicative of a HUGE drop in the current month?

    Is this how it works?  Sep22’s figures no longer count (these could’ve been quite high I guess) and Oct23’s are added on.  0.7% difference in a month parlays out to 8.4% in a year – so isn’t the current trend already ENOUGH to do the job the RBA wants done?  Can we expect 4.2% for Nov? and 3.5% for Dec?   I know, it’s Xmas, but then Dec 22’s figures will drop off (and they could’ve been huge….)    I guess World events can impact to stuff it all up though.

    Am I out in left field on this?  Or has the RBA broken the back of the problem, and all we need is to “hurry up and wait”?


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