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  • Profile photo of John-USA-CommercialREJohn-USA-CommercialRE
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    Colony House Apartments, a 20-unit apartment property in Tampa, has sold for $1,265,000, or $63,250 per unit.

    Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services marketed the property for Colony House of Tampa LLC, a Brandon-based company run by Brian J. Clavering, state business records show.

    The buyer was a California-based 1031-exchange listed in court records as Ray Joseph Enterprises Inc. The same buyer also recently purchased Church Avenue Apartments in Tampa for $665,000.

    Earle Hyman and Nicholas Meoli of Marcus & Millichap represented the buyer in both deals.

    Colony House, 4332 West North B Street in Westshore, was built in 1965 and completely renovated in 2007.

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    Profile photo of John-USA-CommercialREJohn-USA-CommercialRE
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    Lake Nona’s commercial center near Medical City is getting closer to putting some shovels in the dirt.

    Orlando City Council on April 8 approved Lake Nona Land Co. LLC’s master plan for a corporate campus, which includes 570,000 square feet of general office space in three buildings, a 150-room hotel, and two 10,000-square-foot restaurants, along with 2,830 parking spaces in two parking structures and surface parking lots.

    The project would be built on 17 acres north of Lake Nona Boulevard, east of Medical City Drive and south of State Road 417.

    The project is a big part of the more than $500 million worth of commercial projects planned for the 7,000-acre community in southeast Orlando this year and next year.

    Be sure to check back for more details on this and other projects in Lake Nona.

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    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    The thing to keep in mind is that one of the main reasons that the economy is flat is due to the lack of finance. If you are running a business and no one will lend you money it makes it very difficult to expand and hire staff.  However money is starting to flow again and we are seeing demand starting  to improve. No one is suggesting that they economy is booming, however the time to enter a market is when it is at the bottom with signs of improvement. One sign is that you can get a 60% lend on quality properties as a foreign national through commercial banks.

    Now i am not asking anyone to follow us blindly. I suggest that you due your own due diligence go over have a look and make up your own mind. i believe that there are great opportunities in the united states. I still believe that Apartment complexes make a safer investment than office or retail. However there are always exceptional deals. I think that the nature of retail is changing, with far more people now buying on line. But when you go to the states the shops are always full of people.

    Assess these opportunities for yourself, still great opportunities in Australia. However if you are selective on what you buy and work with the right people on the ground then you can invest successfully.

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    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Nigel Kibel wrote:
    The thing to keep in mind is that one of the main reasons that the economy is flat is due to the lack of finance.

    There's enough finance around if you can meet requirements however there's no demand in the system to justify expanding. JPM has a bank full of money and no one to lend it to. Click the graphic for the article.

    Quote:
    If you are running a business and no one will lend you money it makes it very difficult to expand and hire staff.  However money is starting to flow again and we are seeing demand starting  to improve.

    You need to read these two reports/presentation because you don't appear to understand the US mortgage and finance market. 

    http://www.aei.org/files/2013/04/08/-whalen-presentation-bubble-bubble_141325940605.pdf

    http://www.aei.org/files/2013/04/08/-brinkmann-presentation-bubble-bubble_141240680914.pdf

    Quote:
    No one is suggesting that they economy is booming, however the time to enter a market is when it is at the bottom with signs of improvement. One sign is that you can get a 60% lend on quality properties as a foreign national through commercial banks.

    No it's not booming but you are suggesting it has bottomed and is recovering. There is an overwhelming pool of data that contradicts that position.

    Quote:
    Now i am not asking anyone to follow us blindly. I suggest that you due your own due diligence go over have a look and make up your own mind. i believe that there are great opportunities in the united states. I still believe that Apartment complexes make a safer investment than office or retail. However there are always exceptional deals.

    The problem with your assumptions is that your time frame is now. I'm looking 3, 5, 10 years down the track as most investors do.

    Quote:
    I think that the nature of retail is changing, with far more people now buying on line. But when you go to the states the shops are always full of people.

    Online retail accounts for 8% of retails sales. 2014 projections suggest 10%. Shops full of people means very little. It could mean all those unemployed people are hangin' out the mall for something to do.

    US Retail Sales is at a current level of 372.73B, down from 374.89B last month. This represents a monthly annualized growth rate of -6.90%, compared to a long term average annualized growth rate of 4.47%.

    Quote:
    Assess these opportunities for yourself, still great opportunities in Australia. However if you are selective on what you buy and work with the right people on the ground then you can invest successfully.

    Broad sweeping statements again.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Nigel and Rob here's your problem in a nutshell. If I discuss the US market with say Kyler, Emma, Jay, Alex and a few others I get a detailed, justified and evidentially supported response. These guys know their markets intimately, have business models that make practical sense and admit the risks inherent in the markets they're exposed to. They offer complete service backed investing strategies with risk mitigation. They provide detailed reasoning and a rationale for what they do.

    The best I can hope for from you guys is; go have a look, read the local papers and get a good investment team (and yes we know who you mean).

    The difference between them and you is that they honestly elaborate on the problems and risks and offer solutions. You guys just spruik the market and gloss over everything. 

    No potential investor needs to go and have a look. Before embarking on that expense it's common sense to do as much DD from this end first. There's nothing in that preliminary DD that leads me to believe that the US market for an international investor is a good long term bet. Quite the contrary in fact. Going there won't change my opinion. Changing my opinion requires someone to provide counter strategies that could mitigate those problems and convince me that they are workable. You two haven't even come close to showing me the path to riches in the US market at this point. In fact if I was to go with you guys I fear my money and I would soon part company.

    Profile photo of John-USA-CommercialREJohn-USA-CommercialRE
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    Growth in Jacksonville, FL.  A near-dock rail facility at Jacksonville’s port will likely be open for business by April 2015, a port official said.

    Joe Miller, the Jacksonville Port Authority's senior director of facilities development, shared the project's schedule at a luncheon meeting of logistics professionals Wednesday.

    Jaxport will issue a request for proposals for the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility, or ICTF, May 1 and the board will approve a contractor in September. Construction is estimated to take another 18 months, Miller said.

    The project is already fully funded by a $10 million grant from the federal government and a $20 million match from the state of Florida.

    The ICTF will make Jaxport more competitive in the growing international container ship market by enabling the immediate transfer of containers from ships dockside to trains.

    Asked how much an ITCF might increase the number of containers shipped through Jaxport, Dennis Kelly, general manager of Trapac, Jaxport’s container terminal, said a normal industry trend is 15 to 20 percent.

    Jaxport’s board in March authorized staff to acquire by eminent domain, if necessary, a half acre of privately owned land overlapping the site. Ownership rights to the entire parcel has been disputed by a developer who sought to purchase the property, Jaxport staff has said. Eminent domain would be a quick way to resolve any third party interest.

    Jaxport Senior Director of Planning and Properties David Kaufman on Wednesday said Jaxport is working first to settle the issue through mediation.

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    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Must be a slow news day in Jacksonville. I'm bemused as to why we're getting cut and paste advertorials with no discussion. Are you on some kind of affiliate program for the Jacksonville Business Journal or where ever you found it?

    I thought this was a better article about FL port expansions even though its Jan13 and covers the above story which is more about a land grab/quarrel.

    Profile photo of John-USA-CommercialREJohn-USA-CommercialRE
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    One of the markers in economics for the U.S. and how people are spending their dollars is the occupancy of the hotel sector.  Below is some data to understand this.

    All Hotel Performance Measures to Advance in 2013

    The year 2013 started positively for the hotel sector. Room demand rose 4.3 percent in January, pushing up occupancy 180 basis points from one year earlier, while ADR and RevPAR logged robust gains of 5.1 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively. Although one month does not constitute a trend, a 1.8 percent increase in room demand to a new record level will occur in 2013. Federal spending reductions could result in more modest growth in areas most dependent on federal spending, including Maryland and Virginia. Oil-and-gas states Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas will continue to see high levels of demand from work crews in the field as long as oil prices remain above $70 per barrel. In addition, greater automobile production will support business travel in several states in the Midwest and South. Construction will remain subdued, generating a slight 0.9 percent gain in available rooms this year, and contribute to a 60-basis point rise in occupancy to 62 percent. A 4.8 percent increase in ADR to $111.24 will drive most of the gain in room revenue and trigger a 5.8 percent jump in RevPAR to $68.97.

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    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    Hi rob

    Thank you for at least posting what is going on. It would appear that Freckle has nothing better to do with his time but to post rubbish. You seem to resort to people intelligence. Well I am sure that no one is as intelligent as you. In fact why do we even bother posting anything, I think that you should be the only person to post since clearly you understand the world wide markets so much better than anyone else on the forum

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    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    I would also be keen to hear Steve McKnights views on this given that he is also involved in a big way in the Florida market. How does he feel about The Freckles continual negative comments about the Florida market

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    Nigel Kibel wrote:
    I would also be keen to hear Steve McKnights views on this given that he is also involved in a big way in the Florida market. How does he feel about The Freckles continual negative comments about the Florida market

    You're a regular here I thought you would have known. SM has indicated on numerous occasions he believes the FL res prop market has seen its best days and is pumping commercial as an alternative now. 

    I agree on the first disagree on the second.

    Here's where we stand. You're the positive guy pumping FL for all its worth. I'm the Devils advocate. The negative guy. 

    In every market there are forces that drive it either up or down. Normally these forces co-exist and one has ascendency over the other. Industry players out of self interested tend to spruik the positives and ignore or gloss over the negatives. When we're in particularly challenging times industry individuals have difficulty countering negative sentiment because they either can't find sufficient positives to support their position, lack the skill to devise market counter strategies in difficult markets and/or have limited understanding of broader economic drivers and how they might impact 3, 5, 10 year time lines.

    Nigel there are 2 of you one of me. You have local knowledge and experience and many years in the game. It should be easy for you guys to outgun little ol' me. 

    Jay Hinrichs has a model and a strategy to mitigate risk in his US markets. What do you guys have? 

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    John-USA-CommercialRE wrote:
    One of the markers in economics for the U.S. and how people are spending their dollars is the occupancy of the hotel sector.  Below is some data to understand this.

    .

    Tourism is as we know a major part of FL economy and is a substantial provider of jobs. During the GFC08 event tourism took a hit that showed how vulnerable FL (and other states) are to economic down turns.

    Here's your problem Rob. I understand the ports expansion thing. I understand the tourism thing. I understand the jobs growth thing albeit lowpaid.

    As an investor in a region I want to know what the long term economic trends and drivers are and what strengths an economy has  given the GFC08 event. In other words resiliency. GFC08 showed the lack of economic resiliency in FL. Given the challenges and difficulties of the US economy what investing strategy should I use to mitigate future risk?

    What drives the property market, supports it and how does this play over 3, 5, 10 years?

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Nigel Kibel wrote:
    Hi rob

    Thank you for at least posting what is going on. It would appear that Freckle has nothing better to do with his time but to post rubbish. You seem to resort to people intelligence. Well I am sure that no one is as intelligent as you.

    What is going on??? Petty land disputes?? How does that advance our knowledge of FL??

    There's lotsa smart people here Nigel although not all are proactive in exposing the real facts. I like to test those assumptions people often put forward as accurate depictions of markets or who suggest reasons for investing with little supporting evidence.

    Quote:
    In fact why do we even bother posting anything, I think that you should be the only person to post since clearly you understand the world wide markets so much better than anyone else on the forum

    You have equal opportunity to expose your knowledge but somehow seem reluctant to do so.

    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    Freckle that is not entirely correct , what Steve has said is that the days of finding bargains in Florida have gone. The reason is that market conditions have improved. Now if we go back and compare two States Florida and Texas. As you would know most lending policies in the United States are determined by the states not the federal government. So before the GFC in Texas to buy a house in most cases you still needed a 20% deposit plus if you run 3 monies behind in your mortgage your home is foreclosed and auctioned on the court house steps.

    In Florida the opposite happened the market was very speculative and prices went through the roof. At the height of the market condos were selling at $300,000 which are today $75,000 that were only ever worth $150,000. In 2008 it was possible to get properties like this for as low as $40,000. In fact one of my mentoring students brought a property in early 2009 for $46,000 that had previously been sold for $380,000. But it is far less common today because the market is slowly improving.

    Now here is the thing. If you look at returns on apartment complexes in Texas and look at the same type of properties in Florida the cap rate returns in Florida can be a lot higher. So as much as I love Texas I also see that given the occupancy rates are running at around 95% in both states I can only put the differences in prices to reflect the fact that during the GFC prices in Texas overall held up well compared to Florida where prices at least on paper fell by as much as 50%. Now the apartment complexes did not fall by those sort of rates however to me it seems logical that there may be a room for prices to improve in apartment complexes over the next few years.

    In terms of commercial deals I guess that depends on the deal. I personally prefer apartment complexes however if you were buying a supermarket I would have thought that would still be a safe bet.

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    Nigel wrote:
    I also see that given the occupancy rates are running at around 95% in both states

    Rental Vacancy Rate for Florida (FLRVAC)

    2011: 14.9 Percent   Last 5 Observations

    Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2012-04-06 5:16 PM CDT

    Interesting. Florida's average vacancy rate over the last 26 years has been 10.98% according to the FRED. Lowest it got to was 7.8% almost 20 years ago.

    I find it hard to believe that in the last 12 months FL vacancy rate has dropped to 5% from 15%. Miraculous!!!

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    Nigel Kibel wrote:
    Freckle that is not entirely correct , what Steve has said is that the days of finding bargains in Florida have gone.

    Is that somehow different to "SM has indicated on numerous occasions he believes the FL res prop market has seen its best days"

    Quote:
    The reason is that market conditions have improved. Now if we go back and compare two States Florida and Texas. As you would know most lending policies in the United States are determined by the states not the federal government. So before the GFC in Texas to buy a house in most cases you still needed a 20% deposit plus if you run 3 monies behind in your mortgage your home is foreclosed and auctioned on the court house steps.

    The Texas market is driven by attractive business conditions compared to other states. Real business growth underpins Texas' economy and buffers it against downturns. Having gas and oil helps considerably. It's comparison is West Australia. Florida on the other hand is struggling to get off the floor and its economy remains vulnerable to further shocks. Hot money is driving FL's market because it is perceived as being cheap bargain basement stuff. When the hot money stops there's nothing to support prices. Poof bubble burst and we're likely to be back to square one.

    Quote:
    In Florida the opposite happened the market was very speculative and prices went through the roof.

    And nothing's changed. A speculative bubble driven market vulnerable to downturns.

    Quote:
    At the height of the market condos were selling at $300,000 which are today $75,000 that were only ever worth $150,000. In 2008 it was possible to get properties like this for as low as $40,000. In fact one of my mentoring students brought a property in early 2009 for $46,000 that had previously been sold for $380,000. But it is far less common today because the market is slowly improving.

    Now here is the thing. If you look at returns on apartment complexes in Texas and look at the same type of properties in Florida the cap rate returns in Florida can be a lot higher. So as much as I love Texas I also see that given the occupancy rates are running at around 95% in both states I can only put the differences in prices to reflect the fact that during the GFC prices in Texas overall held up well compared to Florida where prices at least on paper fell by as much as 50%. Now the apartment complexes did not fall by those sort of rates however to me it seems logical that there may be a room for prices to improve in apartment complexes over the next few years.

    In terms of commercial deals I guess that depends on the deal. I personally prefer apartment complexes however if you were buying a supermarket I would have thought that would still be a safe bet.

    The history lesson is fascinating I'm sure but what or how do you play the FL market going forward 3, 5, 10 years?

    Profile photo of John-USA-CommercialREJohn-USA-CommercialRE
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    Investors around the world seeking American real estate.  Interesting article:

    http://afire.org/sites/default/files/pdf/press/2013-foreign-investment-survey-pr.pdf

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    Profile photo of John-USA-CommercialREJohn-USA-CommercialRE
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    China seems to like the USA Real Estate as well.

    Chinese Politicians Are Buying Billions In U.S. Real Estate

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/22/2013 21:12 -0400

    ChinaCorruptionGross Domestic ProductHousing BubbleHousing MarketMonetizationMortgage Backed SecuritiesNoneReal estateSwitzerland

    Back in September, we explained that when it comes to "boom" in US real estate, there are three key driving forces: i) the Fed's monetization of mortgage backed securities whose impact however is at best to stabilize the demand floor (and judging by the recent collapse in refi activity even that is questionable), ii) an implicit subsidy as banks keep millions of units on their books (to get a sense of how much check out at the chart in "Six Month + Delinquent Mortgages Amount To More Than Half Of Bank of America's Market Cap") in some phase of the foreclosure process, and away from clearing in the market, and perhaps most importantly, iii) the fact that the NAR can legally launder offshore money courtesy of being exempt from anti-money laundering provisions. This allows billions in ill-gotten offshore cash, sourced primarily from Russia and China, to be "invested" in US real-estate, with no cost or pricing discrimation and without any questions asked from any authorities. Because, sure enough, the final result can be spun as a "boom" in real estate by the administration and the banks so very invested in reflating the housing bubble.

    Read the full article:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-22/chinese-politicians-are-buying-billions-us-real-estate

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    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    How is it drivel

    He is listing what he does it should tell you what his experience is. He has printed information on the fact that china is buying a lot of real estate. They are doing this by the plane load.

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    Cut and paste is working well since you got it fixed.

    So lets see if I understand this correctly. (I already know all this stuff but since you bought it up…)

    We have a US property market that is;

    • so fragile that only life support in the form of a FED IV that injects $40B/mth of MBS is required
    • to backstop that the government gives the NAR a let to take on any criminal organisation wishing to launder its hard won gains into the RE market, and
    • then of course we have corrupt foreign investors who need somewhere to hide their ill gotten gains.

    Miami was built on drug money after all and Vegas was a Mafia experiment.

    Of course this will all  go swimmingly.

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