Forums / Community / Opinionated! / Somersoft – recent moderation goings on

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  • Profile photo of AUSPROPAUSPROP
    Participant
    @ausprop
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 953

    oh is this where everyone has gone. maybe Dazz could be enticed back here…. full circle

    Profile photo of Michael 888Michael 888
    Participant
    @michael-888
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 260
    WinstonWolfe wrote:
    Hi Mr Michael. In 2011, I'll continue to read widely and deeply on what really drives house prices, and post about it. ……………………………………………May all your attainable New Year's resolutions be attained. 

    Thx WW. The personal one's are back on track and (to date) looking the goods.
     
    Investment wise, I shall be a very careful observer in 2011, however ready to grab opportunity by the scruff of the neck when/wherever it presents as long as it  is on special and it  cashflows.

    Ausprop, the smilies and avatars are also more dynamic/kinetic here   but you already knew that.

    Happy New Year to all 

    Profile photo of WinstonWolfeWinstonWolfe
    Member
    @winstonwolfe
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 30
    AUSPROP wrote:
    oh is this where everyone has gone. maybe Dazz could be enticed back here…. full circle

    Hey AP. No, not everyone came here. Only me it seems.
    I think Bill.L posted on the new Australian Property Forum a while back.
    Dazz isn't active anywhere I am aware of….probably off building his real world empire.
    And Sunfish is back on Somersoft.

    I occasionally skim the topics at SS to gauge permabull sentiment….but am spending most of my net time improving my understanding of commodities and global equities, stuff that property permabulls have no interest in cos God told them no matter what happens in the rest of the world, property always goes up     :)

    edit:
    Happy New Year Michael. There should be some ripe opportunities coming up in 2011 for the wise man. Was talking with a Nundah (northern Brisbane suburb) REA at  a party last night. He reckons more builders are unloading their development sites cos it is hard to get dev't finance without significant cash flow from other avenues.

    Happy to put you on to him when you are ready. He is a young fella (been an REA for 10 years) but his family have been in the area for 30+, and he knows everyone.

    Profile photo of DerekDerek
    Member
    @derek
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 3,544
    duckster wrote:
    I was reading the newspaper the other day and it stated 11,000 houses ($2.5 billion) had been foreclosed on in the last 5 years

    Hi Duckster,

    Going back four years or so I happened to hear Michael Matusik speak at a seminar in Brisbane and one of the stand out comments for me was the number of people claiming 'mortgage stress'. At the time (mid 2007) a survey indicated 17,000 people were claiming to be experiencing mortgage stress. At the time 17,000 equated to around 0.41% of all properties owned in Australia.

    Keeping to one side the impact on the individuals foreclosed on for a minute – to me 11,000 foreclosures in a five year time frame is very good. ESpecially in the dramatic circumstances we have experienced since mid 2008.

    Fast forward to the end the middle of 2010 and CBA produced a stress assessment of their loan book.

    Excluding those loans which were mortgage insured only 0.2% of all CBA loans were considered at risk of default. The stress testing undertaken included rising interest rates to 14%, unemployment rates at 10% (similar to the early 90's when foreclosures peaked at 0.5% ) and property values declined by 30%.

    Combined these are very 'extreme' stressors and to think only 0.2% (exc LMI loans) were at risk of default under these influences is somewhat of a testament to our banking industry (never thought I would say that).

    The CBA report also made comment on the average LVRs of 43%, 70% of all CBA customers are, on average 9 months ahead in their mortgage repayments and other generally solid figures.

    On top of this the RBA regularly reports the foreclosure rates are steady and haven't deviated much from historical averages.
       
    A slightly different perspective

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