All Topics / Help Needed! / Best advice : Don’t invest into property : The australian market is CRASHING.

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  • Profile photo of yarposyarpos
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    mmmmm your probably right,  the end is nigh, we probably wont survive

    re your questions:

    1. you can use paid for services to get this information,  but you may get some idea of sale prices via http://www.domain.com.au/public/apm/saleshistory/default.aspx?mode=research

    2. conventional wisdom was that roughly 1/3 is owned, 1/3 under finance and 1/3 being rented.  I havent however seen a credible source of data to verify this.

    3. I assume you mean borrowed more than 100% of value at time of purchase.  Cant help you there,  and dont know where you would get aggregate data.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    yarpos wrote:
    1. you can use paid for services to get this information,  but you may get some idea of sale prices via http://www.domain.com.au/public/apm/saleshistory/default.aspx?mode=research

    2. conventional wisdom was that roughly 1/3 is owned, 1/3 under finance and 1/3 being rented.  I havent however seen a credible source of data to verify this.

    3. I assume you mean borrowed more than 100% of value at time of purchase.  Cant help you there,  and dont know where you would get aggregate data.

    1. Thanks for that – though I get no results found for most suburbs around me.  There is definately stuff listed. I guess it means nothing is selling? Also, there must be a government body that keeps track of the actual settlement prices and it must be obtainable from them? How can one trust the REAs are listing true prices? Anyone know?

    2. Wonder how close that rule of thirds is to the reality? Anyone know this one?

    3. I don't know exact financial terms but I mean how many investors owe the bank more than they actually own in the residential market. What is the ratio of borrowed to owned amongst residential property investors? I guess, using answer 2, it would approximate to twice as many are being paid for as what are paid off and now remortgaged?

    I am trying to gague how big the property problem is. Will it just burn buyers who have enterred the market in the last 5 years or does it have the potential to burn investors aswell?

    Profile photo of marty01marty01
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    WELL now I have heard it all! Go you Scamp!. Lets make a deal right now and see if your prepared to put your money were your mouth is!

    Your unqualified comments and reckless statments are some what completely unqualified. I would like you to post on the internet the following:

    Copies of the sale and purchase agreements of the last five properties you bought, copies of what you spent on them, either, renos, developments or holding costs etc, Then a copy of your contracts when you sold them, current valuations,  your settlement statements and other like documents to prove your earnings. I will of course do the same.

    Then we will post our predictions for say the next  three deals we are both going to do. Lets say for the next twelve months. Then at the end of the twelve months, see how much money each of us have made. Now I gather beacuse your too scared about investing in australia, your investing will be offshore, so we can convert your currency into Aussie dollars.

    Once you have done this, lets see who has made the most? If you make more than I do, I'll buy you a new car!

    I assume that by sitting out of the market you are earning to much interest on your earnings in the bank to take on an investment? Or your doing 'oh so well' in that mighty stock market at the moment. There is some great buying opportunities at the moment, and plently of money to be made. More so than ever.

    Could you also please decalre to us all you total earnings through real estate investing/developing/renos/commercial or like over the last three years and of course be able to prove it.

    Would you care to meet face to face for a day to prove your claims based on experience?

    I think a after your comments on this forum best you answer all these questions and step up to the challenge of my competition for the next twelve months.

    Let me know the date, time and place we can begin the competition.

    Martin Ayles. (From a bloke thats invested once or twice in real estate) Adelaide!

    Profile photo of marty01marty01
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    WELL now I have heard it all! Go you Scamp!. Lets make a deal right now and see if your prepared to put your money were your mouth is!

    Your unqualified comments and reckless statments are some what completely unqualified. I would like you to post on the internet the following:

    Copies of the sale and purchase agreements of the last five properties you bought, copies of what you spent on them, either, renos, developments or holding costs etc, Then a copy of your contracts when you sold them, current valuations,  your settlement statements and other like documents to prove your earnings. I will of course do the same.

    Then we will post our predictions for say the next  three deals we are both going to do. Lets say for the next twelve months. Then at the end of the twelve months, see how much money each of us have made. Now I gather beacuse your too scared about investing in australia, your investing will be offshore, so we can convert your currency into Aussie dollars.

    Once you have done this, lets see who has made the most? If you make more than I do, I'll buy you a new car!

    I assume that by sitting out of the market you are earning to much interest on your earnings in the bank to take on an investment? Or your doing 'oh so well' in that mighty stock market at the moment. There is some great buying opportunities at the moment, and plently of money to be made. More so than ever.

    Could you also please decalre to us all you total earnings through real estate investing/developing/renos/commercial or like over the last three years and of course be able to prove it.

    Would you care to meet face to face for a day to prove your claims based on experience?

    I think a after your comments on this forum best you answer all these questions and step up to the challenge of my competition for the next twelve months.

    Let me know the date, time and place we can begin the competition.

    Martin Ayles. (From a bloke thats invested once or twice in real estate) Adelaide!

    Profile photo of blogsblogs
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    marty01 wrote:

     Lets make a deal right now and see if your prepared to put your money were your mouth is!

    Would you care to meet face to face for a day to prove your claims based on experience?

    I think a after your comments on this forum best you answer all these questions and step up to the challenge of my competition for the next twelve months.

    Let me know the date, time and place we can begin the competition.

    Martin Ayles. (From a bloke thats invested once or twice in real estate) Adelaide!

    Bwahahaahahaha this would have to win 'Internet Tough Guy' of the month competition by far!!!! Real professinal chump-what are you in grade six at school? lol how about I meet you behind the shelter shed and we'll work this out like men. Bwhahahahaahah and you expect people to pay for your advice bwhahahahahaa Im wiping away the tears!!!!!

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    blogs wrote:

    Bwahahaahahaha this would have to win 'Internet Tough Guy' of the month competition by far!!!! Real professinal chump-what are you in grade six at school? lol how about I meet you behind the shelter shed and we'll work this out like men. Bwhahahahaahah and you expect people to pay for your advice bwhahahahahaa Im wiping away the tears!!!!!

    You made me smile:)

    What is this, IMDB? I thought it was a place for serious discussion about property prices. Gotta wonder why so many investors are getting so defensive?

    Profile photo of Peak OilPeak Oil
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    I wanna put my money on the big guy to put the little one down in the 1st round! Too funny!

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    I just think its that time in the cycle. D & G posters are loving it because thing have swung to there corner. Let them have there moment in the sun. Yes rough times are ahead but long term i believe nothing will change. Buy well at a good price and hold on. You should be ok. And in the next cycle we can cover this same topic again,and again,and again.

    PS. Yes i believe property can/will go down. I dont know many people on these forums that think otherwise. But where will prices be in 10 to 20 years. Thats all i care about.

    Profile photo of jack04jack04
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    I'm one at a loss as to where the property market is heading wages have certainly not kept in line with the increase in property prices, add in petrol and general living expenses. Now we have interest rates at the highest in years, and even if the Reserve Bank start dropping official rates will or can the Banks with funding costs so high drop their rates accordingly All bets are on the credit crisis being around for at least another 18 to 24 months so does that mean banks cannot drop rates for this period – So how can the prices keep going up if nobody can afford them and what about those who overextended when interest rates were low How many are going to be on the end of a forced sale.

    Profile photo of yarposyarpos
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    jack04 wrote:
    I'm one at a loss as to where the property market is heading wages have certainly not kept in line with the increase in property prices, add in petrol and general living expenses. Now we have interest rates at the highest in years, and even if the Reserve Bank start dropping official rates will or can the Banks with funding costs so high drop their rates accordingly All bets are on the credit crisis being around for at least another 18 to 24 months so does that mean banks cannot drop rates for this period – So how can the prices keep going up if nobody can afford them and what about those who overextended when interest rates were low How many are going to be on the end of a forced sale.

    who says property is going up?  its been down or plateaued (depending on location) for a while now.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    I think most people agree that the growth many have enjoyed will not continue. Now its about building buffers ,sitting tight and if you are in the position to buy and want to. Then bargain hard.Many points argued at the moment are neither here nor there. Yes things will slow or go backwards. But if you are prepared then who cares. its about Long term people. Yes i genuinely feel for people who borrowed heavily at the peak. Sure maybe they shouldnt have but not all Australians are investing masters. They just wanted a roof over there head and timing was against them. There will be losers over the next year or so but there will also be winners.Try and be the later.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    devo76 wrote:
    I think most people agree that the growth many have enjoyed will not continue. Now its about building buffers ,sitting tight and if you are in the position to buy and want to. Then bargain hard.Many points argued at the moment are neither here nor there. Yes things will slow or go backwards. But if you are prepared then who cares. its about Long term people. Yes i genuinely feel for people who borrowed heavily at the peak. Sure maybe they shouldnt have but not all Australians are investing masters. They just wanted a roof over there head and timing was against them. There will be losers over the next year or so but there will also be winners.Try and be the later.

    No disputing your points here… long term (15 yrs or more) always pays off with property, of this I think most of us have no doubt.

    The question's are; How big is the bubble? How low will the crash dip? When will be the right time to buy again?

    Obviously, all of these things are connected and one will influence the other. Personally, I do not think stability can be reached again until property is in the range of 4 times the average (single income) wage. Socially, more than financially, the people of this country need that balance.

    Profile photo of Peak OilPeak Oil
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    Our world is on the precipice of unparalleled disaster.  This post is devoted to those that are aware of and wish to mitigate the confluence of forces that are soon to utterly shatter  our way of life, and our very planet. 

    Our civilization is the inheritor of forces that began at the dawn of history.  With the harnessing of fire came a realization of the power of the Sun.  The first Sun Cults awakened.
     The power of fire, combined with the added understanding of metallurgy, enabled a few, supported by superior weapons, to rule over many.  The hierarchal model of civilization began, rule over the multitudes by the few became facilitated thru use of institutions and harnessing the current superstitions of man. 

    Laws and courts were instituted as a means of justice, further instituting control of the populace.  Currencies were introduced, as a means to assure that surplus wealth was acquired via trade with the specie of the realm.  Religions were shaped, and managed, as a profitable means to build the desired stable society, yet those that controlled these religions were still cognizant of the power of the Sun. This thought form, or method of organization to maximize the utilization of available resources spread, and led to the early city-state models, such as Sumeria, Assyria, Babylon, and the Medo-Persians. 

    These civilizations, all built on the model of the Sun Cultists reached pinnacles, then succumbed to local resource depletion and empirical overshoot.  But out of the ashes, rose Greece, then Rome, along with the attendant evolved understandings of civil institutions.  Government morphed to a senatorial model, religion evolved from overt Sun worship to a polytheistic model, then the monotheistic model. But those that follow the Sun were still there, just rendered into the background, now far less visible, shaping society in the shadows, morphing the newly created institutions into enhanced control mechanisms for the multitudes.  

    Our current civilization is but the heir of this mostly hidden history, nothing but a further refinement of the visions of the early Sun Cultists.  But they created a monster, the institutions originally created to shape society, and tightly held, have now acquired
    entropy, a life of their own.  Everything has been rent asunder.  Money, once a store of value is now merely a marker of debt.  Religion is often a vehicle of hate.  Our courts do not dispense justice.  Our media does not inform.  Our leaders do not lead. The entire fabric of our civilization is based on growth, yet resource depletion assures that there will be no more growth; assures that the amount of available resources decreases. 

    Oil, the primary vehicle of energy, the substance that our entire world relies on, is now sufficiently depleted that no further substantial increases in production rate can happen.  The geologic reality is that this planet will never produce more than some 84 million barrels per day.  Ever.  This alone dooms this civilization, but when considered in the light of other key resource depletion, such as metals, food, and water, then the situation becomes even more dire.  Couple this with the rapidly explosion of our population and climate change and our situation becomes nigh incomprehensible. 

    This global depletion is a situation unique to human history.  There is no precedent, nothing history can teach us.  What history does teach us about regional depletion is ugly.  It ends the civilization.  This time its global. This civilization will collapse.  It will die.  We are watching the first signs now, watching the terminal disease progress all the way to final death. 

    Our institutions, having now acquired a life of their own, will continue to erode.  Resource wars are inevitable. Poetic justice and prophesy hints that this monster created on the Assyrian plains, and refined into near perfection in the empire of the Medo-Persians will turn full circle, and consume them, as well as the entire system created by the progenitors of the Sun, with the fire of the Sun. Reason tells us this scenario isn’t completely implausible, but, whatever our actual future, it is certain that all is not well.   

    By now you can infer what I am and where I am coming from. I offer an unique viewpoint on today’s events.  Love me or hate me; hang on every word or snort coffee thru your nose, you will find many of my thoughts hard to dismiss.
     Take a look, read, question.  Knowledge is power.  I hope you can gain understanding sufficient to aid your surviving the coming conflagration.

    Profile photo of crashycrashy
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    irrelevant, condescending, conceited, pessimism without a clue.

    "I went to Uni and all I got with this stupid t-shirt"

    If you want to impress people with big words at least spell them right and use them in their correct context.

    reminds me of the bar scene in GOOD WILL HUNTING.

    but you probably just copied & pasted the whole thing right?

    Profile photo of ErikHErikH
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    Ormeau – I'm with crashy, your post is out of place and actually pretty low on facts and sound reasoning. One of the biggest empires of all times, the Roman Empire, did not fall apart due to depletion of local resources, but their decline was much more related to a decline in morals and increasing greed and corruption. I found "Empire of Debt" an interesting read in that it made the prediction a few years ago that the US was an Empire like the Roman Empire but that it's fiscal model was fundamentally flawed (Empire of Debt) and hence would self destruct and that it would al start with a collapse in housing. The authors also explored the similarities between the Roman Empire and the US in terms of the decline of morals. Interesting even though the book was 2-3 times as long as it needed to be…

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    I'm no believer in ultimate Doom & Gloom, but some good point's have been raised above and it's interesting to see that the mood of the discussion is heating up so much! If as bulls we are getting too upset with posts from the bears, maybe we haven't got our backsides covered just in case the bears are right, i.e. maybe we're not setup to ride out the rough patch?

    I say thanks to all you D&G'ers as you've helped me to look more critically at my own position and make sure I can ride out a rouuh patch – and now that I'm sure I can I see the near term as a great opportunity! But I'm going to take my time to find the next bargain.

    By the way, just looked up UK house prices for an analogy — in 1989 UK house prices peaked at GBP 117k and then dropped to GBP 77k around 1992/3 (35% drop). It took until 2001/2 for house prices to get back to the 1989 mark (that is 12 yrs) but then they grew by some 60% in the next 5-6 yrs to GBP 191k and now they're in decline again. That was a pretty long and nasty decline, but again if held on for the long term you would have been ok (depending on your financing etc.)

    These are real prices, i.e. adjusted for inflation. The data is from Nationwide (http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical.htm)

    At the same time as the housing price peaked in around 89/90 interest rates also peaked around 15% and then stayed lowish (6%) for many, many years. Interestingly the UK market suffered from similar ups and downs between 75-77 and 80-82 with corresponding interest rates moveemnts but these cycles were short and not deep.

    I don't believe that AU is in the same place as the UK was in '89 and I beleiev that of most western nations AU is well placed to ride out the coming rough patch, but I will read up on my history… as they say, history repeats itself so if only we could learn from it!

     

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    I think someone was not loved enough as a child. Or dropped on there head at a early age.If you believe that vomit why on earth are on this web site. Go hug a tree. Kiss a fish, bid farewell to loved ones. Seems to me you are wasting your last precious moments on this earth.

    Just some thoughts.
     As each superpower died in the past a new one was born right?. Australias turn at the top people YEAH YEAH.We have our own resources that the world want and need.Large areas of stable land,large gas deposites etc etc. We are looking quite good

    Another thought.
    From the power of the sun. Fire was discovered
    From fire we found use of metals.
    From this we harneseed the power of oil.
    So it appears to me that our next power source will be found using all three. Seems logical. Why would this process suddenly change.

    Chill out dude. Have a beer. relaxe,breath and live your life dont fear it.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    ErikH wrote:
    Ormeau – I'm with crashy, your post is out of place and actually pretty low on facts and sound reasoning. One of the biggest empires of all times, the Roman Empire, did not fall apart due to depletion of local resources, but their decline was much more related to a decline in morals and increasing greed and corruption. I found "Empire of Debt" an interesting read in that it made the prediction a few years ago that the US was an Empire like the Roman Empire but that it's fiscal model was fundamentally flawed (Empire of Debt) and hence would self destruct and that it would al start with a collapse in housing. The authors also explored the similarities between the Roman Empire and the US in terms of the decline of morals. Interesting even though the book was 2-3 times as long as it needed to be…

    ErikH, I agree with your thoughts on Ormeau – this topic is too specific for his comments. I also agree with comparrison of modern US and Rome before it fell. And I wonder, is Australia a smaller version of that, or atleast connected enough to the US to fall a little with it?

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    It seems the growth of countries or cultures in the past and present are similar to most living things.Take a tree in a forest for example. They start small and struggle for survival stuck in the dark under their neighbours. Then as one of the mighty trees above fall. They are given a chance to grow. Eventually with a little luck they flourish and become large and powerful. But all things must come to a end and the tree grows old and dies allowing the next to begin its ascent. This can be said for many cultures in the past. I still believe the US to have many years at the top yet. Australia i believe has more positives out of this scenario than negatives. We are still a young nation with solid morals and we suffer little of what many other nations are struggling with. WAR,FAMINE,DESEASE,UNREST,NATURAL DISASTERSLACK OF LAND. We are geographically in a stable area with plenty of land to move.Our people are generally kind and happy. I believe  Australias prime years are still ahead of it.

    This may sound a bit wet but im sure you get the point.

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    following on the off topic route……..

    Australia owns a big chunk of the worlds uranium, and our main energy source is likely to be nuclear in the near future as solar is way off.

    Will Australia in 100 yrs be like Saudi Arabia is now?

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