hey guys, im new to this forum. Just wondering if anybody (in Melbourne) knows of any suburbs that are likely to experience solid growth? I’ve been keeping an eye on Box Hill, Ashwood and Burwood as they are in and around already established areas, are close to the city, shops, transport etc. but are yet really boom. I was generally looking for houses in the $200k (or lower) mark. Any advice would be much appreciated! Thanks heaps
i don’t think you will find a house for around teh $200k mark in those areas.
maybe if you’re looking for a 1 BR apartment you might be able to get something for that budget.
are you looking for capital growth, rental return, renovation job??
Hi,
I’m afraid you’ve definately missed the boat in those particular areas. You may be able to get a one bedroon apartment in Box Hill for around the $200 mark, but it’s unlikely.
I think you’ll find that you have to look furhter afield, maybe Frankston, Narre Warren, or Cranbourne would be a start.
Good luck.
LandtOriginally posted by mt87:hey guys, im new to this forum. Just wondering if anybody (in Melbourne) knows of any suburbs that are likely to experience solid growth? I’ve been keeping an eye on Box Hill, Ashwood and Burwood as they are in and around already established areas, are close to the city, shops, transport etc. but are yet really boom. I was generally looking for houses in the $200k (or lower) mark. Any advice would be much appreciated! Thanks heaps
The best way to find areas likley to experience solid growth is to look at the past growth history of a suburb.
I particularly like Ashwood that you mention. It has always performed well. It came 24th out of all suburbs and regions in Victoria in growth over the last 10 years.
It is now going through transition as the old properties are past their “use by date” and many are being pulled down and new townhouses are taking their place.
We have bought 14 properties for clients in Ashwood over the last 2 years and we will be contributing to that growth.
The problem is you can’t get anything for $200K in any of the areas you mentioned.
Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
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FREE subscription http://www.propertyupdate.com.auwow, thanks a lot for your responses guys. yep, i understand that houses in those areas are difficult to come by at $200k, but there are a few apartments in box hill for that much, and i also found a house in a great location, sub-divided block though, for just over $200k (on realestate.com.au).
NATS12, i was looking to renovate, but not make a quick buck, rather hang on to it for a while… use the equity in it to expand. but yeah, i was looking to renovate in the first 6 months (whilst pretending to live there), and hopefully the increased rent would offset renovation costs in about a year, whilst also adding to the value of the house.
MichaelYardney: do you mean then to purchase in areas that have already experienced growth, or purchase in areas that are yet to grow? (i understand it to mean the former). is there any chance i could look at the list that has the best suburb growth over the last 10 years?
Thanks a lot for your help guys, much appreciated!
Originally posted by mt87:wow, thanks a lot for your responses guys.
MichaelYardney: do you mean then to purchase in areas that have already experienced growth, or purchase in areas that are yet to grow? (i understand it to mean the former). is there any chance i could look at the list that has the best suburb growth over the last 10 years?If you are lookingt o buy capital growth properties, and that is what I advocate, then firstly select the right suburbs in which to invest.
Look for properties will long histories of stong capital growth – not just the latest “fad.”
Then in those suburbs choose the right type of property.
When doing your research on these suburbs, check out where it is in its own property cycle. IF it is peaking then maybe you should put off your buying decision.
You will do better by timing your investment purchases well and buying counter cyclically.
Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
Join over 10,000 readers each month.
FREE subscription http://www.propertyupdate.com.auMichael, I realise the counter-cyclical buy theory but would like your advice on selling in a down market. I am wanting to sell a new townhouse in a really good suburb in Mar but could hold onto it for another year at a pinch. Do you believe the market in Melb will drop further, or hold steady and patchy for a few years.
Fern
Originally posted by fernfurn:Michael, I realise the counter-cyclical buy theory but would like your advice on selling in a down market. I am wanting to sell a new townhouse in a really good suburb in Mar but could hold onto it for another year at a pinch. Do you believe the market in Melb will drop further, or hold steady and patchy for a few years.
Fern
Fern
If you recognise the “countercyclical buy theory” do you realise that most of the investors who did well out of the last boom did so because they bought early in the property cycle and got set before the boom.
Many of those who bought near the top of the boom are quetsioning their invetsment decisions.
The exact opposite of buying well when the market is in a slump, is selling a good property in this market and regretting the decison a few years later, because it is likley the person who ownes the property will make lots of money out of it as it doubles in value in the next 7 to 10 years.
What will happen in the next 12 months?
The market is very patchy. It is segmented and not all proeprties will fair well.
Where is your property?
Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
Join over 10,000 readers each month.
FREE subscription http://www.propertyupdate.com.auWouldn’t it b interesting if we made a list of all the areas that HAVE NOT boomed over the last 5 – 10 years and then studied them.
Maybe we could have a master class of regurlar posties to comment on each area close to them from the selected list and then predict the next boom suburb based on research and collected stastics.
Who’s interested?????
resiwealth
keen to look at a QLD list if there are any QLD investors interested.
cheers
Jeff Aquilina
Need a holiday? http://www.coralsearesort.com email me [email protected] 20% DISCOUNT for PropertyInvesting.com members
some thing about resiwealths idea appeals to me im up for it
cheerz[blink]Hi Michael,
You wrote, “When doing your research on these suburbs, check out where it is in its own property cycle. IF it is peaking then maybe you should put off your buying decision.
You will do better by timing your investment purchases well and buying counter cyclically.”
By this theory, do you suggest that we should not be buying in a rising market like WA, NT and some parts of FNQ? Rather, try to find undervalued property in the current slump in Vic/NSW?
But my rationale is that weren’t these “undervalued” properties expensive once before? I mean its all relative. Say market in that suburb for similar home moved to median of $350K and you can find one for $325K which means you have bought well. If you bought during the boom while prices are still going up as in WA or NT, you could pick it up for $300K before it settles at the peak for $350K. Does that make sense?
But I suppose you never know when it will settle in at its peak of $350K. However from all reports, WA and NT seems to be the pick at the moment and if you believe theres still a couple more years of flat to negative growth in major eastern capital city locs (with some exeptions off course), why wouldn’t you look at WA or NT in the immediate term only to move the funds over East when the party’s over?
Interested to hear your views.
asdf
What I was suggesting in this post was that not only is there a proeprty cycle for each major market (eg Melb, Sydney Brisbane etc) but within those markets, there are sub cycles – suburbs go through cycles
I look for suburbs in transition, those that are improving through genrification.
Of course it makes sense to buy at the bottom of the cycle and sell or refinace at the top, but this is only thoretical and not really possible.
So do you still buy in Perth and NT which are still booming?
Or do you buy in Melbouurne Sydney Brisbane etc that are in the slump stage?I will answer with some comments:-
1. I know that many investors who did well in the last property boom did so by purchasing properties early in the boom when others thopught they were “crazy”
2. I know many investors who bought in the last few years of the last property boom who regret their investment decision.
3. You can buy at any time in the cycle if you buy below market price and add value, creating your own capitla growth
Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
Join over 10,000 readers each month.
FREE subscription http://www.PropertyUpdate.com.auMichael Yarney Yes I do realise the buying cycle as well and “know thyself” I’m not a buy & hold forever person, I like the action of developing. Having said that I would be prepared to hold for 12mths, but if there is no movement in the market my costs would negate any minor gains
With the buy well cycle though if I sell now I can also buy well, value add and still catch any upward movement in prices. The suburb is Strathmore. Any thoughts on movement in this suburbFern
Hi Mt87,
Why don’t you have a look down at the Mornington Peninsula. With the baby boomers set to retire over the next few years, there should be a sharp increase in demand with many retiring to the relaxing lifestyle down there. This won’t necessarily mean a boom, but there are pretty good conditons for growth in my opinion. Personally, I’ve bought in Somerville where there are plans for a major shopping centre. Hastings is another good spot.
Regards,
Cameron Perry
Finance Consultant
F.R. Perry & Associates
Level 13, 30 Collins St
Melbourne VIC 3000
Ph (03) 9662 1999
Fax (03) 9662 2044Originally posted by fernfurn:Michael Yarney Yes I do realise the buying cycle as well and “know thyself” I’m not a buy & hold forever person, I like the action of developing. Having said that I would be prepared to hold for 12mths, but if there is no movement in the market my costs would negate any minor gains
With the buy well cycle though if I sell now I can also buy well, value add and still catch any upward movement in prices. The suburb is Strathmore. Any thoughts on movement in this suburbFern
I feel it would be difficult to find opportunities in Melbourne where you can buy, renovate and sell for a profit in 12 months. The stamp duty will kill you.
Property is not a short term investment. A 12 month property play is speculation.
Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
Join over 10,000 readers each month.
FREE subscription http://www.PropertyUpdate.com.auHi Michael, thanks for your reply. Appreciate your comments seeing you’re probably one of the very few in this forum who has seen AND been involved in a few cycles in Oz. I gather buying pre-cycle boom and buy under market value is a strategy which you employ. And something which you can add value. Easier said than donw I’m afraid in this environment. Nevertheless, thanks for your comments.
Great thread.
Thanks for the imput into this thread michael. I enjoyed reading everyones questions and comments.
cheers
D&L Property Projects Ltd
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Originally posted by asdf:Hi Michael, thanks for your reply. Appreciate your comments seeing you’re probably one of the very few in this forum who has seen AND been involved in a few cycles in Oz. I gather buying pre-cycle boom and buy under market value is a strategy which you employ. And something which you can add value. Easier said than donw I’m afraid in this environment. Nevertheless, thanks for your comments.
Thanks for the kind words, but I disagree that its hard to buy below market value today.
There are lots of motivated vendors.
Properties to which you can add value – it could be minor renovations even a coat of paint.
If you say you can’t find them you won’t.
If you say you can find them – you will!
Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
Join over 10,000 readers each month.
FREE subscription http://www.PropertyUpdate.com.auIf you say you can’t find them you won’t.If you say you can find them – you will!
Exactly!
D&L Property Projects Ltd
Sourcing Investments that fit.
[email protected]
Email to receive current deals &
New Zealand Information Sheet
http://www.nzproperty.orgDon Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
Email Me | Phone Me"I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller
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