Hi Guys
just like to ask people if they are seeing a slow down in NZ ?
I recently sent out a newsletter to our clients telling them that this would happen (actually we’ve been saying it for ages).
What are you seeing ?
i was talking to an agent in Marton and he said sales demand is back to the pre Aussie invasion levels on before 2003. This mean properties are selling, but slowly. He expects some homes to be on th market for 6-8 months. The number of listings has increased dramatically.
regards westan
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The New Zealand market is bound to slow down. However there are still goodd deals available in the major cities if you look around. The returns there generally are still much better than Australia.
Nigel Kibel
http://www.propertyknowhow.com.au
Australian and New Zealand The United States Property Researcher and education
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No Doubt about it Nigel
but don’t expect to be making capital gains soon.
regards westan
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Like Nigel said
theres deals about in fact we see them everywhere and this is definitely the time to be spying for them as there seems to be less buyers now, which is good for us. add values and cash flow though as waitin for capital appreciation could be lengthynot according to the reserve bank governor westan! He wishes it WOULD slow. Then maybe he could stop raising rates.
Either rates are rising cause the market’s to hot or the market is dead and noone wants houses.
The way I see it you can’t argue both ways.
Cheers
Cheers
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Perhaps Western you could give us some fantastic capital growth figures for properties you have recommended in Buffalo
Nigel Kibel
http://www.propertyknowhow.com.au
Australian and New Zealand The United States Property Researcher and education
One Day property investment research workshop just $290 Melb 26 November Buying in the United States and New ZealandNigel Kibel | Property Know How
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Hi Nigel,
Youve been talking to Westan for a while now so why ask a stupid question? At no time has he touted Buffalo as being a place to invest in for capital growth so why ask the question?He has said you will receive positive cash flow providing you buy correctly. I have purchased through Westan in Buffalo and Texas I realise that there probably wont be that much capital growth in Buffalo but it provides positive cash flow and hopefully it will help me to purchase other properties. Each to their own game plan.There are 3 types of people:1. People who make things happen.
2. People who watch what happens.
3. People who wondered what happened.Hi Guys
what happened to this topic ??
i think i’ll start it again
regards westan
Properties in the USA 15-25% returns- email to join our database [email protected]
Hi Guys
i tried to avoid Nigels continuing little snipes but decided that his comment need to be dealt with because he gives the impression that i’m saying thing i’m not, so i need to defend myself. My apologies to all that the forum sinks to this level.
Once again your comments which are aimed to destroy my credibility, why you try to do this is confusing.Nigel give me evidence that i’ve ever claimed Buffalo has had strong capital growth. You can’t because i haven’t said that.
In fact the 250 or so people that attended our “intro to the USA nights” in Australia back in April will give evidence that we portrayed Buffalo the way it is. Warts and all. We weren’t presenting the City in any glorified way and many have said to me that the city is way better than they were expecting.
At that night i also mentioned to everyone about the fantastic oportunities in San Antonio Texas. But i didn’t hype it up. Thats not my style. i call things the way i see it. I might be wrong sometimes and when i am i’ll say i was wrong. but don’t imply that i say things i don’t.
Thankyou brisbane 04 for your support in putting the record straight.
Can i ask why do you turn a thread that was about NZ into an attack on me ? You’ve been running doing this for quite a while. Your behaviour is a bit disturbing.regards westan
Properties in the USA 15-25% returns- email to join our database [email protected]
Nigel I reckon your time would be better spent spell checking your web site rather than denigrating others.
Hi Don and Liz,
You’re right in saying that my tune regarding Buffalo might change and I realise that but nothing in life is risk free. I took a chance investing in realestate 12 years ago when people were telling me not to. I invested later on in a different state which was a risk. I was looking at NZ there at one stage a few years ago but never acted on it (much to my regret now).It is a risk I’m taking and hopefully it will pay off (no guarantees)I’m happy with the research I have done I’ve visited the city,I’ve met all of the people I will be dealing with and are happy with same.So who knows it may work out it may not but I’m not going to die wondering. The biggest risk of all for me is to do nothing.Happy investing to all and too all follow your own path. [biggrin]MartinThere are 3 types of people:1. People who make things happen.
2. People who watch what happens.
3. People who wondered what happened.Sometimes it seems like Buffalo is a new state in NZ on this forum. Perhaps a new US forum needs to be created.
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Hi Guys
I thought this was a forum for New Zealand content.
Come on Moderators, either create a new forum for USA content and there is comment in other forums on the USA or tidy up some of the rubbish/personal attacks being made in this forum in particular please.
On second thoughts, shut down the NZ forum and start an USA forum as it appears most Australian investors have now switched to investing in the USA.
Regards
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You seem to take personal offence becuase I ask a question. I would like to see just how much positive cashflow you recieve when the dust settles. However my point is sure the market is slowling in New Zealand. If you purchased to hold medium to long term then the returns in New Zealand are still good and if you buy in the main cities they will now lend up to 90% on houses to foreign investors. Unless your getting massive returns I do not see the point in buying property with no growth. I have just gotten back from Texas. There are great places there to invest. But even there the numbers work better on larger purchases than single houses. Not everyone is buying properties to quickly turn over. In New Zealand I stick to main cities because they are more likely to have capital growth over a period of time rather than country areas. I do not mean to knock Buffalo or Western for that matter, but I also have the right to question. Western regularly posts comments here as to why you should not buy in New Zealand now. I do not believe in having a black and White view.
Nigel Kibel
http://www.propertyknowhow.com.au
Australian and New Zealand The United States Property Researcher and education
One Day property investment research workshop just $290 Melb 26 November Buying in the United States and New ZealandNigel Kibel | Property Know How
http://propertyknowhow.com.au
Email Me | Phone MeWe have just launched a new website join our membership today
Good on you Martin that is the spirit, I agree better to act than die wondering. Hope you have great success from taking the oppertunites and doing something, I have bought propertys in the past that have turned out to be duds but if I didn’t do anything ever time I thought about the risk, I would not be in the position I am in today.
Cheers Rick
Monopoly, my favourite game
If the market in NZ is slowing and you buy propertys in good locations that are running nuetral or slightly ethier way , surely there is going to be capital growth in the future.
Melbourne property is slowing down and pulling back , BUT if you look at strong areas e.g. Essendon, Brighten , Toorak, and other good areas they are still strong markets and are showing no sign of dropping in value. This leads me to belive that good property is always going to do well no matter what. If I was putting my money into NZ I would not be buying in one horse towns , but I would certainly buy in good areas.
Just my 2 bob
Monopoly, my favourite game
Hi guys
Rickky
the problem with the arguement that if you buy at the top of the market and wait as you are recommending has been covered on another thread that you contributed to. I’ll quickly recap.
This is why i don’t like negative gearing in a soft market.1. you have years of money out of pocket to cover costs.
2. You can’t write off losses agains Aussie income
3. How could you have used that money over the 5 years or so that its now going up. For instance if you buy in agrowth market who knows it could double in 5 years.
4. You need 4% growth even to keep up with inflation
5. The Governor of the NZ reserve bank says the dollar is set for a fall. (so you loose on the foreign exchange)
6. What if the market drops, as it sometimes does, NZ has been following the OZ market, whats happening around you ?
7. How much growth to you need before you are at a profit ? Maybe 8-10 years before you are at break even.
8. Use your money now elsewhere (even fixed interest ?) and invest in NZ before the next cycle begins.Does this make sense ? Is it possible that i could be right ? Try to attack my arguement not me,
On a another point , Nigel one you’ve changed your question to me, i am sorry i can’t play your ganes with you anymore. want to talk investing and R/E then i am glad to. I know you guys get upset when i say negative things about NZ. I’m sorry but i was one of the biggest promoters of NZ 2 years ago. Many people belived what i said then and bought in NZ. The market isn’t the same now. I have sold/selling out of NZ. I’m only saying what i’m doing with my own money. I might be wrong NZ might double again (anything is possible) but even you guys who are telling others to buy in nz agree that prices are generally not going up. Can i ask you Nigel are you buying in NZ for yourself and if so tell us one of your deals recently ?
regards westan
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Hi Westan
I am sure that the market in Tokoroa is slowing.
The number of properties for sale in the 0-100k bracket is about 30 more now than it was 8 months ago, but still not at the number there were back in 2003.
All properties have gone up in price and those selling now have made good capital gain.
A number of Aucklanders seem to be in the market.
One property a block of 3, 2b/m units is on the market here for $270k.
This block was bought by one of the mods last year for $61k. Onsold it about 3 mths later for around $80k. This person onsold it again about 3 mths later for about $107k and he sold it about 3 mths ago for $120k.
It is this owner who has listed it at $270k. All the owners have been Australian.
All three units have been redecorated during the last 18mths but the units are still only worth about 40-50k each.Regards
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Hi there
I am still very active in the NZ market, recently I bought a property for 85 valued at 110, CF+ve and 1.5 hours from Auckland. I have on the table an excellent renovate CUTE property 3 hours from Auckland for 56k and I know the renovators and how good they are, it is a 12.5 return which is brilliant for something which needs nothing done and is a great rental hold. Interest rates at 7.8 fixed for five years, not too bad.
Recently I signed up three deals in Invercargill, all 11 percents on contract price which I believe is 1 percent or more better than others can find right now, but wait there’s more, the property was under 100k and it valued up at 24k more than the purchase price. All these deals are in the last month.
I am still buying myself, and like mad. Who needs to wait for the market to rise if you can either buy value, or add value? A lot of our deals for example in Christchurch, you buy something for 130k, spend 5-10k on it before settlement (access clause) then settle, get the val, wahey it’s now worth 155k but you only spent 140k, and there’s your extra equity to go again?
or else what you can do is add value by buying, and subdividing or strata-titling and then re-selling the ‘pieces’. NZ is still so cheap, and there is no stamp duty so it is a fantastic place to do this sort of thing, sure you could do the same in Aus but you would have stamp duty in and out, higher prices, and lower yields.
Sure you could also invest in the US, but I have many reasons not to do that both personal, ethical, logical, and practical, and I don’t want to go into it here because a) this is a NZ section and b) westan is a good and trusted friend, if I was buying in the US I would do it through him just as people buying in NZ would do it through me.
I am a firm believer in knowing your market and thus being able to spot great deals all the time.
I have spent years now getting to know the NZ market and having trusted people in place all over the country, and I can still see opportunities everywhere. I welcome the ‘fire sales’ from spooked investors, I welcome the lazy landlords who didn’t manage their investments/renovations/rental managers/ insurance or whatever, we are very good at solving problems. i think my training was to buy the very worst shiznitboxes in NZ in the very worst streets in the very worst towns, and make them profitable, and work out!
So with clients i would never find anything like that for them, but where I was going with that is ‘if I can make my first three deals work, then we can help our clients make their deals work because they are much better properties/streets/condition than the ones I bought and I made them work – and all from a distance!’
Also I love the fact that the more you buy the more you can buy, it’s just magic, and of course the more income streams you have, the less it matters if one is vacant. if you see what i mean.
So i just want to keep on buying, I can’t imagine stopping!cheers-
MiniHi Guys,
Westan – i take the point about your reasons for leaving the NZ market. That is a strategy that you have chosen and many are taking your advice and investing with you.
I wanted to make the point that when you change your focus everything changes. The way you see the market changes.
I guess what I am saying is that if you stop looking for opportunities then you stop finding them. It does not mean that they are not there.
I have a personal opinion that real estate is something you need to be active with rather than just buy and forget. Maybe this does not mean you are on the paint and brushes yourself or organising a sub division yourself or even managing the building of a home yourself. But, someone has to put the time in.
Sadly, we are finding that some of the vendors are Australians who perhaps had the wrong idea about investing in property. IE, that it is an activity done on paper and spread sheets. This is where you start but in the end it is about people and how you communicate with them.
If these people did not learn this valuable lesson by what you could perhaps call a “failed” investing experience in New Zealand then I don’t think they will fair any better if they take their capital and invest it anywhere let alone in the USA.
You asked Nigel if he was buying? Not sure what he is doing but just to let you know I am buying and have just brought another for myself in Invercargill.
My gut tells me that over time some of the investor who follow you to the US will do well but I don’t think the solutions lies in low end (price) rentals. Perhaps some of the larger deals that you are putting together will turn out to be winners.
It just seems (i am the first to admit that most of the information I have on the usa is from reading this forum) the gross yields do not translate into anything near the type of net yield you need to make the risk worth the rewards. This is just my personal opinion.
To address another part of your arguement if investors wish to cash out of NZ property and they have invested in a trust structure then surely they would be better of the place the capital (hopefully they did well) into fixed interest or term investments in NZ within the structure. In this way there would be no tax issue for them to consider.
The trust would then tick away earning interest until better opportunities came along.
In this way the investor is not exposed to exchange rate risk ans still has an alternative source of income that if structured correctly will remain in nz.
I hate to do it but paraphrasing Robert Kiyosaki if you are not an insider you are an outsider. I think he said something like that in one of those tape sets that I borrowed from the net.
What I got out of that comment was that the further removed you are from the deal the harder it is to achieve your desired outcomes. So hear we are in Invercargill not more than 5 minutes away from property deals.
In point form I just wanted to add a few extra things that are in no way personal comments they are comments about the argument
1) It is not fair to compare regional markets to city
2) It is probably negligent to suggest that you could compare investing in the USA with investing in NZ purely based on yield.
3) None of us should make any sort of prediction about capital growth when “finding” properties for others. There should be a law against it.
4) When you change your perspective everything you see is different.
5) I truely and whole heartedly believe that investing is a long term activity. Having said that every investor should have an exit strategy and we must make the most effecient use of capital
6) Every investment has an exit cost whether it be finance or legal.
7) Every Investment has an entry cost. What I am learning from this forum is that the entry cost to investing in the usa is very very high.
Some investors for some deals need to purchase USA real estate deals with cash. Surely this is not an efficient use of gearing and capital9) One flight to the usa would eat the first year or first two years profit.
10) There is an exchange rate risk investing in the US also. Some would say it is a higher risk than nzd v’s aud historically.
11) The US legal system is far removed from that of NZ or Australia. The structures are differnent and much more expensive to set up. They would take the next two years cashflow so after set up and one flight 4 years cashflow is gone. Then a finders fee on top makes 5 years before investors see any cash at all. Surely this is not acceptable return on equity.
12) Property taxes in the US and NZ do not compare.
As you can see it is not and should never be an either or decision. Surely the investments you have encouraged your investors to buy over the last 1 or 2 years are sound enough that they need not sell them now and buy US property with the capital released.
What about the investors who have purchased properties in the last 9 months or 6 months. Are their investments sound on a macro level or should they also sell.
The thing is that basically not everyone has the same strategy so they need to act differntly to achieve their goals. There is no one fit solution and no one area, town, or country that offers the best fit for the investor.
My opinion is that the investors who accumulates quality investments over time will be the ones that accumulate serious wealth. These will be the deca millionaires who have the sort of wealth that can create employment and effect lives.
It is a shame that one of the forum members can’t put together a fund or syndicate to invest in some of these areas. Perhaps this would help with some of the management and vacany issues that some the the other forum members have complained of.
We should be pooling our resources for these high risk US investment rather than going it alone.
cheers
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Property Spotters living in NZ .
We are active in this market and buy Properties directly from the public. Maybe you want to sell?
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