Forums / Property Investing / Overseas Deals / is demand slowing in NZ ?

Viewing 15 posts - 21 through 35 (of 35 total)
  • Profile photo of RikkyRikky
    Member
    @rikky
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 313

    Westan

    I didn’t say buy top end of the market, I said buy in good areas.
    A good investor that does his/her home work can still buy good property in good areas at below market value.

    POINT 1
    I said buy property that is running neutral or slightly either way, not property that gives you out of pocket expenses for years.I have never and will never buy property that costs me money continuely for years on end and certainly would not give anyone that advice.
    POINT 2
    I wouln’t buy property that costs me so I would not need to ride it of againt aussie income.
    POINT 3
    Growth markets , you know what I think is going to be a growth market . However good property in good areas will always be good investments.Sure there are always going to be good growth areas and areas that don’t go up for years but unless you have a crystal ball nobody really knows what is going to happen in the market. This is the reason I will never invest in 1 horse towns or areas I think are in bad economic state. This does not mean you can’t make money in these areas I know to well that you can I personally have seen huge oppertunitys in little country towns however it goes against my investing model and I would prefer not to take these risks. High risk high returns or could also mean high loses.
    POINT 4
    Good property in good areas has always out run inflation over long periods of time .
    POINT 5
    The dollar is set to fall , once again were is the crystal ball. When investing over seas this is always a risk but it could also be a good reward.
    POINT 6
    What if the market doesn’t drop . Look markets are always moving , if you buy good propertys in good areas you will never have to worry about this to much so long as it is a long term investment.For people that are after the quick buck this may not be a good investment but for people that want good investments you can’t go wrong (prodominantly)
    POINT 7
    8 to 10 years before you break even. What does that mean? Do you have a crstal ball?
    POINT 8
    Use your money elsewere. Well there is always a better investment . Would I invest in NZ not at the moment but if I was I would only invest in good property in good areas at this time in the cycle, not that I have a crstal ball.

    Westan why do you think I am attacking you?
    I am just pointing out my style of investing.
    You know that I don’t like property that is not what I call a solid investment.
    This is just my thoughts and my style of investing.
    I have never and will never chase the quick buck, I look for good stong investments and will always do so.
    I know a little about how you started out and completely understand why you invest the way you do and it has been very succesful for you.
    I’m not saying your or my way are right or wrong just different and with different styles comes different rules to be successful.

    Kind regards Rick[drummer]

    Monopoly, my favourite game

    Profile photo of RikkyRikky
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    @rikky
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 313

    Don an Liz,

    Good post , I agree with what you are saying oppertunitys are always out there if you are looking for them.

    Monopoly, my favourite game

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    @westan
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 1,950

    hi guys i need to read everyone emails later

    just a had a quick look at yours Rikky

    sorry i didn’t mean to say you were attacking me. Sorry its another poster who does this, You have been able to behave with dignity.

    I got started on my second point when i wrote that, but i know it appears like i was talking to you. Not intended. Sorry if i’ve portrayed you as someone who attacks the man not the arguement.

    Re – NZ at the end of the day – you wouldn’t invest in NZ, Neither would i for all the reasons i mentioned. i don’t have a crystal ball, but i also know prices don’t move up forever. Look everyone knows there are still deals in all markets i’m talking generally. i know Mini is still finding deals but she knows what she is doing, and is akiwi originally and has been active in the market for years.
    regards westan

    Bye for a while, i’m moving back to Australia
    Buy in the USA [email protected]

    Profile photo of RikkyRikky
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    @rikky
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 313

    Ok thats good to know

    Monopoly, my favourite game

    Profile photo of westanwestan
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    @westan
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 1,950

    Hi Again

    shouldn’t be reading this forum (my furniutre goes in 2 days and its 12.20 at night)!

    Ok Don
    great reply, this is what the forum should be about, people putting forward their well ythought oout opinions. (so are your Rikky and Mini i just don’t have time to respond now)

    Firstly i really don’t mean to be warning people about NZ so they sell and reinvest in the USA through us. Although i wouldn’t advise against it and i’d suggest Texas, where i started investing in the USA. I know it appeal that because i have business sourcing properties i may look like i am promoting myself through posts, i really try to avoid that. I rarely start a thread about the USA. Maybe never !
    I try to do what i have always done on the forum and called markets like i see them. and in the process assist others.

    I know it may appear like i am slamming NZ, but really i’m the only one who says anything negative about NZ (although castledreamer an experienced NZ investor and NZ resident backed me up), but this is to give the forum balance. Often poeple in Oz don’t know whats really happeningover here so i’m giving my opinion.
    I am not saying people should be deserting NZ at all costs, but make up their mind, are you in or out. Because i beleive the market is turning, while there are still buyers if your not in for the long haul (like you are) then now may be the best time to get out.
    I was telling people to sell out of Oz back in 2003 and i know more than one person who thought they were a long term investors and then discovered how he could use the cash better and now can’t sell his home (in Austrlia) its been on the market for 12 months and they have dropped the price but still can’t sell. its possible NZ will turn that way ???

    regards westan

    Bye for a while, i’m moving back to Australia
    Buy in the USA [email protected]

    Profile photo of wilandelwilandel
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    @wilandel
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 761

    WESTAN,

    GET BACK TO THOSE BOXES!!!

    (and I’ll get back to mine)[blush2]

    Best wishes with the big move home,

    Del

    http://www.nzpropertytogo.com

    Profile photo of kerwynkerwyn
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    @kerwyn
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 145

    Hi All
    It is about time I jumped into this tread to back Westan up a bit. I think a lot of people have misunderstood what he is saying. I don’t think he is saying that opportunities are no longer there in NZ, only that they are not there like they use to be, and I would have to agree.
    I personally have backed off a bit in NZ also of late. I now find a lot more deals in my own back yard at the moment that is giving my great returns. Sure I had to change my strategy a little and I am not doing buy and hold, but quick cash flow deals. Like very minor renovations that add great value and then on sell quick for a $20000/ $25000 profit.
    I just love the down turn in the market all the people who were sucked in by the negative gear crap the government was spruking are now up to their necks in debt with no where to go.
    There are some great buys around if you look for them and all I have to do is walk out my front door [biggrin].
    Kerwyn

    Profile photo of hbhb
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    @hb
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 179

    hi kerwyn
    you are totally right…..there are always opportunities..because there are always winners and losers.
    i’m impressed on how you make a 20-25k profit on a quick makeover.
    how long does it take you to do these quick makeovers?
    do you take into account your time spent on project?
    surely it would be quite time consuming?
    harry

    Profile photo of kerwynkerwyn
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    @kerwyn
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 145

    Hi Harry
    The secret is to buy right at the beginning; you have to be prepared to make heaps of offers. You also have to have a walk away price and if you can’t get the house for what you want then you look for something else.
    I simply look at what it costs me to buy the materials and then I just do the job. As I do this for a living now I simply look at the total profit as you do with any business.
    I like doing this kind of work so it is fun for me and I get paid. It takes me around 2 weeks to do a make over sometimes 3 weeks.
    I don’t do any thing that needs structural work, I stick to cosmetic only.
    Kerwyn

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
    Participant
    @don
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 1,086

    Thanks Ricky! Our New information sheet is ready after the little hard drive incident. As you will see demand in the markets we are buying is very strong.

    [email protected]
    Property Finders living in NZ .

    Email now for information sheet and current deals.

    If you have joined the list since 16 Oct Please re send information.

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of Don NicolussiDon Nicolussi
    Participant
    @don
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 1,086

    ” More houses sold and in the fastest time in Invercargill in October, compared to any other month in the last year”

    Average time to sell 20 days

    Median rent for three bedroom house $177 for october.

    [email protected]
    Property Finders living in NZ .

    Email now for information sheet and current deals.

    If you have joined the list since 16 Oct Please re send information.

    Don Nicolussi | Mortgage Broker - Home Loan Warehouse
    http://homeloanwarehouse.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "I think of finance as a technology, a way of getting things done." Robert Shiller

    Profile photo of CastleDreamerCastleDreamer
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    @castledreamer
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 288

    News article taken from Property talk site this morning:
    “Housing market still strong
    New figures from the government’s valuation agency Quotable Value show the housing market is still strong with November recording the highest growth rate this year.

    QV’s November property statistics indicate that residential property values increased 15 per cent annually, up from 14.5 per cent growth reported in October, with the average sale value for a property hitting $315,089.

    The property value growth rate for November is the highest growth rate reported by QV this year, and is a turnaround from the slowdown that occurred in October, where growth was down from 14.9 per cent in September.

    “Fifteen per cent is a significant level of annual growth, and is an indication that the market is remaining buoyant despite thoughts that the market may have been beginning to level out,” said QV spokesperson, Blue Hancock.

    In most areas property value growth rates were above those reported in October, including main centres Hamilton (27.7 per cent), Christchurch (19.3 per cent), and Wellington (12 per cent).

    The growth rate in Dunedin eased to 13.9 per cent from 16.2 per cent in October, while Auckland City property values grew a comparatively low 4 per cent.

    Wanganui continues to be one of the leading centres in the country, QV said, with property value growth of 38.3 per cent, while Whangarei (34.5 per cent), Gisborne (28.4 per cent) and Rotorua (27.7 per cent) are continuing the trend of areas with an availability of affordable residential property experiencing the highest value growth levels.
    12-Dec-2005 National Business Review”

    there are always good deals around. i agree they are not as thick on the ground as they used to be, but they are definitely there

    Cheers
    CD

    Cheers
    CastleDreamer
    Christchurch Resident – occasional Christchurch and South Island opportunities. PM me for further information

    Profile photo of muppetmuppet
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    @muppet
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 900

    Hi Guys

    Capital growth in Tokoroa about 48%.

    Great stuff[thumbsupanim]

    Regards

    Join us at http://www.propertytalk.com

    Profile photo of KaWhiteKaWhite
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    @kawhite
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 1

    hahahahaha
    There is no way, the property market is slowoing down in new zealand.
    The population is doubling, and the local council is selling reserves for developing.

    Ta

    Profile photo of MiniMogulMiniMogul
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    @minimogul
    Join Date: 2002
    Post Count: 1,414

    One thing I’ve learned through getting deep into property investment is the relationship to the economy as a whole. What do we know, what can we count on? property going in cycles, of between 7 and 10 years (ten if it’s a long cycle.) So, if we had Taumarunui houses on a 16 percent return (higher if they were dumps, but let’s say 16 for a good house nothing to do) in 2003, and nowadays we’ve got 10, 11 if you’re luck for a similar property, then somewhere between now and 2013, we should get back to 16 percent yields, but low interest rates (4.5 percent.) Now interest rates are rising, they are high, so inflation starts, and this means prices go up. Okay, it’s a bit academic because it might be inflationary not capital-gains in the true sense, but let’s just say (logically, and also going off history) that if we have a time where capital gains don’t really happen in ‘real’ terms just because of the market moving, but while interest rates are high, then rents will go up. They will partly go up because of inflation, and partly because there are a few more renters thinking ‘i’ll wait to buy because interest rates are high, or because the media predicts doom and gloom’, or whatever.

    I do think the government/reserve bank make statements to try and influence the economy a certain way (please people, can we try and scare you off property investment a little bit? because otherwise I’ll have to hike interest rates again, and I don’t really want to, because I am also trying to cap inflation again.)

    Dolf de roos bought his first property when interest rates were 27 percent. A period of rampant inflation. Sounds crazy, but his yields were still better than that – he was buying positive cashflow. So in the end, I don’t mind if interest rates are 7.8 fixed for five years, as long as the deal stacks up for me. So what I am still buying NOW is a property with some or all of these sorts of factors:

    town with an upside – new industry coming to town, or other reason for growth – or just a history of growth higher than the national average – or proximity to Auckland (predicted to grow) or proximity to another growing town.

    property with an upside. either a great purchase price, room to increase rent (and add value) or add value (and increase rent) or subdivide, onsell, buy pie and sell pieces, and so on.

    if it’s a hot or rising market, you can just basically buy anything and have it go up. if it’s a down or sideways or flat or quiet market, you can be the only buyer on the horizon and make crazy offers and get them accepted. I look forward to that time again, but perhaps it won’t happen ever again. Why? 2003 was pre-Steve McKnight AKA best selling book, 42,000 members of his site now (congrats Steve!) – all looking for cashflow positive properties, and NZ having it’s very own sub-forum.

    At the beginning here I was yelling from the rooftops to the Aussies to check out NZ for deals, and some of them listened, told their friends, then we have hit books and seminars, and steve is not the only one, wealth creation is being taught everywhere – and I think once people have KNOWLEDGE they will never go back to being in the dark.

    They say that 95 percent of the wealth is in 5 percent of the people’s hands, so maybe wealth creation for ‘everybody’ is long overdue. There is a long way to go before it even gets to 94 percent/6 percent let alone ‘100 percent of the wealth of the world is in 100 percent of people’s hands’ – but where I’m going with all of this is that I think NZ is in people’s consciousness as an investor’s paradise. Sure, the US has loads of opportunities, but it’s an enormous enormous place, and your places where Westan is doing stuff are just small spots where the investing is good. Nz is the same…there’s Auckland apartments (bad! oversupply, stay away!) and there are amazing spots, which keep changing of course as prices rise in places they were lower, and then suddenly places that seemed expensive pick up, as they seem a relative bargain. So NZ is small enough for me (with the help of a network obviously) get a handle on the whole country….and zoom around from place to place, as yields go up here, too high for us, but hey, look, this other town is twice the size and growing, so let’s buy there, and hang on, they have just announced a 3 year plan for XYZ in this town, so we can predict that that’s going to go, and so on!

    You can see that this ‘technique’ works because we’ve picked things for various reasons (places) and seen it come true, it’s just logic and predicting what people are going to do in the future. It’s like saying, if I discount beers at the bottle store next door to a more expensive bottle store, I predict that more people will buy at my bottle store…I mean, duh.!

    Anyway, you can do well if you know your stuff, and though I have nothing against the US and know and love and trust Westan, I personally am making too much dolleros in NZ and have grown my portfolio so much by just following the simple strategy of buy cashflow positive from the word go, increase the rents by tidying up the property to an optimum level (without overcapitalising of course, which I probably did by mistake at the start a couple of times) or undercapitalising (don’t do any or enough work, and your rents will suffer) – so aiming for the optimum – and then as the rents rise so do values, and you either sell or refinance to carry on. I also bought some negatively geared investments (i.e. vacant land) for cheap in places I thought would rise, but the surplus was covered by the extras I was getting through raising my rents on the ones I already owned. So my portfolio remains cashflow positive. Yes, I have sold, but only two properties since I started, and one was to invest in a business venture and the other was because it needed repiling and had a fire so I let it go to a home-buyer who got a fabulous subdividable section and villa which needed to be ‘returned to it’s former glory’. I am not selling out of NZ, I am buying more! And bigger deals too, as I gain more equity, and in bigger towns as I go (though i am still holding the small town properties – like many of my clients will attest, these are some of the AAAAA+++++ performers yield-wise of my portfolio with capital gains on a scale which would put the cities to shame. Why? Well, my ‘bottom of the market properties go up proportionately faster than mid or top market properties, even in the same market’.! now I would need a mathematician to explain this, but it goes a little like this: median price jumps 30k. median is 180k, so now 210k.
    We buy 100k properties (rock bottom is say 75k, in worst don’t touch areas. we go for best of the worst, or worst of the best, if you get what I mean.) and so (this is my theory) *everything* goes up 30k. So the cheapies we are buying, just went up 30 percent….but the mid to expensive ones, only went up 10 – 20 (something) percent.

    Like I said I’m not a mathematician, but I do think that you can make money in any market by outperforming it – and doing stuff. In Buffalo westan’s mates genesis buy the run down properties and do them up with their team and you buy them done. In NZ, we buy the properties and the new owner does them up (with tradies of course) and gets the profit, so in one market you I suppose are looking for capital gains to happen all by itself, and in the other (NZ) we don’t care if it does nothing, because we can create capital gains all by ourselves, and isn’t that a wonderful outrageous concept, to actually be in control and not be reliant on ‘the environment’?

    So yeah, still in, can’t see it slowing, apart from in towns we’re not buying in anyway, (declining ones) or aren’t for the moment (overpriced ones) or oversupplies ones (auckland apartments.)

    hope everyone is having fun, and creating wealth, that’s the main thing. i will add that in NZ it’s super-easy to get finance, and I should know as I’m a self-employed full time investor!

    cheers!-
    mini
    http://nzpropertytogo.com/

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