Im probably reigniting an old argument as i know there is considerable difference in opinion on this, but I figured would raise interesting feed back. Especially since the media has started on the doom and gloom.
Who here would like to State when they expect the next boom? Based purley on historical cycles!
And when house prices will double next? Again based on cycles!regrds
Hi Nazzy, I’ll be happy to make a prediction, but first you’ll need to define:
– What constitutes a ‘boom’? The more specific the better; XX years/quarters of sustained, continual growth not less than XX% in excess of CPI inflation for example.– How do you measure the house price doubling bit? Are we talking from 2003 prices 2005 prices or from the bottom of the current cycle (which we are still far from IMNSHO)? Nominal or real (inflation adjusted) medians? If you mean a real doubling from 2003 prices, I will wager that I’ll not see this occur during my lifetime (ie another 30-70 years) for Sydney or Melbourne.
Plenty more house price cycle talk here.
Cheers, F.Thanks Foundation, i remember that topic and a lot of interesting info came out of it.Although towards the end it moved away from the cycle theory.
30 to 70 years, Thats a big call. (just jokes) im on the fence on this one.
For arguments sake, Looking for peoples opinion based on cycles of when the graph will hit another substantial peak. Not just a minor fluctuation. I notice Micheal Yardney is an exponent of the cycle theory….
Ok, I’ll have a shot. I believe the next cyclical low for residential real estat in Melbourne & Sydney will be in 2012 and the next cyclical high late in 2019 or early 2020. These lows & highs should take into account inflation (ie any capital gain less than the rate of CPI inflation for a given period constitutes a real loss).
What do you reckon?
F.[cowboy2]Based on our research, I feel the Melbourne proeprty market will reamin flat for another 18 months and then start picking up in 2007-8. The next peak could be anywhere between 2010 – 2016.
Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
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FREE subscription http://www.metropole.com.auhi all
MichaelYardney I sent you an email yesterday for those excels and thanks it was very interesting on tuesday.
But my projection is as follows and this only for the sydney market as its my area.
I think that you will see a j curve by the aug to sept next year in resi in syd.
As there will be a shortage in the rental market and this will fuel price rises and unlike a market that has price rises because of inflation or costs this will be driven by limited numbers in that market.
That hot marlet is very difficult to put out as there is no large developments in the short term.
as for doubling yes I would see that syd market will double within 5 – 7 years and growth in this area will be as always in different areas as normal.
The goverment is looking at large investor groups to help with the 20% deposit for new home owners but it won’t be much good if the 20% is eaten by demand from investors being asked by renter for properties.here to help
Originally posted by grossrealisation:hi all
MichaelYardney I sent you an email yesterday for those excels and thanks it was very interesting on tuesday.Hi
It was great to meet you on Tuesday in Sydney and put a face to the many names on this and “the other”forum.I didn’t receive your email – try again at [email protected]
Michael Yardney
METROPOLE PROPERTIES
Author of Australia’s leading property e-magazine.
Join over 10,000 readers each month.
FREE subscription http://www.metropole.com.auShane Oliver syas there will be no price growth for 10 years… now that’s gotta hurt!
http://moneymanager.smh.com.au/articles/2005/06/11/1118347629517.html
http://www.megapropertygroup.comINVESTMENT SALES * RENTAL SOLUTIONS * STRATA MANAGEMENT
Property boom? its still happening isnt it?.
“Where?” is the question.
In the last year I have been doubling values in country NSW, and QLD (with +CF property) and have lost value in Sydney with a property I have owned for four years.
So I think there are booms within downturns and vice versaJenwren , good point . I think it boils down to affordabilty some property in Sydney and melboune have hit an all time low as far as affordability is concerned, but this is dependent on suberb to suberb , there are still good growth in strong areas . Areas were people have money, own busness or are well off.
Monopoly, my favourite game
Hi Nazzy,
I don’t really know. It would be nice though if investors could say between today and the “boom” slowly and diligently acquire “quality properties”.
A mixed diverse portfolio with enough cash flow to ward off interest rate pressures and a low enough gearing rate to take full advantage of the up market.
Read “Peter Spans” books. He talks about buying propety with strong fundamentals.
At the moment my strategy is to buy family homes in good locations with large land content. The reasons primarily is because the sale price is not linked to some imaginary perceived value based on the rental yield.
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Hi,
By your question I interpret you mean the residential housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne and maybe Brisbane. I have no clue about these ‘markets’ whatsoever, but I suspect if you pick through the bones you’ll find some gems even here..
Fortunately, there are many markets that have nothing to do with those mentioned above and they are zipping along quite nicely.
So, from my vantage point, I’d say ‘the market’ has been in a ramp up for the last 2 or 3 years and is booming right now !! (in the last 6 months we’ve seen dramatic evidence of this) and are glad we’ve jumped in boots and all.
Given the long (20 plus year) contracts being signed for the mining and oilfield sectors, I reckon this boom we are currently experiencing will continue for quite a while yet.
Woohoo…
Hi Dazzling,
I read a lot of your posts, and it sometimes appears that you are quite scathing of investors who buy residential property. i do remember an earlier post of yours that talked about your father-in-law telling you that commercial property, and not residential was where to make money. Since you seem to think that residential is not the way to go, you could perhaps give us some pointers on how to get into other markets. Maybe you could tell us how you got started. I’m sure others would find your input invaluable.
Thanks
Landt.I’m currently getting all of my IP’s revalued and I’m expecting further great CG on ‘all’ of them :o)
Then I’ll see where I stand again before the next move..
REDWING
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Count The Currency With This Online Positive Cashflow CalculatorOriginally posted by landt64:Hi Dazzling,
I read a lot of your posts, and it sometimes appears that you are quite scathing of investors who buy residential property. i do remember an earlier post of yours that talked about your father-in-law telling you that commercial property, and not residential was where to make money. Since you seem to think that residential is not the way to go, you could perhaps give us some pointers on how to get into other markets. Maybe you could tell us how you got started. I’m sure others would find your input invaluable.
Thanks
Landt.Hi Landt,
I don’t want to sidetrack the thread. Apologies.
1. I must appear to be scathing, because you’re not the first to pull me up over this point. I don’t mean to be, but when I challenge the common held belief that all residential property is good to invest in, I suppose it ruffles some feathers. Granted, compared to cars and lollipops and icecream and TV’s, they are great…but that doesn’t mean that are top of the tree. Some people are getting amazing growth and decent yields off their RIP’s…great stuff I say…more power to you.
2. Despite my objection to them, and my policy not to purchase any more, I still classify myself as a residential investor due to the weight of them in our portfolio…so I’m in the boat as with everyone else. I just wish Banks wouldn’t value them higher security wise than other props, especially other props that are mainly land based.
3. Landt, what I’m truly scathing of is investors who have a whinge about all of the inherent problems associated with RIP’s, but are not prepared to venture forth and try a new flavour. Whinging about high cost of Land Taxes, having to put up with nett rents around the 2 or 2.5% mark, heavily stacked RTA against the Owner, high maintenance costs, high turnover of 6 monthly leases, fixing tiny little incidental things and generally having to wipe the tenant’s noses all the way. It comes part and parcel with RIP’s…my point is if you don’t like putting up with all of those things…don’t buy ’em.
4. It was my wife’s uncle who actually whispered in my ear “Once you’ve finished mucking around with those houses, have a look at commercial”. I was scared witless of the advice, and completely ignored it for over a year…as was my right…as it is any investor’s. I was scared because I believed all of the tripe written by RIP experts about the risks involved with CIP’s. Once I overcame my fears and debunked the experts opinions that had prejudged my views, things started happening. I remember the first time my father and I sat down and read the lease documentation for our first CIP…we both burst out laughing and couldn’t believe tenants would actually agree to all of the onerous conditions placed on them. Coming from a RIP background and RIP mindset, we were astonished.
5. Pointers and tips on how to get into CIP’s…hmmm…and detail how I got started, have a squizz at some of my posts in the Tell Tale section. I spent a good deal of time writing it all down…it’s there for all to see. I have nothing to hide, but on the same token, couldn’t care less if no-one believes me.
6. My wife thinks I’m crazy spending so long on this forum and wants me to pull out. I’m happy to oblige her if people find my opinions “against the grain”.
7. Have a chat to Pickworth, M. Yardley, Steve, Qld007, Dr X and Simon and a few others, CIP’s are not the big bad scary monsters that they are constantly made out to be.
OK here I go, based on research I did on this since 1930 the next upswing, not boom will be 2008.
Our next problem is 2011 onwards when 25% of the country start to retire (baby boomers) this is also when the next recession is predicted.
More people will start to down size and diversify their investments over the next 3 years due to a change in living styles.
Sea change areas and the QLD state will be the No.1 growth area over the next 10 – 15 years. This is due to sun shine, climit, and a happier living enviroment.
WA will perform well however due to a smaller population and distance from Eastern states will not boom past what it has just experienced.
So I agree with John Symons and say that ovey the next 3 years medium price range property will struggle, investment units will yield 2/3% at best and prestigue properties (watefronts etc) will continue to rise as well as properties within 5km of any CBD.
resiwealth[cigar]
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