- aussierogueParticipant@aussierogueJoin Date: 2003Post Count: 983
Melbourne’s population booms
By Melissa Marina, Tim Colebatch
March 24, 2005
It’s not exactly a challenge to Sydney’s number one city title – not yet, anyway – but it is a trend. For the third year running, Melbourne has significantly outgrown the harbour city, recording the highest population increase of any capital in Australia.
After decades of watching its power and population share drift northwards, Melbourne in the last financial year grew by a healthy 1.3 per cent, adding almost 45,000 people to more than 3.6 million.
In percentage terms, Melbourne’s growth almost doubled that of Sydney, which lagged behind the national average with a modest 0.8 per cent rise, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.
Despite the Bracks Government’s controversial 2030 policy push for consolidation in existing developed areas, much of Melbourne’s population increase continues to occur in outer suburban areas including Casey, Wyndham and Melton.
While Melbourne added the most people in 2003-04, Brisbane continued to be the fastest-growing city in percentage terms, adding 39,700 people, or 2.3 per cent.
AdvertisementIt is the third year in a row that Sydney has trailed the population growth of both Melbourne and Brisbane. Melbourne led the way in 2001-02 with a population increase of 41,426, followed by Brisbane and Sydney.
In Victoria, the City of Casey recorded the highest population growth of any local government area in 2003-04, with 8700 new residents.
Mayor Neil Lucas said news that the area had topped the list was “very passe out here”. Casey, he said, had led population growth for several years.
Mr Lucas said the growth in the municipality was being driven by the “juggernaut” of young people wanting to own their own homes on their own block of land.
The figures coincide with renewed debate this week over the merits of 2030, the State Government’s planning blueprint that was criticised by planning experts Bob Birrell and Kevin O’Connor as being too focused on high-density living around activity centres in urban areas.
Mr Birrell said the figures showed that unlike Sydney, Melbourne still had a strong demand for frontier land. That demand, he said, did not come just from new home owners, but from older generations wanting to upgrade from outer suburbs to estates with features such as lakes and gates. “In Melbourne about two-thirds of all dwellings are still new detached dwellings whereas in Sydney it’s more like a third,” he said.
A State Government spokesman said growth in Casey, as well as Wyndham in the west and Melton in the north, was expected because they were three of the five growth corridors identified under 2030.
“This should not be a surprise that we’re seeing growth picking up in these areas and we will continue to make sure land is available but in a planned way,” he said.
The spokesman said the 2030 plan was needed to stop “this Los Angeles-style” of growth and to ensure planning was effective, that services and transport were available and that “precious open space,” known in the blueprint as green wedges were maintained.
The bureau figures show that since 2001, Melbourne has added almost 25,000 more people to its population than Sydney. Over the three years its population has grown by 128,455 or 3.7 per cent, while Sydney’s has grown by 103,806 or 2.5 per cent.
The population rates reflect other trends that show NSW trailing on key economic indicators. In three years to June 2004, gross domestic product (GDP) grew in NSW by 7.6 per cent, compared with 19.1 per cent in WA, 17.5 per cent in Queensland, 11.2 per cent in Victoria, 10.3 per cent in Tasmania and 9.3 per cent in SA.foundationMember@foundationJoin Date: 2005Post Count: 1,153
Well I just can’t work out why Melbourne’s house prices are stagnating / falling at the same time it’s population is booming![blink]supermanMember@supermanJoin Date: 2003Post Count: 53
The endeavour to avoid LA-style is noble! I live in LA and UGH! There is a lot to be said for centralisation… I think living here has made me appreciate how important it is that Australian cities don’t go down the same path.
i’ve been over the States a few times recently and i’d heard how big LA was but it shocked me by the size. I drove from the airport towards Las Vegas at 100km an hour on the freeway and it was well over an hour before i got to the edge of the city. If i drove south it would have taken even longer to get out of the city.
USA information evenings in Melb, Syd and Brisbane in early April, email me for more info. We find cash positive deals showing 15-25% Returns in the USA email me at [email protected] to join our databasegmh454Member@gmh454Join Date: 2003Post Count: 537
Yeah many people have said that the growth that would support the “never ending Boom” was not supported by fact.
Thing that interests me is the huge number of apartments and town houses that are completed or nearing completion in the Sydney NW (middle class suburb). Should be interesting.
In some cases whole blocks with only a couple sold, and the Ute with the wheel barrow and pile of sand out the front of the sales reps office (that never changes) so as to make it still look like it is under construction.
Isn’t it interesting how things change, back in the late 1990’s we were saying Melbourne was not the place to be as everyone was moving interstate. i remember the jokes about the number place “Victoia on the Move”, and people would say yer to Queensland.
Melbourne’s a great city obviously others agree.
USA information evenings in Melb, Syd and Brisbane in early April, email me for more info. We find cash positive deals showing 15-25% Returns in the USA email me at [email protected] to join our databaseMichaelYardneyParticipant@michaelyardneyJoin Date: 2001Post Count: 616Originally posted by foundation:
Well I just can’t work out why Melbourne’s house prices are stagnating / falling at the same time it’s population is booming![blink]
There is one main reasaon for this.
Supply and demand – if there is too much supply for the demand, then prices won’t rise, no matter what the demand
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Thats exactly right Michael.
at the end of the day what dictates the price we pay for property or shares or whatever is supply and demand. There’s no “rocket science” in that.
USA information evenings in Melb, Syd and Brisbane in early April, email me for more info. We find cash positive deals showing 15-25% Returns in the USA email me at [email protected] to join our databaseaussierogueParticipant@aussierogueJoin Date: 2003Post Count: 983
Id just like to add ‘SENTIMENT’ to the equatiation (helps dictate demand!!)
Sentiment is sometimes the overridding factor when considering changes in demand…enduserMember@enduserJoin Date: 2003Post Count: 74
aussierogue, you just beat me to it; it’ definately sentiment at the moment. For someone like me, who was investing in property in the 70’s when interest was 11 to 14%, and even 18% in the 80’S, this is about to become the buying opportunity of all time!obiwanMember@obiwanJoin Date: 2004Post Count: 75
I own property in Sydney. I agree with you though, melbourne is a better investment at the moment. The median price differential cannot be justified. In the next 2-5 years when Docklands works itself through and outer melbourne reaches it’s geographical limits, prices will rise in line. Sydney is dying because of structural and planning problems. I suspect that more people move out of sydney than the 50k who enter per year, although bob carr uses the influx as an excuse for the parlous state of infrastructure. It is very difficult to build high density multistory appartments in Sydney, there has been nothing like the tower devellopments in Sydney. The glut in piremont and the inner city is a lie. There is insufficient supply but this is choking off affordability and the engine room for commercial growth. Clover moores are killing Sydney. Property owners in the area love it (the NIMBY syndrome), but in the medium to long term it is very bad for the core demand for accomodation.