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  • Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    In this series I hope to encourage some discussion of actual real estate investing facts vs myths.

    Today’s Myth: House prices double every 10 years on average (equally applies to the ‘double every 7 years’ myth).

    Some recent examples:

    Originally posted by JasonBourne:

    in theory, property doubles in value every 7-10 years,

    https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forum/topic/15747.html

    Originally posted by holdandrefinance:

    PROPERTIES GROW BY ABOUT 10PERCENT ANNUAL SO DOUBLE EVERY 7 YEARS

    https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forum/topic/11309.html

    Originally posted by geo:

    Its estimated that property doubles almost every 10 years.

    https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forum/topic/13330.html

    Originally posted by yack:

    A well located property thats worth $250k today will (if history repeats – and there is no reason why not) will be worth close to $450k in 10 yrs time (i am being conservative).

    https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forum/topic/6505/3.html

    Originally posted by gocats:

    Thought I might share my experience from a seminar I attended last night on property investing. Their stats suggested that properties in this area double every 7-10 years.

    https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forum/topic/4279.html

    Originally posted by yack:

    If you bought a quality property, after 10 years it would have doubled in value

    https://www.propertyinvesting.com/forum/topic/6505/4.html

    Looks like it’s time to BUST THIS MYTH![fear]

    Professor Peter Abelson of Macquarie University has this to say:

    There were significant housing price booms from 1971 to 1974, from 1979 to 1981, from 1987 to 1989, and from 1996 through to 2003. After each of the first three booms, real prices tended to fall.
    However, in the long run real price rises outstripped falls. Consequently, real house prices rose by about 180 per cent between 1970 and 2003. Allowing for hous ing improvements, real prices rose by more like about 100 per cent over this period. However, both estimates give an exaggerated view of real price increases if, as we expect, there is a real house price downturn post 2003.

    (The emphasis is mine)
    HOUSING PRICES IN AUSTRALIA:1970 TO 2003
    The entire research paper can be found here:
    http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/research/Abelson_9_04.pdf

    To arrive at a Ten Year Average, we must look further than just the Last Ten Years.

    Any comments?
    F[cap]

    Profile photo of pfsfinancepfsfinance
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    This is probably the best example I have in my property portfolio in regards to capital growth over 15 year period. I purchased my first ip in Pakenham in 1989 for $98.000-.

    Property is now valued at $235,000-. We had it valued June 2000 and it came in at $115,000-. Basically there was no movement out there for 11 years. But it has nearly doubled over the past few years. (Which has happened in most places in Australia)

    Financial Wellbeing Coach
    W: http://www.pfsfinance.com.au
    E:[email protected]
    E:[email protected]

    Development Finance Specialist

    Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    Ok Kwiko, so if your property had doubled in value every 10 years it would now be worth 300k. If it had doubled every 7 years it would be worth over 400k. Adjusted for inflation the purchase price was $157,258 in todays dollars. That amounts to 67% HPI over 15 years or a couple of percent above CPI, so you’re about average!
    Cheers, F.[cap]

    Profile photo of NobleoneNobleone
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    Hi All,

    This one always cracks me up. [lmao]

    If as an investor I were to work on the premise of ‘property doubles in value every 10 years’ then I therefore need never worry about what stage the market is at when I get into it because all I would have to do is ride out a decade and then reap the rewards… [blink]

    If only it were that easy (sigh) [withstupid]

    Cheers, Nobleone. [biggrin]

    “Making mistakes is just another another tool for learning.”

    Profile photo of MonopolyMonopoly
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    Foundation,

    What is your biggest concern; that property does or in your opinion does not double in 7-10 years, or that YOUR property has not performed in this way???

    Example 1:

    Bought PPOR in 1981 for 27K
    (turned into IP after 2 years)
    Sold it in 1990 for 550K

    Bought IP in 1993 for 175K
    Sold in 2002 for 925K

    And that’s just 2; I could go on but bragging is not my style and apart from being unnecessary, bores me silly!!! [sleepyanim]

    As you can see the figures did more than double, triple or even quadruple, and it was not always in boom times either. I have been buying and selling both here and interstate for over 20 years and if you do your homework and buy well, you will make money twice, thrice and ten-fold!!!

    If you want to believe that properties do not double between 7-10 years, fine that is your perogative….but to say that it doesn’t happen based on one piece of research is ridiculous. And please don’t bore me with this study found or that theorist proved because I know more about research methodology than I care to give more than a passing thought to.

    Bottom line….land appreciates, and consequently so to does whatever is on it!!! HOWEVER it does rely heavily on where that bit of dirt is, what surrounds it, supply and demand and a whole lot of other factors. You buy crap, you get weeds for growth and consequently you make squat.[blush2]

    You want to believe likewise; cool…knock yourself out, don’t buy any, and leave it for those of us who are misguided enough to think that it does.

    Enjoy!!!

    Jo

    Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    Hi Monopoly, you’ve quoted some pretty amazing examples there!
    In answer to your question – No, my properties did not double in 10 years. On whole they appreciated 300% in 4 years.

    If you want to believe that properties do not double between 7-10 years, fine that is your perogative….but to say that it doesn’t happen based on one piece of research is ridiculous.

    Please point to any flaw in that research. Alternatively, supply evidence that property does in fact double in price every ten years on average. Your examples are very nice, but remember, two swallows etc…

    I did not say it never happens, the myth is that house prices double every 10 years on average!
    I believe I have provided more evidence to refute this claim than any other poster has to prove it true.

    And please don’t bore me with this study found or that theorist proved because I know more about research methodology than I care to give more than a passing thought to.

    Again, please point to the flaws in Prof. Abelson’s methodology.

    Here’s some food for thought – If property prices double every 7 years, then by 2050 the average Sydney house price will be 43.2 million dollars!!! If inflation follows its trend of <4%, the average Australian income will be around $65,000 at that time. Can you see what is wrong with this picture?

    I hope you can muster a more compelling argument against tomorrow’s real estate myth!

    Cheers,
    F.[cap]

    Profile photo of MonopolyMonopoly
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    Foundation,

    I really don’t know what your problem is, nor do I care for that matter.

    All I care to say on this matter any further is simply that data can be manipulated to tell any story you want it to tell, so please, don’t even go there.

    Your inane need to debunk any “myth” is at best milding entertaining, and at worst, annoying and argumentative with undertones of “troll” like behaviour.

    Basically foundation, I really don’t give a crock; fact or fiction, myth or truth….I am more than happy laughing all the way to the bank while you are sitting there scrutinizing the validity of historical evidence.

    Enjoy!!!

    Jo

    Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    Originally posted by Monopoly:

    Your inane need to debunk any “myth” is at best milding entertaining, and at worst, annoying and argumentative with undertones of “troll” like behaviour.

    Nobody is forcing you to read or post to this thread Monopoly. FWIW my PM box has a constant stream of messages from people who ARE interested in discussing all facets of property investing in a RATIONAL manner. If you would prefer to hear only stories where properties increase by 2037% (27k to 550k) in ten years, I would suggest you simply don’t return to this thread. If you must post, at least do yourself a favour and find a fault in my facts.

    Remember, the average Sydney house is going to be 43.2 million dollars in 2050 according to your theory… let’s see, that would make it in 2099:

    Five Billion, Five Hundred and Twenty Nine Million, Six Hundred Thousand Dollars….

    Have you spotted the main flaw in this series yet or do you simply believe I am putting some kind of spin on the numbers?

    Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    In the year 2155 (that’s only 150 years away), that same house will be worth:

    One Trillion, Four Hundred & Fiften Billion, Five Hundred & Seventy-Seven Million Six Hundred Thousand Dollars…

    [lmao][specool][thumbsup2]

    Profile photo of MonopolyMonopoly
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    No foundation,

    Your numbers are not flawed; true if the calculation (or MY “theory” as you so eloquently put it) is correct yes Sydney house prices would be in the millions!!! The results achieved as per my examples are not common everyday occurrences, however they are not in isolation or outside the realms of possibility given the right market conditions and with enough time in which CG can accumulate. But again, I will leave it there, it’s evident you are not reading clearly (I’ve noticed this in a few of your posts).

    Correct, no one has or is forcing me to read/post, however out of courtesy I addressed your comment marked to myself; perhaps it would have been best ignored, would that have been more in line with the manner in which you are accustomed being treated by others??? [blush2]

    Well I’ll let it go at that; feel free to PM me (if time permits). [whistle] Best you run off and answer ALL those PMs now, after all, the Inbox only holds so many, and if you do not clear them, it will prevent new ones coming in, and you don’t a queue now do you??? [biggrin]

    Cheers,

    Jo

    Profile photo of MonopolyMonopoly
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    Originally posted by foundation:

    In the year 2155 (that’s only 150 years away), that same house will be worth:

    One Trillion, Four Hundred & Fiften Billion, Five Hundred & Seventy-Seven Million Six Hundred Thousand Dollars…

    [lmao][specool][thumbsup2]

    Well if you live long enough, you might get a piece of the pie mighten you??? [winking] [laugh4][laugh4]

    Profile photo of OSiennaOSienna
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    Hi Foundation,

    I find that some property investors get very defensive when their strategies or beliefs are questioned. These people don’t often like being challenged because it can be difficult for them to backup their own claims or refute an opposing argument. Some also don’t like to think that the thousands of dollars they’ve spent on wealth seminars and books may have some caveats or flaws in the methodology.

    If you read some of the research floating around it basically says that property prices do rise consistently in the long run. And it may well be doubling in face value during certain periods. However, it does stress that in terms of REAL growth i.e. factoring in inflation, housing improvements, building costs and tax legislation changes etc, the amount of growth may not be as rosey as we would all like to believe.

    For example, my income has virtually doubled over the past decade but I don’t really feel like I have twice the spending power as I did when I first started out. Firstly, I pay more tax now and most of my essential living expenses have also gone up (food, transport, childcare etc). Technology has also surged ahead. That $3000 television set I bought 10 years ago was bleeding edge in home entertainment at the time. I can now go out and buy an equivalent sized but much more advanced unit for $500 but I need to spend around $10K for the latest flat panel display with a cinema quality sound system.

    Basically, my income may have doubled but my cost of living and my expectations have also doubled. Just like rising property prices when viewed in real terms, I don’t think that my level of contentment has doubled in the same fashion. It’s a bit delusive but it sounds nice when I boast to people about how my income has increased two fold in the last decade.

    Thanks for posting the research paper. It helps to put things into perspective without all the hype.

    Profile photo of MonopolyMonopoly
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    Originally posted by OSienna:
    I find that some property investors get very defensive when their strategies or beliefs are questioned. These people don’t often like being challenged because it can be difficult for them to backup their own claims or refute an opposing argument.

    I don’t know whether you are referring to me specifically here O’Sienna, and if you aren’t please excuse my being so presumption. However, in the event that you are, I would like to add (if I may) that I personally have no problem with being challenged on either my strategies, beliefs and/ or the results achieved as set out in my examples. As I mentioned, these results are not everyday occurrences (I wish!!) and to provide specific causal reasons as to how they came out, that is, how I managed (for example) to sell one property for 550K when the initial outlay was a measley 27K (less than 10 years prior) would indeed be difficult, but certainly not one that I would not try to explain to the best of my ability. I would say there are many variables that played a part and although I don’t expect this type of result in every house I buy and sell, I do believe given the right circumstances/market climate such astounding results can be replicated.

    Property does not grow at a constant X% every year and fluctuations along with changing market trends will help determine the price a property will fetch in the end.

    As for refuting foundation’s argument, I have no inclination to do so; he feels that property does not (on average) double every 10 years, fine he is entitled to maintain that view. I am not saying it is right or wrong, only what has happened for me is achievable.

    Cheers,

    Jo

    Profile photo of byronent_2byronent_2
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    I just want to check the maths here foundation.

    What is the average price in Sydney for a home.

    Working on a figure of $500k.
    2015 would be $1M
    2025 would be $2M
    2035 would be $4M
    2045 would be $8M
    2055 would be $16M
    2065 would be $32M
    2075 would be $64M
    2085 would be $128M
    2095 would be $256M
    2105 would be $512M
    2115 would be $1.024B
    2125 would be $2.048B
    2135 would be $4.096B
    2145 would be $8.192B
    2150 would be $12.278B

    HOw you get trillion is way beyond me.

    Have a great evening, you must be very bored.

    Byronent
    Adelaide SA

    Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    Originally posted by byronent:

    2150 would be $12.278B
    HOw you get trillion is way beyond me.
    Have a great evening, you must be very bored.
    Byronent
    Adelaide SA

    I appreciate your sarcasm. Care to stake your credibility on this one? Do you actually believe that house prices on average double every ten years?

    I thought I made my method quite clear:

    If property prices double every 7 years, then by 2050 the average Sydney house price will be 43.2 million dollars!!!

    Perhaps I should have clarified that I was following the same series in my subsequent posts.

    Of course, your figures are far more realistic, almost believable…[blink] Hell, I might even have to buy 3 houses if I want to retire with a 25 billion dollar nest egg.[thumbsupanim] I guess I may as well stop working too, as I will have more capital gains on those houses in the next 8 years than I will net in the remainder of my working life! Thanks for pointing that out![tongue]

    I’m sorry to have wasted your time, I’ll try to improve my clarity in tomorrow’s episode of..

    MYTH BUSTERS!!!

    It’s ok, I’m starting to run out of myths to bust somewhere in the mid teens!

    Cheers, F.[cap]

    Profile photo of byronent_2byronent_2
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    How about the myth that what you say is actually fact.

    If you could live another 150 years I am sure you would be worth billions simply for getting to that age.

    I never said you would be rich for owning the properties.

    15 years ago, a million dollars was something but a dream, now you really got nothing to boast about with a million.

    Times a change, so does the value of the dollar. If you want too feed the gullible with utter nonsense, how can you say you have evidence.

    I am another living proof of property doubles at least once every ten years. From my own experience and my own portfolio.

    I don’t need a professor who I am sure only owns his family home and possibly negative gears an IP.

    Anyway, this is old, thanks for the topic foundation, hope to see another more challenging one.

    42.3Million OMG how you come up with these numbers just makes my head spin.

    Byronent
    Adelaide SA

    Profile photo of MonopolyMonopoly
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    Foundation,

    What is your problem??? I can appreciate that you give credence to the writing of the dear professor, and I’m not suggesting there is anything wrong with that, but why do you have such an issue with experienced investors who perhaps have never even read a daily newspaper let alone analysed research data; yet made millions???

    There is much to learn in this forum and in Somersoft, and many of the investors have sourced their wealth from both the school of academia and that of experience; you would do well to give them (if nothing else) a bit of old fashioned common courtesy and allow them to express themselves without your ridicule.

    There are many wonderful people here, who unlike myself, do not have a PhD but nonetheless are have made more money and achieved success well beyond any that my former university colleagues could ever dream of.

    Jo

    Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    Originally posted by byronent:

    42.3Million OMG how you come up with these numbers just makes my head spin.

    2005 – $450k
    2012 – $900k
    2019 – $1.8m
    2026 – $3.6m
    2033 – $7.2m
    2040 – $14.4m
    2047 – $28.8m
    2050 – ______? [blink]

    Originally posted by Monopoly:

    you would do well to give them (if nothing else) a bit of old fashioned common courtesy and allow them to express themselves with your ridicule.

    I’ll be sure to do that Ms Monopoly. [whistle]
    <edit> hey no fair! You changed your post. I’ll leave mine as it was originally!</edit>

    Cheerio, F.[cap]

    Profile photo of byronent_2byronent_2
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    Move on with your life.

    You get a thrill from taking the <edited>?

    You can blow me with your whistling.

    Here I thought you were someone worth conversing with, another time waster.

    Wait till the next boom buddy and then got on the wave. Play it safe. Goodnight.

    Byronent
    Adelaide SA

    Profile photo of foundationfoundation
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    Originally posted by byronent:

    Move on with your life.

    You get a thrill from taking the <edited>?

    You can blow me with your whistling.

    Here I thought you were someone worth conversing with, another time waster.

    Wait till the next boom buddy and then got on the wave. Play it safe. Goodnight.

    Byronent
    Adelaide SA

    Because my maths did add up suddenly I am a whatsit head?
    I’m sorry if you got the wrong idea about the whistling – firstly it had nothing to do with you and secondly I didn’t realise it was a proposition for <edited>. I’ll be more particular with my use in the future![blink]

    Cheers, F.[cap]

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