Harb my dear,
The problem is not convincing yourself that your properties are worth 10 million dollars each.
The problem is trying to sell them and finding out that the only offer you get is 200.000.Yes Scamp it is a shame as I have also had many deletes,
This is a great communication site and like so many businesses the value comes from the CEO down … information is valuable especially for the unsophisticated investor …
D
Scamp wrote:Harb my dear,The problem is not convincing yourself that your properties are worth 10 million dollars each.
The problem is trying to sell them and finding out that the only offer you get is 200.000.Then refusing to sell them for less then 10 million dollars each would solve my problem.
Scamp wrote:I was looking for my previous posts , only to find that they all got deleted.
A shame, because there was some very interesting reading and warnings in there, also some nice replies from people. It was titled something like "Do not invest now, the property market is crashing" and was posted about a year ago.I wonder why an investment forum would have deleted that post…
The world is so much worse off, not having the wisdom of Scamp to rely on, in these dark and stormy times. How will I sleep tonight??
harb wrote:Scamp wrote:Harb my dear,The problem is not convincing yourself that your properties are worth 10 million dollars each.
The problem is trying to sell them and finding out that the only offer you get is 200.000.Then refusing to sell them for less then 10 million dollars each would solve my problem.
Yes, this is what everyone who can afford to do that is doing. I believe none ( or very few ) of the people on this forum have actually tried to SELL a house instead of buy buy buy. The real problem, my dear harb, occurs when the BANK tells you that your properties are worth 200.000 and that you please pay back the 9.800.000 'equity maaaate' that you have taken out of the bank.
This btw is what caused this whole mess.Scamp wrote:harb wrote:Scamp wrote:Harb my dear,The problem is not convincing yourself that your properties are worth 10 million dollars each.
The problem is trying to sell them and finding out that the only offer you get is 200.000.Then refusing to sell them for less then 10 million dollars each would solve my problem.
Yes, this is what everyone who can afford to do that is doing. I believe none ( or very few ) of the people on this forum have actually tried to SELL a house instead of buy buy buy. The real problem, my dear harb, occurs when the BANK tells you that your properties are worth 200.000 and that you please pay back the 9.800.000 'equity maaaate' that you have taken out of the bank.
This btw is what caused this whole mess.
As long as you are making payments why on earth would a bank turn a papor loss into a real loss by calling in loans. It would make no sense. They would much rather you continue to pay your huge interest bill and wait for prices to recover no matter how long it takes.If this was to happen on a large scale then we are in a world of hurt even the gloomers would be shocked at. Cant hide behind gold bars either as im sure the new world order would be bashing down your door to seize them. Forget your rich farmland that will be seized by the government to feed the people during this coming depression.Where do you draw the line.Scamp,
The forum was getting boring until you came back and set it alight with discussion and ideas from both sides, its great to hear both sides of the arguments.
Thanks for all inputs. I'm sure there are lots of readers like myself who are interested in hearing from all the forum participants.Scamp wrote:Yes, this is what everyone who can afford to do that is doing. I believe none ( or very few ) of the people on this forum have actually tried to SELL a house instead of buy buy buy.Why SELL it if you can RENT it ? Isn't that just like killing the golden goose ?
My oldest IP cost me just over $40K for the H&L package and is currently bringing $420/week in rent. Do you think that maybe I should sell it and share the profits with the taxman or be better off to continue renting it out ?Lets say I believe you and you are right for a change. I sell it now before your 40% crash arrives
and get $450K for it from which I would gracefully donate $200K to Mr Taxman.
The remaining $250K would be just enough to buy a similar property AFTER your 40% crash arrives (if prices didn't double again before it arrives) and I'd be renting it for whatever I get now. The only people that would profit from all this would be Mr Taxman and the RE agent. So the question is Why Bother Selling?James Packer… Once richest man in Australia, Even he is being forced into selling his assets at reduced prices to keep afloat….
Harb do you have enough Cash in the bank to keep hold of all your assets (rates, land taxes,maintenance, ect ect) and live for a year or two without any income coming in from them ?
If not then your just as susceptible as the billionaires blowing there brains out because they lost there fortune due to current circumstances…
Do you have a job ? Or do you live off your Investments ? oohhhh no, Maybe its time to consider trading time for money… Ouchie
I would not feel bad about it, I already know of millionaires looking to get a job
WJ Hooker wrote:Scamp,
The forum was getting boring until you came back and set it alight with discussion and ideas from both sides, its great to hear both sides of the arguments.
Thanks for all inputs. I'm sure there are lots of readers like myself who are interested in hearing from all the forum participants.While I enjoy reading discussion and ideas from boths sides, the same people banging on about the same old argument in EACH AND EVERY post (and then turning post on completely different subjects to their same old claptrap) is becoming very tiresome.
K
[/quote]
While I enjoy reading discussion and ideas from boths sides, the same people banging on about the same old argument in EACH AND EVERY post (and then turning post on completely different subjects to their same old claptrap) is becoming very tiresome.
K[/quote]
Well there has been some progress the issue of peak oil, rising IR's and the great Sep 08 property crash is now not debated here anymore.
hbbehrendorff wrote:James Packer… Once richest man in Australia, Even he is being forced into selling his assets at reduced prices to keep afloat….Harb do you have enough Cash in the bank to keep hold of all your assets (rates, land taxes,maintenance, ect ect) and live for a year or two without any income coming in from them ?
I'll be alright for a decade or three, I'm so frugal I don't even own an iPod and buy all my booze of eBay.
.
I think the Packer situation is no different to many rich families along the centuries… the poor great-grandfather works hard and accumulates some wealth, the grandfather works smart and increases the wealth, the father multiplies it and then comes sonny who gets to loose it all before a new cycle of wealth begins again.Scamp,
Very happy to provide some information for you.
I suggest you check out the following areas in the NT: Nightcliff, Coconut Grove, Wagaman and Driver just to give you an idea of where. I base my % on the increased amount of $ offered from one year to the next on various properties.
Ummester,
The properties are very much CF++. If values do drop I can be very patient and wait until the increases start again, although I have been tempted to sell the odd one or two. Something about knowing that most of the properties are giving me around 1K each per month in my pocket stops me from doing so. Also I still think Darwin has a good 12-18 months of growth at more than 5% and probably closer to 10% during this time, but I could be wrong and time will tell.
Anyone seen those barnd new 3br cash flow +ve townhouses in Waterford, Brisbane for $317k……….cant see them dropping 40% can you ?
fill yer boots
and this for my own PPR suburb
Trendy Bulimba in Brisbane's inner east has recorded a decline in sales of only 8.7 per cent over the two September quarters and median house prices during the periods have increased 11.5 per cent to $900,000.
Place real estate salesman Matthew Ollerton said niche suburbs such as Bulimba still faced buyer competition.
"Lots of people want to live there and many see this as their prime time to get in before it gets unaffordable."
Mr Ollerton recently sold a three-bedroom, two-bathroom house at 21 Brisbane St on a 405sq m block for $735,000.
And he negotiated the sale of a near-new contemporary house on the Corso for $1.2 million.
Scamp wrote:I was looking for my previous posts , only to find that they all got deleted.
A shame, because there was some very interesting reading and warnings in there, also some nice replies from people. It was titled something like "Do not invest now, the property market is crashing" and was posted about a year ago.I wonder why an investment forum would have deleted that post…
Hello old friend,
To save you looking for old threads and give you more time to post here I put together some of your more memorable warnings here. So enjoy…
Scamp on investing,Scamp wrote:"Stay out of property… until you can buy for 200.000 instead of 500.000…."
"The bottom could be anywhere between 3 years from now, or 20 years from now, depending on how much the government will mess with the whole thing."
"I predict goldprice higher than 1100, possibly higher than 1200 by march 2009 ( write it down somewhere ). That's about 20% increase.
Speak to you in January 2009 about that prediction."and on the "new type" of investor
Scamp wrote:"I have heard that Rudd is planning to limit the amount of credit that banks can lend as mortgage will be controlled by law. Something like 4 times gross wages. Don't say noone warned you. ( Even if the warning came from Europe )"
"Rudd will *NEVER* let the rents inflate. Remember my words.
The plan :
– councils will make up standard rental prices per region
– government will make a list of aspects of a rental house. These include amount of light ( window size , height from the floor at which windows starts ), number of rooms, number of bathrooms, pool ? garage ? parking availability, location, amount of garden, total space of the house etc.
Based on these calculations, you will get a median price, which you can get inflation correction on.
And that, my friends , will be the start of a new type of investor, and the end of the old investors.
Oh yes, banks won't lend you more than 4 times your wages, and 'equity' can't be used in getting new mortgages. Believe me when I say this will all happen."Scamp on interest rates,
Scamp wrote:"rates will rise by 0.5 percent this year, and keep going up , and up and up. There's 0% chance of them going down. Oil prices add to the pressure, as inflation is up up up, so interest must go up up up to 13% base rates minimum, which means 18% variable rates.
These are interesting times, especially when you think a lot of property investors have 20 (!!) properties or more, all NEGATIVELY geared of barely above 0 at their fixed low rates that will jump to 10% in september."
"reports from the banks say that that is the month that the first of a lot of mortgages will reset from fixed rates to variable rates. That's 6% to 10%. That's about double repayments , every month from September 2008 on.
The reset will take until about July 2009, with about 30.000 mortgages resetting every month. September is the first of those months."
"I have said a few times on GlobalHousePriceCrash.com that for my area of interest the prices will probably bottom out around january 2009. Why not before ?
Even if interest rates go down, the monthly repayments will still go UP. How can this be ?
For one, banks will individually rise interestrates, whatever RBA does doesn't matter. They do this with a good reason which I won't explain here, fact is simply they will do it. But more importantly, a lot of 5-year and 3-year fixed mortgages will be reset to variable interestrates around september 2008 up to june 2009. That means many people who used to pay 6% will now have to pay 10%. This means on average an increase of 1500$ per month extra payments."and Scamp in denial,
Scamp wrote:"Interest rates won't fall…
It's a hoax, just like all the spruiker stuff the real estate agents post.
Even *IF* RBA lowers interest, the banks will keep rising them anyway, so the situation will only get worse if the RBA drops interest rates "
"Interest cuts will make Australia's pain worse rather than easier. It will just make a recession more painful, that's really all it does. RBA will not cut rates this year, and banks will keep raising interest rates.
Anything else will rise unemployment, hurt export and not have an effect anyway. There you have it : the truth. No good news coming for some years unfortunately."
"RBA will *NOT* lower the rates, how many times do you want me to tell you.
Just take the advice, and do something with it. It can be predicted, and it just was.
Just do the maths and you will know why they won't lower the rates.""Banks will keep raising interestrates because credit is expensive. What RBA does is futile."
then there was Scamp the advisor,
Scamp wrote:"Why don't you fix your interest now for 5 years ? At least you won't be one of the foreclosed ones.
Closing your eyes or putting your head in the sand won't let the problem go away : act now, fix your interest at 8.75% ( yes , you can still do this with your bank ) before you HAVE to do anything.
Interest at this moment will only go up , because Rudd wants to fight off inflation at all costs ( that's what he says anyway ) Just read the news, and make up your mind. I would not be surprised to see another 0.25 interest increase in June and one more in September.
Remember the 17% interest rates ?… they're coming back. "Scamp the tactician,
Scamp wrote:"The best tactic is to rent a home for 100-200 per week out of the expensive rental area's and buy a cheap car, maybe a bicycle, and get a job in a government position somewhere , or in education."and finally the almsgiving Scamp,
Scamp wrote:"because in the end, I will pay for those people's mistakes when I live in Australia from next year on.
Taxes will go up , pensions will go down, pension age will go up from 65 ( or whatever it is in Australia ) to 70, more crime, more homeless, more pressure on 'efficiency' ( Lean / Toyota-style Japanese-style company management ), burglar alarms and fences just to keep the lowlifes away from me and my girlfriend."
By now you probably wish your posts were deleted.
ps. how is the house hunting for 100/week rentals going ? If you strike out in Sydney I saw one in Parkes near the hospital if you're interested, you could walk to work.
cheers
harb,
Excellent post!!! Well done!!!!!!
what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?
bardon wrote:what about Peak Oil ? Anything on that ?wait a couple of years when it all turns around, recessions are planned to reduce inflation to stimulate future growth. In my opinion Oil will be worth $200 a barrel in 3-4 years,
The simple facts are the same as 2 ,3 even 4 yrs ago , you wouldn't have to be scramp or a rocket scientist to understand that it couldn't go on , regardless of what ever was happening with the rest of the world .
And all the rubbish that China would save our butt , what a joke with China being on one the longest and most massive rampages out doing the rest of us put together , of course it's gonna slow . I wouldn't be at all surprised if China slips in the deepest recession on record .
The simple facts were , Australia is just an ordinary country it's not Tuscany or the Bahamas so what possibly sustainably justifies 7 and 8 times the average wage in house prices or cost of living ?Then the direction Howard let prices and lack of scruples on ' everything ' and everyone in this country run riot , I mean who would believe it could continue on that path with no consequence ?
I've also believed for years that there is no rental crisis or housing shortage .
Investors, greed , sheep mentality, stupid governments along with home shows , guru's and FHOG just flooded the market in a panic . Of course it has to come down and balance restored , common sense especially with no real justification for it .
Supply , rent and house prices , demand the lot should return to normal levels as it hits the fan. I mean even banks have been refusing to pay them for a year or two in a lot of cases now so youknow .
And talk last year of more booms – how the hell was anyone, bar investors anyway , going to be able to afford even higher prices than what we already had ?Besides they do say what goes up must come down , well we certainly went up so in in all logic well !
Cheers.
Personally I think the average Joe feels that orrr, prices are flattening , nows a great time to get a bargain for 3 or 400 k so along with FHOG they think they're doing well . Unfortunately I still think those prices will prove ridiculous in the long run.
I reckon what they aren't realizing is that if they could wait the real prices are a long way off yet and there'll be lots of very grizzling bank managers around in a year or so and very stressed out recently new home owners .
Not that you can always wait though as with even my own situation, so you can't really blame people that are just dying to get a start.But personally I think Rudd's home grant stuff was a good idea and will help things atleast abit maybe allot , well in certain areas anyway .
Because one , FH owners need a hand to even get close to in the door now – even though they shouldn't actually be buying now if they can wait but two , so much extends from the building and housing industry .
Atleast keeping those areas ticking over if nothing else surely does have to help atleast a bit. !It will probably help atleast soften the what would have been and could still well be massive thud you would expect after our boom , especially with everything else going on.
If they can soften that area atleast abit , it might carry it more gently through over the next year or two until the more general side of economies get back on an even keel .Then again , might not , should help a bit though.
ummester wrote:harb wrote:Btw, do you get the impression that the sub $500k market in ACT is picking up ? Lots of Under Offer and Sold on re.com since the start of this year.There seems to be a bottleneck around 350-400k southside at the moment. 4 beddys on 700m2 blocks are almost good value for money (many being advertised around 390k and probably selling around 370) but the 3 beddys on similar sized land has yet to adjust. The land component is still overvalued and the 3 beddys will drop some more before this year is out.
I watch allhomes mainly and there are numerous under offers but many of those are also falling through. The grant increases seem to be getting a lot of FHBs to put offers in but less, it seems, are actually getting approved. I have seen a couple of properties under offer one month, gone for a couple of weeks and then back up at the same price or less a month later.
All that said, there are still more coming on than what are going under offer, prices aren't going up and my deposit is ever increasing…
BTW back – hows Perth doing:)
and get $450K for it from which I would gracefully donate $200K to Mr Taxman. 
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