All Topics / General Property / All my warning posts got deleted ?

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  • Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    I was looking for my previous posts , only to find that they all got deleted.
    A shame, because there was some very interesting reading and warnings in there, also some nice replies from people. It was titled something like "Do not invest now, the property market is crashing" and was posted about a year ago.

    I wonder why an investment forum would have deleted that post…

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:
    I was looking for my previous posts , only to find that they all got deleted.
    A shame, because there was some very interesting reading and warnings in there, also some nice replies from people. It was titled something like "Do not invest now, the property market is crashing" and was posted about a year ago.

    I wonder why an investment forum would have deleted that post…

    See, I've told you you'd get paranoid if you hang around with the wrong crowd on other forums.  

    Profile photo of WJ HookerWJ Hooker
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    Scamp,
                 Welcome back. I loved your posts, and I read all of the "Don't buy real estate its crashing" or something like that. It had heaps of great information and web information. I wonder how long admin leaves it on?

                  I think your predictions are coming true!!!

    Profile photo of hbbehrendorffhbbehrendorff
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    Yes,  I remember all the guru's on this site telling how by late 2008 or early 2009 it would boom…. "The Mother of All Booms" to be exact.

    Then there where the guys telling everyone on this site to Quickly put all there money in the stock market a few months back…. Now we are in 2009 to find the ASX in the 3300's

    Like K Rudd and a lot of people on this site,  They just do not understand economics,  The government can't fix our economy by redistribution of wealth and continued shots of consumer spending,  Nor will spending money we don't have on infrastructure change anything,  Actually ANY government intervention will only cause a bad recession to turn into something worse then the 1930's depression.  One example of making things worse is through the 21k housing grant,  This is the government's bid to keep house prices at the unsustainable levels they are currently at,  Falling house prices is the solution,  Not the problem.

    The same things applies to this so called big government spending on infrastructure to "get the economy going".  If bob looses his job,  Its the same thing as a financial adviser telling him to spend money on upgrading his kitchen or putting a swimming pool in the back yard,  Its obviously that this type of childish action will only serve to worsen his economic problems.

    In America they have just elected a new president and Obama plan's to solve the unemployment problems by creating millions of new government jobs,  Government jobs are unproductive and only serve to increase the burden on the people,  As its the citizens who pay for government to exist,  The bigger the government the bigger the burden they place.  This is something right out of the book of Marxism and Kevin seems to be leading us down the same path of socalism and away from free market policy's

    The facts are that consumer spending is not what makes for a good economy,  Hell, if this myth where true then America with there  $8,000,000,000,000 debt and growing $1 trillion dollar trade deficits would make them the most economicly prosperous country on the earth.  You can't spend your way out of a recession because the solution is actually consumer saving,  Not spending.  Economically strong country's are the ones who consume less then they produce and have savings so entrepreneurs can create growth and jobs.

    Just like America we in Australia continue to consume more then we produce and this has been going on for some time,  It may be viable for a short period but eventually there will be dire concequences,  And NO,  Our Natural resources are not enough to sustain our WHOLE economy.

    http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/trade-deficit-5/2008/04/08/

    In 10 years time we will have a lower standard of living then we do today unless we totally turn our economy around the other way,  If we continue on to long we will eventually become a broke country and possibly even turn into an undeveloped nation.

    2009 will not be good year to earn money in either Australian Property or Stocks,  As I have always said,  the best assets will be precious metals like gold/silver and Asian Stocks.

    In the next few years,  the money savy people will earn much while stupid people you will see loose there fortunes…

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Seems like the 30% below peak I was arguing may have been a miscalculation – looks like we are heading to 40% or greater now.

    Profile photo of C2C2
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    Don't know about you guys but my properties which are mainly middle of the market have not dropped 30-40% but gone up around 20-30%.  This is based on the offers I get to buy my properties which aren't advertised but when people go into RE office looking to buy something they get shown my properties and asked to make an offer.

    I'm still looking at getting more IP's in 09.  Did I mentioned that rents have gone up nearly 30% across the board as well.

    I will agree that some properties in the top price range of the market have dropped considerably.

    Guess I have been just plain lucky.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    C2 wrote:
    This is based on the offers I get to buy my properties which aren't advertised but when people go into RE office looking to buy something they get shown my properties and asked to make an offer.

    What is the point of that? If they aren't for sale, why get people to make an offer?

    Profile photo of reecoreeco
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    yip i read some of your post

    I think people who admin this site just dont like you

    Nobody likes a know it all. On the street or on the net. Id like to know where your post went because i think mine might be on its way if i dont "keep in line"

    Profile photo of C2C2
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    Ummester,

    I wrote not advertised for sale but if they meet what the buyer is interested in then my properties are shown.  Everything is for sale if the price is right, even if not advertised.  Hope that clears it up for you.

    Profile photo of crashycrashy
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    I think admin has "got some splaining to do"

    no, really

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    crashy wrote:
    I think admin has "got some splaining to do"

    no, really

    Have you ever been a mod or ran a forum? it's your forum – you can pretty much do what you want.

    Not saying that deleting posts because of an agenda is honest or ethical but it is the owners forum to do with as they choose.

    Scamps posts drew me here and to the GHPC forums, everyone remembers that he was preaching the crash a year or 2 back. By the same token, everyone with half a brain could see it coming. Unsustainable bubbles always burst.

    Oh, C2, if you are getting good offers in this market – why don't you sell? It's going to get worse, make yourself more liquid now. My 2 cents.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:

    Scamps posts drew me here and to the GHPC forums, everyone remembers that he was preaching the crash a year or 2 back.

    Scamp was preaching the garbage he read on ghpc and they were preaching the same thing since before the last boom.Sooner or later they were due to get something right but even recent 2005 posts are laughable when you look at property markets other then Sydney. 
    Btw, do you get the impression that the sub $500k market in ACT is picking up ? Lots of Under Offer and Sold on re.com since the start of this year.

    Quote:

    By the same token, everyone with half a brain could see it coming.

    That explains it, we'll need a lobotomy or we'll never see it.  

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    harb wrote:
    Btw, do you get the impression that the sub $500k market in ACT is picking up ? Lots of Under Offer and Sold on re.com since the start of this year.

    There seems to be a bottleneck around 350-400k southside at the moment. 4 beddys on 700m2 blocks are almost good value for money (many being advertised around 390k and probably selling around 370) but the 3 beddys on similar sized land has yet to adjust. The land component is still overvalued and the 3 beddys will drop some more before this year is out.

    I watch allhomes mainly and there are numerous under offers but many of those are also falling through. The grant increases seem to be getting a lot of FHBs to put offers in but less, it seems, are actually getting approved. I have seen a couple of properties under offer one month, gone for a couple of weeks and then back up at the same price or less a month later.

    All that said, there are still more coming on than what are going under offer, prices aren't going up and my deposit is ever increasing…

    BTW back – hows Perth doing:)

    Profile photo of bardonbardon
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    Scamp wrote:
    I was looking for my previous posts , only to find that they all got deleted.
    A shame, because there was some very interesting reading and warnings in there, also some nice replies from people. It was titled something like "Do not invest now, the property market is crashing" and was posted about a year ago.

    I wonder why an investment forum would have deleted that post…

    Hey Scamp I remember some of your predictions on that thread eg ever increasing IR's, the mega bust in Sep 08, peak oil and a few more. Maybe just as well that they have dematerialised. 

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:

    All that said, there are still more coming on than what are going under offer, prices aren't going up and my deposit is ever increasing…

    Talking of prices not going up, I came across a February 2006 report and was surprised by the increase in the median prices in most cities since then.  I was under the impression that Perth was the only one to go up noticeably since 2006 and even that by only about $50K, specially since Perth was the last one to boom until mid 2007 with 2008 being a flat or down year for most cities.
     
    http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/media_release/Home%20Price%20Guide%20Media%20Release%200206.pdf
     
    Makes reading the old 2005 predictions on  D&G Central even more hilarious. 

    Quote:
    BTW back – hows Perth doing:)

    Better then expected considering all that D&G about resources in the papers. The low end of the market seems to be making a slow start and land sales in the cut priced sub $200k market has been picking up but unfortunately the price was not all they cut last year, now  we probably have the smallest blocks of land releases anywhere in Australia. 

    Profile photo of bardonbardon
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    Harb,  The Fin review had the complete listing of all postcodes from that report and yes it wasn't bad at all, all of mine got single digit growth last calendar year and forecast to flatline this year.  I made up my mind at Christmas that I am keeping everything I got houses and sahres its definetly about time in market for me.  If I was to sell I would only get toey and go again and cop transactions costs and take the risk of not picking the right suburb in the short term.

    In fact I have started window shopping in Northern NSW for a buy/hold and move into later when I get out of the rat race.  The AFR also said that Northern NSW still a strong growth area, I was surprised how high the rents are . Found some reaaly nice big props with decent land but will probably take a year of checking things out before I move.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    harb wrote:
    Talking of prices not going up, I came across a February 2006 report and was surprised by the increase in the median prices in most cities since then.  I was under the impression that Perth was the only one to go up noticeably since 2006 and even that by only about $50K, specially since Perth was the last one to boom until mid 2007 with 2008 being a flat or down year for most cities.

    Nah, Adelaide was the last big boom – will hurt equal to, if not harder than Perth by the time it is all done and dusted. Canberra and Darwin prices were also increasing dramatically into 2007. Sydney is the only place that has really stagnated since 2006.

    harb wrote:
    Better then expected considering all that D&G about resources in the papers. The low end of the market seems to be making a slow start and land sales in the cut priced sub $200k market has been picking up but unfortunately the price was not all they cut last year, now  we probably have the smallest blocks of land releases anywhere in Australia.

    So basically, they are trying to sell less for more and wonder why it isn't really going off? I went back to Perth twice last year – it's grown quite a lot but property prices in places like Manduarah were out of control.

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:

    Nah, Adelaide was the last big boom – will hurt equal to, if not harder than Perth by the time it is all done and dusted.

    Believe it or not I've heard that a few times before and the only people hurting were the ones that didn't participate in the boom or the people who joined in the boom right at the peak and had to wait a few years before seeing any gains.

    harb wrote:
    So basically, they are trying to sell less for more and wonder why it isn't really going off? I went back to Perth twice last year – it's grown quite a lot but property prices in places like Manduarah were out of control.

    Prices around Mandurah have backed off a bit in the past 12 months but the freeway extension when completed later this year may help them recover the recent loses. . You can still get  something like a 200sqm+  almost new double brick home on a 600sqm+  block of land in a new suburb like Lakelands, 5 minutes to the beautiful sandy  beaches or a golf course, easy freeway access and 10-15 minutes drive  from your job in the Kwinana or Bibra Lake industrial areas all from around $350K. Or a  20 years brick oldie in nearby suburbs from around $250k. Compare that to what you get in the Eastern states for that kind of money and  you can see that it represents excellent value for money.  I don't know what you mean by prices out of control.

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    Many of the houses I track have 'sold' and 'under offer' and 'successfully sold at auction' just to reappear under another add 2 days later, FOR A LOWER PRICE.
    'sold' my ass… Instead of deleting the add and recreating it, they just fake the statistics by putting 'sold' on it.

    It's all a big scam, and it's all falling apart. And Harb, I feel sorry for you if you own property in Perth.

    C2, can you post your houses on this forum with your prices so we can take a look at them and see for ourselves ? See, I have trouble believing people when they say "my houses gone up 20%" while we're in a severe recession and economic malaise ( not to say 'depression' ).

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    Scamp wrote:

    It's all a big scam, and it's all falling apart. And Harb, I feel sorry for you if you own property in Perth.

    Thanks Scamp.

    Quote:
    C2, can you post your houses on this forum with your prices so we can take a look at them and see for ourselves ? See, I have trouble believing people when they say "my houses gone up 20%" while we're in a severe recession and economic malaise ( not to say 'depression' ).

    What, only 20% ?

    Have a look at the median price for our capital cities here,

    http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/media_release/Home%20Price%20Guide%20Media%20Release%200206.pdf

    then go back over all that D&G that your buddies posted back in 2005 both here and on ghpc . They also had trouble believing in the beginning, now they have progressed and are in complete and total denial.   Even medication won't help them anymore.  

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