All Topics / General Property / Should I be buying now?

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  • Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    Scamp wrote:
    devo76 wrote:
    Just remember oil was going to be $2.00 bucks a litre  now. OOPS its droped.
    Interest rates will not drop. They will go up.   OOOPS there dropping

    Everytime the gloomers predict something it changes and they have a excuse for the change. Boring

    they will get it right eventually and i believe they will with lower house values but

    50% drop average  NO
    Depression   NO
    Collapse the dollar currency NO
    Head to the hills with your bag of seeds   NO

    These are the rants of a delusional mind. There like ogres huddled around a campfire predicting doom.
    Things will get rough and they will have there moment in the sun( Or dark depending on there mood)
    Then things will get back to normal and they will jump on the next impending earth killer.  YAWN.

    AUD dollar is collapsing as we speak. Are you blind ? the dollar went from near 1 USD to 70USD.
    It will drop more now that the RBA lowered 1% interest. Please do your homework before you post something. That's a 30% drop in the AUD dollar. If that's not a crash then please, tell me what is.

    Inflation ( not CPI ) in Australia is close to 15% now. That's rampant. Just check your food bills compared to last year. Please don't tell me you don't pay at LEAST 15% more, because you do.

    Oil will be 2$ per litre. Especially with the 30 drop in AUD dollar and what's still to come. Fuel might be lower now, the only reason is that recession is hitting the world.

    About the depression : Just hope you don't get there. Because recession is a 100% certainty. Ignoring this won't make it go away.

    50% houseprice drop : Did I say it would drop 50% in less than 6 months ? Ofcourse not. In fact, I told you that the bottom would certainly not be earlier than January 2009, and with the recent actions by RBA and government, it will take longer because now it changed to a recession instead of an economic dip.
    You will see, 50% houseprice drop will happen.

    Dropping interestrates : Yes you are right, I predicted interest rates to go up and they SHOULD have gone up, but they went down. This is completely illogical and has caught most economists by surprise. The drops so far in interest have resulted in a 30% ( !!!!! ) drop in the AUD and it just shows that the RBA has no clue on what they are doing. They have a different agenda. Do you think the AUD dropping is a good thing ? Think again. The drop in the AUD is going to cause massive problems for Australia in the short / medium AND long term.

    Mind you : Dropping interest rates is done for a reason. In 1990 ( you remember, than recession Australia had to have ) RBA dropped interest rates like this. It caused 20% unemployment and loads of trouble for Australia.

    Please, don't speak about things you have no clue about. If you think you were right with the drops of interest rates, this is a very short term, PANIC ACTION by the RBA.

    House prices will now, more than ever, and with 100% certainty , drop 50%.

    There is no doubt. Recession is coming, commodities ( australia's main export product ) have already crashed on top of 30% loss of the AUD dollar. I'm just telling you like it is, nothing different.

    By the way, I'll let you in on a secret on the real reason the RBA has dropped the interest rates.
    Mortgage resets.

    And guess what ? people won't 'save 200$ per month'. They will go from their locked in low interestrates of 6% to the 'new' interestrates of 8%. They will actually have to pay 400$ MORE than before. Thanks to the mortgage resets.

    The RBA just wanted to make the blow a little less bad.
    Instead of going from 6% to 9%, they will now go from 6% to 8%.
    And the RBA has destroyed the only thing the Australians had ( their strong AUD )  by doing it.

    Please read what I wrote up here twice before you reply.

    OK. 90% of the crap you just said i made no reference too.Aussie dollar crashing. Did i make reference to that???

    Inflation ??? I said nothing about that.

    Fuel will be $2 a litre. Well thats a bit open ended. I bet it will be $4 a litre one day too.
    Economists didnt predict the rate movement. But that was the amount not the direction that caught them out.

    My point is clear. You come on hear and start vomiting up your take on things and pass it off as 100% fact.
    Many of your so called facts have prooved to be wrong over the last few months.So what do you do. You readjust your doom calculater and vomit up a new spin on things.You do not 100% know what is going to happen as you keep saying.Your strike rate is getting worse each day.Yes we are in for a rough patch with dropping house values and a weaker economy. Bit shit that is like standing at the beach and claiming that the tide will come back in eventually. Tell us something we dont know. The rest of what you are saying is purly a estimated guess. NOT FACT.
    Maybe you should offer your services to solve the worlds problems. Its always times like this that the armchair heroes come out to play.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Devo,

    I understand some of your opposition to Scamp over-zealous doom and glooming but how can one derive FACT in a world where finacial gain is fueled largely by spin and specualation. The fact that there are no hard FACTS is very much part of the problem.

    You know want I want, I want the tide to come back with quite a bit less money in it so we can all stop pretending that affluence matters and get back to being decent people. But like everyone else, any arguments that support it are still mostly specualation. In the same way that REAs boosting the market, die hard property optimists like harb and even balanced views like yours are still speculation,

    True, we don't know how it is all going to play out but most would have to admit that what the financial world is up against now is worse than any of us have seen in our adult lifetimes.

    Profile photo of ErikHErikH
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    Some more on the AUD (courtesy of CBA):

    The AUD often trades as a "barometer of global financial market sentiment". When financial market sentiment turns to panic, the AUD gets oversold.

    The reasons why the AUD gets sold are understandable*. What is less understandable is why the AUD gets oversold. The main reason why the AUD gets oversold is because the AUD is a very liquid currency. And due to the make-up of Australia's exports (more than 60% are commodities and exports make up some 22% of the economy), the AUD can often trade as a proxy for commodity prices and as a proxy for global growth estimates. The AUD can also trade as a proxy for Asia, a proxy for current account deficit countries, and as a proxy for Australia's economy. Overwhelming uncertainty in any of these areas can result in large falls in the AUD because participants can usually orchestrate the necessary volume of trade through the AUD currency market, whether they are leveraged or not.

    When panic sets in, a circuit-breaker is needed. The larger than expected 100 basis point reduction in the RBA's cash rate, bringing the official rate to 6.0% is a prudent move and has, for now, provided a circuit-breaker. It demonstrates the RBA is able to take leadership when panic sets in and do what is required when growth risks are skewed heavily to the downside because of global financial market movements. But it is important to note that recent gains in the AUD from this morning's Sydney low have also reflected a weaker USD. The RBA's move has sparked the possibility that large and co-ordinated central bank interest cuts could be forthcoming and given non-USD currencies a temporary boost. The fact that the AUD is higher on the cross rates illustrates that participants have, for now, positively endorsed the RBA's leading and prudent move.

    It is too early to be sure that global financial market panic has completely subsided. Until we can comfortably come to that conclusion, the risk to the AUD remains to the downside. When panic sets in, it tends to matter little that the AUD has fallen nearly 10% in one day. Or within a whisker of its record low vis-à-vis the EUR** and lower than the levels traded during the 2001 global recession the 1997-98 Asia crisis. Arguably the current credit crisis is much worse and so more downside should be anticipated, whether it comes in panic moves or not. 


    *Reasons why the AUD is falling

    (1) The AUD is an extremely liquid currency. According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the AUD/USD exchange rate is the 4th most liquid currency in the world. Australia's financial markets are deep and among the most sophisticated in the world. Hence participants can get pricing for large volume trades.

    (2) Australia's exports make up approx 22% of the economy and commodities make up the bulk (approx 60%) of Australia's exports. Participants take the view that as global growth estimates get revised down, commodity prices will fall and Australia's exports and economy will slow. Putting large downward pressure on commodity prices, is the high possibility of a technical recession in the US, Eurozone and Japan. Indeed, a global recession is certainly a real possibility. Because the AUD is a very liquid currency, participants can ride the slowing global growth-commodity price cycle by selling the AUD.

    (3) In times of risk aversion, the currencies of current account deficit countries tend to get sold and the currencies of current account surplus countries tend to get bought. Rising credit costs raise the costs of funding current account deficits, even if the ability to fund the deficit is not directly under the threat. Nevertheless, rising risk aversion leads participants to avoid the additional risk that current account deficit's bring to the equation, by selling the AUD.

    (4) As global growth slows, the RBA reduces interest rates to insulate Australia's economy from the slowing global environment.  Unless the current account deficit falls at the same time, the risk premium on Australia's interest rates is effectively reduced as interest rates fall. Hence, a lower AUD is required to compensate incoming investors willing to fund the current account deficit, for the lower interest rate (risk premium) environment.

    (5) The USD is rising because demand for USD has increased exponentially as local US banks and foreign banks with US$ loan exposure scramble to appropriately match US$ denominated funding requirements (matching US$ assets and liabilities) and support US$ denominated capital adequacy ratios. Consequently, US institutions with an offshore presence are repatriating USD and foreign institutions with local exposure in the US are gathering USD to meet US$ funding requirements. The USD is also rising because the US authorities are seen to be addressing the credit crisis. There is a perception that the US economy, first into the downturn is likely to be first out. Certainly the US economy recorded stronger GDP growth than most of the industrialised world in Q2. While Q3 growth is less certain, large interest rate cuts are expected from the ECB and BoE putting downward pressure on those currencies, as their respective authorities grapple to deal with the credit crisis. A stronger USD is putting downward pressure on the AUD.

    ** Since the introduction of the euro in January 1999, the record low has been 0.5175. If we use a proxy for EUR (pre 1999), the record low is 0.4902, reached in September 1992.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    ummester wrote:
    Devo,

    I understand some of your opposition to Scamp over-zealous doom and glooming but how can one derive FACT in a world where finacial gain is fueled largely by spin and specualation. The fact that there are no hard FACTS is very much part of the problem.

    You know want I want, I want the tide to come back with quite a bit less money in it so we can all stop pretending that affluence matters and get back to being decent people. But like everyone else, any arguments that support it are still mostly specualation. In the same way that REAs boosting the market, die hard property optimists like harb and even balanced views like yours are still speculation,
    This is my point exactly. There are no facts for what is going to happen in the future. When a newbie enters this site looking for info. I believe they should hear from both sides. That consists of facts,past history,relevent news and happenings and peoples ideas on what will happen next. But when they are bombed with information and told it 100% will happen. I do not believe that is right. When a individual from another country starts to tell someone there $500,000 house will be worth less than half in a year. I believe that to be wrong. Sure by all means explain why you believe this could happen but  keep it real.

    True, we don't know how it is all going to play out but most would have to admit that what the financial world is up against now is worse than any of us have seen in our adult lifetimes.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    ummester wrote:
    Devo,

    I understand some of your opposition to Scamp over-zealous doom and glooming but how can one derive FACT in a world where finacial gain is fueled largely by spin and specualation. The fact that there are no hard FACTS is very much part of the problem.

    You know want I want, I want the tide to come back with quite a bit less money in it so we can all stop pretending that affluence matters and get back to being decent people. But like everyone else, any arguments that support it are still mostly specualation. In the same way that REAs boosting the market, die hard property optimists like harb and even balanced views like yours are still speculation,

    This is my point exactly. There are no facts for what is going to happen in the future. When a newbie enters this site looking for info. I believe they should hear from both sides. That consists of facts,past history,relevent news and happenings and peoples ideas on what will happen next. But when they are bombed with information and told it 100% will happen. I do not believe that is right. When a individual from another country starts to tell someone there $500,000 house will be worth less than half in a year. I believe that to be wrong. Sure by all means explain why you believe this could happen but  keep it real.

    Profile photo of god_of_moneygod_of_money
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    I thought that few months ago.. SCAMP was predicting the interest rates are hitting through the roof…ie. 10% or above… (look at his/her past review).. but it is now heading towards 5%… WRONG prediction again… !!!

    Sure we are not sure the bottom end of this crisis.. but I bet that we are closer to the bottom end than 12-18 months ago… If all ords can fall another 2000 points reaching 2400… Australia's economy will need to grow at least -100% (i.e. tsunami hitting major east cost cities)

    Profile photo of harbharb
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    ummester wrote:
    I understand some of your opposition to Scamp over-zealous doom and glooming but how can one derive FACT in a world where finacial gain is fueled largely by spin and specualation.

    You can't really blame Scamp for all that doom and gloom, after all he is just regurgitating the stuff that he reads on the other forum without realizing that he is not getting a balance view in there.

    Quote:
    In the same way that REAs boosting the market, die hard property optimists like harb and even balanced views like yours are still speculation,

    I like that, a die hard property optimist.
    That's funny because up to 6 months ago the wife would call me a stock market junkie.

    Quote:
    True, we don't know how it is all going to play out but most would have to admit that what the financial world is up against now is worse than any of us have seen in our adult lifetimes.

    Life is good, there is nothing you can do about the situation in the financial world so why worry about nothing and give yourself an ulcer ?  

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    TheYoungInvestor wrote:
    So should the property investors in sydney wait for a couple of more months before the prices really drop? Or you can start buying now because it's the right time?

    I keep getting confused is it the right time to invest or wait?

    Don't worry it's confusing for anyone right now .
    I actually came back to soften this post but with Sydney though – definitely wouldn't if I were you.
    I just think it has to go down and quite a bit yet as it is so dear . You could save a fortune just by waiting 12 mths.
    Cheers

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    harb wrote:
    Life is good, there is nothing you can do about the situation in the financial world so why worry about nothing and give yourself an ulcer ?  

    I won't get an ulcer about financial collapse – it's exactly what I've been waiting for, remember. The less money drives descision making in Australia, the better as far as I am concerned. I get ulcers when it looks like the market is recovering:)

    So I guess for me, at the moment, life is doubley good.

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Mister wrote:
    TheYoungInvestor wrote:
    So should the property investors in sydney wait for a couple of more months before the prices really drop? Or you can start buying now because it's the right time?

    I keep getting confused is it the right time to invest or wait?

    Don't worry it's confusing for anyone right now .
    I actually came back to soften this post but with Sydney though – definitely wouldn't if I were you.
    I just think it has to go down and quite a bit yet as it is so dear . You could save a fortune just by waiting 12 mths.
    Cheers

    It's confusing to KRudd also, check this out –

    At 2.55 it was really bad, bad, bad, bad

    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24469483-462,00.html

    At 8.27 we aren't heading for recession, it's not a nightmare and Krudd isn't a commentator…. hmmm

    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24472400-31037,00.html

    Mister is right,

    Property may not go down any more (though I specualte otherwise) but the chances of it going up by a substansial amount over the next 12 months are definately less likely.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    All crap aside. These are very interesting times and if you are under 30 you are about to see a environment that who have not seen before. Am i worried. Yes. It would be stupid not to be. Am i happy with my position. Yes. I have a good buffer,secure job,50% LVR and loans approved to buy more if a bargain appears.Fact is life goes on,Bad times pass. You must look at this as a time to keep safe but also look for opportunities.

    And also dont forget to enjoy what this country has to offer outside of investing. You dont have to be rich to enjoy everything.Although i did just buy a 996 ducati yesterday. Man i love this bike. :)

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    devo76 wrote:
    All crap aside. These are very interesting times and if you are under 30 you are about to see a environment that who have not seen before. Am i worried. Yes. It would be stupid not to be. Am i happy with my position. Yes. I have a good buffer,secure job,50% LVR and loans approved to buy more if a bargain appears.Fact is life goes on,Bad times pass. You must look at this as a time to keep safe but also look for opportunities.

    And also dont forget to enjoy what this country has to offer outside of investing. You dont have to be rich to enjoy everything.Although i did just buy a 996 ducati yesterday. Man i love this bike. :)

    I like the Ducati. Is that the one with the tailpipe under the seat ? ( and a low humming noise ).
    Very nice bike indeed. I'm more of a chopper guy though. A fatboy or a road king for me :)

    Yes, you're right, there's plenty of other things to do. I'm not going to warn people anymore about buying. If they want to buy, then please, let them. Dow crashed another 7% today by the way, these are very interesting times. Loads of money to be made if you take some risks. But for me , time has come to go kitesurfing and windsurfing at 'some' beach in Australia ( probably Stockton Beach ).

    Profile photo of MasterRELMasterREL
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    devo76 wrote:
    .Although i did just buy a 996 ducati yesterday. Man i love this bike. :)

    You lucky bugger, did you buy red so it would go faster. Unfortunately I had to sell my bike(not enough use), old age, nagging wife, and children catch up with you.

    Profile photo of WJ HookerWJ Hooker
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    Scamp wrote.
    I'm not going to warn people anymore about buying

    O no. I don't believe it?? This forum won't be the same, we need your input to set everyone off.

    I'm sure he is just kidding.

    Profile photo of devo76devo76
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    Scamp wrote:
    devo76 wrote:
    All crap aside. These are very interesting times and if you are under 30 you are about to see a environment that who have not seen before. Am i worried. Yes. It would be stupid not to be. Am i happy with my position. Yes. I have a good buffer,secure job,50% LVR and loans approved to buy more if a bargain appears.Fact is life goes on,Bad times pass. You must look at this as a time to keep safe but also look for opportunities.

    And also dont forget to enjoy what this country has to offer outside of investing. You dont have to be rich to enjoy everything.Although i did just buy a 996 ducati yesterday. Man i love this bike. :)

    I like the Ducati. Is that the one with the tailpipe under the seat ? ( and a low humming noise ).
    Very nice bike indeed. I'm more of a chopper guy though. A fatboy or a road king for me :)

    Yes, you're right, there's plenty of other things to do. I'm not going to warn people anymore about buying. If they want to buy, then please, let them. Dow crashed another 7% today by the way, these are very interesting times. Loads of money to be made if you take some risks. But for me , time has come to go kitesurfing and windsurfing at 'some' beach in Australia ( probably Stockton Beach ).

    Thats the one. Jap performance with the style of a harley. Tough v twin. Plus if you buy the right model they are actually going up in value.I have nice mountains plus coastal roads close buy. Great area to ride. I was lucky as Australian muscle cars also experianced a boom over the last few years allowing me to make over $100,000 profit from a old commodore. I bought a nice bike and put the rest of my loans.This weekend im going fishing off shore, then a party at a friends. Tomorrow im skydiving then taking my dirt bike bush out to a old Mining town a few klms away. life is good.

    Profile photo of coalstarcoalstar
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    if you swim with all the other fish you  will die/eaten up. be a shark.
    who gives a shit who owns the rba or how low the dollar and interest rates fall or the dow reaches 5000 points.
    history tells us inflation increases, shares slump, interest rates fall, yields. increase, property becomes more affordable etc.
    As investors, the worst thing that could of happened is the rba cutting interest by a full 1%. This will limit our buying power time and quicken the next property boom. it might take 1-2 years for the cycle to start a steep upward trend but it will def happen.
    Property fundamentals at the moment are extremely strong. massive undersupply, increasing population, billions and billions of dollars of infrustructure investment, increasing rental yields.
    this is not the nineteen thirties when ppl were getting around on push bikes we survived on damper and pies!!
    IMO buy discounted, smart, obscure properties, reno, strata, add value, increse rents, create equity and hold on to your seat for the biggest property boom in Australias history in the next 5 or so years.

    http://www.amatecon.com/gd/gdcandc.html

    Depression??  25% unemplyment rates, rba raising interest  rates when the economies contracting, selling gold to increase liquidity, calm down ppl

    Profile photo of ummesterummester
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    Alani, we have already seen the biggest property boom in Australia's history and that was bigger than future growth can support. Unless wages double in the next 10 years it is very unlikely that we will see another boom bigger than we just have.

    If there are such undersupply issues, why is so much stock for sale?

    It is true, however, that in 5 years or so prices should start rising agin from whatever place they bottom out at over the next 2.

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    ummester wrote:
    Unless wages double in the next 10 years it is very unlikely that we will see another boom bigger than we just have.

    I don't know about a bigger boom but wages are on their way to at least double over the next 10 years. It only takes a few 8%+ pay rises and over a 10 years period the wages have doubled. The fact is that under Howard & Keating governments workers have been bullshitted and told that asking for a payrise is bad for them because it would cause inflation problems and interest rate rises. The wages did not keep up with the cost of living yet the low wages for workers didn't stop food prices, fuel, rates, rents or house prices spiraling out of control. I think we'll start to see more industrial unrest soon and demand for much higher pay increases then we've seen in the past.

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    businessglobal wrote:
    There is never really a right or wrong time to buy, it depends on the deal, your strategy, goals and financial circumstances. The last few months I have purchased 15 properties, and building a few homes also, and the buying has been very good, and decent margin in all of the purchases. A lot of it comes down to finding the deals, contacts, strategy. There are always good buys in the market, but you must be ready, finance approved or cash, short clauses, quick settlements,and know your market inside out where you are buying.

    I have been in property  for nearly 15 years now, and found the last few months has been some fantastic opportunities out there, dont follow the sheep and run for the hills afraid, research, speak to highly specialised people, investors buying up now, speak to buyers agents, advisors, valuers, and switched on agents to gather your info, and facts.

    Always make sure you have enough cash to back you up if needed, dont buy others problems if you dont know how to fix then, no matter how cheap and try to learn from others that know or own more than you.

    Goodluck- assess each deal on its merits, location, price, value, potential, demand and pain thresh hold – if you can hold in worst case scenario, then it can only get better.

    Watch the flow of money, I am fortunate I know a lot of greeks, lebanese, italians and have a lot in my family so I watch and listen to whats going on, where, and try to learn from others that have been doing property nearly 40- 50 years.

    Stay positive, and if something doesn't feel right, well don't do it, there are opportunite's out there daily, you just have to get off the phone, net, out of the cafe, unchain yourself from the office desk and pound the streets looking for opportunities and talking to the locals and ask lots of questions to educate yourself whats really going on in the market, and where the deals are.

    Bye-

      hi i like your posts you have your head still on top of your shoulders and your doing things in the way that you will not loose

    not like some of these negative people on here most of you talk a whole lotta shit.

    if i listened to people as i was growing up i would probaly be broke today. don't start your own business you have a good job yea what making $12.50 per hour. don't expand your business but i did and doubled my profits. then those same people were saying don't sell your business your doing so well but i did because i could see the economy was going to crap out and it has and the work has dried up. then people said dont move to oz why not the weather is better and i go there for 2 months a year for a holiday. ok then you want to transfer all your nz cash over to oz if you dont you will loose thousands and if i do ile loose thousands so what did i do transfered enough to set my self up buy a car furniture and have a little play money but that transer hurt 79cents to the dollar then i sat and watched the housing market as well as the exchange rates what happend the exchange rate got good for me 90 cents to the dollar then droped to 87cents o shit o well ile catch it next time ile lock in 92 cents it mite bounce back and it did on saturday.
    so i beleive do whats best for you and don't always take other peoples advice most of them havn't done it them selves so how would they no if its going to work or not

    my 2cents with the economy 30% drop in house prices from its peak give or take depending on where you are in oz. you may see the odd 50% drop if a fool paid way to much when it peaked. i looked at a bunch of industrial units 3 months ago and offered 35% less than the asking price it was refused so i walked away ive just been offered them for 20% below what they wanted i turned it down an will now sit and wait till they realy hurt as they have not leased any of them or sold any of them in 3 months

    hopefully you under stood most of this my writing aint the best since i left school at 13
    thanks for reading

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    I agree to most of them on this post, its not the right to buy unless u come across a real Bargain. With predictions of further price drops, I personally would hang on for few more months.

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