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  • Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    @hwd007
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    Supply and demand is true, however interest rates surely play a part in supply and demand as would any other cost factors. I would also say that interest rates play a significant role in affordability or debt serviceability for many people, but again are linked to demand. Lower rates could mean increased demand which in turn may put upward pressure on property prices.

    I accept that if interest rates were 0% then it would be purely demand for limited housing. But if you made interest rates 30% many people would not be able to service the loan repayments at given property values, relative to their disposable incomes.

    This would put downward pressure on demand for purchasing houses as opposed to renting. This downward pressure would then translate to slower property price growth or even negative price growth, depending on the degree of pressure and other pertaining cost and income factors in the market.

    Without knowing the specifics, 12% interest rates may not have been sufficient to dampen demand sufficiently enough at that time, for house prices to stop rising. But eventually if either house prices or interest rates reach a certain point, demand would slow. This is because as the cost of debt servicability rises, there would be fewer and fewer prople with disposable incomes sufficient to meet the loan repayments.

    The reality is that debt serviceability is a function of several variables. Mainly being 1. House Pricing, 2. Disposable Income, 3. Interest Rates

    A $100K home at 10% interest will cost as much to service the debt as a $200K home at 5% interest i.e. It would cost me $191.79 in interest per week, assuming interest only IP.

    So clearly the debt serviceability would remain the same on both investments. This is assuming that debt serviceability is the major impediment to buying property, rather than price alone. I would assume this to be the case as you could always afford the repayments even if it took a lifetime to pay off.

    Even I could afford a 1 million dollar property if interest rates were 1% It would cost me $191.79 in interest per week, which happens to be the same cost in interest as the other two examples I gave above. This would mean that many people like me on slightly above average incomes could afford to buy 1 million dollar IP homes.

    The problem is that this would then increase demand for these types of homes and hence prices, until affordability at even 1% rates become a problem for people like me. So clearly interest rates and incomes play an important part in demand for housing at certain prices.

    Also interest rates play a factor in serviceability of debt and hence affordability relative to disposable incomes and hence demand.

    In fact supply and demand for loans at certain rates will effect supply and demand for houses at certain prices, as most people require loans to buy houses.

    Affordability and hence demand, is a function of debt, interest rates and available disposable income.

    There may be many short term micro effects to changes in market conditions, but ultimately when all changes are complete and the dust settles, the market would move toward some form of equilibrium, where in consideration of all relevant variables, supply meets demand.

    In answer to the question, I think any of the pertaining variables, but particularly the big 3 identified being prices, income and rates could create a downturn. Remember that there is usually a lag time between action and market reaction.

    So if for example, any of the variables changed by say 25% or more, one may eventually see the market reaction to such change. But there is no magic number, as there are so many variables that can effect demand and to some extent supply.

    The other thing is speculation about what is likely to happen. Once people start to panic this it self can cause a correction if they try to offload property that they can no longer afford to hold due to higher rates against rents. On the other hand buyers may also become reluctant to buy at current prices and rates.

    This may result in supply at a given price exceeding demand for property at that price, in terms of property cost, rates and available income. This could cause sellers to get nervous and dump property at lower prices which may eventually bridge the supply demand gap and then stabalise demand and supply at lower prices for a while.

    Many factors to consider clearly.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    They appear to advocate cash positive investments, and bulk buying power and reduced purchasing overheads. In theory it sounds good. In practice, I have no idea. The quality of property also I am not clear on.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    I accept the points raised and they have merit. I guess its all a question of degrees and sustainability with minimal impact on lifestyle and environment.

    I generally don’t agree with high density though. I don’t think I mentioned that I favored it. But on the other hand some people seem to like it as a life style, then others have little choice due to cost. So horses for courses I guess in the end.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    [8D]

    In consolidating the previous posts in a more definitive sense, I add the following.

    responsible = being accountable for your actions, successful or otherwise.

    successful = end goal achieved, responsibly or otherwise.

    Thus you can be “responsible” or “irresponsible” in process and still achieve your end goal or otherwise. Then it may become a matter of conscience and or financial success or failure.

    Or you can be “successful” or “unsuccessful” in end goal, yet have been responsible in process, or otherwise. Then it may become a matter of conscience and or financial success or failure.

    The two terms are not essentially inclusive, however could be seen to form a more realistic measure of overall success on a more holistic scale. i.e. also qualitative and not just quantitative.

    We have a 4 state binary condition here. Basically represented by two bits of information each represented by two recognized states, one being the affirmative and one being the negative, be them to some degree subjective in interpretation. [:D]

    Clearly the two words go hand in hand and in process, can have wide sweeping impacts on ourselves and on those with whom we interact, on one level or another.

    [;)]

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    I wouldn’t touch them with a barge pole.

    good luck.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    largely depends on your circumstances, but general IPs are interest only, until you have paid out your home mortgage in full.

    cheers.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    Hmm, you say you have $250,000 Am I mistaken ? Well lucky you either way !, go buy yourself a brand new investment property. Go passed GO and collect positive or neutral cashflow.

    Forget about buying some old dump and doing it up. Also again if you must buy with your father, buy brand new and forget all about rennos. It’s much simpler, nothing to do no rennos. If you have $250K you can structure it cash positive or cash neutral at your choice. Plus you get good capital growth.

    Or did you mean you can borrow up to $250,000 ? in which case buying the older property makes more sense, but still I prefer new for less hassle. I’m not sure what you meant.

    just one thing, when ever you find your dream IP, get it independantly valued by a professional.

    Go to it now kid ! [8D]

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    Wally I see ur point about being responsible. I guess Trevor Hendy would say, well if you understand how the tide flows and know how to handle the rip, then you can go where others fear to swim with safety and confidence. You can even swim with the sharks, so long as you know when they were last well fed. [:D] And Renee would say and thats no Gobbldy Gook ! But then look where it left him :/ yet some how it seems the slippery fish still got away.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    Hmm, if you intend selling it, then why dont you just get your family member to sell it and give you the profit ? hehe. seems much simpler.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    On a more philosophical slant, If you are happy for the rest of your life, one could make a case that you invested responsibly. Some may say that if one leaves this world in a “better” state than when they entered it, they invested responsibly. Some people say wealth is a state of mind. [8)]

    In answer to the post, for me, “successful” investing could be differentiated from “responsible” investing. Again both quite subjective as most things qualitative generally seem to be.

    One could be “responsible” but less “successful” and vice versa or both or neither. Yet one could also see the two words as meaning the same or going hand in hand.

    One could be more pragmatic or more philosophical in ones interpretation. At the end of it all, one is left either happy or unhappy or somewhere in between, depending on ones perspective.

    In a general sense, the term “responsible investing” even pertaining to property, can take of a broad context of meaning. I think one has to find their own peace, with whatever they do in life, some of which may include, responsible investing.

    More pragmaticly and again in awnser to the posed question, how would it change my life if I were successful in property investing ? Hmm, I think for me it could buy me time to persue things that I may otherwise not have time to do. That said, some say there’s no time like the present. Make of that what you will.

    I suspect this could apply to many of us. It seems to me that as one gets older, time can seem to become more important, as clearly life in this conscious world seems finite.

    I know that probably didn’t answer much, but well it just came to mind, thus I thought I would offer a different slant for variety and perspective.

    [;)]

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    I think all these areas offer good growth in the long term. I can only suggest diversify your investment localities. buy some closer to CBD and some farther away. That’s what I’m going to do.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    To some extent that depends on you and your circumstances. That’s fine for some people.

    For me I want min hassle being interstate and new to the game etc… So I go for -ve cashflow high CG property in “good” areas, for piece of mind. I dont mind being out of pocket a bit. I see it as a kind of insurance payment to secure my ideal investment property, that I expect to pay dividends a few years down the track, once higher rents kick in.

    At present minimum hassle, time and convenience is more valuable to me, than saving a few dollars, though I still try to get the best return possible given the circumstances. I figure I can hold at least 3 quality IPs on -ve chashflow, before I need to rethink the strategy on the next one.

    good luck.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    Responsible Investing ? I guess its a bit like responsible driving ? know your road rules ( dos and don’ts ) know your vehicle ( what will fund your journey ) know your destination ( end goal ) and know how you intend getting there ( your road map or plan ) ? Know the road conditions ( wet & slippery and bumpy ? dry and hard and smooth ? )

    Finally know your driving limitations ( some of us are better or safer drivers than others ) Also know the limitations of your vehicle ( try not to recklessly drive it like an F1 racing car down city streets ) Manage your risks in the context of these limitations.

    Watch out for the pot holes, road work signs and strewn debris along the way. Try not to become a casualty and then a statistic.

    Drive Safely and with Caution !

    [:D]

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    thanx golfer
    good luck with your handicap. [;)]

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    Hi,

    Why dont you just tell me, since you bothered to find out. It would have added about 2 seconds to your post. [;)]

    a simple xx km would suffice, for those in the know.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    Terry, I’m looking North East or South East Brisbane 10 km to 20 km from the CBD. Most likely South East towards Manly. If I do this on my own then I’m looking at around $150K for the land for about 300 to 400 sqm and then another $150K for the two level townhouse. I’m thinking two bed plus ensuites and study with balcony or courtyard.

    Hmm thats optimistic as Masterton look more pricey, but good quality ! But these are full houses of good size, i.e. 387 sqm not sure if this is per unit or for the whole building.

    I’m thinking smaller scale of around the 120 sqm internal size per unit. I will find out what they can do for me.

    If I partner then looking at $250K say for 600 – 700 sqm for land. These are just guestimates. I’ve seen a few companies like Red Door and others, but as I said they seem so busy and don’t get back to me in a hurry.

    Basically I’m looking for a small projects management group from go to finish, including – planning, design, building, and legals, council liaison etc.. I know it adds to the cost, but being in Melbourne and inexperienced make any other way difficult. I would rather pay another $10K to have it professionally managed.

    I’m thinking of designing the floor plan myself so I hold copyright over it. Thus if they like it and want to re-use it I can negotiate a commission. Not that I have any experience in all of this, but I’ve seen some pretty average floor plans around and recon I could do better, given my limited market knowledge.

    cheers.
    David

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    KuRCe, thanks for your consideration. I am keen to read all thoughts on the matter. I have not made any plans yet. I’m hooked up with a tenant for $235 / week but it cost me $229K plus purchase costs taking the loan to around $238K

    I guess primarily the no 1. fix would be the 2nd bedroom / study relocation, so I could bump up the rent to say $270 / week. Not sure how much this would cost. I’m guessing around $5K, though it depends on the construction. slab could cost more I guess. Thus it could take a couple of years to pay itself off and a bit longer if we have to do something with the lighting such as adding the master bedroom windows or door windows you suggested.

    cheers,
    David

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    Terry thanks for your input and others. Yes it seems the next logical step for me, to get better returns on the investment. i.e. cashflow my way. I would rather be the developer myself.

    hehe

    Are there any designers and builders you can suggest for this small scale type development. They all seem hard to find, so busy I guess and have bigger projects to work on.

    cheers

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    Yes I agree if you can find a good one with a good reputation then its worth consdering, if you feel you still prefer guidance. Sounds like a great idea, but I would want to be certain the advocate is not getting a two way deal here with the vendor and you. But as suggested, I’m sure there are some good ones around.

    Though I still suggest an independant professional valuation on your first investment by a qualified and recognised valuer, when you are about to make the final choice, just as a saftey net. This could be viewd as part of due dilligence. You want the first one to be the right one.

    Once you become more savvy with the market and build trust relationships with vendors, you may prefer to bypass this step.

    Profile photo of hwd007hwd007
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    Thanks buddy. cheers and beers, but not too many. [;)]

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