[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 17, 2014 - 7:03 am

China's been struggling for the last 6 months with 2 attempts to ease their own QE. Both times the system had a near death experience. I've warned for more than 2 years now that China will collapse eventually under the weight of debt. (Growing at $200B/mth)

For the third time in 6 months the Chinese system faces a liquidity freeze after defaults start to materialise as their ponzi banking system where everyone secures everyones debt.

Chinese Stocks Tumble On Contagion Concerns From First Shadow-Banking Default

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 17, 2014 - 6:09 am

Worth a read… note that industrialised countries with affordable power generation are potentially the new manufacturing hubs albeit they will be almost totally robotisised and automated.

The Siren Song of the Robot

It may not be the boon we're counting on

by Gregor Macdonald

Tuesday, January 29, 2013, 12:03 PM

• Yet the success of American manufacturers has come at a cost. Factories have replaced millions of workers with machines. Even if you know the rough outline of this story, looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics data is still shocking. A historical chart of U.S. manufacturing employment shows steady growth from the end of the Depression until the early 1980s, when the number of jobs drops a little. Then things stay largely flat until about 1999. After that, the numbers simply collapse. In the 10 years ending in 2009, factories shed workers so fast that they erased almost all the gains of the previous 70 years; roughly one out of every three manufacturing jobs – about 6 million in total – disappeared.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 17, 2014 - 5:56 am

The evidence is irrefutable…

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 17, 2014 - 4:03 am

waydo77 wrote:

i dont believe the unemployment will be as bad as you believe. someone has to service these machines, install these machines, and put them out when they catch on fire.haha

The same thing happened when computers were invented, yet here we are still. 

I personally cant wait for the day when im sitting at a mates house, drinking beer and monitoring my 20 unmanned aerial vehicles deliver takeaway across australia for an income.

just my 7 bucks worth.

Japan's population decreases by around 200k per year yet their unemployment rate is stable around 4.5%. Australia needs to generate 1040 new jobs per day just to keep up with its net population growth (1.7%)

The problem with computers is that when they were invented they had minimal practical application. Now computing power is just starting to reach a point through miniaturation and processing power that enables a quantitative step towards greater automation. At some point creative destruction reaches a point that overtakes job creation. We are at that point now.

For an example of how your economy will change you need look no further than your rural hinterland. Mechanisation and automation do not produce much in the way of additional agricultural production but it does lower the cost through elimination of manual labor. The number of man hours required to produce x amount has been reduced by 80% over the last 50 years.

Terminator may have been a fictional sci-fi movie but many a true word is spoken in jest as they say. The reality is that we are so smart we are making ourselves redundant.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 17, 2014 - 3:24 am

engelorumora wrote:

How do people have the money to spend then??

Thanks

Grasshopper you are starting to see the problem then.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 16, 2014 - 5:36 am

jayhinrichs wrote:

So the point of the above is it all depends when you buy in the RE cycle. Now that Google, Facebook etc moved into Palo Alto that house could be 2 million in a year or two…

then you go to Alanta and 1.5 mil buys you a mansion like those you see in Hollywood Movies… So really depends on when where etc here in the US.

Go to France and buy a real mansion with for just a few mill

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 16, 2014 - 1:25 am

I always thought Wild Turkey was an apt name. Boot leather soaked in bilge water then strained through a hobo's jock strap.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 15, 2014 - 11:23 pm

jmsrachel wrote:

Freckle she'll be right mate. I've got my exit plan. If all fails declare bankruptcy and make my debt the banks problem.

Better to keep your leverage at a manageable level with a 40% asset contraction (buffer) and preserve your income streams. Crashes don't break people. Too much debt and debt servicing costs do. Address that issue and you ride out the busts and capatilise on the upside once things bottom out.

The world won't end (not for a while anyway) if 40% of people get wiped out and another 30% just survive. Effectively 60% of an economy is still functioning. The name of the game is to be in the 60% that survive.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 15, 2014 - 11:14 pm

You are extremely over optimistic on the US projections and probably under estimating your leverage on the AU side. You can make figures do what ever you want but reality will bring you back to earth or beak you if you want to use pie-in-the-sky projections.

A word of advice. Don't just look at the US market (or any foreign market for that matter) as if it's an extension of the AU market and use the same type of modeling. They're as different as chalk and cheese and many a foreign investor has found that the hard way.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 15, 2014 - 9:55 pm

And lets go on three..1…2…3….

JCPenney today announced that as part of its turnaround efforts, the Company will be closing 33 underperforming stores across the country in order to focus its resources on the Company`s highest potential growth opportunities….

….and just out from Macy's,….

Approximately 2,500 employees are expected to be laid off and are eligible for severance as a result of these organizational changes. Other associates are being reassigned with new duties or transferred; some open positions will not be filled."

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 15, 2014 - 9:25 pm

Things are getting bad. The M&A sees a Jap company Suntory buy Beam.

I'm switching to Canadian Club.. agh no I can't!. They're owned by Beam!!!

It'll have to be JD.. a fine drop too..

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 15, 2014 - 9:17 pm

Mortgage origination crashing – Both BoA and Wells Fargo report slumps of 50%+ in mortgage origination.

With refi's almost non existent and a mortgage origination on the floor that just leaves speculators and hot money to float the property boat.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 15, 2014 - 8:31 pm

Spot on Ziv. The wealth transfer from the 99.9% to the 1% is continuing as planned.

Greece +7.7% – best week in 8 months

Portugal +4.7% – best week in 9 months

Spain +4.98% – best week in 16 months

Venezuela +475% – best 12 months eva

It's all going so well…

Ziv wrote:

As mr Bass and his club of "if I build it (the impending disaster) it will come" hedge fund groupies continue their wishful thinking attack, Japan slowly continue to stubbornly defy them by demonstrating that revival and growth, although not easy, are still very much in the cards for the world's third largest economy.

Japanese property markets are being front run on the expectation that Abenomics would 1. BOJ printing would inflate markets like the US S&P and 2. Companies and funds would speculate on the investors who would in turn speculate on a recovery. Basically a circle jerk if ever I saw one.

The problem is:

 But I'm sure all those with the required blinkers on will only see great things ahead of them.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 14, 2014 - 3:27 am

I see Abenomics is still having the predicted as opposed to desired outcomes…

It's all those big bad Chinese fault..

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 13, 2014 - 1:33 am

Simpson's the kinda of guy I wouldn't trust to look after a bag of rocks for me. That investment was discussed here last year and written off as highly suspect if not downright suicidal.

He's due in Sydney in March for a presentation.

First thing I'd do is read your contract until you know it backwards. It's not unusual for projects to be delayed and many a developer could do with a course in customer relations and communications that's for sure. I wouldn't be panicking just yet but I would sure as hell be doing a lot of background research and up skilling myself on everything to do with this project.

A good way to get these guys to come out is start some bad press through the likes of Facebook. Call it Cash Flow Gold Problems or something that the search engines like. Be aware of slander and libel laws though. You can express an opinion as long as everything is factual. Guys like this usually surface once the noise gets too loud.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 12, 2014 - 8:23 am

JacM wrote:

Don't think of it as swallowing your pride Paul – think of it as making a smart decision to surround yourself with seriously clever people who know their stuff.  Leveraging their abilities will take you far

Absolutely. There's an old saying in business; spend more time 'on' the business rather than working 'in' the business. Broking is a discipline that is detailed, complex and requires a certain amount of skill. It takes years to acquire that skill experience and knowledge especially related to property investing.

Smart business people learn to leverage the technical skills and abilities of their investing team while they focus on more productive activities. Successful business leaders are good at delegating responsibilities to those with the best chance of positive outcomes. They don't try and do everything themselves.

A motivated individual with a good team will out-do an individual trying to do it mostly by themselves by a substantial stretch.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 11, 2014 - 8:00 am

Generally speaking a company can carry forward tax losses individuals can't.Get some advice in this area to clarify.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 11, 2014 - 4:48 am

Only bothered with life insurance for a critical but brief period when the kids where young. Figured I'd live forever… so far so good

Near death experiences and hospitalisations;

• mother was in a bad roll over when she was 7 months with me
• hospitalised with colic at 10 mths
• swallowed a threepence when I was 5, coughed it up just as i was going under
• fell out the car when I was 7
• wrote off a sports car in a 90mph prang when I was 14..walked away
• hospital 1 week Leptospirosis mid 30's
• meningitis RPA early 40's
• Campylobacter food poisoning mid 40's
• Campylobacter food poisoning again early 50's
• heart attack early 50's

insurance … who needs it..

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 9, 2014 - 3:22 am

DWolfe wrote:

Those are my things to watch for the next 3 years!

There's only one thing to watch over the next few years and that's China (where Aus is concerned anyway). China's banking system has had two near death experiences over the last 6 months and remains firmly stuck in the credit creation cycle. It has no choice but to exit this cycle (basically taper like the FED) or it will simply blow up. Tapering requires crushing growth of 7.5% down to around 3% for them to transition from an investment lead economy to a more consumption based economy. That means shifting the wealth creation machinery towards building wealth within the general populace (so they can consume)and away from the elites. A complex and politically difficult task.

Whatever the outcome it is all negative for the Australian economy. Throw in Japans crazy Uncle Abe and Sth Koreas difficulties and you have some serious head winds for AU. Given that Abbot and Co are somewhat like Bill and Ben the flower pot men I can't get excited about Australia's chances over the next 3 – 5.

Plan accordingly.

[FreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680]

January 9, 2014 - 12:56 am

Nah that's the NZ end. Red tape here has got way out of hand since I've been away. Does my head in.. Don't get me started on converting licenses over..