All Topics / Overseas Deals / Interesting talk with Au accoutant today on what qualifies for Super funds in US

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  • Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
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    We closed our first transactions for TWH this last week with a group of doctors from AU.

    They had hired a prominate AU accoutant to help in their search for higher yeilds.

    Critera was.

    1. higher than average returns.

    2. Not having to manage US managers, did not want the risk of tenant and PM issues.

    3. Consistant cash flow No variation in cash flow month to month.

    4. Equity up side NO PAYING far over Market value for properites because the US turn Key guy was making a bunch the AU marketing company was taking an up front fee plus money from the US guy for the privlage… A true whole sale transaction with no risk to the Aussie doctors.

    So after a year of offering our Investment Model we are proud to annoucne that we have gotten our first AU group of investors that understand and appreciate what we do for the investors.

    These Doctors have significant superfunds.  According to the AU accountant that we are working through, The traditional Turn Key investment in the States is NOT  Super FUND approved, Its too risky,,,,, There is no assurity of return, and if one hooks up with the wrong company one can lose not only their return but their entire investment.

    So after exhaustive due diligence on our company which included.

    1. Criminal back ground checks   ( common for even renters in the US)

    2. Copies of all RE license's and Mortgage licenses.

    3. Letters of deposit from our banks showing our financial capabilitys  IE we have the money to operate and are not just flipping properties and making middle man fee.s we acutally have 7 figures cash in the bank to operate.

    4. research of the AU super laws and US IRS laws.

    This group moved forward on multiple transactions and will be taxing our ability to keep up with demand.

    I thought one day the Au would appreciate what we offered and glad we hung in there.

    JLH

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    here come the Aussies…..We have opened the hole in the dike and its goig to be everything we can do to keep up with demand.

    I love working through the Accounting firm. they really have their clients best interest at heart , and have determine that an inestment in teh states that involves day to day management of a third party vendor manager is not something they want to deal with in any capacity…

    First 6 properteis went over today with orders for 10 more… We will be back on the buy this next week to keep up with demand.

    [email protected]

    Profile photo of lawsjslawsjs
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    @lawsjs
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    Nice one Jay!! Well done. Out of interest do you have any idea whether AU superfund money can get IRS 401k tax benefits?

    I wrote that above and then thought more about what you have achieved. Great result for everyone. You deserve every success as the planning would have been daunting. From the little glimpse you gave me of your business model I have to say that you are from my understanding of the market the first to really offer something genuine to a big fund management company. I have read extensively and with some interest about the Aus super funds pumping money into what I can only describe as ‘awful’ sounding US RE investments. Your model should provide some solid returns for the end investor and I applaud you for sticking with it.

    As an aside Doctors, Accountants, Pilots etc are awful investors – for some reason they think they are gods gift to making money. In reality they need all the help they can get! Nice to hear a ‘good news’ story at last!!

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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     I always thought that of Doctors that are pilots… You know the one's that contantly land wheels up :) And or get their ticket have 80 hours and buy a 200 knot complex machine because of the doctor complex,, its huge here in the states.

    I really like were we are going with this.

    This accountant in Perth is a fee based accountant this doctor group is paying him by the hour to research and find the safest US investments, and the major concern of course of these investors is what happens when a property goes vacant and or any other malady…And the last thing this accountant wants to do is recommend an investment that does not pan out as advertised, and as we all know SFR's in the US in the turn key model are anything but consistant returns. One year you can get 12 to 14.. next year you have some issues a few vacancies and the next thing you know you made 3% or negative if you have a real bad experince like what happens to those that buy in the war zones or the super cheap properties of the N. east.

    these investors want the account to do all the due diligence then he makes recommendations and controls the settlement etc.
    This accountant does not take a sales load on either side of the transaction, and that is really refreshing it allows us to rebate back to the investor the dollars we have ear marked for sales load ( and of course in our model thats not huge by any means) but it will raise the 9% net yeild up to close to 10%..

    thank you for the kind words,, we really beleive in our product and we are going to open in Carolina so we can keep up with Demand… Alex out there has a really button down crew.. and can execute on the rehab and management side. So we are excited to add that market to our program.

    And the success we are having here in the states is really the same, we have accountants and IRA consultants referring us business.  For the US IRA our model is really a no brainer,, the US investor has issues if they have cash calls with investments in their IRA… So the fact that they would never have a cash call with TWH makes our investment far more suitable for the busy professional that wants to look at alternate returns vis a vi the stock market. I have a meeting next week with the accounting firm that represent the NW association of Dentist. this is a huge fund… Those dentist once they pay off their practice make some really great money here in the states not sure how it goes in OZ… 400 to 600k a year is not uncommon for a flurishing practice.
    Just takes them years to pay off student loans and the Million bucks it cost to set up their offices.  Same concept this accountant is tasked with finding alternative investments that will create 7 to 9% net yeilds which are just huge in the states and offer low risk and no management issues.

    There is a huge movement going on right now coming out of the stock market and into real estate this will help firm prices as well as all the off shore investors buying.

    Now if the rental market continues to hold all will be well… Some markets are tough with vacancy and decending rental values. the deserts of the west have and do experince that…

    One of my best buddies has a property management company in PhX.. over 1000 doors. and its a struggle to keep occupancy. and rents have gone down in the last 5 years 20 to 40%… Of course did not help with the AZ government getting all over the mexicans and those people fleeing back to mexico. First time in history more left than came into our country… Lucky you guys are surrounded by water little tougher to sneak in.

    We are spoiled here in Portland vacancy rates under 2% collections by and large never an issue. we do deal with trashed units though you never get away from that. Hoever it will run you 150 to 200k for a decent rental that will rent for 900 to 1100… So no where near the cash flow here. I have pretty much sold all my Oregon rentals and reloaded down in our markets in the South east… Even if they never went up a dime cash flow is just twice as good as in Oregon…. but you always have that investor that will only buy a rental they can drive to in 30 mintues or less, and I fully understand that.

    best

    [email protected]

    Profile photo of PaulliePaullie
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    Jay

    I took a look at the website and watched the video, this is basically what I got out of it.

    9%pa returns on your initial investment.
    50% equity split after 4-5 years.

    If I put $200,000 into a term deposit at a local bank, Id get roughly 5.7% interest, maybe a bit more. Over 5 years Id have $265,773.02. Zero risk investment.

    If I purchased $200,00 worth of property notes, the rental return would net me $90,000. If there is CG Id get half. Thats a big IF, what happens if there is negative growth, is the loss still split? What happens if theres another crash in the USA? What happens if the AUD$ heads north like they are predicting, there could be a 10% loss right there. What happens if your company goes belly up?

    Steve Knight appears to be getting 30% returns, why is your company only offering 9%?

    From my point of view, it seems like a lot more risk for little more gain.

    Dont get me wrong, Im just trying to play devils advocate here, and typically I have a low risk level, a conservative.

    Profile photo of PaulliePaullie
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    Ive taken this a step further now.

    On the success stories page, there is a proprty 2261 Paden, which is 2261 Paden St  Jackson, MS 39204.

    Your site quotes:

    Monthly Cash Flow: $247.50

    Investor Equity Day 1:      $16,000
    Note Price:    $33,000
    ARV:    $65,000
    Loan to Value:    51%
    Interest Rate:    9%

    On http://www.zillow.com (http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2261-Paden-St-Jackson-MS-39204/3044474_zpid/) it quotes:
    Zestimate®: $43,800
    Rent Zestimate:$698/mo

    Why is you ARV over 30% different to the estimate here? Dont get me wrong, I expect to see a difference, but 32%?

    The 9% return your offering is $247.50/mo, thats a $400 difference to the actual rental estimate!!!

    I do realise you guys take care of the reno's. How much on average would you spend on the renos?

    Also, why is the note price, cheaper than the ARV? Significantly cheaper.

    Thanks for your help.

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    @jayhinrichs
    Join Date: 2011
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    Paullie wrote:
    Jay

    I took a look at the website and watched the video, this is basically what I got out of it.

    9%pa returns on your initial investment.
    50% equity split after 4-5 years.

    If I put $200,000 into a term deposit at a local bank, Id get roughly 5.7% interest, maybe a bit more. Over 5 years Id have $265,773.02. Zero risk investment.

    If I purchased $200,00 worth of property notes, the rental return would net me $90,000. If there is CG Id get half. Thats a big IF, what happens if there is negative growth, is the loss still split? What happens if theres another crash in the USA? What happens if the AUD$ heads north like they are predicting, there could be a 10% loss right there. What happens if your company goes belly up?

    Steve Knight appears to be getting 30% returns, why is your company only offering 9%?

    From my point of view, it seems like a lot more risk for little more gain.

    Dont get me wrong, Im just trying to play devils advocate here, and typically I have a low risk level, a conservative.

    great questions,

    First Zillow is far from accurate the 63k value is from a 3rd party apprasial,, Zillow is computer automated and if you follow Zillow it will just frustrate you either the values will be too low or too high.

    Return, it really does not matter what we pay, its what you can get if you do it on your own in the US. 30% is just a pipe dream no offense to Mr. Mcnight but this is just not reality or sustainable, and I would venture to guess thats his best case Gross cash flow.. But hey buy one of those and see how you fair.

    If you do not beleive the market has bottomed then you definatly should not invest. so I look at this house you mentioned that rents for 750 a month.  Really how low could it go,, It has a value now of 63k no matter what Zillow says… Our investor comes in for half of market. Just look at turn key companies that have Completly renovated houses like ours. I think you will have a hard time finding any for 33k that rent for 750,   And you have no exposure to down side.

    If you can get 5.7% gauranteed then by all means keep your money at home and or a good portion of it.

    Back to the 30% I just get a belly laugh out of that one, I had a Aussie over a few months back and she looked at our product got hufffy and said why should I invest with you I can get 25% in Detroit…. My response was of course by all means go right ahead you may get 25% for 3 months then you could and probably will lose all your money,,, I can't tell you how many PM messages we get from those wanting help out of their so called 2o0 to 30% yeild properties where the Aussie has bought them only to lose all their money,,,,,, At the end of the day if you lose your principal what the heck good was a 30% return. Which again is just fantasy.
    If all rentals returned that amount of money the US would be so rich there would be no money left everyone owning real estate would double their money in 3 years. I mean come on you cannot be that nieve to beleive this Poppy cock.

    AS for currency exchange I have no idea about that… Other than I have been on the benefical side. I made a lot of loans personally with my US dollars in British Columbia when the Loonie was .68% and when my loans matured the loonie had risen to .89% so with that and my 12% interest rate the return was Massive…

    However the main point here is you have a fully managed asset like ours, ( which the aussie really does not appreciate) as oppossed to you taking the risk of the down side… And beleive me there is downside when your 6k miles away from your asset.

    JLH

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    Paullie wrote:
    Ive taken this a step further now.

    On the success stories page, there is a proprty 2261 Paden, which is 2261 Paden St  Jackson, MS 39204.

    Your site quotes:

    Monthly Cash Flow: $247.50

    Investor Equity Day 1:      $16,000
    Note Price:    $33,000
    ARV:    $65,000
    Loan to Value:    51%
    Interest Rate:    9%

    On http://www.zillow.com (http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2261-Paden-St-Jackson-MS-39204/3044474_zpid/) it quotes:
    Zestimate®: $43,800
    Rent Zestimate:$698/mo

    Why is you ARV over 30% different to the estimate here? Dont get me wrong, I expect to see a difference, but 32%?

    The 9% return your offering is $247.50/mo, thats a $400 difference to the actual rental estimate!!!

    I do realise you guys take care of the reno's. How much on average would you spend on the renos?

    Also, why is the note price, cheaper than the ARV? Significantly cheaper.

    Thanks for your help.

    again good questions.

    The ARV is supported by for fee apprasial. So thats market value despite Zillow.

    Out of the 400 a month 150 is for tax's and insurance and 200 is for vacancy and maintenance… Our positive cash flow is 50 to 150 a month per property… And we make our money on volume. 10 new homes plus a month into the system and our cash flow goes up accordingly, We make a few thousand on the front side…. Again how much can one make on a 33k home.. Which of course is the very cheapest we have in our portfolio…..And there is NO Management Fee's no leasing fee's no maintenance fees no fee's if someone steals something from the house etc etc….

    The major issue with all rentals be it you folks from OZ or US investors is the burying your head in the sand about vacancy and maintainence.  House's rarely if ever are fully vacant over a 3 to 5 year period and unless your a slum lord you will spend at least 100 a month keeping it in tip top shape…

    Good news is our investors come into the investment for even less than zillow estimate not twice as much.. So thats a good thing right????

    end of the day our product stacks up nicely for those that really just want a return,,,

    And once they do their due diligence on us,,, and our abiltiy to execute they make the decision to be our partner on these houses.

    And for the ultra conservative investors as I say.. if you can get 6% in OZ 100% guaranteed then by all means you should keep your money at home thats what I would do for sure.

    Oh and last, What happens if we go belly up,,, Well you now own the home for a wholesale price you wipe out our equity we have done all this work for Naught and you end up at the same place as if you had bought it on your own.

    We give you a pre signed deed if we miss 2 payments you record it and we are wiped out. 

    I enjoy this banter more for personal entertainment than to convince any Aussie to invest with us.. As a matter of fact not one has invested with us, Other than the group of Doctors that are investing with us…

    Our investment is for the investor that once they vette us they are content with the return that is consistant and never varies and the potential upside…

    Most mom and pops read about the 30% and will go for that,,,, time will tell… I have yet seen one person who actually bought a property in the US that has owned it for more than 24 months post on any of the Aussie sites about making 30% Net yeilds or for that matter anyting over 15%.

    when we roll out of these I am 90% certain with the rebound that will happen,, And yes it will happen I have been investing for 35 years.. that our 33k house you mention will sell for 75 to 90k like it did 6 years ago. And the house I am buying In atlanta and bringing my investor into for 50 to 60k  All IN And totally rentovated to MY standards will sell for 100 to 120k.. thereby giving our investor a net yeild of 12 to 16% with no down side risk.

    If the market craters and values do not go up we still have equity and worse case scenerio I will refi these out and keep them as long term rentals…. Once some on checks into our financial strenght they will see that we have that capacity.

    Happy Aussie day I hear.

    Why is our Note price less than ARV.. Because we are not taking our profit out up front and leaving equity in the deal for our investor and us.

    We see this is Atlanta all the time,,,, My investments for the same props are 55 to 60k  and on many Aussie websites same vintage home  rental income and properties are listed at 80 to 100k…

    So really how much can one make when you sell a note for 33k on a house we put 15k plus into just into Reno….

    These lower end rentals are cash flow cows for our US investors. And I can sell anyone of them for 10 to 20k more than we are in them at any time just based on cap rate.  Try that when you buy a house from an AUssie company hawking US properties.

    Or paying 50k for a house in Rochester or Detroit or Fort Wayne or Toledo or any other garden spot. 

    Profile photo of PaulliePaullie
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    Thanks very much for taking the time out to answer my questions. Again Im just playing devils advocate for us aussies looking to invest.

    I do believe your offering is unique and is working well for the right investor.

    Compared to the rest of the world current Australian interest rates are a lot higher. The 5.7% I quoted was literally straight off the Commonwealth Bank website, so yes, it is possible to get 6% returns on cash parked in a bank here.

    Unfortunately for you thats probably why you dont have many oz investors on board. The doctors you mention have probably worked out some tax loop to make it worthwhile (purely speculating).

    I 100% agree with you about the 30% returns people are quoting, its simply not sustainable, and if it was that easy why would someone need to right a book about it instead of leveraging to the hilt on them.

    I have a few friends in the US, one with their own law practice, I'll have them to some DD on your company.

    Just quickly, if the property were to go negative equity, do you still sell after the 4-5 year period, what happens?

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    Your attorney is free to do due diligence on me though if you send me his e mail I will send him my credendials package.

    1. FBI crimial background check
    2. copies of my California brokers license in good standing since 1977
    3. Oregon Brokers license good standing since 2002
    4. Mississippi Brokers licnes good standing 2008
    5. Oregon Mortgage originators license good standing 06
    6 Federal NMLS mortage BAnkers licesne good standing 08  these were new in 08

    7. Bank letters showing 7 figure liquitity for my partner and I  thats over 1mil cash liquid at anyone time.

    8 Letters from closing companies ( settlement agents ) stating 500 plus transactions for each of us. and thats just one agenciy I have done well over 2000 in the last 10 years.

    And any other documentatin an investor would want to make a modest investment with us.

    If in the unlikly hood of a water landing  IE properties dropping drastically in the next 5 years. since we are coming into these asset already 30 to 40% lower than today values it would take a real catastrophic event. Howeve if it happen we would refit these properties out or cash them out. the investor keep s the 9% we take the equity going forward.

    I would love just a couple of aussie to try us out. at this point I will give them each a 6 month money back guarantee to check us out. Not happy in six months I buy you out,   you keep the 9% I get the property released from the note. I am that convinced once they are in and get there nice checks each and every month with no worries this will be one of their better vanilla investments.

    JLh

    JLH

    Profile photo of jbelmorejbelmore
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    Hi Jay

    My take on your product is that it is a good superannuation investment so makes sense that superannuation is your first Aussie interest. Normal returns on our balanced super funds are 7.5% long term so 9% is good then you get forex impact (good or bad your call) and equity amount on sale (again insert your guess). (I wish I had an extra self managed fund but mine’s all locked up in a Government guaranteed fund which you can’t go past.)

    We don’t have much comparable product in Australia as the banks do nearly all the lending and much easier to get a loan so its a bit harder to sell the concept here. There’s a history of solicitor (attorney) generated lending to property going bust as they would lend with high LTV to dodgy borrowers. The valuations on these properties turned out to be dodgy so you’ll probably get more questions on how yours are valued as the note to value proportion is critical.

    The joint venture concept concerned me until I realized how secure your notes are. We don’t have anything comparable in Australia – no liquid market for notes. I thought you might load selling costs in the sale but the process seems quite independent so you couldn’t do that.

    I’m not ready to invest right now but when I am I would be looking at how your note values compared to my assessment of the valuation as if it looked like the initial equity was real then it would give the deal more leverage.

    Q: Are the valuations based on recent comparable sales? Does Zillow struggle to keep up with comparable sales?

    Thanks

    David

    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    Astute comments.

    I never look at Zillow, I might have been on that sight once in my life…. Zillow is all over the map, It can show properties far too low in value then properteis that are far too high in value given local sales. The only way to value propert is through a BPO and get 2 of those.. And or a for fee appraiser which is what we do , apprasier is your best bet for true value. Now this does not hold true in Atalanta were you have auctions short sales and all manner of sales far below last solds.

    The Atlanta market you must have to use replacement value and common sense. I f you snag a 2000k ft nice home for 60k thats 30k a foot to build , one cannot build in the us for less than 60k plus permits. 'so as long as your not in the hood, there is going to be significant upside for these homes over the next 5 years.

    Jbelmore,,,,, At the end of the day its going to be who we are what we can do for you our proof of our capacity and experince to execute on your behalf that will carry the day and you will make a comfortable decision to give one of our investmetns a shot.
    We are not asking for 100% of someone funds and infact would never take them

    If you have a 200k portfolio we would recommend1 of our notes 2 max then go for high growth stocks.

    Profile photo of worldinvestorworldinvestor
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    jayhinrichs wrote:
    Astute comments.

    I never look at Zillow, I might have been on that sight once in my life…. Zillow is all over the map, It can show properties far too low in value then properteis that are far too high in value given local sales. The only way to value propert is through a BPO and get 2 of those.. And or a for fee appraiser which is what we do , apprasier is your best bet for true value. Now this does not hold true in Atalanta were you have auctions short sales and all manner of sales far below last solds.

    The Atlanta market you must have to use replacement value and common sense. I f you snag a 2000k ft nice home for 60k thats 30k a foot to build , one cannot build in the us for less than 60k plus permits. 'so as long as your not in the hood, there is going to be significant upside for these homes over the next 5 years.

    Jbelmore,,,,, At the end of the day its going to be who we are what we can do for you our proof of our capacity and experince to execute on your behalf that will carry the day and you will make a comfortable decision to give one of our investmetns a shot.
    We are not asking for 100% of someone funds and infact would never take them

    If you have a 200k portfolio we would recommend1 of our notes 2 max then go for high growth stocks.

    Jay
    In terms of property prices in Atlanta, zillow, redfin and other sites are a guide, not perfect, but there is a hell of a lot of useful  information such as, ie county taxes,  recent sales etc.

    I agree with your comments that it is important to look replacement value when purchasing in Atlanta.
     
    In one of my posts I mentioned that I am buying properties in Atlanta between $20-30 sq ft,  you can not  build at this price and when you do snag a 2500 ft home at $48,000 or $34,000 well that just makes the deal so much sweeter.

    WI

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    world investor

    well done. ..its really insane in my mind the deals that are being had.

    all we offering going forward is constant cash flow with no down side. ..To some that is worth something Others thing well I cna  make 347.00 more a year in cash flow if I do it myself get on teh phone calls at 13 a t night fly over ther twice a year etc etc.

    We just bring a nice stable product. If folks want to make more they really need to move here and just flip older proeprites if they want rentals I would venture to guess we will out perform 80% of those that try to do it on their own.

    and of course those folks by and larege will never admit it  they will just ride their negative cash flow investment down to the ground.

    Profile photo of speedy gonzalesspeedy gonzales
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    jayhinrichs wrote:
    Astute comments.

    I never look at Zillow, I might have been on that sight once in my life…. Zillow is all over the map, It can show properties far too low in value then properteis that are far too high in value given local sales. The only way to value propert is through a BPO and get 2 of those.. And or a for fee appraiser which is what we do , apprasier is your best bet for true value. Now this does not hold true in Atalanta were you have auctions short sales and all manner of sales far below last solds.

    The Atlanta market you must have to use replacement value and common sense. I f you snag a 2000k ft nice home for 60k thats 30k a foot to build , one cannot build in the us for less than 60k plus permits. 'so as long as your not in the hood, there is going to be significant upside for these homes over the next 5 years.

    Jbelmore,,,,, At the end of the day its going to be who we are what we can do for you our proof of our capacity and experince to execute on your behalf that will carry the day and you will make a comfortable decision to give one of our investmetns a shot.
    We are not asking for 100% of someone funds and infact would never take them

    If you have a 200k portfolio we would recommend1 of our notes 2 max then go for high growth stocks.

    Jay,

    I think it’s about time that we had a discussion about Zillow, Trulia, Redfin etc….all computer generated modelling estimates. Yes you can pick a few useful bits of information from them but by no means is the valuation accurate…..I have always found to be way off the mark. From what I have read and seen first hand….many Aussies are treating these sorts of sites as the bible of property values

    For example….I am just about to close on a property north of Dallas. Aside from the issue that Zillow etc doesn’t work in non disclosure states like Texas and 9 other states I think….the figures are way off the mark and in NO WAY should a buyer base their decisions on value based upon the modelled estimates. On the property I am buying…Zillow has a estimate of $83,000-00. The bank just gave me a copy of the appraisal they had done for my loan and backed up a market value based on comparable sales of $147,000-00.

    This has been my experience so would like some feedback from you Jay on what those in the US think of these sites.

    Profile photo of worldinvestorworldinvestor
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    speedy gonzales wrote:
    jayhinrichs wrote:
    Astute comments.

    I never look at Zillow, I might have been on that sight once in my life…. Zillow is all over the map, It can show properties far too low in value then properteis that are far too high in value given local sales. The only way to value propert is through a BPO and get 2 of those.. And or a for fee appraiser which is what we do , apprasier is your best bet for true value. Now this does not hold true in Atalanta were you have auctions short sales and all manner of sales far below last solds.

    The Atlanta market you must have to use replacement value and common sense. I f you snag a 2000k ft nice home for 60k thats 30k a foot to build , one cannot build in the us for less than 60k plus permits. 'so as long as your not in the hood, there is going to be significant upside for these homes over the next 5 years.

    Jbelmore,,,,, At the end of the day its going to be who we are what we can do for you our proof of our capacity and experince to execute on your behalf that will carry the day and you will make a comfortable decision to give one of our investmetns a shot.
    We are not asking for 100% of someone funds and infact would never take them

    If you have a 200k portfolio we would recommend1 of our notes 2 max then go for high growth stocks.

    Jay, I think it's about time that we had a discussion about Zillow, Trulia, Redfin etc….all computer generated modelling estimates. Yes you can pick a few useful bits of information from them but by no means is the valuation accurate…..I have always found to be way off the mark. From what I have read and seen first hand….many Aussies are treating these sorts of sites as the bible of property values For example….I am just about to close on a property north of Dallas. Aside from the issue that Zillow etc doesn't work in non disclosure states like Texas and 9 other states I think….the figures are way off the mark and in NO WAY should a buyer base their decisions on value based upon the modelled estimates. On the property I am buying…Zillow has a estimate of $83,000-00. The bank just gave me a copy of the appraisal they had done for my loan and backed up a market value based on comparable sales of $147,000-00. This has been my experience so would like some feedback from you Jay on what those in the US think of these sites.

    I don't know how US banks determine valuation in the current US property market, its all over the shop, foreclosures short sales,  and foreclosure onsold to foreigners at hugely marked up price.

    I would be concerned about companies working sweet heart deals with the bank where the valuation is  above the actual true value? I know of least 2 companies using this strategy to draw in the investor, I am sure there are many more.

    I have been purchasing properties in Atlanta well below what the zestimate has been stated on zillow. My understanding is that zillow over-estimates the value of the properties, I would also look at recent sales you can also do this on refin, trulia.

    This is why I look at current building costs for example in Atlanta per sq ft is approx  $70-80 this  has been confirmed by a couple of builders in Atlanta.  I am purchasing at $20-30 per sq ft well below the real/replacement costs. This is one way of keeping the figures real.

    WI

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    Speedy   WI,

    Agreed on the US value web sites…

    Values right now are just really really hard to nail down… Take a market like Atlanta were 90% or better of transactions are foreclosure short sales or combo of both…

    In the early 2000's when I was very active in the Portland OR foreclosure market,,,, court house step buying,,, we bought properties in those days at 20 to 40% of market value then you had to Reno… If you net 10% thats was a fair pay day anything above was time to celebrate… Lots of competition on the west coast for courthouse steps buying.

    My point is when I bought one of those I would commonally get a call's from appraisers , I was also the Listing agent on these many times" The apprasiser would ask if it was an arms length transaction and when i stated it was court house steps or a pre foreclosure they tossed that property out as a comp….

    So fast forward now and its just a mess with so many bank owned and foreclosres what is the true value,,,,, True Value what Us first Gen wholesalers pay for the property or is it what we pay for them RENO them then flip them to a buyer making our 10 to 25% profit margins… Then to complicate matters add in whatever the Aussie pays a service just to look at properties you need to add that in to be fair…

    replacement cost and income approach is really the best bet to get some barometer of value.

    I just bought one last week in Atlanta suberb….. We will bring it to you investment portfolio right at 60k it will rent right at 1000.00 its probably 40 a foot or so….  On the exact same block with the exact same houses floor plans etc there is new construction being built and being SOLD at 99 to 119k…

    WI,

    Build cost in Atlanta are far lower than 80 a foot…   we build in oregon including 20k for permits for under 70 a foot and I know things are much cheaper there. First off in the starter housing the materials are the cheapest you can possibly find….

    but I do beleive WI your 30 a foot purchases will go up in value if you can just keep tenants not have any major tenanting issues pay to keep the house in decent shape then put 5 to 10k into it to make it retaliable in 5 to 7 years you should make a good profit.
    Thats one of the items missing in all the marketing materials I see.. No dollars allocated to make the house retail ready,,, Big difference between retail ready and rent ready…

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    Why are people renting for more than they could purchase? Can they not obtain finanace?

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    Paullie,

    Correct cannot get financing….

    Sub prime mortgages took a Huge toll on the US consumer.. As well as a loan product called Pick a Payment.

    This pick a payment went like this.

    Borrower had choice of payments intially for the first 5 years then the loan reset.
    Also mortgage brokers made huge commissions on these loans in the form of YSP  "yeild spread premiums" not uncommon for a Mortgage originator to make 2 to 4 points on a loan.. Thats right up there with hard money… 1% usually disclosed then the YSP that was a kick back from the investor buying the loan… This practice has been shut down by the fed by the by. So here ya go here is what a Pick a payment loan looked like.

    Teaser or intial rate        2 to 3% interest

    negative amortization    payment    Owe more than you borrowed over time ( don't ask me I did not invent this one)

    market rate                Payment at 5 or 6 % or so  depending on what your note called for.

    So the borrower gets qualifed for the loan on the teaser rate… And of course they only pay the minimum… 5 year balloon hits

    and the payment doubles as interest rates move up to market rates… Borrower is in trouble as they cannot afford the new payment and they default.

    This loan was really prevelant in places like CA. AZ NV FL GA……

    Then you had just the plain jane sub prime… where borrowers paid far over market rate to just get a house.

    Now you have literally millions of families that have lost homes and have been thrown into the rental pool… 'ergo strong rental demand… And not good enough credit to buy. Along with the other 50% of foreclosures mainly in the inner big cities of Landlords who have gotten tired of feeding their rentals and they walk away by the millions as well,,, perfect storm really.

    5 years ago a sub prime borrower could have a 500 FICO and buy a house…. that went up to 620 FHA and in addition borrower did not have to have one thin dime of down payment…. Now with FHA borrower must put 3.5% down..

    So there ya go a whole generation of americans that bought homes with crappy credit or were not smart enough to figure out what a teaser rate was.. Needed no down payment and they became homeowners…

    So now it will take these that lost homes 3 years minimum to clean up credit then of course they actually have to save some down payment… And with so much US wealth ( like OZ) tied to property equity and with the values being crushed there ya go.
    huge % of Americans are years away from homeownership…. 5 to 7 year holding time for market and Americans to recover is prudent thinking in my mind.

    JLH

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