All Topics / Help Needed! / Forecast – is this correct (Residential Property Market)?

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  • Profile photo of JustLearningJustLearning
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    @justlearning
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 4

    I know that the property market will jump in the coming years. But I also believe that the property market will slightly plateau for the following reasons:

    1. The Federal Govt grant will expire towards the 2nd Quarter of this financial year. What this means is that despite the State Govt's generous first-home buyer's grant, the addtional buffer from the Federal Govt will not be there for aspirant buyers to purchase the property they want without the tolerance level of price hikes.
    2. With such a frenzy out there in the market, some first-home buyer's will miss out and so will some investors as property prices in the sub $600K market goes up. What the psychological impact is that "this is too expensive" and we will wait for the right pirced property which will dampen the property prices
    3. With the banks preparing to increase fixed interest rates in property loans, it is a clear indication that big financial institutes believe that either we are nearing the bottom of the cylce or we are already there. Even if we are not in the midst of the bottom of the cycle, the big banks have already forecasted that going ahead the financial recovery will be there and they can no longer price their products at such low margins. Hence, a lot of people will be cautious once the interest rates start pushing up. (Tip: If you have spare cash put it into the banks and a few of the mining companies
    4. and let it ride out the storm for the next 3 years).

    So, property prices will go up, albeit not at the level we have seen earlier. So if you have the capacity to service a loan/debt than you should get out and buy properties that have growth potential. Rental demands will also be strong so as an investor your total ROI within the next 3-5 years time will be around 20 – 30%. Most importantly, make sure that you have enough time on your hands to do the research and spend time where it is necessary: there is no such thing as a free lunch.

    Now please provide me with comments if you think the above is right.

    I am not a financial advisor etc…just wanted to make sure that I am giving myself the right advice

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