All Topics / Help Needed! / Have I devised a clever investing technique?

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  • Profile photo of OzboyOzboy
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    @ozboy
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 37

    I hope so, cause I will feel all intelligent if its legitimate

    I am just finishing off renovating my own place with plans to move out, rent it out & buy another dump to live in & renovate that, using the equity from the re-valuation of my place.

    Here is my complicated question:
    Let's say the available equity allows me to buy ONLY ONE $500K property (the value is irrelevant to this question though).

    Could I put a deposit bond down on a brand new, yet to be constructed, $500K property & also buy an established $500K property for renovating, assuming that the financial institution who I speak to about buying the established property doesn't look at whether I have a deposit bond on the new property pending future settlement? Or will this come up in the credit checking process?

    Obviously the plan would be to hope for price increase so that I can 'flip' the new property before settlement, as I would not be financially able to settle.

    Profile photo of LinarLinar
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    @linar
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 567

    Hi Ozboy

    I'm not sure whether a deposit bond will come up on a credit check but if you were able to come up with the deposit yourself, you could absolutely do what you want to do. 

    As to whether it is clever or not, I would caution against it UNLESS you are a very experienced investor and intimately know the market where you want to buy the new property.  How do you know it will go up before settlement?  Is the property substantially undervalued now?  What if prices don't go up and you have to sell the property at a loss?  Could you afford to do this or would you have to sell the established property to offset the loss.

    In this market I would urge you not to speculate unless you really know what you are doing.  There is no guarantee that prices will go up.  You will also have to take into account stamp duty ($25,000 approx depending on what state you are in).  That means that the price will have to go up by at least $30,000 for you to break even.

    I am a relative newbie to investing, although I have done an incredible amount in the last 4 years.  Being new means that I have only ever seen the up side of the market where properties increase.  I was talking to my mentor the other day who has been investing for 40 years.  He was talking about the times where the market doesn't go up or worse, it goes down.  I haven't seen that market yet and I am positive it will come sooner or later.

    I think you really need to ask yourself whether you can afford to lose money on the deal.  If not, then don't speculate.

    Good luck

    K

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    @scamp
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 297
    Ozboy wrote:
    Obviously the plan would be to hope for price increase so that I can 'flip' the new property before settlement

    Your plan is the same one as the following :
    Al Capone asks you to run some money for him to his business partner. Instead of going to the business partner , you decide to go to the roulette and put everything on 1 color. If you lose, you're in problems, if you win , you're rich.

    Ask yourself if the above plan makes sense to you. If it does, then I say go for it. If you even remotely have a braincell or two though, I'd say stay off the drugs and start working instead of coming up with scams like these.

    Profile photo of OzboyOzboy
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    @ozboy
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 37
    Scamp wrote:
    Ozboy wrote:
    Obviously the plan would be to hope for price increase so that I can 'flip' the new property before settlement

    Your plan is the same one as the following :
    Al Capone asks you to run some money for him to his business partner. Instead of going to the business partner , you decide to go to the roulette and put everything on 1 color. If you lose, you're in problems, if you win , you're rich.

    Ask yourself if the above plan makes sense to you. If it does, then I say go for it. If you even remotely have a braincell or two though, I'd say stay off the drugs and start working instead of coming up with scams like these.

    This isn't a scam, this is how many people have made alot of money out of the Australian property market, particularly between 1995 & 2002, when properties were regularly 'flipped' 2 & 3 times before settlement.
    Your statement shows you have no idea about the market here & have zero credibility.
    If you like, I can educate you on a few things about property investing. Feel free to let me know.

    Profile photo of OzboyOzboy
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    @ozboy
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 37
    Linar wrote:

    Hi Ozboy

    I'm not sure whether a deposit bond will come up on a credit check but if you were able to come up with the deposit yourself, you could absolutely do what you want to do. 

    As to whether it is clever or not, I would caution against it UNLESS you are a very experienced investor and intimately know the market where you want to buy the new property.  How do you know it will go up before settlement?  Is the property substantially undervalued now?  What if prices don't go up and you have to sell the property at a loss?  Could you afford to do this or would you have to sell the established property to offset the loss.

    In this market I would urge you not to speculate unless you really know what you are doing.  There is no guarantee that prices will go up.  You will also have to take into account stamp duty ($25,000 approx depending on what state you are in).  That means that the price will have to go up by at least $30,000 for you to break even.

    I am a relative newbie to investing, although I have done an incredible amount in the last 4 years.  Being new means that I have only ever seen the up side of the market where properties increase.  I was talking to my mentor the other day who has been investing for 40 years.  He was talking about the times where the market doesn't go up or worse, it goes down.  I haven't seen that market yet and I am positive it will come sooner or later.

    I think you really need to ask yourself whether you can afford to lose money on the deal.  If not, then don't speculate.

    Good luck

    K

    Hi Linar
    Thanks for your post, but I dont think you have grasped what I am suggesting.

    1) The purpose of a deposit bond is to avoid putting down the actual deposit, so the deposit money can be freed, rather than being tied up for say 2 years while your apartment complex is being built.
    2) There is no stamp duty involved when you sell a property before settlement (flipping). The new buyer pays the stamp duty.

    I am aware this is speculation, but so is the share market.

    Risk can be minimised by undertaking proper due diligence.

    Profile photo of LinarLinar
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    @linar
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 567

    Hi Ozboy

    I HAVE grasped what you are saying.  What I was saying was that it is quite possible that a credit check would disclose a desposit bond (whereas putting up the deposit yourself would ensure that it wouldn't come up on a credit check).

    Make sure that the state you want to buy in doesn't have double stamp duty.  In VIC and NT at least, you do have to pay stamp duty even if you flip.

    Cheers

    K

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    @scamp
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 297
    Ozboy wrote:
    This isn't a scam, this is how many people have made alot of money out of the Australian property market, particularly between 1995 & 2002

    You still don't get it do you ? … This is the whole problem.
    Speculation is what pushed prices up to unrealistically high levels, unsustainably high levels. The high houseprices of today are the result of speculation that the houseprices will rise by more than 10% p.a.
    Houseprices in turn DO rise because everyone in the Ponzi scheme wants a share in the seemingly unlimited cashmaking machine called Real Estate investing.
    Well, this is the whole point, the cash machine has run dry. We have seen it in USA, we have seen it in Ireland, we have seen it in UK. All these markets were overpriced due to speculation. In Australia, the land where houseprices are the MOST overpriced of all countries, is at the moment starting to drop. We have seen drops of 10-20% ( 10… to 20 … PERCENT !! remember this well ) and we will see falls of 50-70% in some area's. In the luckiest area's the drops might be limited to 30% or 40%, but price drops are coming.

    Now I will explain YOU something, Mr. Blind man.
    Why do you think that houseprices have been allowed to go up ? It's the amount of money that lenders want to borrow you which make up the houseprices. We're looking at 30-40 years mortgage already. But that's not the frightening part. The frightening part is that the amounts of money involved are at a staggering 8-9 times annual wages !!! This, in all perspectives is crazy. People aren't able to spend ALL of their wages on paying back interest at 10% can they ? No of course they can't they need food, water, electricity, cars and petrol to drive to work, they need at least 40% of their wages to LIVE and FEED themselves.
    In the past times, this was no problem, since houseprices went up ( due to speculation mind you ) and they would use equity to pay for most of their lifestyles. This has come to a sharp HALT. No more equity , no more free money. Houseprices have gone down. People now use credit cards and other credit to pay for their lifestyles instead of their house-annex-ATM.

    Give my story a good read. Think about it. Then remember that the NORMAL house prices are 3-4 times your annual wages : ie : 150.000 – 200.000 average houseprices. NOT 450.000 average houseprices.

    450.000 -> 200.000 is more than 50% drop.

    And that , my friend, is what I call a reality check. Don't come up with "people have made money on it in the past", you are fooling yourself Mr Blind man. Use your brains, use your intellect, and you will see for yourself the truth in what I say. It's a big Ponzi Scheme, it's a pyramid-game in which the people who jump in last will be the ones that get burnt. And they will get burnt for amounts of money they cannot possibly pay back in YEARS to come… Believe me, it's already happening.

    Profile photo of YossarianYossarian
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    @yossarian
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 136
    Ozboy wrote:
    I hope so, cause I will feel all intelligent if its legitimate

    I am just finishing off renovating my own place with plans to move out, rent it out & buy another dump to live in & renovate that, using the equity from the re-valuation of my place.

    Here is my complicated question:
    Let's say the available equity allows me to buy ONLY ONE $500K property (the value is irrelevant to this question though).

    Could I put a deposit bond down on a brand new, yet to be constructed, $500K property & also buy an established $500K property for renovating, assuming that the financial institution who I speak to about buying the established property doesn't look at whether I have a deposit bond on the new property pending future settlement? Or will this come up in the credit checking process?

    Obviously the plan would be to hope for price increase so that I can 'flip' the new property before settlement, as I would not be financially able to settle.

    Not complicated…was the stock in trade for various property marketers in QLD and Vic (Docklands). Lots of people lost lots of money (not the property marketers, obviously).

    From a risk perspective, you need to ignore the fact that the deposit is in the form of a deposit bond. If you can't flip the new property prior to settlement (which you say you cannot meet), you've lost your deposit as the bond insurer will pay and pursue you.

    It's a straight gamble on the bigger idiot principle……

    Profile photo of kum yin laukum yin lau
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    @kum-yin-lau
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 342

    Hi Ozboy, while Scamp has used some rather rude words to describe your 'plan', for once he's right.

    Noticed that our property market is already very cautious all of a sudden? While prices haven't significantly dropped where I'm at, the slowing was dramatic, as in a very very hot market in December 07 and then in January, auctions were depressing.

    Flipping relies on the prices moving up very fast by a margin of more than 10%. When you tack on costs, you need to have $60000 increase in price for your $500000 house. It's a very easy way to lose your shirt and more.

    Shares are not speculative. Don't treat them as such. 

    You're already doing well with renos & small gains. Maybe some patience is needed.

    Scamp, 'average' house prices aren't 3-4% of annual income. I was earning $13000 p.a. and houses were $100000 + in the capital city. I bought one @ $166200, my 1st house. That's 13 times my income. But you're right. Got me into tremendous stress. Still kept it for 11 years & sold it for $310000.

    KY

    Profile photo of ScampScamp
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    kum yin lau wrote:
    Scamp, 'average' house prices aren't 3-4% of annual income. I was earning $13000 p.a. and houses were $100000 + in the capital city. I bought one @ $166200, my 1st house. That's 13 times my income. But you're right. Got me into tremendous stress. Still kept it for 11 years & sold it for $310000.

    Times have changed. Food isn't free anymore, gas and oil aren't free either anymore. Interest will be at 10% by december. Anyone having 12-13 times their gross wages now is by definition bankrupt. Bad luck on the gamble, stepped in the elevator too late, bad investment strategy : call it what you want, they're screwed, usually for life.

    Today's youth has only seens property values rise to tremendous levels. I can't blame them for thinking property always goes up. People like me who have seen houseprices crash, are more cautious.
    It's time people realize that houseprices can go down too. Real estate can be a big liability.

    Profile photo of newbi2newbi2
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    @newbi2
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    Oh back onto the topic, stamp duty would be payable in NSW as well

    Profile photo of newbi2newbi2
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    @newbi2
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    Oh back onto the topic, stamp duty would be payable in NSW as well

    Profile photo of Jon ChownJon Chown
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    @jon-chown
    Join Date: 2007
    Post Count: 254

    Scamp said, 'People like me who have seen house-prices crash, are more cautious. '

    Instead of making statements like the one above, how about you attempt to give dates and by how much that they CRASHED and did they ever recover.   Perhaps then your comments may have some significance.

    It's not that I am disagreeing with your comment, although I feel that crash is perhaps a little harsh and correction would be more to the point.  I began in property sales in 1977 and have been witness to only 4 corrections during this period, and at all times those people who were able to weather the storm came out the other end a lot better off.   Sure those people who over committed faced a loss but this result is not peculiar to property alone.   If you gamble the weeks wages on the pokies and have nothing left to live on, whose fault is it?   Don't spend or commit more than you can afford.

    Profile photo of mathewc73mathewc73
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    @mathewc73
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 241

    I think this debate is touching on the question "whats your investment horizon?".

    If you are buying property for the long term (ie 20 years). You need to certainly plan for ups and downs, but don't track your property as if it was a short term investment.

    You can invest in both shares and properties.  You can also trade in both shares and properties.

    In both situations you can set your horizon to days, months, years and even decades. 

    Just ensure you manage you risk, monitoring, exit position to match the same horizon you orignially invested in.

    Profile photo of RVPRVP
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    @rvp
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 47

    Can we all vote someone of this website because if so i know of a great candidate!

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