All Topics / General Property / What can happen in a slump LOTS OF QUESTIONS

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  • Profile photo of devo76devo76
    Member
    @devo76
    Join Date: 2007
    Post Count: 542

    As all would agree we are in for some interesting times ahead.If we do have a continuing slump or recession it will be my first expieriance where i can be financially affected( I have a PPOR and a IP ). The recession of the early 90,s i was still in school.Currently i go from freaking out thinking i will lose all my money and my houses will be worth half there current value. Then i have a reality check and remind myself my LVR is around 60%,i have a high a paying job for a definate 5 years yet( Almost definately a lot longer) and i have no intention of selling for minimum 10 years.
    Any way i have a few questions i would like to ask. Anyone out there who hase seen a recession or two please post your opinions as you have been there and done that.
    Sorry if they are dumb questions
    1#In the 90,s recession, what happened to house prices in general,were certain areas affected while others stayed strong.
    2#Could we have a recession while the recources boom continues ,how could the two affect each other.
    3# does a housing slump induce a recession or does it depend on the severity of both factors.
    4# how long does/could a recession last.(crystal ball stuff i know)
    5#What factors brings a country out of recession and do house prices generaly recover to pre boom prices quickly.
    5# Is a recession always bad as surely if you have a safe job it must put you in a good position to by property.

    Any other thoughts you want to put foward,please do as financially i have only seen good times and i want to prepare for possible bad times. Cheers Steve

    Profile photo of ducksterduckster
    Participant
    @duckster
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 1,674

    The 1990 recession was caused by the then Government Floating the Aussie Dollar for the first time. This caused money to flow into Australia and cause inflation. The reserve bank raised the cash rate to 17% which caused people with mortgages to sell their houses as the interest costs sky rocketed. Also the 17% affected business as they also borrow money  and had to cut staff to stay in business.
    The high interest rate is what caused  the recession.  Recessions can be bad if you owe money, but uncontrolled inflation is much worse.
    A recession could last up to 2 years. Recover of prices can take up to 5 years.
    What you need to be aware of is the  notion of removing negative gearing (LABOR did this) which caused a property slump and caused rents to increase dramatically.
    What you need to look out for is Strong growth that causes inflation which causes interest rates to rise.
    I feel that Labor may have learned from the last recession it caused and would be trying to avoid this occurring again.
    If housing slumps all other follow on industries suffer like carpet, timber, tiles, floor tiles, building materials, paint, lighting, landscaping, bathroom fittings, ect

    Profile photo of hbhb
    Member
    @hb
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 179

    Well Duckster, thats partly true

    But i do take offence to your statement "I feel that Labor may have learned from the last recession …………………….."

    You obviously wheren't there for the Howard Recession of 1982

    Let me remind you with some extracts from my local paper

    June 1982
    "by allowing the banks to lift morgage interest rates, it touched off a chain reaction that, despite Treasurer John Howard's absurd insistence to the contrary, has forces many young couples from their homes. Many more must be hanging on by the skin of their teeth. People struggling to keep a roof over their heads will cut back in other areas to be able to meet their mortgage repayments."

    Sound familiar

    Another extract from local newspaper July 1982
    "rental accommodation was in a crisis situation, rents have gone up an average of 40% in the past year"

    I'm sure there'll be some IP owners hoping the same will happen again

    One more extract July 1982
    "If John Howard insists the Government is "doing its best" to keep down housing interest rates, then its clear "best" is not good enough. If for no other reason than its own political survival, the Government must come up with a plan that keeps people in their homes"

    Of course if you did a bit of research, and looked up the Hansard records of 1982 , you'll find gems like this…….

    Hansard Oct. 1982

    Humphrey (Griffith) "Is the present interest rate for most commercial enterprises between 17 per cent and 20 per cent and is this the most destructive force to business and the private sector."

    Howard (Bennalong) "It is not possible to provide exact figures on interest costs for commercial enterprises, but available data suggest a range of about 15 per cent to 20 per cent for short term commercial interest rates. Such high interest rates are undeniably detrimental to private sector activity………….."

    WHAT.,…..your the Treasurer of the country, and you carn't provide the EXACT figure"

    How about…..PICK UP PHONE……RING RBA……."Hi it JH here, greatest Treasurer this country has ever had………can you ask the girls in the typing pool what the current 90 day interest bill is?"

    "Its  21.39%"

    repeat 21.39%. in April 1982 ..the highest of any government in the history of australia

    I know…..i started a businesses in 1978….and yes I paid thru the nose………..

    BUT interest rates for home loans where held at 13.5% for home loans by government regulation, and of course John Howard realised this was not substainable.

    Why?

    Well how can 16.5% be offered to depositors for their money,
    and Home borrowers be charged 13.5%????

    IT CARN'T

    thats why……………………

    Extract Local Paper July 1982
    "Loans Hard to come by…
    banks are undoubtedly diverting new applicants for loans to more expensive forms of borrowing, such as personal loans or even hire purchase."

    15 – 20%….WOW……..

    ALL THIS UNDER  JOHN HOWARD AS TRESURER

    Hansard Mar 1982

    "BANK MORTAGE INTEREST RATES
    Mr WILLIS —My question to the Treasurer (J.Howard) concerns the Campbell Committee of Inquiry into the Australian Financial System and its conclusion that bank mortgage interest rates should be deregulated. Is the Treasurer aware that the Committee concluded that, with deregulation, bank mortgage rates would rise from their current level of 12 1/2 per cent to the Government bond rate, now at 15 per cent? Is the Treasurer also aware that a recent study by two economists at the Australian National University Centre for Economics Policy Research showed that at the interest rate levels prevailing last December deregulation would raise the average mortgage interest rate from 13.6 per cent to between 17 per cent and 18 per cent? In view of these horrendous interest rate consequences that would flow from deregulation and the great concern in the community about the future course of interest rates, will the Treasurer now assure the House that the Government will reject out of hand the Campbell Committee proposal for deregulation of interest rates?

    Mr HOWARD —I am aware of the conclusions reached in the Campbell Committee report . In fairness to the report I think I should point out to the honourable gentleman that the conclusion was that certain interest rates would suffer the rises suggested by the honourable gentleman, other interest rates could well fall and that it could well be that the average cost of money borrowed might not vary over time a great deal at all. I think in all the debate on this issue variations in the average cost of money over a period have to be borne in mind. I have made it clear on a number of occasions that the recommendations of the Campbell report are relevant to what the Government is looking at in the housing area. I do not intend to respond to the invitation of the honourable member for Gellibrand and in any way pre-empt a decision of the Cabinet at this time or at some future time on that or other recommendations of the Campbell report."

    And Yes, I did go thru the 1990 Keating recession

    While a lot of businesses where pumping money into Commerical properties like there was no tomorrow….
    I pumped it into my business…………..

    St.Kilda Rd Melbourne has bearly absorbed the 1990 office construction boom.

    The great thing about recessions……is BARGAINS….boy, can you buy bargains

    if your hocked up to the hilt………your gone
    for every loser…..there's a winner

    After 30 years of booms and busts, all I can say is………………..

    "For all the cr*p that John Howard has spun in 30 years in politics,
    this one……is the most truthful"

    (Hansard Dec1982)

    "Governments do not, of course, have complete control over economic events and cannot bear sole responsibility for economic outcomes."

    THANK YOU…..&   GOOD LUCK

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