All Topics / General Property / Observation; Property cycle repeating

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  • Profile photo of swampy30swampy30
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    @swampy30
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 85

    Hi Everyone,

    This is not a question, just an observation from someone who’s owned property for 15 years. When I bought my first PPOR in UK, it was at the peak of the housing cycle in 1989. I lived in it, made some small renos, and sold it (to emigrate to OZ)at the bottom of the cycle in 1994 for a measly 19% capital gain after 5 years. Now that same house has tripled in value back in good old UK. Moral of the story – don’t sell unless you have to!

    Having been thru the property cycle at least twice, and living thru the hype to the upside AND the downside, it makes me more confident of the long term, so long as I can afford to hold my properties for a few years until growth sets in again. I just won’t make the mistake again of selling too soon, especially if I am getting reasonable rental!

    But my point is, headlines have predicted housing crashes and property value falls before, and while no doubt things weren’t easy for people forced to sell, if you held on for the long term, growth in the housing market would start again. The cycle, which is becoming familiar to me, is repeating again. However, I won’t be making the same mistakes again (just different ones!)

    Profile photo of MonopolyMonopoly
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    @monopoly
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 1,612

    Hey Swampy,

    Property investing is cyclical by nature, and like you I too have seen these changes; having watched four of them since I was a teenager!!! I remember buying one property in a cool market for $175K and selling it a decade later for $925K.

    I personally don’t like that four letter word SELL [wacko] and I agree one should only do this when they have to, but if they can do it, when the market is up (regardless of whether they have to or not) then all the better!!!

    Property investing is a learned skill, involving much research and alot of patience. It is not a short term investment, and if you can take the bad times and turn them into good (opportunities) then success should follow closeby!!!

    Jo

    Profile photo of swampy30swampy30
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    @swampy30
    Join Date: 2003
    Post Count: 85

    Hi Monopoly,

    Yes, I agree, if you’re going to sell, better to do it at a time of growth. When I first started looking for an investment property, I suffered from a bad case of the nerves, just like so many other people have/are going thru – e.g. what if I can’t rent it, what if I lose my job, what if there’s a tidal wave that washes my house away!!!
    My other half said stop dithering and just do it if the numbers add up! So I did, heart in mouth!

    Well, 18 months after buying first IP, I’m buying my second, planning my third. All with careful planning, worst case scenarios worked out, insurances in place, etc.

    I just want to share with new/potential investors the fact that I felt some nerves but my head said numbers add up and my worst fears haven’t materialised (touch wood).

    It has helped me to remember the bad old days in 1994, because 10 years since, property prices demonstrably tripled. I know past performance isn’t a guarantee of future performance, but it’s certainly a good yardstick.

    Cheers

    Swampy30

    Profile photo of MonopolyMonopoly
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    @monopoly
    Join Date: 2004
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    Swampy you’re a legend!!!! [specool]

    Telling your story is priceless, and I am sure so many reluctant investors may read it and feel inspired enough to take the plunge (provided the numbers add up of course)!!! [whistle]

    There was a fantastic quote I stumbled on in this month API (Australian Property Investors) magazine, where a couple did as you did; crunched the numbers and then, heart in throat, [worried]dove in !!!

    “Plan for the worst case scenario, and in 99% cases it won’t happen” but at least if it does, you’re prepared!!! Soooooo true!!!

    Well done Swampy!!!! Keep up the good work!!!! [thumbsupanim]

    Jo

    P.S. Give your wife a pat on the back and a HUGE [kiss] kiss; why??? Because her pushing is evidence that behind every great man and his success story there is a woman!!!! [tongue]

    Profile photo of Mortgage HunterMortgage Hunter
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    @mortgage-hunter
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    P.S. Give your wife a pat on the back and a HUGE [kiss] kiss; why??? Because her pushing is evidence that behind every great man and his success story there is a woman!!!! [tongue]
    [/quote]

    A PUSHY woman [biggrin]

    Simon Macks
    Mortgage Broker
    http://www.mortgagehunter.com.au
    0425 228 985

    NODOC Loan – 65% Loan – No questions asked! 6.85% Rate!!

    Comments may not be relevant to individual circumstances. If you intend making any investment, financial or taxation decision you should consult a professional adviser.

    Profile photo of MonopolyMonopoly
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    @monopoly
    Join Date: 2004
    Post Count: 1,612
    Originally posted by MortgageHunter:

    P.S. Give your wife a pat on the back and a HUGE [kiss] kiss; why??? Because her pushing is evidence that behind every great man and his success story there is a woman!!!! [tongue]

    A PUSHY woman [biggrin]

    Hey, whatever works; go with it!!!! [winking]

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