Wot’s a Derivex?[blink]

Nah, just kidding![biggrin] Let’s not, as I for one would miss Robert’s persistant rebuttal of all posts doom and gloom! With the media stirring up negative sentiment for property investment and the economy, I find it refreshing to hear such adamant oprimisim!

Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

Originally posted by AUSPROP:
” Given house prices have risen by up to 30% per year recently”

F – where has this happened? I am assuming Sydney…. or are you talking Brisbane?
Nope, Brisbane: Suburbs on the move

A recent study of Brisbane’s most affordable suburbs in Australian Property Investor Magazine tipped the following as locations to w…[Read more]

Originally posted by AUSPROP:
Boosting inefficient exporters by devaluing currency is not a step forward improving the economy….but the alternative is raising interest rates – significantly. Which option would you prefer?
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

Originally posted by rumbiz:
Doom and Gloom in brisbane.( say the papers)….thanks for the tip….I’ll be checking out Brisbane for a bargain then Given house prices have risen by up to 30% per year recently, does a 4% median fall really bring the situation back to a “buyer’s market”?
Beware, today’s “bargain” is about to become tomorrow’s fair…[Read more]

What do you all think?Yes and no. The RBA doesn’t aim to ‘put the brakes on a strong economy’, it aims to keep inflation within it’s target band of 2 – 3%, and does so by varying the cash rate. Graph
You are correct in suggesting that an increase in interest rates currently has a huge impact on consumer spending and the economy* as a result of…[Read more]

The article is rubbish.
This Graph from the ABS shows that the number of OO loans approved during March was nowhere near record levels. The average price is simply higher than December 2002 (well, d’uh!), so the total new finance commitment is larger. Does anybody have an ABS subscription? I’d love to see the non seasonally adjusted figures.
Also,…[Read more]

Originally posted by The Mortgage Adviser:I’m actually inclined towards dmichies opinions
Seems like more and more people are agreeing with me [biggrin]

WOW!!!

One whole person has publicly agreed with you. Lets all be ‘selfish’ then!

Let it be on record that I wholeheartedly agree with every post I recall reading from dmichie.

Now Robert,…[Read more]

Yes, the pressure to keep IRs low (in support of domestic consumption) has all but evaporated. Possibly a couple of rate hikes to come this year? Now as for opportunities, if we can predict where the multi-billion dollar future fund is headed and get in early there should be some easy money to be made.
It will be interesting to see how the…[Read more]

Interesting stuff, thanks guys. I will pass the info on to my friend, and see what he thinks. He may be prepared to make the broker’s life very difficult… after all, he very clearly stepped over the ‘financial advice’ line on a number of occasions. That is what raised our suspicions that he might be benefiting from the IO situation.
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

I especially love it when the US stock market is in a downward trend. It is easy money!!!

[blink]

Sniff…. Sniff…
Is that hypocrisy I smell?

F.[cowboy2]

Yup, it sure does, especially if you are paying off some principal / offset. I asked because I recently helped a friend work out the difference between his then strategy of IO payments only and actual repayment with similar numbers to yours. The difference over 15 years was quite astonishing over a whole range of projected HPI and CPI…[Read more]

Have you noticed a trend in LPTs recently? Not perhaps the place for the majority of a pension portfolio perhaps? [blink]
F.[cowboy2]

Just out of curiosity, do you have some kind of strategy for repaying seven hundred and thirty odd thousand dollars of debt?
I’m interested in the ‘big picture’.
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

Originally posted by The Mortgage Adviser:The ‘jealous’ comment refers to property investors who actually make good money in all economic climates. Instead of preaching doom and gloom and sitting there with money in the bank earning nothing, they get on with it and have an educated go.

Instead of regurgitating other people’s negative economic…[Read more]

At a quick glance:
Roughly neutral gearing, roughly 55k gross profit, 50% CGT concession… Vendor tax thing…. I’d say you’d clear about 35k?

Whichever way I look at it, any guaranteed positive return on zero down is good, regardless of inflation!

If only life were so easy.

Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

Originally posted by wilandel:
There are going to be lots of Aussies left holding the baby! [cigar]

But surely capital appreciation will soon make up the difference even if investors pay 10% over the odds, no? Or has the NZ market hit a ceiling? If the latter, why on earth would anybody want to be left holding the baby, even if they negotiate 10%…[Read more]

Thanks for the link to the PMI report Robert, a good read, and supportive of the view that house prices will stagnate (fall in real terms) in most areas then fall moderately (sharply in real terms) throughout the country. Good stuff.
Regarding Mortgage broker bias, surely a booming property market is in their interest? Does not the dramatic fall…[Read more]

If statistics and graphs can prove any given argument, can someone please send me a link to anything at all showing house prices anywhere in Australia likely to rise over the next 5 years?
What about some workings applying the ‘doubling every seven to ten years’ rule from the current historically unprecedented high prices?

Seriously, if stats are…[Read more]

Originally posted by The Mortgage Adviser:
dmichie, that article does not support your claims. Why do you persist in posting it over and over and over again?
Perhaps if I point you to the relevant paragraphs:
In any case, even in our world of fat tailed distributions, we have only found 28 good examples of previous bubbles including: stock markets…[Read more]

I have clearly state 30-45% in real terms Robert. That is what it will take to return property values to trend. You can make the graphs yourself for your area using historic house price stats from your nearest Real Estate Institute and adjusting them for inflation (City & regional stats available from the ABS). Whack a trend line through it (make…[Read more]