Stagflation is merely a situation where an economy slows and prices rise.Merely? Rising consumer prices but an economy that cannot sustain wage inflation while redundancies increase?[blink] Far from rosey IMO.

May I ask what evidence of this you have seen?Current inflationary pressures are being masked by falling consumption & confidence, but…[Read more]

Further to the rosy outlook, these from News.com.au and AAP:

JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters said the market had largely expected the on-hold decision.
“We suspect the RBA has left policy unchanged for the past two months because there is mounting evidence the economy has hit an air pocket,” Mr Walters said.

National Australia Bank…[Read more]

‘Australian Dream’I think you’ll find that the ‘great American dream’ is quite similar as is the UK’s. The thing is that due to a wider gap between the rich and the poor in those countries, less are actually able to achieve the dream. The result is a far greater (almost unlimited) demand pool.

Regarding the state of the economy, if the outlook is…[Read more]

In the next 18 months, I believe real estate will trend back to the prices it should have been had we not had a boom.

Snap![biggrin]

Although I expect the correction to occur over a longer timeframe.

It’s not just the pointy end of development either. Watch the profit warnings roll in from the big building co’s. Things are starting to get…[Read more]

I’ve already linked over a dozen Australian articles Robert, but that one is fresh and does in fact clearly support a reversion to the historic house price – household income trend.

How would 1% after inflation and tax from a bank deposit be worse than 0% before inflation and holding costs for real estate?
Can’t say I follow your logic.

If you…[Read more]

Welcome to the forum Matt.

Now, let’s get back off-topic.

Here’s a quick rundown of our current situation as I see it.
The US is in strife, and they are under great pressure to support their dollar at any price. This is done by raising interest rates (note that this is less damaging to US homeowners due to the prevalence of 25+ year fixed…[Read more]

If the market is ‘flat’ ie house prices are not increasing, not decreasing, yet renting is far cheaper than buying, how does it not make sense to sell? By selling, you crystalise your profits and can invest elsewhere rather than letting inflation erode the gains of recent years. Many people would find that if they sold to rent, the bank interest…[Read more]

Some b@astard stole my wheelie bin, then came back a month later and stole my recycling bin.
Boo.[thumbsdownanim

F.[cowboy2]

As for going back ten years to check if this ‘system’ works, there is no point. The last ten years are no indication of the next ten years Correct. In fact all my research indicates that the next ten years (give or take) will simply see a reversion to the values of ten years ago.
I can’t wait to see how the banks react to the strategy of ‘living…[Read more]

Originally posted by The Mortgage Adviser:
that plan is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard!!!!!!!! I agree entirely.

‘Redrawing equity’ is a misnomer. Acquiring additional asset-secured debt is what you are actually doing. Acquiring debt to ‘fund wealth’ by purchasing growth assets can work well if you’re fully aware of the market in…[Read more]

Given that property generally doubles in price every 7-10 years it looks like your graph only confirms that growth. I certainly wouldn’t class it as extreme growth just the expected growth every property investor’s strategy seems to be based around*.

Oh dear, here we go again. Apologies to those who’ve already called me a broken record.
Your…[Read more]

you will never find a CF +ve property…that time has past.1) Never is a long time.
2) I disagree.

Adelaide has not experienced an extreme property boom like Sydney and Melbourne so may only be due to a minor correction in the future, I really cant see Adelaide prices dropping more than 10%1) The graph in this report illustrates that house prices…[Read more]

Once things hit rock bottom there’s only one way for them to go…. UP.
But then you have to start trying to figure out how long will the ‘rock bottom’ period last before growth starts up again.
Yes, that’s the tricky bit. Take Japan for example – when will their 14 year trend of declining property values be reversed? Residential real estate is…[Read more]

Originally posted by 1Winner:
Mm, interesting possibilities….. I wonder if anyone factored in his investment strategies the possibility of a super eruption in Yellowstone? I mean, according to the TV show I saw the other day it is overdue….[cigar]
It’s always doom and gloom with you isn’t it![biggrin]

F.[fear]

Yale apparently.
In a recent Yale University survey of home buyers in Los Angeles, for example, respondents said they expected their homes to increase by an average of 22 percent annually over the next decade, while more than two thirds said they feared being left out of the boom if they didn’t buy now. Recent buyers in Boston and San Francisco…[Read more]

Duckster why do you suggest using a fixed 7% pa for house price inflation but a floating index for consumer price inflation?
Are you suggesting that there is no relationship between the two?
Why would the yield be 4%?
I’m not having a go, just curious as to how such results are arrived at and whether they are useful.

Regards, F.[cowboy2]

Tip 1: Surface prep.
If you are laying on concrete, ensure it is completely flat – fill any chips/ gaps/ irregularities. If it’s prone to damp, Bondcrete.
On timber or particle board, make sure your cement sheeting is in good nick or replace it.

Tip 2: Lay lino.
Cut it to shape first using either a paper template or a measuring tape – can be…[Read more]

Of course 22% pa compounded annually over 10 years is roughly 630% growth:
Year 0 = $100k
Year 1 = $122k
Year 2 = $149k
Year 3 = $182k
Year 5 = $270k
Year 7 = $402k
Year 10 = $730,460!
The US has some of the world’s greatest minds, eh’ superman?
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

Then again:
a recent survey of buyers in Los Angeles indicated that they expected their homes to increase in value by a whopping 22% a year over the next decadePerhaps LA is the best place in the US to invest?
Source: The Economist

The article is a very good read (as you’d expect) relating to the state of the housing market in the US.
Cheers, F.[cowboy2]

DebtBubble has a few fascinating articles by a very credible (IMHO) financial wizard. Somewhat relevent too.