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  • Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Nigel Kibel wrote:</div>
    I am seeing great opportunities in the United States because the economy is improving and with a lot of Americans moving to states like Texas and Florida those economies would seem to have a bright future.

    Make hay while the suns shines because the weather is about to change for many.

    As I’ve mentioned many times under previous pseudonym’s the US economy is tanking and that will accelerate for the bottom 70% this year. Consumer CPI is off and running led by food prices. The widening drought situation and water shortages could actually intensify and the good ol’ days of dust storms and soil erosion as in the 30′s is beginning to happen again. Texas agriculture is a shadow of its former self. Fracking has a finite shelf life and oil volumes have been declining although we could see a serious spike in oil prices soon if the Iraq/Syria debacle isn’t contained. Throw in what appears to now be a serious and overt attack on the US dollar reserve status things are looking decidedly risky for anything involving the US.

    Texas and Florida are benefiting from flight from poverty as people look for better opportunities. Engelo’s Toledo is a good example of population contraction in rust belt states. They’re moving to places like Florida because the news on the grapevine is telling them there are more and better opportunities there.

    The prime risk for the US now is a declining dollar and rising energy costs. In tandem they’ll reek a fair amount of pain and misery in a country that already is 3rd world in many parts. When Mex illegals start heading back to Me’hico you know things aren’t too bright.

    Hey Cat,

    Do you mean this Toledo?
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toledo,_Spain

    I haven’t bought that one yet :)

    Vamonos…. hehe

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    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    cat
    the Mexicans have already fled.. on the West coast were they represent a huge labor pool… When construction tanked they went back home by the 1,000s now that building is boomin again we have an acute labor shortage and the Mexicans are coming back to fill that need.

    Profile photo of sciencesurfsciencesurf
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    So yes you can absorb the negative affects of global economics but how much can you take and for how long? My guess is that you’re going to see more obvious signs of that impact over the next 18 months – 2 yrs

    “Sell me this pen”..

    Ummm, well, its a nice pen. Ahhh, Ahhh, you can use the pen to write down thoughts from your life..

    “Sell me this pen”

    Well, this pen works.. And I personally love this pen…

    I have to say your argument is losing traction. Those high level investors that are sitting on the sidelines, and supposedly have been since your argument first started, must have too much money – literally no need to make a play. Half a decade of non-investment in property, in the hope of being right doesn’t seem too smart to me.

    What I have learnt from all your communication is the inherent risk at play. To be aware, to evaluate every step, to plan for the future and have a Plan B if everything was to crumble. And I thank you for that. It certainly wouldn’t have come from the others who have their fingers deep in the pie.

    I am Gen Y. I have sat on the sidelines for many years – paying down someone else’s mortgage. Knowing zip about ‘positive gearing’ or even how to use a rip saw. If I hadn’t made the play when I did the ‘big loss’ would have been due to the ‘missing knowledge’. All the acquired skill set learnt due to everything surrounding property investment/economics/renovation. People learn from doing. I think thats what you miss in all this. You take those skills for granted Cat.

    And if everything was to fall – I may have developed some knowledge to find a way out.

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    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    Hey Cat,

    Check this article out:

    Ohio cities amongst the most undervalued markets in the US. http://www.businessinsider.com/over-and-undervalued-housing-markets-in-us-2014-6?utm_content=buffer28a8d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer#ixzz35ZgjMZi4

    These low prices can’t last forever. Just submitted a $12,000 offer on a 2 story 3 bed, 1 bath house.

    900sqft lot. If accepted will look at moving into this one. Needs around $10,000 on first glance. A few comps around the corner just sold to owner occupiers in the mid $40,000s.

    Solid B class and very desirable area due to close proximity to Washington Local school district.

    Ill do a professional video (iphone haha) for you if I get the offer accepted. Would rent for $750 – $800

    How can you go wrong with such low prices???

    Thanks for reading

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 5 months ago by Profile photo of EngeloRumora EngeloRumora.
    • This reply was modified 8 years, 5 months ago by Profile photo of EngeloRumora EngeloRumora.

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    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    Hi cat

    Interesting however quite a few cities and states had strong growth last year so it could be that in some parts are just leveling out again. I don’t think anyone wants a repeat of 2008.

    Now you talk about a low dollar but is that not in the US interest. If the dollar stays low then it is better for exports imports also become more expensive. I have read reports that indicate that a lot of companies that were manufacturing off shore are now returning to the United States. After all with a population of 315 million there is still a strong population base.

    In terms of Mexicans is not there a lot of concern that the number of illegals coming across the border is actually increasing at present.

    I am not saying that America does not have problems. Because of state rights it seems almost impossible to get a lot of reform through. Clearly he US would benefit from a major change to there tax system especially with a GST. However there is an inability to even make moderate changes. However the American have always been innovative and there is a national pride that may force them into action. It is still the strongest economy in the world and I do see investment opportunities there, but sure like anywhere there are problems

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 5 months ago by Profile photo of Nigel Kibel Nigel Kibel.

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    Profile photo of sciencesurfsciencesurf
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    Awesome cash flow Engelo!

    It got me thinking though.

    Assuming initial purchase cost $12000 + $10000 Reno = $22000

    Revalue $40000 upon completion.

    Lets say the Toledo property goes up 10% per year for the next 3 years, compounded. You make around $15k in unrealised capital gain on top of the $18k after the reno.

    Is this worth all the time and risk? Be interesting to know the gross yield on this one to see if you’re making up for it in positive cash flow.

    Would you say compounding is more effective on Australian properties selling for much larger figures? I know if i made $15 grand for three years in the market I would be less than impressed.

    Next week I begin my next reno project on the Sunshine Coast. 1 week – in and out. Total spend $5000 with projections of capital increase of 4 to the dollar. Your’s is barely gonna hit 1:2.

    I havn’t got my head around US realestate yet. Please let me know if i’m completely off the mark and missing something.

    Cheers

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 5 months ago by Profile photo of sciencesurf sciencesurf.

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    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    It already fell :)

    Picked it up and slicing through everything now hehe

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    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    Hey Cat,

    Many tech companies have moved and are moving into Ohio.

    Don’t make me pull all of the articles. Apple is starting to establish quite a huge presence in Dayton.

    The rent is so affordable they can’t resist.

    Thanks

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    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    Awesome cash flow Engelo!

    It got me thinking though.

    Assuming initial purchase cost $12000 + $10000 Reno = $22000

    Revalue $40000 upon completion.

    Lets say the Toledo property goes up 10% per year for the next 3 years, compounded. You make around $15k in unrealised capital gain on top of the $18k after the reno.

    Is this worth all the time and risk? Be interesting to know the gross yield on this one to see if you’re making up for it in positive cash flow.

    Would you say compounding is more effective on Australian properties selling for much larger figures? I know if i made $15 grand for three years in the market I would be less than impressed.

    Next week I begin my next reno project on the Sunshine Coast. 1 week – in and out. Total spend $5000 with projections of capital increase of 4 to the dollar. Your’s is barely gonna hit 1:2.

    I havn’t got my head around US realestate yet. Please let me know if i’m completely off the mark and missing something.

    Cheers

    Hi sciencesurf,

    Thanks for your post reply.

    Toledo and the US market should only be considered as a cashflow play. I would never recommend to anyone investing in US real estate with the hopes that they will see the market appreciating in the near future.

    The cashflow on this particular deal and many others is stupidly big when compared with the Australian market.

    Rent – $750pm x 12 = $9,000

    Expenses:
    Management = $1,000pa
    Taxes: $1,000pa
    Insurance: $500pa
    Other: $1,000pa

    NET= $6,500 / $22,000 = 30% yield

    Just as an FYI I maxed up all expenses. I will most likely self manage if we don’t move in and the “Other” expense i just put in the for FUN haha

    With a 30% yield there really isn’t any need for growth.

    Cashflow is KING IMO.

    The income can be re-invested into more properties and they can all compound together.

    Imagine owning 20-30 of these with all cash. That’s my goal that I am working towards.

    Please feel free to go to my personal website and under the blog tab you will find the my most recent post I had published regarding this exact same topic we are discussing now.

    Thanks for reading and have a great day.

    ps. It took me a long time to wrap my head around investing in the US and how it all works ;)

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    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    Personally I stay away from the bottom end of the market. I think there are good opportunities without going to the bottom. Often really cheap properties are in really poverty ridden areas. Remember if you cannot collect the rent its not a good deal.

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    Profile photo of sciencesurfsciencesurf
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    Hi Engelo,

    Thanks for your reply. Cash flow is king – catchy phrases and royalist words..

    Toledo and the US market should only be considered as a cashflow play. I would never recommend to anyone investing in US real estate with the hopes that they will see the market appreciating in the near future.

    That’s really interesting to read. I don’t think I have once read that ‘in print’ from a US based investor. I guess that negates some of the risk of investing in property. All you need is for the US economy to ‘hold in there’ :)

    The cashflow on this particular deal and many others is stupidly big when compared with the Australian market.

    Percentages are only relevant to the capital they are based off. 30% net yield in the US could be equivalent to a much smaller yield in Australia. For example, after expenses/depreciation we are pulling close to $3k cash-flow per year for one of our Sunshine Coast investments. It sits at a ‘measly’ 7%.

    Are you worried you might be missing the leverage you can gain in Australia? Some Buyers Agents promote positive cash flow as a sweetener to the deal – not a reason to buy – The old to make money in real-estate you need to buy into capital growth. Minimise your holding costs, choose the right location and time to invest’. etc.

    Rent – $750pm x 12 = $9,000

    Expenses:
    Management = $1,000pa
    Taxes: $1,000pa
    Insurance: $500pa
    Other: $1,000pa

    NET= $6,500 / $22,000 = 30% yield

    Closer to $5500 but whose counting ;)

    The income can be re-invested into more properties and they can all compound together.

    I like this notion. Re-investing with cash made from positive properties is difficult in Australia. Most investors choose to access equity from other properties for future purchases – on the pretext of tax deduct-ability. Your method seems a lot ‘cleaner’. Slowly building an empire. Reinvesting with cash only is the smartest strategy I’ve come across so far. I can understand why you thought twice about buying the Go Pro :)

    Imagine owning 20-30 of these with all cash. That’s my goal that I am working towards.

    Theoretically awesome, in practice, possibly not that easy. As the Cat mentions, don’t US tenants scare you!?
    Good luck to you mate!

    We bought our first two houses with cash deposits (40k each). At the going Toledo rate I might have had 5-6 properties by now!

    I will definitely check out your blog. If the ‘Cat’ holds you in high esteem you must be doing things right.

    Cheers

    • This reply was modified 8 years, 5 months ago by Profile photo of sciencesurf sciencesurf.

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    Profile photo of jayhinrichsjayhinrichs
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    Dr. Suess this same argument has been played out a million times with California investors.. That get pounded by mid west and east coast companies to invest in their cash flow markets… Same price points you enjoy in OZ and the same scenario IE

    Is it better to buy a property that is neutral to negative gear ( we call it negative or Neutral CASH FLOW) Gear to us is on a bicycle or a manual transmission car :)… Any ways CA is the same when you buy there its usually negative GEar or Cash flow but the properties will in the right part of the cycle go up in value substantially in a short period of time.

    Although the values also crashed in 07 to 09.. so those buying at the bottom have made some pretty nice capital growth.. And the homes are sold to Owners not landlords.. that is the biggest difference in West coast and Mid west or East coast cash flow towns.. The retail sales to Homeowners is not nearly as strong in those markets as in the West coasts.

    One simple thing to keep in mind…. In a town lets pick one that has been popular for AU investors “Memphis TN” TAke a guess at how many Detached single family homes are used as rentals ( no clue well its above 50%) and this does not include apartment blocks..

    Now go to any town in the WEst coast be it CA OR WA La. SF PDX..SEA the amount of single family detached homes that are bought by investors for rentals.. Is between 5% and 15% of total housing stock… And the reason its that high is because of the crash….

    So what this does is create demand from a true RETAIL owner occ market were in the Mid west there is a HUGE dividing line from where todays home owner is going to buy and where that inventory is… The reality is those that can afford to own and buy a home even in the Mid west will be buying at the median and above not lower end… The lower end is cash flow and will continue to be cash flow rental type markets. So to make the assumption that you can buy a lower end home in any place in the US and it will cash flow AND go up in value 10% a year is just pure speculation and wishful thinking and not truly knowing he market place. The only way a cash flow rental goes up in value is based on rental returns.. NOt on markets moving north.. If the rents go up substantially values will rise but these markets are very stable in rent rates.. and really do not move and have not moved more than 10 to 20% in the last 20 years.

    Same with doing commercial deals in the US like Nigel is doing its all about CAP rate and back into value… NO rents and value is low or will be less than what you paid for it. High rents that are collected and or value add and value will rise.

    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    Figures are are always good until they trash the place or turn it into a meth lab ;-)

    In management there’s a term called ‘span of control’. This refers to how many things/people a manager has under their command/responsible for. Outcomes usually deteriorate as span of control increases. A manager for example with 5 people is far more effective and productive than one with 25. Same goes for portfolio sizes. 20 – 30 Toledo properties is equivalent to only 2 in Australia. You can see the risk profile of something happening goes up exponentially. So 6500/yr sounds really good but $6500 worth of damage can be done in the blink of an eye and with little effort.

    Something to consider is that 30 properties at say $5k apiece is only $150k. If I had $500k invested I’d want a lot more than that to keep me happy.

    Individual numbers look attractive but at the end of the day portfolio performance is the criteria you need to look at.

    Beware of catchy phrases like ‘cash is king’. They are meaningless and distract many from focusing on the other issues like preserving capital. In markets like these your capital can disappear or diminish faster than you can exit.

    I give you a better than even chance of doing OK Grasshopper but there’s high levels of risk everywhere. The single best thing going for you is that you are on the ground in amongst it.

    Thanks Cat,

    Ill take “better than even chance” from you all day long haha

    Have a great day.

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    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    Personally I stay away from the bottom end of the market. I think there are good opportunities without going to the bottom. Often really cheap properties are in really poverty ridden areas. Remember if you cannot collect the rent its not a good deal.

    Thanks Nigel,

    Please feel free to click on the link and go up and down the street and let me know if you would consider this a “bottom” poverty ridden area?

    https://www.google.com/maps/@41.69973,-83.573364,3a,75y,4.85h,81.43t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1s4xqsgjEcgUqt9C3V3BMBHA!2e0

    As mentioned my girlfriend and myself are looking at moving into this zip. My mother is also coming to visit and spend quite some time with us.

    I wouldn’t consider my mum, girlfriend or myself to be hood rats haha

    Thanks and have a great day.

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    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    Hi Engelo,
    Hi Science,

    Please see my replies below in bold

    Thanks for your reply. Cash flow is king – catchy phrases and royalist words..
    That Cat already smashed me on the “Cash is King” phrase haha

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>EngeloRumora wrote:</div>
    Toledo and the US market should only be considered as a cashflow play. I would never recommend to anyone investing in US real estate with the hopes that they will see the market appreciating in the near future.

    That’s really interesting to read. I don’t think I have once read that ‘in print’ from a US based investor. I guess that negates some of the risk of investing in property. All you need is for the US economy to ‘hold in there’ :)
    It all comes down to the people you work with on the ground and that the numbers you are buying into suit your end goal. Buying in a particular area based on hope that it will go up in value is not a sustainable way moving forward IMO.

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>EngeloRumora wrote:</div>
    The cashflow on this particular deal and many others is stupidly big when compared with the Australian market.

    Percentages are only relevant to the capital they are based off. 30% net yield in the US could be equivalent to a much smaller yield in Australia. For example, after expenses/depreciation we are pulling close to $3k cash-flow per year for one of our Sunshine Coast investments. It sits at a ‘measly’ 7%.
    Ill just say this. The average person can live a very very decent lifestyle anywhere in the Midwest with earning $40,000 – $60,000pa. Based on the deal example I provided around 10 properties ($250,000 – $300,000 cash approx) would need to be owned outright for these numbers to be hit.

    Are you worried you might be missing the leverage you can gain in Australia? Some Buyers Agents promote positive cash flow as a sweetener to the deal – not a reason to buy – The old to make money in real-estate you need to buy into capital growth. Minimise your holding costs, choose the right location and time to invest’. etc.
    I have had a similar mindset before and would never follow it again lol. My experience has led me to believe that all real estate investing should be only cashflow based. Any appreciation is just a bonus. There are many ways to skin a cat (freckle), this is just how I prefer to do it.

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>EngeloRumora wrote:</div>
    Rent – $750pm x 12 = $9,000

    Expenses:
    Management = $1,000pa
    Taxes: $1,000pa
    Insurance: $500pa
    Other: $1,000pa

    NET= $6,500 / $22,000 = 30% yield

    Closer to $5500 but whose counting ;)
    I knew quitting school at 14 was a bad idea hahaha

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>EngeloRumora wrote:</div>
    The income can be re-invested into more properties and they can all compound together.

    I like this notion. Re-investing with cash made from positive properties is difficult in Australia. Most investors choose to access equity from other properties for future purchases – on the pretext of tax deduct-ability. Your method seems a lot ‘cleaner’. Slowly building an empire. Reinvesting with cash only is the smartest strategy I’ve come across so far. I can understand why you thought twice about buying the Go Pro :)
    Build a strong foundation with cash only and then later on look at leveraging and taking higher risk. Want a decent stream of $$$ coming in every month first tho. I have been down the road of pulling out equity to purchase more deal and decided to pull out of that strategy very quickly. That strategy was one of main causes that brought the US real estate market to its knees. Unless you can have a decent surplus of $$$ coming in after the refinance I wouldn’t do it ever.

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>EngeloRumora wrote:</div>
    Imagine owning 20-30 of these with all cash. That’s my goal that I am working towards.

    Theoretically awesome, in practice, possibly not that easy. As the Cat mentions, don’t US tenants scare you!?
    Good luck to you mate!
    They don’t scare me where I am investing as they will probably be my neighbors when I move into the area lol. I have in the past collected rents in very very bad areas. Having an Aussie accent you can get away with murder in the US. I could probably get through to Obama if I tried calling the White House haha

    We bought our first two houses with cash deposits (40k each). At the going Toledo rate I might have had 5-6 properties by now!
    Well done on your purchases. Its a very different world out here than back home in Aus. As mentioned before there are many ways to skin freckle (sorry I meant Cat) haha

    I will definitely check out your blog. If the ‘Cat’ holds you in high esteem you must be doing things right.
    We go way back. I admire his very rude and brutal approach sometime haha jokessss

    Cheers

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    Profile photo of sciencesurfsciencesurf
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    So what this does is create demand from a true RETAIL owner occ market were in the Mid west there is a HUGE dividing line from where todays home owner is going to buy and where that inventory is… The reality is those that can afford to own and buy a home even in the Mid west will be buying at the median and above not lower end… The lower end is cash flow and will continue to be cash flow rental type markets. So to make the assumption that you can buy a lower end home in any place in the US and it will cash flow AND go up in value 10% a year is just pure speculation and wishful thinking and not truly knowing he market place. The only way a cash flow rental goes up in value is based on rental returns.. NOt on markets moving north.. If the rents go up substantially values will rise but these markets are very stable in rent rates.. and really do not move and have not moved more than 10 to 20% in the last 20 years.

    Interesting perspectives Jay. Thanks for your thoughts.

    The ‘hypothetical’ speculation was written purely to contrast the fact there is no point hoping to make money in some US real-estate off capital appreciation. If there was to be a 3 year boom in Mid-west real-estate you would make next to nothing compared to the average growth in Australian real-estate. I realise speculative comments are pointless.

    Do you think there is a similar divide between demographics for real-estate in Australia? Are owner occupied areas more sort after and therefore have a greater chance of capital growth? Seems like there is a big line in the sand between the ‘haves’ and have nots’ in the US – worsened by the plays made after the GFC.

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    Engelo,

    You crack me up! How to skin a freckle. Ouch!

    Thanks for your time in commenting. You have definitely got me thinking about PI strategies and US real-estate in a very different light.

    Cheers

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    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>EngeloRumora wrote:</div>
    Please feel free to click on the link and go up and down the street and let me know if you would consider this a “bottom” poverty ridden area?

    https://www.google.com/maps/@41.69973,-83.573364,3a,75y,4.85h,81.43t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1s4xqsgjEcgUqt9C3V3BMBHA!2e0

    It’s showing all the signs of urban decay. Another ten years and it’ll be another slum if things get any worse. The housing type is high maintenance and in a socioeconomically depressed hood/city/state the long term outcomes aren’t positive. It’s inner city bordering on the worst crime areas of Toledo

    It’s probably an average area for Toledo. In Auckland or Christchurch it’s where you’d expect to find Black Power and The Mongrel Mob.

    Having said that though it’s probably a good fit for your PI strategy. Lower middle class and predominantly white with low unemployment comparatively.

    I await your arrival mate.

    Taking you here http://www.mancys.com/

    Very old Italian mafiaso style place.

    Dinner will prob set me back 1 months rent hahaha

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    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    Engelo,

    You crack me up! How to skin a freckle. Ouch!

    Thanks for your time in commenting. You have definitely got me thinking about PI strategies and US real-estate in a very different light.

    Cheers

    No prob at all science.

    If ok send me a message with your email and I will put you in our database to receive a weekly newsletter.

    We keep it real and not salesy with many funny post,etc…

    As for Freckle ;) – You heard it “Better than even chance”

    He likes me hahahahaha

    EngeloRumora | Ohio Cashflow
    http://ohiocashflow.com/
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "Make a PASSION an OBSESSION and you'll never work a day in your life"

Viewing 20 posts - 41 through 60 (of 71 total)

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