All Topics / Overseas Deals / Not long now…..

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  • Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    The China story continues…

    • …On the outskirts of Tangshan, a city of 7 million people that makes more steel a year than the whole of the United States, the hulking cranes and chimneys at the Qingquan Steel mill are frozen in inactivity. Workers unpaid for six months went on strike in October and haven’t returned.

    • “In Tangshan and other parts of Hebei, the private mills are facing the most difficult time in their history,” said Xu. “Profits are poor and producers are all losing money – this has nothing to do with environmental measures: it is the economy.”

    …housing price growth decelerating. This is not a major issue in itself however coupled with rapidly rising non performing loans, bankruptcies, defaults and bail-outs things look precarious at best. If this was a simple problem it would have been solved relatively quickly but as conditions go from bad to worse only the most pragmatic optimist with a severe case of cognitive dissonance and an intractable faith in command economy theory would believe this problem is nothing to worry about.

    Profile photo of JpcashflowJpcashflow
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    Hey My Freckle,

    Long time no speak, I am not longer at my other company, here is my new email for you anyway [email protected]

    On Thursday their is going to be some big news with Qantas and with any one saying that the Australian economy is looking good are not only lying to other but themselves.

    Jpcashflow | JP Financial Group
    http://www.jpfinancialgroup.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Your first port of call in finance :)

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Jpcashflow wrote:
    Hey My Freckle,

    Long time no speak, I am not longer at my other company, here is my new email for you anyway [email protected]

    Jump ship or pushed??

    Quote:
    On Thursday their is going to be some big news with Qantas and with any one saying that the Australian economy is looking good are not only lying to other but themselves.

    Q's in big trouble and the govt's coffers are straining. Big layoffs are coming I hear. Another kick in the head for Melbourne. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    This isn't helping things…

    Late 2014 things will start to get much more interesting  as iron ore prices slide and especially if China drifts into crises mode.

    Profile photo of jmsracheljmsrachel
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    Freckle where have you been? Mate you worry too much. Didn’t your mother ever sing you Doris Day “que sera sera what ever will be will be”. If everything is rosey than life would be boring. It will sort it self out and tomorrow is another day.

    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    hahahaha

    or "Tomorrow tomorrow I love you tomorrow your only a day awayyyyy.

    haha

    Thanks

    EngeloRumora | Ohio Cashflow
    http://ohiocashflow.com/
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    "Make a PASSION an OBSESSION and you'll never work a day in your life"

    Profile photo of EngeloRumoraEngeloRumora
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    Might be a good buying opportunity for Qantas stock ayyyy?

    Would they really let the Kangaroo logo (Aussie symbol) just got bust like that?

    Thanks

    EngeloRumora | Ohio Cashflow
    http://ohiocashflow.com/
    Email Me | Phone Me

    "Make a PASSION an OBSESSION and you'll never work a day in your life"

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    jmsrachel wrote:
    Didn't your mother ever sing you Doris Day "que sera sera what ever will be will be".

    The old girl was a good old girl but a hard tough taskmaster. One indelible memory I have as a youngster was her standing over me after giving me one hellova thrashing for some crime I can't recall and saying,  'I'll swing for you one day". 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    …and the European dimension to this saga continues on its not so merry way…

    France is the second largest economy in Europe and 5th largest in the world. With Holland running things …what could possibly go wrong????

    Profile photo of jmsracheljmsrachel
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    Freckle what do you reckon of Melbourne with all these job lose?. I think Melbourne is due for a recession soon.

    Profile photo of JpcashflowJpcashflow
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    Melbourne is in a recession 

    Jpcashflow | JP Financial Group
    http://www.jpfinancialgroup.com.au
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Your first port of call in finance :)

    Profile photo of kylermricekylermrice
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    Tech is the future, just need a reset in the states to get rid of the Fed and big gov!  Killing this country!

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Jpcashflow wrote:
    Melbourne is in a recession 

    And the contraction will continue for Vic (AU in general) for the foreseeable future. Globally we have over supply and over production. As demand decreases on global increases in both unemployment and underemployment (underemployment is rising in Australia faster than unemployment) the race to depreciate currencies and out-compete the next guy to hold or reduce losses in market share intensifies. 

    The last 3 decades were marked by loose credit policy and consequently a credit bubble has grown to the point it either pops (crash) or deflates. Either way the next 3 decades are likely to be marked by contracting economies (real not nominal). We saw it in the first 50 years of the 1900's. The next 50 of this century could look remarkably similar.

    PInvestors will need to get their head around the new normal and adapt their strategies to suit. Those who think the old methods will work are likely to fall by the wayside. 

    Two things are holding up RE in AU (especially Syd & Melb) at the moment: foreign hot money and investors. I expect to see a surge in foreign money over the next 12 – 18 months as things turns south in an increasing number of countries but then it could very well simply dry up. At that point RE markets loose a leg under them and the other leg (investors) could quickly leave the market as well. Under that scenario I don't see how RE markets can hold up but I've been surprised before. 

    Three and half years ago I suggested that things would go pear shaped given the crazy distortions in the market place. 12 months ago that prediction started to take shape. I see no sign yet that there is anything at all capable of stopping the decline in economic conditions either globally or nationally. On the contrary. Everything I see only suggests the downward forces are accelerating in both number and extent.

    Not long now could mean next week or 10 years from now. In a lifetime neither is a long time but if I was a betting man I'd say the timing is closer to the next week end of the scale than the 10 years from now end.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Rome Is On The Verge Of Detroit-Style Bankruptcy

    On the first day of his premiership, Matteo Renzi had to withdraw a decree, promulgated by his predecessor, that would have helped the city of Rome fill an €816 million ($1.17 billion) budget gap, after filibustering by opposition lawmakers in the Parliament on Wednesday signaled the bill had little likelihood of passing.

    Devising a new decree that provides aid to Rome will now cost Mr. Renzi time and political capital he intended to deploy in promoting sweeping electoral and labor overhauls during his first weeks in office.

    For Rome's city fathers, though, the setback has more dire consequences. They must now face unpalatable choices—such as cutting public services, raising taxes or delaying payments to suppliers—to gain time as they search for ways to close a yawning budget gap. If it fails, the city could be placed under an administrator tasked with selling off city assets, such as its utilities.

    "It's time to stop the accounting tricks and declare Rome's default," said Guido Guidesi, a parliamentarian from the Northern League, which opposed the measure.

    ….somebody pass the popcorn.

    Profile photo of Long JohnLong John
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    As China comes off the gas the property boom is now going into reverse

    A Chinese property crash has begun

    Given that something like 47% of iron ore consumption goes into construction a pullback in residential high rise would see significant pressure on Fe ore prices. One of the unknowns is if Chinese PI’s will sell up to cover losses at home or will we see an even greater move offshore . High Rise Harry puts their sales at 70%. Personally I can’t see the Chinese PI wave maintaining local market momentum over the medium to long term

    graphic

    • This reply was modified 5 years, 12 months ago by Profile photo of Long John Long John.
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