Not long now…..

Robots and automation are threats to job creation but that has been the case for some decades now. The latest threat is on demand production at the consumers location either at a personal level or for more sophisticated items at a local hub level.

think 3D printing…or as its being called – additive manufacturing (AM)

.

Researchers at Oxford just published an analysis assessing what jobs might be computerized in the future. Their conclusion: a staggering 47% of the US workforce, spanning a range of career types. There are vigorous debates about outsourcing, but increasingly, computerization may grow as a factor affecting employment conditions.

• The distribution of BLS 2010 occupational employment over the probability of
• computerisation, along with the share in low, medium and high probability categories. Note
• that the total area under all curves is equal to total US employment.

In The Man in the White Suit, Alec Guinness invents a suit that never has to be cleaned or replaced. London’s tailors and dry cleaners angrily chase him down in the street  to destroy his invention. They are relieved when the suit finally starts to unravel, since the fiber’s design is flawed. Productivity improvements are great things, but there might be a point at which too much power shifts to capital over labor. Anyway, when you think about a career, remember that in some professions, eventually a computer might be able to do it too, or reduce the economic value of you doing it (e.g., the impact of the internet on print journalism).

Yep. We take for granted a lot of the things that are being automated. When grocery stores started with self serve check outs it was a fiasco as people grappled with the complexity of working the touch screens and methods employed to prevent theft. That was over a year ago now and that system was 10 years in the planning if I remember correctly. It simply took time for the hardware and software to mature to a point that made it attractive. Throw in a big motivator like falling margins and you can see the pressures big stores are under to continually grow their business. Today these automated check outs work fairly smoothly. The next iteration you won't even have to touch your stuff. it will simply have proximity tags (much like dogs and cats). You walk through a scanner wave your paywave card as you go through and its done just like that.

Current technology let alone new technology has the potential to replace 50% of the work force… who thinks that's not going to happen? So where do those 50% find a job??

A high priority goal of business is to eliminate the need for workers through technology period.

It's still in its early stages Joe. Theft is a problem regardless of check out system. Product tagging will advance this system and make theft even more difficult. These labels are all RFID (radio frequency identification)

The average shrinkage rate in the supermarket and grocery sector was 2.54 % of total annual sales in 2011. That is a lot for an industry that has an average sales margin of only 3%. It is in fact the highest, or let us rather say the worst, score of all retail sectors.

In the supermarket and grocery sector the causes of shrinkage are estimated to be:

• internal theft 44%,
• shoplifting 33.3%,
• administration and paperwork errors 9.9%
• and vendor fraud 6.3%.

The rest is believed to come from credit card, internet, refund frauds etc.

Technology is moving anti theft systems into an end-to-end supply chain approach. We are nearing a time when individual items will be tagged, labeled or chipped at source and then tracked through out the system from producer/manufacturer to consumer.

Jeez China is starting to get downright scary to say the least..

The $23 Trillion Credit Bubble In China Is Starting To Collapse – What Next?

one of the reasons I moved back to NZ was;

• the economy was improving
• it's still mainly a food (agricultural) based economy and demand is growing regardless of economic factors
• it's small (4+ million) and that means we get to sell to a 7 Billion global market
• politicians are less detestable and some of the least corrupted in the world. We rank 3rd globally in the corruption stakes
• moderate climate, not too cold or too hot
• we are far enough away from everything to be unaffected by most things like pollution, illegal immigration etc
• quality of life is considerably better than AU
• we have things that scare other people away (earthquakes)
• wilderness
• low population density

and many other little things that make life here that much easier if things do go belly up.

Aggh Grasshopper… still much to learn.

It does what it's doing now….imploding. Over capacity and over production. While it may be cheaper to do some things in other countries that's still a minute fraction of Chinese production. The one edge the US has is energy costs (30% of Chinese). The problem with that is that it's based on cheap shale gas. Two problems with shale gas is that it's extremely expensive to extract (the reality is that explorers are losing money) and it has very short productive field life… around 5-10 years. So while the US MSM convinces the sheeple that US manufacturing is on the cusp of a renaissance in manufacturing the reality is far gloomier and any jobs created will be few and far between. Automation will see to that.

The main problem for manufacturing though is that globally we have an enormous over production in 'stuff' and a decline in wealth among those who are the consumers of 'stuff'.

My son said that to me the other day. Wants me to partner him in a net based retail operation out of Thailand. I said no but happy to help him out and point him in the right direction. I'm looking for the quiet life.

Thailand is fairly cheap like many Asian towns once you get out of the tourist traps and access local pricing as opposed to prices for tourists and foreigners. The lad luvs it up there. He's just moved from Phuket on the South Western coast up to Chiang Mai in the northern hinterland. modern 2 bedroom unit AU$250/mth, food's like $3 a feed, rents a scooter for $20/wk, internet about $25/mth no limit… kids in heaven.. Seems like every nice Thai girl would like to marry a white foreigner so female friends abound… kids having a ball… think I'll have to go visit him some time