All Topics / Overseas Deals / Japan (and its Real-Estate market) Rides Again

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  • Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
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    But but but sir… it's different in Japan.

    Architect of Japanese Quantitative Easing Policy Says QE HARMS the Economy In the Long-Run … and that the Fed Is Stuck In a QE Trap

    Posted on October 23, 2013 by WashingtonsBlog

    • These are not even new insights. We’ve known for literally hundreds of years that the types of actions which the Federal Reserve, Treasury and White House have been taking would lead to disaster.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Sorry freckle, not ignoring you, just busy working. Will come out and play soon, promise.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    zmagen wrote:
    ….busy working.

    Work? What’s that? I got off the hamster wheel a while back. The way the Yen’s going you might be on it for a while yet ;-)

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Yup, and your milkshake brings all the boys to the yard, too. Who's playing the man now? Seems to me, if work is something that we do for personal fulfillment, the amount of time you dedicate to contradicting everybody here counts big time. As promised, will come out and play soon.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    zmagen wrote:
    Seems to me, if work is something that we do for personal fulfillment,….

    Not me. 'Work' was first and foremost a means to an end – income. While personal fulfillment might occur from time to time depending on what I was doing 99.9% of the time it was simply work. It appears most people see it that way also especially the Japanese.

    Respondents who have jobs were asked about their job satisfaction. Japan’s job satisfaction rate was 78%, but this figure was relatively low among the 32 countries/regions. They were also asked to rate their jobs from eight viewpoints including “My job is secure,” “My income is high,” and “My job is interesting.” Switzerland, the United States, and Ireland had relatively high ratings while Japan and the Republic of Korea are among the group with lowest ratings.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Financial version of Russian Roulette ????

    Your guys not mine.. I think Bass said exactly the same thing. It seems the BOJ and Bass are on the same page.

    What Will It Take To Blow Up The Entire Japanese Banking System? (Not Much, According To The Bank of Japan)

    Wednesday, October 23, 2013 at 7:54PM

    A 1 percentage point rise would cost megabanks ¥2.9 trillion, regional banks ¥3.2 trillion, and shinkin banks ¥1.9 trillion. A total of ¥8 trillion ($82 billion). If the yield curve steepened, with long-term rates rising 1 percentage point and short-term rates remaining low, the losses would be smaller. In all, it would be survivable. The banking system is safe.

    Whitewash doozie because it assumes a 1 percentage-point rise. The yield of the 10-year JGB would rise from todays 0.6% to 1.6%. With annual inflation hitting 2% soon, bondholders would still get sacked. Hence Mr. Hayakawa’s warning: if inflation hits 2%, long-term interest would likely head to 2% or 3%, and once they start rising, they’d “overshoot.” So, with a little overshoot, 10-year JGB yields might rise by 3 percentage points, to 3.6%. Still a very moderate interest rate, by historical standards. What would that do to the banking system?

    The report tells us what it would do: megabanks would be severely damaged; the rest of the banking system would be wiped out. If there is a parallel stock market crash, the megabanks would be wiped out as well.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    I must admit I had a bit of chuckle over this recent lambasting of our mate Abe San

    Looking For Japan's Radioactive Mutant Army

    Actually it is just Japan, because unlike Japan which still lives in the 80s and thinks it is a superpower,

    still thinks the Nikkei 30000 is just within reach, still thinks it can restart its 30 or so nukes, still thinks

    that buying Rock Center was a brilliant idea, and the Walkman and Trinitron are the second coming of

    the iPod, the other countries in the region know to keep their mouth shut when it's good for them.

    Abenomics, Fukishima and the soon to be Nuclear Olympics are making Japan the laughing stock of Asia.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Yup, the country's in complete meltdown.

    JAPAN DISPLAYING HEALTHY ECONOMIC GROWTH, A SUPER STRONG FINANCIAL SYSTEM, AND RISING LAND & PROPERTY PRICES

    Quote:

    …In Tokyo Metropolitan Area:

    The average price of new condominium units soared by 9.2% y-o-y to JPY686,000 (US$6,931) per square metre (sq. m.) in June 2013, based on figures released by the Land Institute of Japan (LIJ).

    The average price of existing condominium units rose by 5.9% to JPY399,700 (US$4,039) per sq. m. during the year to June 2013.

    The average price of existing detached houses was up by 1.5% to JPY32,130,000 (US$324,644) over the same period.

    In Osaka Metropolitan Area:

    The average price of new condominium units rose by 8.8% to JPY542,000 (US$5,476) per sq. m. during the year to June 2013.

    The average price of existing condominium units increased by 5% to JPY250,000 (US$2,526) per sq. m. over the same period.

    The average price of existing detached houses was down by just 0.5% to JPY20,000,000 (US$202,081) over the same period.

    Land prices are also rising. During the year to June 2013, the average price of land in Tokyo Metropolitan Area rose by 5.2% to JPY204,500 (US$2,066) per sq. m., while in Osaka Metropolitan Area the average land price increased by 2.3% to JPY132,000 (US$1,334) per sq. m…

    …Japan’s financial system is now in excellent shape. During Junichiro Koizumi’s prime ministership (2001 to 2006) tighter asset assessments of major banks caused a large decline in NPLs, from 8.7% of total loans in March 2002, to 1.4% in March 2008, according to the Financial Services Agency (FSA). Lending competition has also intensified, especially in metropolitan areas. Net result: housing loan costs have fallen…

    …The Japanese economy is projected to grow robustly in the coming years mainly due to the economic policies advocated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who came into power in December 2012. These economic policies, which are now widely referred to as “Abenomics”, include the following:

    Inflation targeting at 2%

    Correction of the excessive appreciation of the yen

    Setting negative interest rates

    Radical quantitative easing

    Expansion of public investment

    Buying operations of construction bonds by Bank of Japan

    Revision of the Bank of Japan Act

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
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    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    You forgot to include:

    Written by:

    Global Property Guide

    Says it all really.

    Hey I got a better one for you'

    Abenomics: putting Japan back on track

    I nearly wet my pants when I saw it was French and written by a technology lecturer at Sydney Uni… seriously you can't make this stuff up.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    If you want to peruse some real data (from the horses mouth)

    You might take a look at these

    http://tochi.mlit.go.jp/english/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/sokuhou_201305_en1.pdf.

    No doubt property has risen in some areas as hot money looks for a home. Problem is those increases will only stick for as long as the BOJ gooses the market AND retains control. Control being the key. As mentioned in previous posts the risk that the BOJ recognises is the fact a bond route means to suppress rates they will have to monetise JGB's to infinity. The risk is the currency crashes and ultimately faith in the currency evaporates and we see hyperinflation take hold.

    I'm sure the experts at the BOJ have got everything under control.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    You're spot-on, and Bass, your favourite messiah, is finally showing his true colors, too. His last sermon cracked me up –

    KYLE BASS – "JAPAN, CHINA, EUROPE ALL BAD, BAD, BAD – INVEST ONLY IN USA!!!"

    Guess you can't take Texas out of the boy after all :))))

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Jeez Ziv he's been singing that song for a year or more… where ya been son?

    The scary thing is your BOJ heros are starting to echo his opinion…

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Hey Ziv look at this. Now I know you're a fair way away from that nuclear wasteland they call Fukushima (as if you can eva be far enough away)

    I thought you might be interested in some protection tips…

    How to Help Protect Yourself from Fukushima Radiation

    I thought the lead sumo jock strap could be a winner over there.. trendy huh?

    <edited: moderator>

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Hot stuff, freck!! Let me know when these hit the shelves! :)

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    I guess the corporate kleptocracy aren't listening to Abe much these days. As if they ever did. Political leaders tend to do what corporates want not the other way around.

    Japan Salaries Extend Fall as Abe Urges Companies to Raise Wages

    Japan's salaries extended the longest slide since 2010, even as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe urges companies to raise workers’ wages as part of his bid to reflate the world’s third-largest economy.

    Regular wages excluding overtime and bonuses fell 0.3 percent in September from a year earlier, marking a 16th straight month of decline, according to labor ministry data released today.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    Alzheimer's again? Poor chap…just to reiterate – Japanese corporations are compensating with bonuses and overtime, in order to satisfy shareholders and management, who are cautious with irreversible moves like base wage hikes – a very Japanese approach – the complete packages are rising slightly – (no "move quick and break things" philosophies, they do it carefully, slowly, and with plenty of room to retract if things go bad – which is actually the right way to do it in my opinion) –

    JAPAN SEPTEMBER WAGES POST SLIGHT RISE ON OVERTIME

    Quote:
    …The total average monthly cash earnings per regular employee in Japan stood at a preliminary Y265,376 in September, up 0.1% from a year earlier, when wages were on a downtrend…Overtime pay rose 3.5% on year, the sixth straight gain. Bonuses and other special pay rebounded 6.4%, the first y/y rise in two months. Summer bonuses paid between June and August this year rose 0.3% from a year before to Y359,317, posting the first rise in three years…

    JAPAN CONSUMER PRICES RISE, PACE CLOSE TO FASTEST SINCE 2008, AS ABE DRIVES PICKUP

    Quote:
    …gauge of Japan’s prices ended four years of declines…Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 0.7 percent from a year earlier, a fourth straight gain and matching the median estimate of economists…

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    In terms of the inflation outlook for Japan this will be problematic. There is a belief that CB's can 'manage' inflation. The idea is almost laughable. CB's have only ever had limited success in this area. Anyone who thinks that after decades of deflation the BOJ has now discovered how to generate inflation and then control it is misguided to say the least. Experiments of this kind almost always produce unintended consequences.

    If the BOJ gets inflation going how does it then stop it without cutting it's own throat? Volker had to raise rates to 21% in the mid 80's to get inflation back under 5%. How do you think the BOJ will fair when rates start heading off to the back and beyond. It's the scenario Bass and many others have alluded to.

    QE coupled with inflation will strip the wealth of the 99% just as it is intended to.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    zmagen wrote:
    Alzheimer's again? Poor chap…just to reiterate – Japanese corporations are compensating with bonuses and overtime, in order to satisfy shareholders and management,

    Do you really believe that propaganda?? When in time has any business ever raised employee compensation to satisfy shareholders and management.  When you say stuff as naive as that I have a hard time taking you seriously.

    Profile photo of Ziv Nakajima-MagenZiv Nakajima-Magen
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    You misread – what I said was that the reason they are not raising base wages is to satisfy stake holders.

    as for the rest – your own subjective interpretations and assumptions, as always – so are mine, but at least I don't try to dress them up as the one true gospel ;) ain't no such thing.

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen | Nippon Tradings International (NTI)
    http://www.nippontradings.com
    Email Me | Phone Me

    Ziv Nakajima-Magen - Partner & Executive Manager, Asia-Pacific @ NTI - Japan Real-Estate Investment Property

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Quote:

    …Japanese corporations are compensating with bonuses and overtime, in order to satisfy shareholders and management

    …what I said was that the reason they are not raising base wages is to satisfy stake holders.

    When you make contradictory statements like this and then accuse me of misreading …… jeez! You should take up writing software manuals. Oh I forgot… your an ex IT manager. Well that explains it then… Silly me!

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