Viewing 20 posts - 1 through 20 (of 37 total)
  • Profile photo of LancehaterLancehater
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    @lancehater
    Join Date: 2008
    Post Count: 19

    When is the market in Brisbane going to,take off again?. The last 5 years the market has done nothing!

    Profile photo of Jamie MooreJamie Moore
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    @jamie-m
    Join Date: 2010
    Post Count: 5,069

    Some of my clients are currently active in the Brissy market. The reports I'm hearing is that competition is picking up and properties are being snapped up quite quickly.

    The Herron Todd White month in review for May has the Brisbane market it listed as being "at the start of recovery" – the report is here if you're interested – http://www.htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-In-Review-May-2013.pdf

    Cheers

    Jamie

    Jamie Moore | Pass Go Home Loans Pty Ltd
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    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    @nigel-kibel
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 1,425

    I agree with Jamie

    I think the market in Brisbane is still undervalued but a lot of it has to do with confidence. I feel that the market could be as much as 10% under market value. As confidence returns the market will lift. I am actively looking for a development project in Brisbane

    Nigel Kibel | Property Know How
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    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,681

    Any possibility of positive sentiment is likely to be rubbed out by a deteriorating economic picture over the next 2 quarters. You also have an election to contend with that doesn't promise anything but spending cuts, government layoffs and more austerity. You could be looking at a credit regrading next year  which would invariably increase govt borrowing costs and induce more contractionary spending.

    Our primary economic growth drivers are diminishing in a struggling global economy with nothing to replace it except govt stimulus if anything. If the dollar keeps falling you might see the large markets struggle as overseas investors pause or some prefer to liquidate and move to other markets. There's nothing good on the immediate horizon and I expect conditions to become even more difficult over the next 6 – 12 months

    Profile photo of Scott No MatesScott No Mates
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    @scott-no-mates
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 3,850

    Brisbane/GC are both markets which go gangbusters for a few years, plateau, drop then  plateau again.

    Profile photo of TheFinanceShopTheFinanceShop
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    @thefinanceshop
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 1,271

    Go west I say – Perth that is!

    TheFinanceShop | Elite Property Finance
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    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
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    TheFinanceShop wrote:
    Go west I say – Perth that is!

    Nope. There's a correction coming here big time over the next few  years. I wouldn't be surprised if the Perth market looses 10% between now and xmas.

    Profile photo of GeddoGeddo
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    @geddo
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 22

    Hi Freckle,

    I don't think anyone doubts your intelligence, or ability to source a supportive graph or two, but I am curious as to why you hang around a property site if you don't think it is a good investment. 

    I don't think property is as bad as you think. If you buy at the top of the the market in shares or commodities, I think you will be worse off due to their liquidity. You can dump your shares easier than property which we have seen before. House owners are more likely to hang on till things improve which makes them a more stable investment in my mind. 

    I certainly don't get 100% deals – more like 8 – 10%, which covers me. 

    To be down 40K on silver doesn't sound like a better investment to me, even if it does come off eventually! I'd prefer to sleep at night. Have you had any big losses?

    Cheers!

    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    @nigel-kibel
    Join Date: 2005
    Post Count: 1,425

    I dont always agree with Freckle and I think he is wrong about Brisbane. However I do agree with his comments about Perth. The market under about $850,000 is flying with properties selling withig 2 weeks of coming on the market. But if you look at many properties at say 1.5 million they are not really selling at all. That suggests that there is a confidence issue in the economy. Please Perth has always been a boom and bust city. To me this is not a market to buy into at present however Brisbane I believe may be as much as 10% under where it should be.

    Nigel Kibel | Property Know How
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    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
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    Geddo wrote:
    Hi Freckle,

    I don't think anyone doubts your intelligence, or ability to source a supportive graph or two, but I am curious as to why you hang around a property site if you don't think it is a good investment.

    Never said property as a class was a bad investment. The entry time for property is not now. Hasn't been for a few years now. I hold that view because to me the fundamentals that drive property in general are deteriorating and I hold the opinion that property will eventually see a substantial correction. It's taken much longer than I thought possible but it's on our doorstep now and the economic conditions suggest it's imminent. The time to buy will be soon but it's definitely not now.

    Quote:
    I don't think property is as bad as you think.

    Most don't. When things go wrong most people suffer.

    Quote:
    If you buy at the top of the the market in shares or commodities, I think you will be worse off due to their liquidity. You can dump your shares easier than property which we have seen before. House owners are more likely to hang on till things improve which makes them a more stable investment in my mind.

    Liquidity is an issue to some but it usually separates the investor from the speculator. Speculators like liquidity while investors rarely consider it. Shares give you a flexibility property doesn't but the rules are virtually the same. Blue chips provide stability, income and growth over the long term. Same characteristics as property.

    Quote:
    To be down 40K on silver doesn't sound like a better investment to me, even if it does come off eventually! I'd prefer to sleep at night. Have you had any big losses?

    Cheers!

    Your properties rise and fall in value but there's little to measure that on a day by day week by week basis. That's a false sense of security. In other words if I don't know todays actual value I'm alright. When a market moves against you your trapped with no way out. There is no asset class that is a sure bet and they all correct at some point.

    I've had plenty of losses. Part of the game. 

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
    Blocked
    @freckle
    Join Date: 2012
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    Rot usually sets in from the outside.

    I'm 70k south in Mandurah. The property I rent (5yr old 4/2/2) is on the market at 50k below cost and 50k above market. The agent is bringing someone through this morning which will be the first in almost 5 weeks. Similar property down the road has been on the market for over 6 months now. When we moved here Jul 12 properties where selling within 2 months.

    I was talking to the agent yesterday and mentioned the surge in retail vacancies down at the marina complex. He said retail vacancy had jumped along with light commercial and light industrial.  That's an ominous sign but it dovetails in with everything I'm seeing and hearing.

    WA's problem is it's largely a one trick pony and that's resources. Resource activity is contracting at a rate even I hadn't anticipated. It's taken everyone who monitors this stuff by surprise. Everyone is trying to adjust to this contraction but its happening that fast its literally crushing small business. 

    Perth hasn't woken up to this fact yet especially the general public who keep being feed the message all is well and we have everything under control BS. 

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 237

    Back to the Brisbane, I find that rents are becoming increasingly difficult to increase over last 12 months. Boarding houses are now been flat on rent for 24 months, top end property ($1000pw) are stagnant. Only middle priced housing still can go up some 2-3% this year (assuming that it was priced correctly in 2012).

    There seem to be inflow of amateur investors on the market, of late. Came across few people making offers on properties at listed price. One couple made offer over listed (owner occupiers). In both cases they overpaid. ROI at the moment is not making sense, you better off with money in the bank. Or renting instead of purchasing PPoR.

    On the other hand some properties spend over 6 months on the market with little action. Interestingly, many contracts fail on finance. I do not know if financial institutions become more difficult or buyers use it as the 'way out' option.

    I would support Freckle view on Brisbane. Cannot see any major upwards pressure drivers. It's all a mixed bag at the best. In my view, short term we are flat and mid term we will go down some.

    Let's sort.

    Positives:

    Pollution Growth

    Inflation (mild)

    Infrastructure projects completions

    Negatives:

    Unemployment on the rise (go and talk to employment agencies – not gov statistics)

    Wages increases are miniscule (in manufacturing sector anyway)

    Closing off immigration channels is on the cards

    People's debt levels are at elevated levels

    Cooling down of Australian Economy if a fact now that is gaining traction (see AUD/USD)

    Heaps of cheap NRAS style apartments coming on the market (everywhere in CBD)

    Profile photo of biggaz13biggaz13
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    @biggaz13
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 62

    Freckle

    How on earth have you made 1115 posts in 16 months????
    I decided against trawling through 1115 posts so I’ll ask here:

    In fact, I will re-ask Geddo’s question from above: Why do you hang around a property investing website when you state “the entry time for property is not now. Hasn’t been for years now”?

    I am confused by another comment you made: “Never said property as a class was a bad investment”. Then you go onto explain why property as a class is such a bad investment. Well, a bad investment until certain “fundamentals” have improved. Which fundamentals would you like to see improved before advising everyone to jump into the property investing marketplace??

    You made this interesting comment: “If the dollar keeps falling you might see the large markets struggle as overseas investors pause or some prefer to liquidate and move to other markets”. I was under the impression that if the A$ continue to fall then it would actually encourage international investment as investors will get more bang for their buck.

    You appear to expend a lot of energy advising people not to buy property as an asset class until fundamentals improve. What asset class do you advice people to enter for wealth creation?? If any?

    Flush. Oops. There goes the Perth market down the crapper. It might drift lower. It might not. Mandurah?? Is there a correlation between the Mandurah property market and the market in Perth??

    You state there will be a “substantial correction” in the value of properties in Australia. For this to happen Australians selling their property will have to accept a substantial loss if they sell. I suspect many Australians would rather hold the property than accept a substantial loss.

    I used to get this daily email: “Money Morning” and “The Daily Reckoning”. Wow. Some of the most negative financial news you could get every day in your inbox. The worldwide collapse was imminent. “BUY GOLD” they screamed (Silver was ok to). “SELL YOUR HOUSES – Market correction 30% – 60% around the corner”. Well that was back in 2010. Maybe one day their message will be vindicated. But not today. I couldn’t stand their negativity so I deleted the subscription.

    Go well Freckle of Mandurah.

    Profile photo of Karley12Karley12
    Participant
    @karley12
    Join Date: 2012
    Post Count: 4

    Hi all

    biggaz13 – I agree with the sentiment of your post. The Mandurah and Perth markets couldn't be more different – I have met very few people who want to live in Mandurah (for a variety of reasons) and this obviously equates to poor growth and in Mandurah's case, a decline from when everyone rushed in.

    I live 12km from the Perth CBD and most homes are sold before being advertised on the market – all at under 400K and renting for at least $350/week. This area is just starting to grow, and a very different picture to Mandurah!

    Profile photo of simplesimple
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    @simple
    Join Date: 2006
    Post Count: 237

    Karley12 – Welcome to the propertyinvesting! Some fresh blood is always welcome.

    First post and right on the hot topic of Perth market, supporting biggaz13 view? If I had so much luck today, I would go out and buy Gold Lotto ticket :)

    Profile photo of Jacqui MiddletonJacqui Middleton
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    @jacm
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 2,539

    Will I anger folks by stating what I figure is the obvious:  that top-end property has the farthest to fall in times of trouble?

    Jacqui Middleton | Middleton Buyers Advocates
    http://www.middletonbuyersadvocates.com.au
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    Profile photo of biggaz13biggaz13
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    @biggaz13
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 62

    JacM (1990 posts!!!!!! = Awesome) –

    I reckon that’s a pretty safe bet. During the good times, I also reckon the top-end property market will fly the highest.

    Profile photo of Jacqui MiddletonJacqui Middleton
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    @jacm
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 2,539

    Fair point biggaz.  As long as the war chest is sufficient to enable you to ride the peaks and troughs, all is well!

    Jacqui Middleton | Middleton Buyers Advocates
    http://www.middletonbuyersadvocates.com.au
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    VIC Buyers' Agents for investors, home buyers & SMSFs.

    Profile photo of Jacqui MiddletonJacqui Middleton
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    @jacm
    Join Date: 2009
    Post Count: 2,539

    1991 posts now.  Or should I say 1992 posts, because I am now making this post to honour the occasion hehe.

    Jacqui Middleton | Middleton Buyers Advocates
    http://www.middletonbuyersadvocates.com.au
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    VIC Buyers' Agents for investors, home buyers & SMSFs.

    Profile photo of biggaz13biggaz13
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    @biggaz13
    Join Date: 2011
    Post Count: 62

    JacM of 1992 posts. I’m rating your post with a thumbs up.
    If the pattern of the last 120 years holds true, and I reckon it will.
    The good times are not too far away.

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