All Topics / Help Needed! / Unemployment is rising steadily in VIC – Very Interesting!!! It looks like Victoria is going to face new challenges in 2013,

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  • Profile photo of JpcashflowJpcashflow
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    Unemployment is rising steadily in VIC – Very Interesting!!!

    It looks like Victoria is going to  face new challenges in 2013, in the last two weeks allot  of clients of mine who work in construction are facing heavy job losses.

    Most of the people I have talked to are based in Melbourne “west”, most people have said to me that they will most likely move to QLD Where there is a bit of construction work going on

    I wonder if people lease or sell homes in Melbourne West will their will be a influx of properties that are empty? I have noticed areas like Caroline Springs, Melton and Deer park have a high number homes for sale and rent.

    But also 600 jobs to go at shell once the sale goes through, today another 400 jobs at a company called BAE in Melbourne West( Williamstown) & a mate of mine got axed today at origin with 200 jobs to go and a mate of mine who works at BOEING in Tullamarine are facing the axe too.

    I believe that job losses are far outweighing the jobs creations in Melbourne and I know people will always say that people still need a roof “etc” but its amazing to see how many people from all ages and walks of life move in back with parents even if they have a big family, move in with other families etc.

    Its going to be very interesting the vic market but it makes me think if other people are moving to other states could their be a bit of a push in other states for properties?

    Jpcashflow | JP Financial Group
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    Profile photo of jmsracheljmsrachel
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    It’s the opposite for me. I live 15 mins From you and I’m Flat out with cabinet making to the point I can’t take any more work for the next 2 months. I agree with you in that job losses exceeds new jobs.

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Sold an aircraft engine to a guy over that way who builds horse stables. 2 years work ahead of him. Go figure.

    Profile photo of jmsracheljmsrachel
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    It's really strange. If i ask 20 tradies what their work schedule is like, 10 will say flat out and the other 10 will say it's really dead.

    Profile photo of jmsracheljmsrachel
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    Freckle wrote:
    Sold an aircraft engine to a guy over that way who builds horse stables. 2 years work ahead of him. Go figure.

    How did you come to own an aircraft engine??

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    jmsrachel wrote:
    Freckle wrote:
    Sold an aircraft engine to a guy over that way who builds horse stables. 2 years work ahead of him. Go figure.

    How did you come to own an aircraft engine??

    Used to have an aircraft. Bit a low flying around Manilya a few years back

    Profile photo of DWolfeDWolfe
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    Interesting…

    The latest figures on population are growth for Vic by 95000 people over the next year. (No sorry too busy to quote where from, use Google friends) and 350-400k population growth for OZ. Vic has the largest amount out of all the states. Might be a turn around coming?

    Supposedly Vic has also been in recession already for 9 mths (can't remember where that is from, it's not working for me today!) It's a tough gig, but you have to admit some tradies are flat out coz they are good, and some are slow coz they are not so good. Also I think it depends on your network as word of mouth can bring in a lot of jobs.

    Nice photo Freckle.

    D

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    Profile photo of jmsracheljmsrachel
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    Dwolfe are you saying I’m an exceptional tradie?

    Profile photo of Nigel KibelNigel Kibel
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    There are signs that the property markets are improving again in Victoria. I believe that 2013 will be a good year for investment and 2014 will be even better

    Nigel Kibel | Property Know How
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    Profile photo of jmsracheljmsrachel
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    Nigel Kibel wrote:
    There are signs that the property markets are improving again in Victoria. I believe that 2013 will be a good year for investment and 2014 will be even better

    I hope you are right!!! Although i am waiting for Freckle………

    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    If you could find some fundamentals to support the uplift then fine but they are sadly lacking so that leaves sentiment which is often fleeting. It's a market more suited to flippers and developers if you can get from wo to go in under 18 months. I'm wary of markets supported by sentiment, They tend to fall faster than they rise.

    The stars appear to be aligning for another round of GFC madness but on a much grander scale this time. I don't see us being as lucky as we were the last time. 

    For me I see Japan as our worst nightmare. Japan provides a huge amount of financing and liquidity in to SE Asian emerging economies. They along with China and S Korea soak up 48% of our exports. Japan's currency moves are a direct move against S Korea and Taiwan competitors so they're forced to join the currency war to stay in touch. That's making our exports in Yen and Won look extremely expensive. China's a whole other story but things are going from bad to worse there at the moment. 

    Vic is a manufacturing export lead economy for the most part so it's likely to cop the worst of the BS going on globally. Couple that with a decade of over building especially in units and I'm struggling to see Vic as an opportunity at this point in time. 

    Profile photo of JpcashflowJpcashflow
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    I work for a large shipping line and volumes have decreased, in fact four other shipping lines are co loading with us just to keep a float.

    These 4 shipping lines are considered the big Mammas of China and they are quiet, So we share our vessels which isnt a bad thing for us :)

    But sure tradies and other business are busy,  This is true, but the key question is how many business are actually get paid? allot of people spend more time chasing the money then acutally making the money.

     

    Me personally all this gloom and doom provides every one with a opportunity.  When things get tight the following happens:

    1) really good workers or business people will either thrive or at least survive in these conditions

    2) The lazy will struggle and not make it

    Nigel and I had a great conversation about this topic on the weekend and he made a really good valid point.

    When where in a BOOM allot of people wants to be a real estate agent or mortage broker "etc" because they feel like its easy money, and when your in a boom you dont need to work as hard for your money.

    But when things get tight, allot of people just struggle, A friend of mine is making more money in selling houses now then he did in a the boom times, he basically said less agents on the street = less compition

    Jpcashflow | JP Financial Group
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    Profile photo of FreckleFreckle
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    Jpcashflow wrote:
    I work for a large shipping line and volumes have decreased, in fact four other shipping lines are co loading with us just to keep a float.

    These 4 shipping lines are considered the big Mammas of China and they are quiet, So we share our vessels which isnt a bad thing for us :)

    BDI's taken a pasting over the last few years that's for sure. Germans have been bailing out some of their banks heavily into shipping. Shipping lines going bust left right and center. The big consumer binge is over I'm afraid. Now it remains to be seen how they mitigate all the debt overhang.

    Quote:
    But sure tradies and other business are busy,  This is true, but the key question is how many business are actually get paid? allot of people spend more time chasing the money then acutally making the money.

    I think busy is an overstatement. The vast majority are struggling. The payment question is a good point. The domino affect can be extremely damaging. Like ripples in a pond.

    The successful businesses tend to be those that have been around a while, have strong balance sheets, have developed extensive networks but more importantly have strong relationships that underpin workflow. Networks provide opportunity or exposure to business activity. Balance sheets enable a stronger competitive position and relationships usually mean preferential treatment.

     

    Quote:
    Me personally all this gloom and doom provides every one with a opportunity.  When things get tight the following happens:

    1) really good workers or business people will either thrive or at least survive in these conditions

    2) The lazy will struggle and not make it

    To a point. When you have major economic resets 99% feel some negative effect. The difference is those who have enough assets to survive with something to rebuild with. It becomes less about opportunity and more about harboring wealth to take advantage of opportunities after a correction.

    Quote:
    Nigel and I had a great conversation about this topic on the weekend and he made a really good valid point.

    When where in a BOOM allot of people wants to be a real estate agent or mortage broker "etc" because they feel like its easy money, and when your in a boom you dont need to work as hard for your money.

    The 'band wagon' or 'gold rush' affect. Everyone wants to get on. It's less about effort and more about greed as a motivator.

    Quote:
    But when things get tight, allot of people just struggle, A friend of mine is making more money in selling houses now then he did in a the boom times, he basically said less agents on the street = less compition

    This is where circumstance filters the better players/performers. It's like an endurance race. You soon see who are the stronger more capable players 

    Profile photo of Richard TaylorRichard Taylor
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    Tell you what if we get any more rain in Brisbane i am thinking of moving down South.

    That assumes you guys in Vic wil have me.

    Cheers

    Yours in Finance

    Richard Taylor | Mortgage Broker helping investors build their wealth thru property
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    0-40 Properties in a decade with a unencumbered portfolio value in excess of $40M. Ask me for a copy of my API Interview.

    Profile photo of JpcashflowJpcashflow
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    Any time Richard more then welcome lol 

    Just dont bring the rain with you…,

    Jpcashflow | JP Financial Group
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    Profile photo of Jacqui MiddletonJacqui Middleton
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    There will always be peaks and troughs over the years.  Ask yourself : if my tenants were unemployed, would they still be able to afford the rent on my property?  If not, then I guess your property would be exposed to risk during the troughs. 

    Jacqui Middleton | Middleton Buyers Advocates
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