- DOUGADCOCKParticipant@dougadcockJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 22
Everyone you talk to or every book you read talks about buying at the bottom of the market but how does one know when it is the bottom of the market, is there any books i can read or articles. Any guidance would be helpfullChrisA1Participant@chrisa1Join Date: 2011Post Count: 172
Are you asking about books/guidance about if we are currently at the bottom of the market, or property investment strategies in general??
Persistence is 'to keep on keeping on, no matter how hard the going may be'DOUGADCOCKParticipant@dougadcockJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 22
i would like to learn how to read the market so i know when the area is at the bottom of the cycle.ChrisA1Participant@chrisa1Join Date: 2011Post Count: 172
mmmm, bit out of my league…. you might be looking for the next boom town??
John Lindeman is a market researcher. His book – http://www.propertybooks.com.au/mastering_the_australian_housing_market might give you some insight??
Persistence is 'to keep on keeping on, no matter how hard the going may be'DerekMember@derekJoin Date: 2004Post Count: 3,544
Buying at the bottom of the market is a nice theory and it is relatively easy to say. The trouble is the bottom and top of a market are only really revealed after the event when statistics can be analysed in some detail. Sure there are some 'experts'' who claim that they can tell where the market is at any given time – trouble is seen their commentary wrong as often as I have seen it right. No-one rings a bell for the investors.
If you are looking at a shorter term buy and sell strategy then getting your timing more right, than wrong, is important. If you are looking at strategy that transcends more than one cycle then the issue of timing becomes less important.JpcashflowParticipant@jpcashflowJoin Date: 2007Post Count: 575
Freckle makes a good point reading the market from reading or taking classes won't help
its an art that must be learnt with time and practice
i have bought three different properties in two different cycles and still did ok with all three purchases
i sold two at the end of the boom but are you looking at a particular area?
Go to as many open homes and you feel how he market is traveling
even though I'm not looking at buying I still go to opens in Vic and I have notices it has been pretty quiet out there
prices are steel pretty flat and wouldn't be surprised if pricesfall lower
mite also interesting allot of people are loosing here jobs in Vic
Its going to be a very interesting couple of yearsFreckleBlocked@freckleJoin Date: 2012Post Count: 1,680
You have many different markets (and segments)
economic base (manufacturing, services etc)
and so it goes. There is no magic formula and there are no books on how pick a given time in a cycle. It's a collection of knowledge and experience from a wide range of sources. Your basically looking for trends in your particular market segment in a wider context and trying to literally guess which way and by how much things will change over time. It's an art rather than a science that can't simply be learnt from a bookJamie MooreParticipant@jamie-mJoin Date: 2010Post Count: 5,069
Not sure if it helps or not but Herron Todd White provide a monthly update that covers capital city markets and many large regional markets. In the report, they rate where they see these markets at the stage of the property cycle.
Page 45 of this report will give you an idea of what I'm taking about.
Obviously this should only be treated as one resource which is part of a greater due diligence process.